Category: 3. Business

Changes OPEC+ is making to its oil production quota system will likely spark a wave of upstream investments among members, particularly in low-cost Gulf producers, diminishing concerns of long-term supply shortages.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing nations, including Russia and Kazakhstan, collectively known as OPEC+, approved on Sunday a new mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, which will be used to set output baselines from 2027.

This may seem a highly technical matter. But it could, in theory, mark a welcome change from recent years’ turmoil that saw some members flagrantly exceed production quotas as OPEC de facto leader Saudi Arabia struggled to impose discipline, confounding the oil market.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the new mechanism will help to stabilise markets and reward those who invest in production. OPEC+ accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil supply of 106 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency.

First, it is important to understand the new Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) mechanism.

The capacity assessment will be done between January and September using a reputable U.S. auditor for 19 out of the 22 group members. It will involve a review of each country’s oilfields and infrastructure to assess how much oil it can bring on stream within 90 days and maintain for one year.

Among the three countries facing U.S. sanctions, Russia and Venezuela will use a non-U.S. auditor while Iran opted to set its baseline using an average production over the three months to October.

Members’ capacities will be approved in a November meeting, where OPEC+ will also agree on its 2027 output quotas, which will represent an equal percentage of capacity for each member. The MSC will be reviewed on an annual basis going forward.

A WAVE OF GULF INVESTMENTS

The system appears primed to spark a wave of investments among members wanting to increase their own production and revenue.

It nevertheless favours wealthy members that have low development and production costs such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Indeed, Gulf producers are already looking beyond near-term oversupply concerns and downplaying questions about future oil demand as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.

The UAE targets growing its production capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027 from 4.85 million bpd today, though there is speculation it could increase its capacity to as much as 6 million bpd. Its investments suggest that may well be the case.

Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC said on November 24 it plans to invest $150 billion over the next five years to expand operations. It also increased the UAE’s conventional oil reserve base by 6% to 120 billion barrels following new discoveries. ADNOC further seeks to unlock so-called unconventional shale reserves, which it estimates contain 22 billion barrels of oil.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, has a production capacity of 12 million bpd and by far the group’s largest spare capacity, which reached 2.2 million bpd in October, 60% of total OPEC+ spare capacity, according to the IEA. The country’s national oil company Aramco 2222 extracts oil at $2 per barrel, its CEO Amin Nasser recently said, among the lowest in the world.

Aramco, whose capital expenditure is set to reach $52 billion to $55 billion this year, will bring two new fields on stream by year-end, adding 550,000 bpd of production capacity, it said in its third-quarter results.

Kuwait and Iraq could also now seek to accelerate investment plans.

Kuwait aims to increase capacity to 4 million bpd by 2035 from 2.9 million bpd today, based on IEA figures. Iraq is trying to attract foreign investors, including BP BP. and Exxon Mobil XOM, to boost its production capacity by around 1 million bpd to 6 million bpd by 2028.

SOME OPEC+ MEMBERS TO STRUGGLE

The new system, however, puts members whose production is concentrated in more expensive geological structures or offshore, such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan, at a disadvantage as they will require more time and money in order to grow capacity.

Russia, Venezuela and Iran may also struggle to increase investments and production capacity due to international sanctions that severely restrict supplies of vital drilling equipment and access to Western technologies.
The new investments will nevertheless serve OPEC’s intrinsic goal of growing its market share, in particular after losing ground in recent years as production in the U.S., Brazil, Canada and elsewhere soared.

The spending will also ease growing concerns that the oil industry could face a supply crunch towards the end of the decade and beyond due to lower global spending and the slowdown in production in U.S. shale basins and elsewhere.

THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WEAKNESSES

The new capacity measurement system appears more equitable and transparent, offering members and external market participants a better understanding of OPEC+ policies.

Yet it still has weak spots. For one thing, members will likely still be able to produce and export more than their stated quota, as some, including Kazakhstan and the UAE, appear to have done in recent years.

Furthermore, some members will struggle to grow capacity and production due to sanctions and conflict, creating tensions with other countries that will be able to gain market share.

But overall, OPEC+’s drive will encourage further investments in the oil market that could lead to increased supplies and keep prices relatively low.
Source: Reuters

Budget 2025 signals that the federal government will use government contracting for defence, national interest and national security infrastructure projects, and general infrastructure projects, as a core tool to counter the economic impacts of global trade disruptions and tariffs. Central to this approach is implementing a robust Buy Canadian Policy, which places a strong emphasis on prioritizing Canadian suppliers, goods, and services in federal contracting, subject to limited exceptions.

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Three areas of increased spending 

Defence spending 

Budget 2025 outlines a multi-year plan to strengthen Canada’s defence capabilities and build a domestic defence industrial base. The budget states Canada will meet NATO’s 2% defence spending target this year and will fulfill the NATO Defence Investment Pledge by 2035. Key initiatives include a new Defence Industrial Strategy, a Defence Investment Agency to streamline procurement, and targeted investments in advanced technologies and critical sectors. These measures are designed to create opportunities for Canadian manufacturers and suppliers across industries.

For more information, refer to our article on Canada’s New Defence Policy. 

National interest and national security infrastructure projects  

Through the Building Canada Act and the new Major Projects Office (MPO), the federal government will fast‑track the development of infrastructure projects deemed to be in Canada’s national interest. Budget 2025 identifies these “national interest infrastructure projects” as typical transportation, energy, communications, and public‑safety projects deemed vital because they strengthen Canada’s sovereignty and resilience, provide economic benefits, advance the interests of Indigenous Peoples, and contribute to Canada’s climate goals of clean growth. 

Generally, these projects involve some degree of civil works, including the construction or expansion of ports, airports, rail and road corridors, northern all‑weather routes, and energy infrastructure. In the coming months and years, suppliers will be able to bid on significant national interest projects, alone or as part of a consortium, including the following announced nation-building infrastructure projects:   

• Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor¹
• Critical minerals projects, including Canada Nickel’s Crawford Project, Nouveau Monde Graphite’s Matawinie Mine and Northcliff Resources’ Sisson Mine²
• Iqaluit Nukkiksautiit Hydro Project³
• Arctic Economic and Security Corridor⁴
• Port of Churchill Plus⁵
• Alto High-Speed Rail (Ontario–Quebec Corridor)⁶
• Energy projects, including Pathways Plus and Wind West Atlantic Energy⁷

Budget 2025 also creates new funding vehicles targeted at national security-related trade infrastructure. The following funds will be deployed through competitive procurements led by Transport Canada and partnering sponsors, covering planning, design, engineering, construction, and digital systems: 

• Trade Diversification Corridors Fund: $5 billion over seven years to Transport Canada for port, airport, rail, road, and digital trade infrastructure across priority regions (e.g., Great Lakes–St. Lawrence and West Coast), including projects such as additional container port designations (e.g., Quebec City and Hamilton) to catalyze investment and increase supply chain resilience.
• Arctic Infrastructure Fund: $1 billion over four years for major northern transportation assets with dual civilian military applications (airports, seaports, highways, and all season roads), supported by additional funding to accelerate northern regulatory processes in partnership with Indigenous governments and communities.

Budget 2025 lastly invests in national systems that underpin safety, security, and continuity of operations. For government contractors, this translates into tenders for systems integration, civil works, and technology upgrades projects including the modernization of the Meteorological Service of Canada’s high performance computing platform, renewal of Canada’s National Public Alerting, and targeted airport safety and dual use upgrades through the Airports Capital Assistance Program.

General infrastructure projects 

Beyond national interest and national security-oriented builds, the budget advances broad infrastructure and housing programs designed to mobilize private capital and increase domestic demand for Canadian inputs. Measures include the new Build Communities Strong Fund, capital increases and authorities for the Canada Infrastructure Bank, and the Build Canada Homes agency to scale homebuilding and industrialize modern methods of construction. The government’s new Capital Budgeting Framework reorients fiscal planning toward long lived productive assets and third party capital formation, with annual capital investments rising substantially over the forecast horizon.

Buy Canadian policy

Scope and institutional reach 

Budget 2025 confirms the importance of the Buy Canadian Policy as a lever to stimulate domestic production, reinforce strategic industries, and crowd in private investment. The policy intends to achieve this objective by requiring the government to move from “best efforts” to an obligation for the government to select Canadian suppliers by default, wherever possible. Budget 2025 indicates the Buy Canadian Policy will likely apply across federal departments, agencies, and Crown corporations, leveraging all public spending to strengthen Canadian supply chains. 

To date, the government has not published the specifics of the Buy Canadian Policy, which replaces the Interim Policy on government procurement.⁸ However, on November 26, 2025, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced the policy will prioritize Canadian materials in all contracts over $25 million. It will also apply to all Government of Canada grants and contributions programs, including federal infrastructure funding programs.⁹

The PMO’s announcement further indicates the Buy Canadian Policy will be focused on supply chains: while it does not require the contracted supplier to be Canadian, it will require Canadian steel, aluminum, and softwood lumber when the value exceeds $250,000.

How will buy Canadian be implemented?   

Budget 2025 also indicates the government will pursue regulatory amendments to ensure buy Canadian aspects of federal procurement are not subject to review by the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT), while continuing to respect Canada’s trade obligations and the proper use of national security exceptions provided for in applicable agreements. 

The government has not yet released these regulatory amendments, but they are expected in the coming weeks. It is unclear how the government’s proposal to limit CITT review of procurements for buy Canadian issues will address the concurrent jurisdiction of Canadian courts to entertain judicial review or actions for damages relating to the fairness of procurement processes.  

Practical implications for Canadian suppliers

Budget 2025’s combination of a strengthened Buy Canadian Policy, large defence and national security infrastructure spending, and streamlined major‑project approvals expands opportunities for Canadian companies not only in relation to core defence spending but also in relation to national interest and national security infrastructure projects.  

To take advantage of the initiatives announced in Budget 2025, suppliers should monitor regulatory amendments and program‑specific procurement guidance that will clarify how the Buy Canadian Policy will be implemented.

The Luxury Line Reveals Two Chef-Driven Passion Projects That Mark a Bold New Chapter in the Line’s Epicurean Evolution: La Table par Maîtres Cuisiniers de France and Nikkei Kitchen

MIAMI, Dec. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Oceania Cruises^®, the world’s leading culinary- and destination-focused luxury cruise line, has unveiled two brand-new culinary concepts aboard Oceania Sonata, the first vessel in its next generation Sonata Class launching in August 2027, during a press conference at ILTM Cannes.

Debuting aboard Oceania Sonata will be the most exclusive fine-dining restaurant at sea, La Table par Maîtres Cuisiniers de France, and Nikkei Kitchen, an evening venue focused on a vibrant fusion of Peruvian flavors and refined Japanese culinary techniques and tastes.

La Table will be the only restaurant at sea to be launched with the seal of approval by the fabled Maîtres Cuisiniers de France (Master Chefs of France, MCF), a globally revered institution dedicated to promoting the French culinary arts.

The partnership with MCF to launch La Table is a world-first for a cruise line and further deepens the relationship between the line and this prestigious association. Oceania Cruises’ two Executive Culinary Directors, Chefs Alexis Quaretti and Eric Barale, have both been inducted into its glittering echelons, making this the only cruise line in the world to have two MCF members overseeing its culinary program.

La Table will seat just 18 guests and offer an intimate and elegant dining experience, featuring a rotation of exquisite menus which will be created by Chefs Quaretti and Barale in tandem with a selection of specially invited Master Chefs of France from around the world. La Table will also be the venue for the reprisal of Oceania Cruises’ famed Dom Pérignon Experience, a six-course tasting menu paired with three vintage Champagnes.

Nikkei Kitchen will join La Table as a new culinary experience aboard Oceania Sonata, bringing guests the chance to indulge in dishes inspired by this intriguing and ever-evolving culinary movement. Born from the blending of Peruvian ingredients and Japanese technique which traces its origins to the late 19th century, when Japanese immigrants settled in Peru and began adapting traditional Japanese recipes with native Peruvian ingredients, Nikkei cuisine is identified through distinctive dishes marked by fresh seafood, bright citrus, soy-based sauces and spicy peppers.

Working alongside Chefs Quaretti and Barale on the development of the menu for Nikkei Kitchen is Chef Gustavo Sugay, who brings more than 20 years of experience in preparing this dynamic cuisine. Chef Sugay has worked alongside the Oceania Cruises team to bring a collection of 12 innovative Nikkei dishes to the line’s signature pan-Asian restaurant, Red Ginger, to great guest acclaim, in the past 12 months.

The menu at Nikkei Kitchen aboard Oceania Sonata will celebrate the time-honored customs of both Peruvian and Japanese cultures while simultaneously embracing experimentation, an ethos that aligns perfectly with Oceania Cruises. Nikkei Kitchen’s bright and airy interior, complete with a modern, open kitchen, will echo the fresh and light dishes served each evening.

“Oceania Sonata represents an incredible opportunity to reimagine the future of our culinary program, while still offering the culinary concepts our guests know and love,” said Jason Montague, Chief Luxury Officer of Oceania Cruises. “La Table and Nikkei Kitchen are emblematic of what sets Oceania Cruises apart, thanks to our ability to pair world-class culinary talent with the creative freedom that results in unforgettable dining experiences. These new culinary concepts reflect our continued commitment to innovation, and our commitment to serve The Finest Cuisine at Sea.”

Chef Quaretti commented: “These restaurants are not just simply new onboard venues; they are the embodiment of Chef Barale’s and my shared dedication to our culinary craft, and we are so excited to share more about these special experiences in the coming months. La Table has allowed us to create a dining experience that honors the heritage of French gastronomy, a cuisine that we are passionate about, and propels it forward. With the addition of Nikkei Kitchen, we’re able to celebrate bold, global flavors in unexpected, fresh ways.”

La Table will be a reservations-only venue limited to 18 guests per evening and a wine experience surcharge will apply. Nikkei Kitchen will be a capacity-controlled experience that is part of the line’s always-included specialty dining options, available on a first-come basis with no reservations required. Additional details of these two extraordinary new concepts, including menus, will be revealed next year.

In addition to La Table and Nikkei Kitchen, Oceania Sonata will feature ten best-in-class culinary experiences, which have become synonymous with Oceania Cruises, including the elegant Grand Dining Room, as well as signature specialty dining venues Jacques, the line’s sophisticated French restaurant; pan-Asian Red Ginger; Polo Grill steakhouse; and Toscana, serving Italian specialties.

Marking the ninth vessel in the Oceania Cruises fleet, Oceania Sonata will be the first of four 1,390-guest ships in the new Sonata Class. Set to debut in August 2027, the new ship will be the most spacious and amenity-rich to date, with 30% of all accommodations composed of suites. A true masterpiece of design, she will deliver a symphony of unforgettable experiences at sea, anchored by the brand’s hallmark passion for gastronomy and its legacy of serving The Finest Cuisine at Sea^®.

For additional information on Oceania Cruises’ exquisitely crafted cuisine and expertly refined travel experiences, visit OceaniaCruises.com, call 855-OCEANIA, or speak with a professional travel advisor.

About Oceania Cruises
Oceania Cruises^® is the world’s leading culinary- and destination-focused luxury cruise line. The line’s eight small, luxurious ships carry a maximum of 1,250 guests and feature The Finest Cuisine at Sea^® and destination-rich itineraries that span the globe. Expertly curated travel experiences are available aboard the designer-inspired, small ships, which call on more than 600 marquee and boutique ports in more than 100 countries on seven continents, on voyages that range from seven to more than 200 days. Oceania Cruises® has four Sonata Class ships on order scheduled for delivery in 2027, 2029, 2032, and 2035. Oceania Cruises^® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH). To learn more, visit www.nclhltd.com.

About Maîtres Cuisiniers de France
Founded more than 70 years ago, the Maîtres Cuisiniers de France is one of the world’s most prestigious gastronomic associations, dedicated to upholding the excellence, creativity and heritage of French gastronomy.

Membership is by invitation only and awarded to chefs recognized for exceptional mastery, innovation and unwavering adherence to the highest standards.

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SOURCE Oceania Cruises

Introduction

Brief alcohol intervention is an umbrella term for a variety of interventions that are characterized by limited intensity or duration, and the common goal of motivating recipients to reduce their alcohol consumption. Examples encompass counseling, advice, and motivational feedback, which can be delivered face-to-face or remotely through digital technologies. There is clear evidence that brief interventions in general can reduce alcohol use in adults who exceed low-risk drinking limits [-]. This also applies to interventions that deliver automatically generated, personalized motivational feedback [-]. The use of digital technologies such as expert system software, that is, computer programs that automatically evaluate individual information and compile tailored feedback based on a set of predefined rules [], enables the provision of highly individualized and motivation-enhancing feedback in a reliable and resource-efficient manner []. The feedback itself may be delivered web-based [], through apps [], short messages [], letters [], or a combination thereof [], whereas the common core is a digitalized expert system.

Crucial questions remain concerning the applicability of brief alcohol interventions such as personalized motivational feedback to the broader population. Low-risk drinking limits [ ] imply a threshold below which the risk of disease or premature death is marginal and considered acceptable. Therefore, low-risk drinkers were virtually not represented in the brief intervention trials to date.

However, studies emerging in recent years challenge the common practice of excluding them from interventions to reduce alcohol use. These studies revealed that methodological problems (eg, misclassification and uncontrolled confounding) that bias drinking risk estimates downward were common in past research, suggesting that the risk associated with low-risk alcohol intake may be greater than previously estimated [-]. Even minimal drinking amounts have been linked to an increased risk of adverse brain and cardiovascular outcomes, as well as prevalent cancers [-]. The large proportion of low-risk drinkers in the population might imply high numbers of cases of disease and death below previously recommended thresholds for at-risk drinking [], which are neither marginal nor acceptable. Therefore, the greatest impact on health can be made by addressing alcohol use in the population as a whole. Accordingly, the latest (inter)national drinking guidelines do not differentiate between low-risk and at-risk alcohol consumption anymore [-].

There is a paucity of evidence regarding the long-term effects of brief alcohol interventions. Only very few studies included in the most recently published systematic reviews and meta-analyses investigated treatment effects after more than 1 year [,-]. The impact of low-threshold brief interventions may not only unfold in the weeks directly following the intervention. It may take time before the applied behavior change techniques affect people’s motivation and ultimately, their behavior [,,]. The most influential theories of health behavior change posit that intention is the best predictor of actual change [-]. However, the promotion of motivation to change does not guarantee a healthier lifestyle, as is well-documented in the intention-behavior gap []. Individuals may reside in a motivational state, contemplating the idea of drinking less alcohol, for a prolonged period of time before an actual change in alcohol consumption manifests itself, or possibly never does. Translated to the prevention context, the effects of brief alcohol interventions may require time to become measurable. To provide an example, reflecting on the pros and cons of drinking, re-evaluating this decisional balance from time to time, eventually setting the goal of drinking less, as well as reaching this goal might be a protracted process [,].

The burden of alcohol-related harm is unequally distributed in the general population, with certain groups, such as those with low levels of education, experiencing disproportionately high levels of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality [-]. Although the mechanisms underlying this so-called alcohol harm paradox are not well understood yet [], reducing alcohol-attributable social inequalities is a fundamental public health goal. Alcohol prevention efforts should therefore be systematically evaluated for their equity impact [], ie, their ability to reduce (positive impact), maintain (neutral impact), or increase (negative impact) health-related social inequalities. On the one hand, lower-educated groups are less likely to accept an offered lifestyle intervention [,]. On the other hand, there is considerable evidence that brief interventions are at least as beneficial for alcohol users with low as they are for those with higher socioeconomic status [,,]. Regarding the brief alcohol intervention investigated in this study, evidence after 12 months suggested that alcohol users with lower school education benefited, while those with higher school education did not []. An important question is whether this positive equity impact could be sustained over a longer period of time.

In this study, a general population sample of adults who reported any alcohol use in the past year received either computer-generated individualized feedback or assessment only. No clear evidence of efficacy was observed after 1 year []. However, the intervention was found to reduce drinking among low-risk drinkers 6 months after enrollment []. Given these promising findings after 6 months against the lack of evidence regarding the differential efficacy of brief alcohol interventions in subgroups with different drinking patterns, in particular, those below low-risk drinking limits, we aimed to further explore how intervention effects might differ between low-risk and at-risk drinkers.

The first aim of this study was to compare the change in self-reported alcohol use between the intervention and control groups from baseline to 3 and 4 years after study start. Based on increasing effects of a similar intervention after 2 years in German hospital inpatients [,], we expected lower alcohol use in participants randomized to the intervention compared to the control group. The second aim was to explore to what extent the intervention effects, after 3 and 4 years, were moderated by alcohol use severity and school education.

Methods

Study Design

This paper reports 4-year outcome data from the extension of the 2-arm randomized controlled trial, “Testing a proactive expert system intervention to prevent and to quit at-risk alcohol use” (PRINT), which was prospectively registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00014274, date of registration: March 12, 2018) []. The trial protocol can be found in a study by Baumann et al []. Primary and secondary outcome data after 12 months have been published elsewhere []. The CONSORT-EHEALTH (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials of Electronic and Mobile Health Applications and Online Telehealth) guidelines can be found in .

Participants and Procedure

Recruitment and Randomization

The sample was recruited between April 2018 and June 2018 at the municipal registry office in Greifswald, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. Study assistants proactively approached each person who appeared in the waiting area and asked them to participate in a short health survey. The survey questions were answered on tablet computers provided by study staff. Visitors to the registry office had to be aged between 18 and 64 years, cognitively and physically able, and have sufficient language and literacy skills to be eligible. People were also excluded if they had already participated in a previous visit or if they worked at the research institute conducting the study.

The survey included screening questions to determine whether respondents were eligible. Those who reported any alcohol consumption in the past year were given detailed information by the study assistants. Individuals without a permanent address or telephone number were excluded. Those who provided written informed consent were randomized to an intervention or a control group. Participants were randomized by tablet computers in a 1:1 allocation ratio based on a random number table and individuals as units in a simple randomization procedure.

Blinding

Participants were blinded to their group assignment during recruitment at the registry office. After receiving the intervention or not, participants were aware whether they belonged to the intervention or control group. Study assistants were blinded to the allocation sequence during randomization and remained blinded to the participants’ group affiliation throughout the trial.

Intervention Group

Participants in the intervention group received feedback letters at baseline, at 3 and 6 months, described in more detail in a study by Baumann et al []. A translated and annotated example feedback letter can be found in . For the intervention group, participants had to provide self-report data on the tablet computers during the recruitment in the registry office (baseline), and via computer-assisted telephone interviews (after 3 and 6 mo). The self-reported data were then processed and evaluated by a computer expert system that constituted the digital core of the intervention. The expert system software contained a comprehensive knowledge base of population data for normative comparisons and a large set of predefined rules that enabled the feedback to be tailored to the participants’ sex and age, their alcohol use risk level, as determined by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) [] and AUDIT-C [], and their motivational stage of change according to the transtheoretical model of behavior change. The language and provision of feedback were based on the principles of motivational interviewing []. Once participants entered their data, the expert system automatically compiled individualized feedback letters.

All letters contained recommendations that there is no such thing as risk-free alcohol consumption. They also provided personalized normative feedback on the average amount of alcohol consumed per week and the frequency of heavy episodic drinking (defined as drinking ≥4 alcohol drinks for women and ≥5 for men on a single occasion). The intervention letters for low-risk drinkers (AUDIT-C score <4 for women and <5 for men) aimed at reinforcing participants for their low consumption pattern.

The intervention letters for at-risk drinkers (AUDIT-C score ≥4 for women and ≥5 for men) provided individualized feedback based on the transtheoretical model of behavior change []. It covered (1) the participants’ motivational stage of change; (2) their decisional balance, which refers to how they considered the pros and cons of their alcohol use; (3) their self-efficacy, which is their confidence in abstaining from alcohol in different situations; and (4) their engagement in prespecified strategies or behaviors that drive progression through the motivational stages, known as cognitive and behavioral processes of change. In addition, at-risk drinkers received feedback on the risks for negative consequences that may result from their drinking.

The intervention letters for those with probable alcohol use disorder (AUD; AUDIT score ≥20) were similar to those for at-risk drinkers with two exceptions. First, the use of professional treatment was encouraged. Second, they were given feedback about negative consequences that they had already experienced.

The intervention letters at 3 and 6 months were amplified by intra-individual comparisons, indicating how the participants had progressed or changed since the last feedback. To receive the full intervention, trial participants were required to provide self-report data in computer-assisted telephone interviews at 3 and 6 months, respectively. These were used by the expert system software to automatically generate the intervention letters.

Control Group

The control group received assessment only, that is, they were asked to provide the same self-report data at baseline, 3, and 6 months as the intervention group. However, the control group did not receive any feedback.

Follow-Up Assessments

Follow-up data were collected by study staff after 12 months (April 2019 to June 2019), 36 months (April 2021 to June 2021), and 48 months (April 2022 to June 2022) using standardized, computer-assisted telephone interviews. If the participants could not be reached by telephone after 10 contact attempts, questionnaires were sent by email or mail with up to 2 reminders. To ensure high retention rates, follow-ups were announced beforehand.

Ethical Considerations

The trial was approved by the ethics committees of University Medicine Greifswald (BB 053/19) and TU Dresden (SR-EK-272062020). All participants provided written informed consent and were compensated with 2 vouchers (each valued at €5 [US $5.8]), one at baseline and one after 12 months. In addition, those who provided long-term follow-up data received up to 2 vouchers (each valued at €5 [US $5.8]) after 36 and 48 months, respectively. After completion of the follow-up interviews after 48 months, the data were deidentified by removing the pseudonym, thus ensuring that the dataset used for statistical analysis did not contain any identifying participant information.

Measures

Outcome

Outcome was a change in the number of drinks per week from baseline to the follow-ups after 36 and 48 months. Participants were asked, “How often did you have an alcoholic drink in the past 30 days?” (never or once or 2‐3 times per wk or ≥ 4 times per wk) and “How many alcoholic drinks did you typically have on a drinking day?” (definition of an alcoholic drink was 0.25‐0.3 l beer, 0.1‐0.15 l wine or sparkling wine, or 4 cl spirits or liquor). To determine the number of alcoholic drinks per week, frequency (drinking days in the past 30 d) was multiplied by the quantity (drinks per drinking day), divided by 4.25 (number of weeks in a month), and rounded down to the nearest integer.

Moderators

Alcohol use severity was measured with the AUDIT []. Its short form, the AUDIT-C [] comprising the first 3 AUDIT items, was used to define at-risk drinking. Participants were categorized as at-risk drinkers if women had an AUDIT-C [] sum score of ≥4, and men of ≥5 []. Sum scores <4 (women) and 5 (men) indicated low-risk drinking. Participants who had an AUDIT score of ≥20 were categorized as possible AUD. School education (≤9 or 10-11 or ≥12 y of schooling) was derived from participants’ self-reported highest general educational degree at baseline. Due to a small number of participants with possible AUD (8/1646, 0.49%) and with ≤9 years of school education (101/1646, 6.14%), these participants were merged with at-risk drinkers and those with 10 to 11 years of school education, respectively.

Covariates

Sex, age (y), employment status (full-time employed or part-time employed or in education or unemployed or other) were assessed at baseline via self-report. Participants were also asked whether they were currently in a relationship (yes or no), how many portions of fruit and vegetables they ate on a typical day, how much time they spent on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity on a typical weekday and weekend day, respectively, and how many cigarettes they smoked on a typical day.

Sample Size Calculation

The sample size calculation for the PRINT trial was based on a hypothesized 15% difference between intervention (expected average of 8.5 alcoholic drinks per week) and control group (expected average of 10 alcoholic drinks per week) at the 12-month follow-up [], derived from the results of 41 alcohol surveys []. The count outcome was expected to follow a negative binomial distribution with a dispersion parameter of 1.0. Based on 80% power, 5% significance level, and 20% drop-out rate from baseline to the 12-month follow-up, the planned sample size was 1648. After receiving renewal funding for long-term follow-ups, 1581 out of 1646 (96.05% of the total sample) participants still had an active consent to be contacted for additional follow-up interviews.

Statistical Analysis

Data were analyzed using Stata (version 18.0; StataCorp LLC) [] and latent growth curve modeling in Mplus version 8.8 []. Following the intention-to-treat principle, the models were calculated including all enrolled participants (N=1646) using full information maximum likelihood estimation with robust SEs. The change in self-reported drinks per week was captured by latent growth factors (). Preliminary analyses revealed that negative binomial models as planned in the study protocol [] did not fit the data due to a dispersion parameter of zero. Therefore, the growth models were calculated using the Poisson distribution. Rescaled likelihood ratio tests indicated that a cubic model with the variance of the cubic factor constrained to zero best represented the growth trajectory over time. Regressing the study group on the latent growth factors allowed us to calculate net changes in drinks per week for the intervention and the control group as well as their difference, expressed as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CI and P values. Bayes factors (BFs) [] were computed using a BF calculator [], assuming a half-normal distribution with an expected intervention effect of 15% []. BF values below 0.33 were considered as evidence against, values above 3 as evidence for the hypothesized intervention effect, and values in between as data insensitivity [].

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Unadjusted and adjusted growth models were calculated, controlling for baseline covariates that were associated with participation in the follow-up assessments after 36 and 48 months. To this end, 2 logistic regression models were calculated to predict follow-up nonparticipation after 36 and 48 months, respectively (attrition analysis), using baseline information such as sex, age, school education, employment status, relationship status, drinking level, smoking, and study group. In addition, 2 sensitivity analyses are reported in . Poisson regression models using multiple imputation to account for missing follow-up data, as well as a pattern mixture model to consider that data might be missing not at random (MNAR).

Finally, it was tested whether intervention efficacy was moderated by alcohol use severity or school education at baseline. Interaction terms between study group and alcohol risk level, and between study group and school education were introduced into the model. Interaction effects are reported as IRRs with 95% CIs. Moderation analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics (sex, age, employment, and relationship status) and health behaviors (fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, and smoking) at baseline.

Results

Sample Characteristics

Of the 2462 eligible persons in the registry office waiting area, 1646 (66.86%) participated in the trial (). The sample (920/1646, 55.89% women) had a mean age of 31.0 (SD 10.8) years. The majority had ≥12 years of school education (1072/1646, 65.13%) and were full-time employed (689/1646, 41.86%) or part-time employed (358/1646, 21.75%). According to the AUDIT-C, 1085 (65.92%) participants reported low risk and 553 (33.59%) at-risk drinking at baseline (). As reported in a study by Enders et al [], trial participants were more likely to be younger and report low-risk drinking compared to nonparticipants.

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Intervention Adherence

Out of 815 participants in the intervention group, 615 (75.5%) received the complete intervention consisting of 3 individualized feedback letters; 103 (12.6%) participants received 2, and 94 (11.5%) received 1 of 3 intervention letters, respectively. The primary reason for nonadherence was that participants could not be reached for the assessments, on which the intervention letters were based.

Follow-Up Participation

Participation for the follow-up assessments at 36 and 48 months was 65.2% (1074/1646) and 59.2% (975/1646), respectively (). Nonparticipation in the follow-up at 36 months was associated with younger age (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, 95% CI 0.96‐0.98; P<.001) and a lower level of school education (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26‐0.44; P<.001). Baseline smokers (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.62‐2.67; P<.001) and at-risk drinkers (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.04‐1.70; P=.024) were more likely to drop out at 36 months. Nonparticipation at 48 months was also associated with younger age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96‐0.98; P<.001), a lower level of school education (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.25‐0.42; P<.001), and not being in a relationship at baseline (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59‐0.95; P=.016). Baseline smokers (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.61‐2.63; P<.001) and participants who were unemployed compared to full-time employed (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.15‐4.48; P=.018) were more likely to drop out at 48 months. At-risk drinkers at baseline also tended to be more likely to drop out at 48 months, but this was not statistically significant (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.93‐1.50; P=.180).

Intervention Efficacy

No group differences were found regarding the change in alcoholic drinks per week from baseline to 36 months (). BFs tended to indicate evidence for the null, that is, no difference between groups, but remained in the range where the data are to be considered insensitive. At 48 months, the unadjusted growth model revealed a decrease in weekly alcohol consumption in the control group and no change in the intervention group. This difference was statistically significant (IRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05‐1.57; P=.015) and remained after adjustment for baseline covariates (IRR 1.27, 95% CI 1.06‐1.54; P=.012). BFs indicated strong evidence against the hypothesized intervention effect.

Sensitivity Analyses

The results of the Poisson regression models using multiply imputed outcome data were consistent with the results of the latent growth models (). The results of the pattern mixture models were associated with a high degree of uncertainty and suggested no group differences at 36 and 48 months ().

Moderation Analyses

There were no group differences between low-risk and at-risk drinkers in the change in alcoholic drinks per week from baseline to 36 and 48 months (; IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66‐1.35 and IRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.59‐1.23, respectively). There were also no group differences between participants with <12 years and those with ≥12 years of school education in the change in alcoholic drinks per week from baseline to 36 and 48 months (; IRR 0.73, 95% CI 0.47‐1.12 and IRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.48‐1.20, respectively). Thus, intervention efficacy was not moderated by alcohol-related risk level or school education at baseline.

Discussion

The data of this randomized controlled trial using a general population sample of alcohol users showed no evidence of effects of individualized feedback based on a computer expert system after 4 years. Unexpectedly, we observed drinking reductions in the control group and no change in the intervention group 4 years after study start. Long-term intervention effects were not moderated by alcohol use severity or school education.

It is puzzling and somewhat paradoxical that individualized feedback might have produced potentially negative long-term effects, considering that (1) there was no difference between study groups after 1 [] and 3 years; (2) the intervention was designed according to the principles of motivational interviewing [], using benevolent and appreciative language to address the participants’ motivation and beliefs about their alcohol use; (3) preventive intervention are usually assumed to have few risks; and (4) evidence on the existence of adverse and unintended effects of brief alcohol interventions is scarce [].

Among the studies included in the meta-analyses and reviews published in the last years [,,,,-], only 1 trial was identified that reported potentially adverse effects of a brief intervention targeting alcohol use []. After 3 and 6 months, the proportion of high-risk drinkers in a sample of patients with tuberculosis in South Africa decreased more strongly in the control group (treatment as usual) than in the brief counseling intervention group []. However, comparability appears to be very limited due to differences in study characteristics. The almost complete lack of studies reporting unintended brief intervention effects may be due to publication bias or to the fact that brief interventions usually operate at such a low motivational threshold that adverse effects seem unlikely. This makes it all the more important to disentangle the long-term effects mentioned earlier.

There are at least 3 possible explanations for our findings. First, the feedback provided in the intervention letters may not have had the desired effect, or even an opposite effect for some participants. Two-thirds of the sample were low-risk drinkers, a group that has been largely absent from brief intervention trials to date. The feedback may have been insufficiently tailored to the needs of this group. The motivational processes involved in reducing alcohol consumption may differ for different subgroups of drinkers. For instance, personalized normative feedback assumes that people underestimate their drinking in relation to their peers []. This may not be the case for all members of our population-based sample, which included a multitude of drinking patterns. Rather than enhancing the motivation to drink less, the feedback may have provided some participants with a form of justification for their drinking. If that is the case, future interventions may better omit risk levels such as low-risk or at-risk drinking that are no longer supported by evidence [-]. Second, participation in the follow-up assessment after 4 years was the lowest in the trial (59%) and selective. Although our analysis strategy can deal with data missing at random [], the possibility of systematic bias due to data not missing at random can never be completely ruled out []. Incorporating nonignorable missingness into latent growth models is based on untestable assumptions and can result in a high degree of uncertainty [] as was the case in our sensitivity analyses (). Third, the follow-up after 4 years was conducted between April 2022 and June 2022, a period during which the German general population had experienced 2 years of restrictions and constantly shifting life circumstances due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic affected people’s alcohol consumption [,], their health literacy [], as well as their trust in science []. During the follow-up interviews, some participants spontaneously indicated that they had retained the feedback letters and re-read them from time to time. Although we were unable to investigate this more rigorously, participants in the intervention group might have re-evaluated their feedback during the COVID-19 pandemic. Albeit highly speculative, it is possible that this could have facilitated undesired effects through an unintended false sense of reassurance or influenced the accuracy of self-reported drinking in the intervention group but not in the control group.

Temporary positive intervention effects among low-risk drinkers [] and participants with a low or medium educational background [] were not sustained over the longer term. In a high consumption country such as Germany [], where the social pressure to drink is high, individualized feedback might need to be provided more frequently and consistently to achieve prolonged drinking reductions.

The public health potential of computer expert systems as brief intervention tools lies in their capacity to reliably provide highly individualized feedback to large groups of alcohol consumers, with relatively low effort once the expert system has been developed. This is particularly relevant given that brief alcohol interventions should not be limited to individuals who exceed former low-risk drinking limits, considering the health risks associated with drinking patterns below these limits [-]. Consequently, the target group of behavior-directed alcohol prevention encompasses a substantially larger share of the population than before. Motivational feedback based on digitalized expert systems is suitable for this purpose due to its efficiency and translational potential. In an increasingly digitalized world, the possibilities for providing visually appealing and easily accessible expert system feedback are manifold and growing constantly. In contrast, more terrestrial ways of feedback delivery, such as written letters sent via postal mail as used in the present study, may become more salient, leaving a lasting impression in a world characterized by mostly digital ways of communicating. Future studies could explore the role of delivery mode on how motivational feedback is processed and evaluated by recipients.

This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate new evidence regarding the risk from low drinking amounts [-] into a universal preventive intervention targeting all people who drink alcohol, regardless of how much. High participation and retention rates were achieved with a large population-based sample, which was comparable to the general population regarding the prevalence of problematic alcohol use []. The intention-to-treat analysis, including several sensitivity analyses, ensures the reliability of the conclusions drawn from the study data. However, the following limitations need to be acknowledged. First, the participation was selective, potentially introducing bias through nonignorable missingness. Second, alcohol consumption was self-reported using a quantity-frequency approach, which is known to be subject to underreporting by respondents []. Third, the assessment of the primary outcome may not have been sensitive and fine-grained enough to detect changes among participants with infrequent drinking patterns. Fourth, the PRINT trial was originally designed to investigate intervention effects after one year and the required sample size was calculated based on group differences within this period of time. Following the acquisition of renewal funding, we were able to explore long-term intervention and moderation effects. Since the long-term follow-ups after 3 and 4 years were not initially scheduled in the PRINT trial, the results should be considered as exploratory in nature, with potentially limited statistical power.

This study contributes to the literature on brief interventions by providing insight into the long-term effects of computer-generated individualized feedback letters. While previous studies have largely focused on individuals who consumed alcohol above a certain risk threshold, this study expands the scope to include all drinkers.

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M., Dec. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — At its regular meeting held today, the Board of Directors of TXNM Energy, Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) unanimously voted to increase the company’s annual dividend payment by $0.06, a 3.7 percent increase, to an indicated annual rate of $1.69 per share of common stock.

The increase continues the company’s long-standing dividend growth and considers the continued underlying earnings growth of the business balanced with increased capital investment plans.

The increased rate is contemplated within the proposed agreement under which affiliates of Blackstone Infrastructure will acquire the outstanding common stock of TXNM Energy. Quarterly dividends will continue during the pendency of the proposed transaction.

Additionally, the board has declared the resulting quarterly stock dividend of $0.4225 per share, payable February 13, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business January 30, 2026.

Background:
TXNM Energy (NYSE: TXNM), an energy holding company based in Albuquerque, New Mexico, delivers energy to more than 800,000 homes and businesses across Texas and New Mexico through its regulated utilities, TNMP and PNM. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.TXNMEnergy.com.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Statements made in this press release that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements generally include statements regarding the potential transaction between TXNM Energy and Blackstone Infrastructure, including any statements regarding the expected timetable for completing the potential transaction, the ability to complete the potential transaction, the expected benefits of the potential transaction, projected financial information, future opportunities, and any other statements regarding TXNM Energy’s and Blackstone Infrastructure’s future expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows, or future events or performance. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. Neither Blackstone Infrastructure nor TXNM Energy assumes any obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, TXNM Energy caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. TXNM Energy’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond its control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see TXNM Energy’s Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and the information filed on TXNM Energy’s Forms 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein and the risks and uncertainties related to the proposed transaction with Blackstone Infrastructure, including, but not limited to: the expected timing and likelihood of completion of the pending transaction, including the timing, receipt and terms and conditions of any required governmental and regulatory approvals of the pending transaction that could reduce anticipated benefits or cause the parties to abandon the transaction, the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the transaction agreement, including in circumstances requiring the Company to pay a termination fee, the possibility that TXNM Energy’s shareholders may not approve the transaction agreement, the risk that the parties may not be able to satisfy the conditions to the proposed transaction in a timely manner or at all, the outcome of legal proceedings that may be instituted against TXNM Energy, its directors and others related to the proposed transaction, risks related to disruption of management time from ongoing business operations due to the proposed transaction, the risk that the proposed transaction and its announcement could have an adverse effect on the ability of TXNM Energy to retain and hire key personnel and maintain relationships with its customers and suppliers, and on its operating results and businesses generally, the amount of costs, fees, charges or expenses resulting from the proposed transaction, and the risk that the price of TXNM Energy’s common stock may fluctuate during the pendency of the proposed transaction and may decline significantly if the proposed transaction is not completed. Other unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this communication could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements that speak only as of the date hereof.

SOURCE TXNM Energy, Inc.