Category: 3. Business

By Felix Vezina-Poirier

Stocks and bonds will react to new data on job openings, wages and labor-market perceptions

The U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, will make a crucial decision on interest rates at its December meeting.

With the U.S. government now reopened, the flow of economic data will resume over the next few weeks. The first major release was the September employment report, published last Thursday, while the White House has signaled the October data will likely only be partially released. That makes September’s report the only full labor-market reading the Federal Reserve will receive before its December meeting. What does it show, and where does it leave the Fed?

What we know about employment

September nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000, more than expected, rebounding from a downwardly revised loss of 4,000 in August. The pattern of downward revisions continued, with 33,000 jobs removed from prior months. This leaves the three-month average at 62,000, up from 18,000 in August but far below the 232,000 pace at the start of the year. Given the persistent revision pattern, the 119,000 figure is likely to be revised down as well.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. The labor market remains near equilibrium, but slightly above the Fed’s view of the natural rate of unemployment. Further weakening would create slack, and that weakness could feed on itself.

The next employment report, for October, will be incomplete. Because the household survey was not collected during the shutdown, the report will not contain the unemployment rate. This is inconvenient for investors, to say the least. The key current macro question has been whether the slowdown in employment reflects a cyclical weakening of the economy due to tariff uncertainty, or a structural slowing in population growth driven by aging and restrictive immigration policy.

What we probably know about the October labor market

Broad alternative indicators show little improvement in October. Private-sector surveys of manufacturing and services firms point to contracting employment. ADP data showed minimal gains. Private-sector measures of job openings and small-business surveys indicate softening labor demand. Private-sector layoff measures have increased, although weekly unemployment claims remain contained.

In sum, employment growth likely remained weak without collapsing. The unemployment rate likely ticked up again, but not sharply. Importantly, businesses do not report increased hiring difficulty, while workers report jobs are getting harder to get. The opposite pattern would appear if aging and reduced immigration were tightening the labor market more than weaker demand.

The Fed’s struggle

Whether employment weakness is driven by labor demand or labor supply is a key fault line within the FOMC. The labor market remains the pivotal factor that will determine the pace of Fed easing. The 10-2 vote at the last meeting for a 25-basis-point cut featured dissents on both sides: Governor Stephan Miran favored a 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to hold rates.

The September job report will not have changed those positions. Hawks can point to the rebound in headline job growth in a context of still-high inflation. Doves can point to the rising unemployment rate, negative payroll revisions, falling wage growth and weak job growth in cyclical sectors.

Recent Fed speeches point to a pause in cuts at the December meeting. Schmid, from the hawkish camp, argued that inflation remains broad-based and above target, with decent growth momentum and a balanced labor market. He views the slowdown as structural and warned about de-anchoring inflation expectations. Meanwhile, governor Christopher Waller, a leading dove, sees inflation driven mostly by tariffs and cyclical labor weakness, with slower wage growth and falling openings signaling demand-side slowing.

While the hawks could win the December debate, the doves’ case appears stronger for 2026. Alternative indicators for October and November do not point to a meaningful rebound in the labor market, and a greater share of the employment slowdown appears cyclical, not structural.

Ultimately, a weakening labor market will weigh on inflation. Goods inflation will soon peak, as shown by our price pressure index, which has crested. Slow growth limits companies’ ability to pass on costs, and falling oil prices have partly offset tariff-driven pressures. While December is uncertain, and should be a holding decision absent an immediate deterioration in the data, the direction of travel for policy rates is lower in 2026.

What investors should know now

This backdrop does not warrant an immediate shift in your investment portfolio, but it requires attention to how the labor market evolves. Signs of structural weakness will validate the hawks and reduce odds of easing. Signs of cyclical weakness will tilt votes toward the doves and increase the likelihood of faster easing.

The indicators to watch are job openings, wages and companies’ and workers’ perceptions of the labor market.

This is a precarious setup. Without major AI developments, good economic news could actually drive stocks lower. Equity markets have been betting on AI for upside, and on a dovish Fed supporting a slowing expansion as downside protection. With inflation still above target, strong data reduces the odds of the Fed easing.

We thus remain modestly defensive on stocks as growth and employment slow, awaiting clearer signs of sustained disinflation and improving macro momentum before turning constructive. Investors should maintain a neutral stance on stocks, an overweight on government bonds and underweight on credit and cash holdings. The labor market will set the direction for policy, and policy will set the terms for risk.

Felix Vezina-Poirier is the chief strategist for Daily Insights, BCA Research’s global cross-asset strategy service. Follow him on LinkedIn and X.

More: Why a functional U.S. government could actually trigger a bear market

Also read: AI and tech stocks are giving ‘early 1999’ dot-com bubble vibes. Is their rally finished?

-Felix Vezina-Poirier

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“The ministry always acted in compliance with rules and standard practices,” a Treasury official said.

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Prosecutors have been looking into whether the two investors and the bank acted in coordination while keeping supervisory authorities and investors in the dark.

MPS and the two shareholders, Italian tycoon Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and holding company Delfin, have denied any wrongdoing and expressed confidence the investigation will exonerate them.

Caltagirone and Delfin told markets watchdog Consob they had been sounded out by the ministry ahead of that sale in relation to a plan by the Treasury to create a core of more stable domestic shareholders in MPS, a judicial document reviewed by Reuters showed on Saturday.

The first two share placements brought in as shareholders dozens of international investment funds.

The judicial document showed the ministry told Consob there had been no previous contacts with the investors that took part in the November 2024 placement.

That sale cut the Treasury’s stake in MPS below 12%. The Mediobanca deal reduced it further below 5%.

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Tech Mahindra’s stock price target has been revised upward, with the fair value estimate rising from ₹1,568.60 to ₹1,577.74. This increase follows analysts’ consideration of both improved business fundamentals and a dynamic, mixed outlook for the company. Read on to learn what is influencing these updates and how you can keep track of the evolving narrative surrounding Tech Mahindra’s valuation.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Tech Mahindra.

Analyst commentary on Tech Mahindra continues to evolve as firms regularly review the company’s outlook, factoring in recent performance and broader market trends. While the dataset features limited direct street research specific to Tech Mahindra, notable themes from current analyst feedback can still inform the discussion on the company’s valuation and future prospects.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Recent upward revisions in fair value estimates reflect optimism around Tech Mahindra’s business fundamentals and potential for growth momentum.

• Analysts have highlighted execution quality and proactive cost control as positive differentiators for the company in the current environment.

• Forward-looking adjustments to price targets often cite transparent business updates and progress in strategic initiatives as supporting factors for a positive stance.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Even within a generally constructive environment, some analysts maintain reservations around valuation levels, with certain metrics suggesting the upside may be largely priced in at current levels.

• Near-term uncertainties, such as evolving market demand or industry cyclicality, remain key watch points cited in more cautious or neutral research notes.

• While no recent downward price target revisions were noted in the available data, analysts continue to flag the need for vigilance as the outlook changes.

Overall, the analyst narrative surrounding Tech Mahindra balances recognition of ongoing progress and healthy execution with an awareness of remaining risks. This keeps market observers attentive to both upside and potential headwinds in the company’s valuation story.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

• Tech Mahindra has joined forces with the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) to co-develop next-generation smart factory solutions. This strategic alliance aims to advance responsible AI applications in manufacturing.

• The company partnered with Crosscall to enhance enterprise mobility in North America. The partnership will focus on rugged device integration and AI/ML solutions targeted at key sectors such as oil and gas, manufacturing, and telecom.

• A Global Chess League Experience Center was opened at Tech Mahindra’s U.S. headquarters in Plano, Dallas, establishing a new hub for innovation and major chess tournaments at the intersection of technology and sport.

• Tech Mahindra introduced the TechM Orion Marketplace, an AI-driven platform designed to boost enterprise automation and operational efficiency through intelligent and autonomous agents.

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from ₹1,568.60 to ₹1,577.74, reflecting enhanced business fundamentals.

• The Discount Rate has increased marginally from 15.89% to 16.00%, indicating a modest shift in required return assumptions.

• The Revenue Growth Projection has edged up from 7.58% to 7.60%, showing a minor upward revision in analyst expectations.

• The Net Profit Margin forecast has improved slightly from 11.90% to 11.92%, pointing to better anticipated profitability.

• The Future P/E Ratio has increased modestly from 27.08x to 27.24x, suggesting a small change in valuation multiples.

Narratives take investing beyond the numbers, allowing users to share a story by expressing their perspective behind a company’s valuation and outlook. Each Narrative on Simply Wall St links business strategy to financial forecasts and then to a fair value. The goal is to simplify decision-making for millions of investors. By comparing Fair Value to the current Price and updating dynamically as news or earnings are released, Narratives offer guidance on whether to buy, sell, or hold directly from the Community page.

Visit the original Narrative on Tech Mahindra to stay informed on:

• How Tech Mahindra’s focus on high-growth sectors and global expansion could influence revenue momentum.

• The effects of AI-driven innovation and operational efficiencies on future profit margins and earnings quality.

• Risks related to sector declines, challenges in scaling, and customer renewal patterns that may impact long-term growth.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TECHM.nsei.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

MP Materials (MP) shares moved higher after the company reported annual net income growth and strong revenue gains. Investors are paying close attention to profitability trends, as rare earth demand shapes the outlook for the sector.

See our latest analysis for MP Materials.

After a strong annual report, MP Materials’ share price showed impressive momentum with a 12.09% jump over the past week, bringing its latest close to $61.95. While the 1-year total shareholder return sits at a remarkable 194.02%, longer-term results also remain well ahead of the market. This signals building optimism around the business’s growth prospects and sector position.

If the recent shift in momentum has you curious about what else is out there, now is the perfect moment to broaden the search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With MP Materials trading at a notable premium to its recent historical levels, investors are left to wonder if this surge is a signal that more upside remains, or if the market has already priced in all the future growth.

With the current fair value pegged at $79.11 and the latest close at $61.95, the prevailing narrative suggests there is meaningful upside left. Let us look at a core catalyst that drives this bold view.

Structural global shifts prioritizing domestic and allied supply chains for critical materials, underpinned by national security and electrification policies, have resulted in massive government funding, ownership stakes, and market protections for MP. This sets up long-term demand and premium pricing for U.S.-produced rare earths and supports sustained margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Why do analysts see room to run? Their price target calculation leans on blockbuster revenue projections, robust margin signals, and the premium that policymakers and major tech buyers are willing to pay for strategic materials security. Want to see the specific figures driving this powerful upside case? The full narrative pulls back the curtain.

Result: Fair Value of $79.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, ambitious facility build-outs risk delays or cost overruns. In addition, heavy dependence on a few key customers could introduce earnings volatility ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this MP Materials narrative.

Taking a different look using the price-to-sales ratio, MP Materials trades at 47.2x, which is much higher than both its peer average of 0.8x and the US Metals and Mining industry average of 2.4x. Even compared to a fair ratio of 2.5x, the stock appears expensive. Does this large gap signal added risk for new investors?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you have your own perspective, or want to dive into the details yourself, it takes just minutes to craft an independent narrative. Do it your way

A great starting point for your MP Materials research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Smart investors consistently seek fresh opportunities to get ahead of the market. Don’t miss your chance to tap into stocks with hidden potential using these handpicked screeners from Simply Wall Street:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Artificial intelligence (AI) allows computers and machines to simulate learning, comprehending, problem-solving, and decision-making in a similar manner to humans.¹ AI is rapidly transforming the field of pharmacy and will continue to do so.

The benefits of AI in pharmacy are far-reaching. It can enhance clinical and personalized medicine through pharmacogenomics, clinical decision support systems, and predictive analytics for medication management. It can streamline pharmacy operations through workflow automation, inventory optimization, billing, and regulatory compliance. AI improves patient safety and engagement by way of adverse event monitoring, patient engagement tools, and educational resources. It also accelerates drug discovery and development through clinical trial optimization and drug repurposing.

Although these benefits are crucial to the field of pharmacy, integration of AI presents significant ethical challenges that must be recognized and addressed to ensure patient welfare. Careful consideration must be given to key ethical concerns such as data privacy, algorithmic bias, transparency, accountability, and human oversight in order to balance crucial innovation with ethical standards.

Data Privacy and Security

AI relies on vast amounts of sensitive patient data, thereby creating significant data privacy challenges. Proper safeguards are necessary to protect patient data and adhere to relevant regulatory requirements, such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).²

Data Breaches and Cyber-Attacks

AI-driven pharmacies are vulnerable to data breaches and cyber-attacks through the targeting of patient information, intellectual property, and drug data. An increased reliance on digital systems creates entry points for attackers to use ransomware, commence phishing, and breach AI data pipelines.³

Re-Identification of De-Identified Data

Combining datasets using advanced algorithms to exploit unique combinations of identifiers that can then be used to find overlapping information. These can then be pieced together to uncover a real identity.⁴

Third-Party Vendor Risk

In health care, almost one-third of all data breaches originate through third-party compromise. These attacks target vulnerabilities in the vendor’s systems, allowing attackers to access data they normally would not have access to.⁵

Algorithmic Bias and Fairness

Most AI algorithms learn from enormous datasets. If these datasets are incomplete, skewed, or compromised in any way, the AI algorithm may reproduce and amplify incorrect information.

Biased Training Data

If training data is misrepresentative of the full population, AI may propagate this bias, which may lead to poor patient outcomes.⁶

Lack of Data Diversity

Data diversity represents the inclusion of data from a variety of demographics including age, gender, ethnicity, geographic locations, and socioeconomic status. Cultural diversity indicates accounting for differences in language, customs, and mores. Behavioral diversity denotes including data from more than just dominant patterns. Finally, contextual diversity means that data is captured from varied environments and situations.⁶

Information Bias

Information bias is the outcome of a combination of errors in how training data is collected, measured, or processed that can lead to inaccurate and possibly discriminatory results.

Unintended Feedback Bias

AI models learn not only through large datasets but also through a feedback loop. This can lead AI to reinforce its own flawed conclusions.

Transparency and Explainability

By making AI processes and data understandable and providing clear and understandable reasoning for recommendations produced by AI, pharmacists can help detect bias, ensure accuracy, and enhance patient safety. This also facilitates shared decision-making by helping both patients and health care providers understand the risks and benefits of therapy.

Human Oversight and Control

Incorporating human intervention throughout the AI process is imperative to ensure patient safety, ethical practice, regulatory compliance, and system accuracy. AI cannot match pharmacists’ strategic thinking, ethical judgment, or clinical expertise. Regulators of AI must focus on human-in-the-loop (intervention at critical points to guide and review AI outputs) and human-on-the-loop (human supervision for necessary interventions).⁷

Equitable Access

Health equity relating to AI applications refers to the fair and just distribution of health technologies and their associated benefits. All individuals should have access to the same health care services regardless of race, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, or geographic location.

Artificial intelligence must advance health care and provide positive health outcomes while also doing so in a way that lessens existing health disparities rather than increasing them.⁸

Accountability and Liability

Accountability and liability in pharmacy when using AI is complex as there are several stakeholders to consider and a lack of clear legal frameworks.

• Pharmacists: Pharmacists are responsible for patient care and are required to act under the “reasonable professional” standard whether they are using AI as a tool. Failure to act on a flawed AI recommendation can result in liability and, conversely, failure to use an available AI tool that may have prevented an error are liable as well.
• Health care institutions: Hospitals and pharmacies can be held liable for the AI they implement. Negligent supervision encompasses failure to adequately train staff and set oversight procedures. Negligent selections would be implementing an unreliable and/or unverified AI system. Vicarious liability includes holding the institution responsible for the actions of their employees.
• AI developers and vendors: Product liabilities include coding errors and glitches, inadequate prerelease testing, failure to warn of limitations and risks of products, and using biased training data that leads to discriminatory outcomes.

Patient Autonomy and Informed Consent

Patients must understand how AI can influence treatment decisions through clear communication about the process in which AI analyzes data and makes recommendations. Patients have the absolute right to make informed decisions about their care, even when AI is involved.

Regular Monitoring and Auditing

To remain reliable and effective, AI systems must be continuously monitored and evaluated for “drift”, where the accuracy of AI recommendations degrades over time due to data changes or evolving circumstances.

Conclusion

The potential for AI to transform the field of pharmacy is immense. This potential is tempered by a wide range of ethical considerations including data privacy, bias, transparency, equitable access, and accountability. Successful implementation of AI requires collaborative efforts between AI developers, pharmacists, regulators, and more to establish ethical standards and educational frameworks.

REFERENCES

1. What is AI? IBM website. August 9, 2024. https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/artificial-intelligence. Accessed September 9, 2025.

2. Artificial Intelligence in Pharmacy: Appropriate Use of AI (Part 1 of 2). Florida Pharmacy Foundation website. https://flpharmfound.org/artificial-intelligence-in-pharmacy-part-1#:~:text=Additionally%2C%20the%20ethical%20implications%20of,and%20mitigate%20potential%20ethical%20issues. Accessed September 9, 2025.

3. Li J. Security Implications of AI Chatbots in Health Care. J Med Internet Res. 2023 Nov 28;25:e47551. doi: 10.2196/47551. PMID: 38015597; PMCID: PMC10716748.

4. Erosion of Anonymity: Mitigating the Risk of Re-Identification of De-Identified Health Data. Health Law Advisor website. February 28, 2019. https://www.healthlawadvisor.com/erosion-of-anonymity-mitigating-the-risk-of-re-identification-of-de-identified-health-data#:~:text=To%20mitigate%20these%20risks%2C%20organizations%20can:%20*,sharing%20and%20use%20agreement%20with%20the%20recipient. Accessed September 10, 2025.

5. More Than One-Third of Data Breaches Due to Third-Party Supplier Compromises. The HIPAA Journal website. March 28, 2025. https://www.hipaajournal.com/more-than-one-third-data-breaches-third-party-compromises/. Accessed September 10, 2025.

6. Norori N, Hu Q, Aellen FM, Faraci FD, Tzovara A. Addressing bias in big data and AI for health care: A call for open science. Patterns (N Y). 2021 Oct 8;2(10):100347. doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2021.100347. PMID: 34693373; PMCID: PMC8515002.

7. Singh R, Paxton M, Auclair J. Regulating the AI-enabled ecosystem for human therapeutics. Commun Med (Lond). 2025 May 17;5(1):181. doi: 10.1038/s43856-025-00910-x. PMID: 40382515; PMCID: PMC12085592.

8. Health Equity and Ethical Considerations in Using Artificial Intelligence in Public Health and Medicine. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. August 22, 2024. https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2024/24_0245.htm#:~:text=The%20potential%20of%20AI%20to,or%20geographic%20location%20(8). Accessed September 10, 2025.

RWE (XTRA:RWE) stock has been on the move lately, and many investors are keeping an eye on the utility’s performance across European and international markets. The company’s ability to generate consistent revenue growth makes it a key name to watch in the sector.

See our latest analysis for RWE.

RWE’s steady run has caught the eye lately, especially after a robust rally that’s seen the share price jump nearly 48% year-to-date and surge over 27% in the last 90 days. Momentum is clearly building, with the one-year total shareholder return also standing strong at 41.8%, highlighting both recent excitement and solid long-term value for investors.

If you want to broaden your perspective beyond utilities, now’s a great time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With RWE’s impressive rally and steady fundamentals, investors are left to wonder if the recent gains signal a bargain waiting to be seized or if the market has already taken the company’s future growth prospects into account.

With RWE shares last closing at €43.74 and the most-watched narrative suggesting a fair value of €47.16, there is a visible gap between current price and what analysts believe is justified. This difference is drawing fresh attention from market observers, and the stage is set for a closer look at the catalysts shaping those projections.

Major policy tailwinds in core markets, the U.K. retention of a single price zone, extension of CfD periods to 20 years, higher auction price caps, and the new U.S. “Big Beautiful Bill” with tax incentives are expected to provide greater revenue visibility and de-risk project cash flows. These factors may support higher recurring revenues and improved earnings quality over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what aggressive financial forecasts are behind that premium? The narrative is anchored in bold growth drivers and a future multiple that is turning heads. Don’t miss the surprisingly optimistic projections that could change how you value RWE.

Result: Fair Value of €47.16 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, unpredictably weak wind conditions or supply chain disruptions could quickly challenge RWE’s current growth outlook and prompt investors to reassess their expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this RWE narrative.

Taking a different approach, our DCF model estimates RWE’s fair value at €26.80, which is significantly lower than the current share price. This means that, despite the optimism shown by analyst targets, a cash flow-based perspective sees the stock as overvalued. Is the market too optimistic about RWE’s growth, or is the DCF being too cautious?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out RWE for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 920 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you want a second opinion or enjoy digging into the numbers yourself, it takes less than three minutes to build your own perspective and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your RWE research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Upgrade your portfolio by taking action on fresh opportunities you may be overlooking. These screens are waiting for you and could reveal your next winning stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include RWE.DE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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China’s jewellery retailers are reeling from gold’s blistering rally and the reduction of a tax rebate as high prices have deterred buyers and led to hundreds of store closures in one of the world’s largest consumer markets for the metal.

Large retail chains have reduced their footprint in mainland China this year, while a number of small sellers told the Financial Times that rising prices and a growing tax burden had torpedoed sales.

The price of gold has jumped by half this year to more than $4,000 a troy ounce as investors pile into the asset as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, growing levels of global government debt and concerns over a falling dollar.

In China, where gold jewellery is traditionally purchased as a wedding gift or as a store of value, high prices for the commodity have run up against weak consumer sentiment amid slowing economic growth.

Retailers are also adapting to new rules introduced this month that increase taxes on gold jewellery purchases by cutting a long-standing rebate. The higher tax burden has pushed sellers to raise prices further, they said.

“This industry is quite difficult at the moment, especially after the tax increase,” said Fifi Zheng, who helps run Aiyisheng, her family’s business based in Shenzhen’s gold trading district Shuibei. “Lots of Chinese consumers aren’t buying, so it’s quite hard to accept [the tax], even though it only adds a couple dozen renminbi per gramme.”

While gold purchases for weddings were holding up, everyday purchases had “fallen maybe 40 to 50 per cent” since the new rules were introduced, she added.

Chow Tai Fook, China’s biggest jewellery retailer by sales, has closed about 1,000 mainland stores this year, a reduction of 15 per cent. The company on Tuesday reported net profit of HK$2.5bn (US$320mn) in the half-year to the end of September, unchanged from a year earlier, on HK$39bn of revenue, its lowest in five years.

Chow Tai Fook managing director Kent Wong said in an earnings presentation that the company had closed underperforming stores as part of a shift away from lower-tier to more affluent cities, which were experiencing a “better recovery in consumer demand”.

Over the past year, rival operator Lukfook has closed more than 200 mainland stores, reducing its total store count since the start of the year by 7 per cent. The company on Thursday said half-year revenue to the end of September increased 26 per cent to HK$6.8bn compared with the same period last year, while net profit rose by 42.5 per cent to HK$619mn.

Lukfook said: “Despite the high gold prices, the retailing business in the mainland market showed continued improvement.” It added that it was still evaluating implications of the tax policy change.

Carlton Lai, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, said the store closures followed a period of overexpansion during Covid-19 when spending was more robust.

“As consumption slowed, the productivity of these stores declined significantly,” he said, adding that the issue was compounded by growing competition from newer brands and surging gold prices.

In Shuibei — where thousands of shops crammed into multistorey malls handle transactions equal to 70 per cent of the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s annual deliveries of the metal, according to state media — sellers were dour. Many complained the new tax had come at the wrong time.

“Our prices were already high and now they’re higher after the tax,” said Chen, a Shuibei seller who declined to give her full name. “If [customers] want to get married, there’s no other choice: they just buy less.”

Daiwa’s Lai said the tax change aimed to curb speculative purchases of gold jewellery and could push low-quality retailers out of the market.

They could also reduce unregulated over-the-counter transactions in favour of trading through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and close tax refund loopholes, he said.

While jewellery sellers are struggling, demand for gold investment products has risen as retail traders search for ways to gain exposure to the metal. The new tax rules do not apply to investment products.

Holdings of domestic gold exchange traded funds increased 164 per cent to 194 tonnes in the first three quarters of this year, according to the China Gold Association.

“The panic caused for people in the industry by this tax policy hasn’t yet subsided,” said Li Zhaofen, a Shuibei retailer and wholesaler. “This is because gold has been tax free for the past 20 years . . . the future direction remains unclear.”

Additional reporting by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong

The two sides had been in a standoff over the implementation of the West African country’s new mining code that gave Mali a bigger share of revenue from gold miners as gold prices surged to a record high.

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The agreement included Mali releasing the four employees from prison, where they had been held since November 2024, according to a statement from the company.

The sources who confirmed the release asked not to be named because they were not authorised to discuss the matter.

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The meeting of OPEC+, which pumps half of the world’s oil, comes as oil prices are also under pressure from the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15% this year.

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OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps about half the world’s oil and has been discussing for years production capacity figures against which members’ output targets are set.

In a separate meeting on Sunday, the full OPEC+ group is expected to agree on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, sources told Reuters this week. OPEC said in May this capacity assessment would be used as a reference for 2027 output baselines.

A series of online meetings is scheduled to begin at 1300 GMT on Sunday. OPEC+ ministers are also expected to not make any changes to group-wide production targets for 2026, other sources said this week.

OPEC+ had been curtailing supplies for years until April when the eight members began to raise production to recover market share. The cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million barrels per day, almost 6% of world output, in total.

The eight – Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – have raised output targets by around 2.9 million bpd from April to December.

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