Category: 3. Business

  • Privacy-Preserving Research Models for Education R&D

    Privacy-Preserving Research Models for Education R&D

    The current education research-to-policy pipeline is too slow to keep pace with the urgent needs of districts and states. Researchers face steep barriers to accessing high-quality, multimodal data, while existing R&D infrastructures remain siloed and under-resourced. Without scalable, trusted, systems that enable timely and secure data use, the U.S. risks falling behind in generating actionable and evidence-based insights to guide policy and practice. In this memo, we discuss how privacy-preserving research models can be used to strengthen education R&D capacity. 

    Challenge and Opportunity

    Learning is a lifelong and multidimensional process, yet data about learning has historically been difficult to obtain. The shift to digital learning platforms (DLPs), accelerated by COVID-19, has created a wealth of data, but accessing it remains complex and slow – especially for researchers with fewer institutional resources.

    Additionally, complex privacy laws, such as the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) and Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), alongside state-specific regulations and institutional risk aversion, create substantial barriers. These laws were not designed to accommodate privacy scenarios within the current environment of pervasive data collection and rapidly advancing AI. 

    As such, trusted mechanisms for safe data access that remove barriers to critical R&D, bolster global competitiveness, and leverage innovation to cultivate a skilled STEM workforce, are more important than ever.  Without trusted mechanisms to ensure privacy while enabling secure data access, essential R&D stalls, educational innovation stalls, and U.S. global competitiveness suffers.

    Flipping the traditional research model

    The landscape of educational research and development (R&D) is rapidly evolving as digital learning platforms (DLPs) capture increasingly rich streams of data about how students learn. These multimodal data streams provide unprecedented opportunities to accelerate insights into how learning happens, for whom, and in what contexts – as well as how these processes, in turn, affect learning outcomes, engagement, and persistence. Yet, despite this potential, access to platform-generated learning data remains highly constrained – particularly for early-career researchers with minimal institutional resources and organizations outside elite academic settings. 

    Current challenges to accessing DLP data include privacy risks (e.g., data leaks), opaque legal environments, institutional risk aversion, and the lack of trusted third-party intermediaries to balance privacy with data utility. As a result, promising research is delayed and the research-to-policy pipeline is exacerbated – leaving decision-makers without timely evidence to address urgent needs such as learning recovery, responsible AI integration, or workforce readiness.

    Privacy-preserving models offer transformative opportunities to address these barriers. Across sectors, the field is converging on trusted research environments that include secure enclaves that keep data in situ and move analysis to the data. SafeInsights, the U.S. Census’ Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC), and North Carolina Education Research Data Center (NCERDC) are examples of such systems complemented by privacy-preserving methods.

    Privacy-preserving research models, such as SafeInsights, flip the traditional research model: instead of giving data to researchers, it brings researchers’ questions and analyses, encoded as software, to the data. At no point in the research process does the researcher have direct access to raw data, thereby minimizing concerns for data leaks. 

    Researchers instead use sample or synthetic data to craft their analyses. Once the researchers’ analysis code is submitted to the owner of the data, it is reviewed by experts for approval. This model minimizes risk, reduces delays in the research-to-policy pipeline, and unlocks data that would otherwise remain inaccessible.

    Think of it as a secure research zone: a trusted third-party intermediary where researchers can run analyses using specific tools and applications, but cannot access data directly, ensuring strict security.

    Rather than extracting and sharing sensitive data with researchers, privacy-preserving research models bring researchers’ analytic tools to secure data enclaves – preserving privacy while enabling rigorous, scalable, inquiry of DLP data. Through secure enclaves, transparent governance, and standardized compliance frameworks, a durable large-scale infrastructure for research can be created.

    Benefits of privacy-preserving research models

    • Accelerate time to insight for policy and decision-makers who need rapid, evidence-based guidance. Standardized governance reduces delays arising from fragmented compliance and legal processes. For federal, state, and local level policy and decision-makers, this means actionable insights can be delivered in months rather than years, potentially informing legislative decisions and programs with greater speed.
    • Safely join data across platforms, enabling richer analyses of student learning. Shared infrastructure maximizes critical research infrastructure return on investments and spreads costs across funders. Secure, trusted, interoperable research environments protect privacy while enabling cumulative evidence. This aligns with federal agency priorities to modernize research infrastructure and ensure taxpayer investments translate into impact.
    • Democratize access and participation in complex research by lowering barriers for early-career researchers with minimal institutional resources and organizations outside elite academic settings. Lowering barriers to entry broadens the reach of federal R&D investments and supports state leaders and research organizations seeking to participate in research.

    By securing cross-sector investment for embedding scalable privacy-preserving models into R&D ecosystems and infrastructures, we can expand access to high-value data while supporting long-term research scalability, security, and trust.

    Such models can fill a critical gap in the R&D ecosystem by establishing a secure and sustainable research infrastructure that extends well beyond its initial NSF funding and is ideally suited to broker access between DLP developers, school districts, and researchers.

    Plan of Action

    Promote R&D Infrastructure Development and Sustainability

    Privacy-preserving research models have the potential to offer researchers safer, faster, reliable, high-value, de-identified data analyses – while simultaneously saving DLPs and school districts time and resources on compliance reviews and privacy audits. It also creates opportunities for funders to support a sustainable research infrastructure that multiplies the impact of each dollar invested.

    To move from promise to practice, interested stakeholders, including research institutions, school districts, and funders, should consider the following actions:

    Recommendation 1. Lay the Foundation for Sustainable Large-Scale R&D Infrastructure

    • Conduct policy landscape scans, including review of state student privacy laws, to identify commonalities, constraints, and pathways for district participation.
    • Interview stakeholders, including district data leads, state education agencies, and platform providers, to understand pain points and demand for trusted intermediaries.
    • Review existing research infrastructures and operational frameworks, including research data hub governance, fee structures, data-sharing agreements, IRB support services, and services, adapting effective practices to the privacy-preserving context.

    Recommendation 2. Embed Infrastructure Costs into Research Contracts and Budgets

    • Require researchers to include service fees for privacy-preserving infrastructure directly in grant applications, with templates to simplify proposal preparation.
    • Embed privacy-preserving infrastructure costs in contracting and budgeting to support scalability, drive down the marginal cost of data access across the field, and make rigorous educational research more accessible and sustainable beyond single grants.

    Recommendation 3. Catalyze Scaling through Foundation and Philanthropic Support

    Recommendation 4. Develop Large Scale R&D Infrastructure across Sectors

    • Extend privacy-preserving models across sectors, such as education, health, workforce, housing, and finance, to capture increasingly rich streams of data about how people live, learn, work, and access services.
    • Enable secure, interoperable, cross-sector research on questions such as how early education experiences impacts long-term workforce outcomes or  how neighborhood-level educational access connects to public health disparities.
    • Align with federal agency efforts, such as the Federal Data Strategy, to support the linking of data ecosystems across sectors.

    Conclusion

    Privacy-preserving research models offer standardized, secure, and privacy-conscious ways to analyze data – helping researchers at the local, state, and federal levels understand long-term educational trends, policy impacts, and demographic disparities with unprecedented clarity.

    By accelerating time-to-insight, investing in critical R&D infrastructure, and expanding participation in complex research, privacy-preserving research models offer possibilities for delivering on urgent policy priorities – building towards a modern, responsive, trustworthy education R&D ecosystem.

    What kinds of research topics can be explored using privacy-preserving research models?

    Privacy-preserving research models could offer the possibility to connect researchers with DLP data representing different learning contexts. DLP data is often rich and versatile, possibly enabling the exploration of multiple research topics, including:

    • Learning Behaviors: Analyze patterns of engagement, tool usage (e.g., text-to-speech, digital pencil), or response time.
    • Personalized Learning: Investigate how adaptive experiences influence outcomes.
    • Achievement Gaps: Study differences across subgroups (e.g., students with disabilities, English Language Learners).
    • Intervention Effectiveness: Test how interventions or instructional strategies impact student performance.
    • Learning Trajectories: Examine longitudinal progress and identify barriers to success.

    What kinds of data could be made available through privacy-preserving research models?

    Privacy-preserving research models could facilitate connections among various types of educational data from DLP developers, each representing different aspects of K16+ teaching and learning, including administrative records, learning management systems, and curricular resource usage data.

    Examples of DLP data categories include digital curricula, university data systems, and student information systems for K-12 institutions.

    What are some examples of privacy-preserving research models utilizing secure enclaves across different sectors?

    Across sectors, the field is converging on privacy-preserving research models that utilize secure enclaves to keep data in situ and move analysis to the data. Such examples include:

    • Federal statistical system: the FSRDC network provides secure facilities (now including some remote access) where qualified researchers run analyses on restricted microdata under rigorous review.
    • Cross-agency administrative data: the Coleridge Initiative’s Administrative Data Research Facility (ADRF) is a FedRAMP-certified, cloud based platform that supports inter-state and inter-agency linkages under shared governance.
    • State education data enclaves: NCERDC at Duke University and the Texas Education Research Center (ERC) support secure access to longitudinal education/workforce data with well-defined agreements and masking rules.
    • Health: OpenSAFELY operationalizes a strict “code-to-data” model—researchers develop code on dummies, submit jobs to run against in-place EHR data, and only aggregate outputs leave the enclave. NIH’s N3C and All of Us Researcher Workbench similarly provide secure, cloud based research environments where individual-level data never leave the enclave.

    These approaches are complemented by privacy-preserving release methods (e.g., differential privacy), used by the U.S. Census Bureau and supported by open-source toolkits like OpenDP/SmartNoise.

    How might privacy-preserving research models support research and researchers?

    At the center of privacy-preserving research models is privacy-by-design that enables secure research with protected information – while alleviating technical, logistical, and collaborative challenges for researchers.

    Technical

    Privacy-preserving research models can offer technical components that support large-scale digital learning research such as:

    • Analysis options, which enable large-scale analysis of single platform data
    • Intervention options, which enable researchers —under appropriate agreements—to introduce different kinds of interactive activities (including surveys, assessments, and learning activities) within a partner platform’s student experience
    • Enclave fusion, which in some designs can enable researchers to leverage multi-platform data

    Logistical

    • Shared data sharing agreement templates
    • Streamlined IRB and data-sharing processes
    • Consent management across different populations
    • Regulatory compliance with the changing data protection landscape

    Community and Collaboration

    • Help easily surface researchers and the research that they are conducting
    • Bridge connections among platforms, researchers, and educational institutions to support meaningful research to inform practice
    • Connect researchers at different levels of their careers and different domains to support mentorship and collaboration

     

    Case Study: Turning Student Assessment into Actionable Insights

    If assessment results are the scoreboard that reveals what students are learning, user data is the game film that reveals how students learn: time on task, requesting support, revising, using resources.

    Using SafeInsights’ privacy-preserving tools, researchers can securely analyze real-time digital learning platform data to better understand how students engage with digital learning. Consider two students with the same score:

    Student A works steadily, using hints to revise answers. This pattern suggests a need for additional content support, scaffolding, and practice.

    Student B races through with rapid guessing and skipped items. This pattern suggests a need to adjust prompts, pacing, and support.

    By distinguishing between these pathways, researchers, educators, and policymakers can target digital learning platform interventions more precisely—whether that means redesigning practice problems, adjusting instructional supports, or tailoring engagement strategies.

    Bottom line: SafeInsights securely transforms raw data into actionable evidence, helping policymakers and practitioners invest in solutions that boost learning outcomes and improvement at scale.

    Education & Workforce

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    Privacy-Preserving Research Models Essential for Large Scale Education R&D Infrastructure

    Without trusted mechanisms to ensure privacy while enabling secure data access, essential R&D stalls, educational innovation stalls, and U.S. global competitiveness suffers.

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    Education & Workforce

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    Analytical Literacy First: A Prerequisite for AI, Data, and Digital Fluency

    tudents in the 21st century need strong critical thinking skills like reasoning, questioning, and problem-solving, before they can meaningfully engage with more advanced domains like digital, data, or AI literacy.

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    Improving Standardized Test Score Reporting and Administration for Students, Caregivers, and Educators

    We need to overhaul the standardized testing and score reporting system to be more accessible to all of the end users of standardized tests: educators, students, and their families.

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    Education & Workforce

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    Moving Federal Postsecondary Education Data to the States

    Moving postsecondary education data collection to the states is the best way to ensure that the U.S. Department of Education can meet its legislative mandates in an era of constrained federal resources.

    10.24.25
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    6 min read

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  • Trump sons’ bitcoin venture sheds a third of its value in crypto turmoil

    Trump sons’ bitcoin venture sheds a third of its value in crypto turmoil

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    Shares in a US cryptocurrency miner backed by Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump shed a third of its value on Tuesday as early investors cashed out en masse at the end of a lock-up period.

    American Bitcoin was down 37 per cent by mid-afternoon in New York, wiping roughly $1bn from its market value. Trading volume in the stock was almost 40 times the daily average, according to Bloomberg data.

    Eric Trump attributed the sell-off to investors in a $215mn private placement in June exercising their ability to “cash in on their profits for the first time”.

    This is “why we will see volatility” in the company’s share price, the president’s son said on X. “I’m holding all my [American Bitcoin] shares — I’m 100% committed to leading the industry.”

    American Bitcoin, which says its “ambition is to build the strongest and most efficient Bitcoin accumulation platform in the world”, went public in September through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed miner Gryphon Digital Mining.

    Eric Trump is American Bitcoin’s co-founder and chief strategy officer. Donald Trump Jr was an early investor. Matt Prusak, American Bitcoin’s president, said the end of the share lock-up period “affects who can buy or sell, not the assets we operate or the work the team is doing every day”.

    Donald Trump has loosened regulations on the crypto sector since returning as president this year and has vowed to make the US a digital currency “superpower”. He previously described the value of crypto as based on “thin air”.

    The broader crypto market has tumbled in recent weeks as investors have pulled back from risky assets, with bitcoin down about 30 per cent since its latest peak in early October. Bitcoin steadied on Tuesday, however, up 5 per cent at about $90,000 per token.

    American Bitcoin — which creates new bitcoin through the computational process known as mining and also maintains its own “strategic” bitcoin reserve — was originally called American Data Centers but rebranded in late March in a joint venture with Hut 8, another crypto miner.

    As part of the deal, Hut 8 agreed to hand over all of its mining equipment in exchange for a majority interest in ADC. Hut 8’s shares were down 11 per cent on Tuesday.

    American Bitcoin is among several crypto companies backed by the president’s sons, who also co-founded World Liberty Financial, which has issued billions of its own tokens and lists Donald Trump as co-founder emeritus.

    The value of its WLF token has collapsed 86 per cent over the past year, according to CoinMarketCap data.

    Trump Media & Technology Group, which runs the Truth Social app and is controlled by the president’s family, earlier this year said it planned to raise $1.5bn in fresh equity and another $1bn through convertible bonds to create a “bitcoin treasury”.

    TMTG’s share price is down almost 70 per cent this year.

    Shares in other so-called bitcoin treasury companies have tumbled in recent months amid the wider sell-off for hundreds of digital assets.

    Michael Saylor’s Strategy — which pioneered the model and holds 650,000 bitcoin, equivalent to 3.1 per cent of the world’s total supply of the cryptocurrency — has fallen 40 per cent this year as investors have cooled on the company’s prolific issuance of shares, convertible debt and new preferred equity instruments to fund its bitcoin-buying spree.

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  • Sam Altman issues ‘code red’ at OpenAI as ChatGPT contends with rivals | ChatGPT

    Sam Altman issues ‘code red’ at OpenAI as ChatGPT contends with rivals | ChatGPT

    Sam Altman has declared a “code red” at OpenAI to improve ChatGPT as the chatbot faces intense competition from rivals.

    According to a report by tech news site the Information, the chief executive of the San Francisco-based startup told staff in an internal memo: “We are at a critical time for ChatGPT.”

    OpenAI has been rattled by the success of Google’s latest AI model, Gemini 3, and is devoting more internal resources to improving ChatGPT.

    Last month, Altman told employees that the launch of Gemini 3, which has outperformed rivals on various benchmarks, could create “temporary economic headwinds” for the company. He added: “I expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit.”

    OpenAI’s flagship product has 800 million weekly users but Google is also highly profitable due to its search business and has substantial data and financial resources to throw at its AI tools.

    Sam Altman. Photograph: José Luis Magaña/AP

    Marc Benioff, the chief executive of the $220bn (£166bn) software group Salesforce, wrote last month that he had switched allegiance to Gemini 3 and was “not going back” after trying Google’s latest AI release.

    “I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane – reasoning, speed, images, video … everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again,” he wrote on X.

    OpenAI is also delaying a foray into putting advertising in ChatGPT as it focuses on improving the chatbot, which celebrated its third birthday last month.

    The head of ChatGPT, Nick Turley, marked the anniversary with a post on X pledging to break new ground with the product.

    He wrote: “Our focus now is to keep making ChatGPT more capable, continue growing, and expand access around the world – while making it even more intuitive and personal. Thanks for an incredible three years. Lots more to do!”

    Despite lacking the cash flow support enjoyed by rivals Google, Meta and Amazon, which is a big funder of competitor Anthropic, OpenAI has received substantial funding from the likes of the SoftBank investment group and Microsoft. In its latest valuation, OpenAI reached $500bn, up from $157bn last October.

    OpenAI is loss-making and expects to end the year with annual revenues of more than $20bn, which Altman expects will grow to “hundreds of billion[s]” by 2030. The startup is committed to steep revenue growth after pledging to spend $1.4tn on datacentre costs to train and operate its AI systems over the next eight years.

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    “Based on the trends we are seeing of how people are using AI and how much of it they would like to use, we believe the risk of OpenAI of not having enough computing power is more significant and more likely than the risk of having too much,” said Altman last month.

    Apple has also responded to increasingly intense competitive pressures in the sector by naming a new vice-president of AI. Amar Subramanya, a Microsoft executive, will replace John Giannandrea.

    Apple has been slow to add AI features to its products in comparison with rivals such as Samsung, which have been quicker to refresh their devices with AI features.

    Subramanya is joining Apple from Microsoft, where he most recently served as corporate vice-president of AI. Previously, Subramanya spent 16 years at Google, where his roles included the head of engineering for the Gemini assistant.

    Earlier this year, Apple said AI improvements to its voice assistant Siri would be delayed until 2026.

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  • Partnering with Ricursive Intelligence: A Premier Frontier Lab Pioneering AI for Chip Design

    Partnering with Ricursive Intelligence: A Premier Frontier Lab Pioneering AI for Chip Design

    Compute is the most valuable resource in the AI world we live in today. Nvidia. Google TPUs. Amazon Trainium. OpenAI and Broadcom’s partnership. Elon’s recent post about Tesla’s AI chips.

    Designing the most performant chips for AI workloads sits at the heart of accelerating technological progress.

    But major hurdles exist.

    First, chip design is slow. It takes 12-24 months at mature nodes and 18-36 months at the leading edge for 5nm or 3nm.

    Second, chip design is prohibitively expensive. It costs on average $200-250 million for 7nm, $450-500 million for 5nm, and $600-650 million for 3nm. Roughly 50-70% of that is human labor. Another 5-15% is Electronic Design Automation tooling spend in a market long dominated by Cadence and Synopsys, where each generates $5-6 billion in annual revenue and are worth approximately $90-100 billion in market cap.

    AlphaChip caught my eye for these exact reasons. It gave us a peek at AI’s potential to transform the entire chip design process, showing we can cut the floorplanning step in physical design from months to hours.

    What if we could extrapolate this and build AI to automate the entire flow, from architecture design to RTL to verification, all the way through physical design?

    What if chip design took days, not two to three years? Every day is massively costly; some reports from August 2024 indicated that a multi-month Blackwell delay could result in more than $10 billion in lost revenue for 2025 alone. More importantly, imagine the revenue potential unlocked when new generations of chips are designed faster and shipped earlier.

    What if each design didn’t cost hundreds of millions of dollars? What if chip companies didn’t need to operate large human teams on top of clunky EDA tooling?

    And most exciting: what if we unlocked novel chip designs we might never have explored?

    AlphaChip revealed an important human bias: in chip design, we tend to think in Manhattan grid-like structures. AlphaChip’s designs were different, more organic in shape, more like forms inspired by nature. So different, in fact, that humans wanted to reject them at first … Yet AlphaChip went on to shape four generations of the TPU.

    We at Sequoia are so excited to partner with co-founders Anna Goldie and Azalia Mirhoseini, leading their very first round from the formation of Ricursive Intelligence. They pioneered AI for chip design by creating and leading the AlphaChip effort and are at the epicenter of this emerging AI for chip design ecosystem. They are visionaries with incredible clarity of thought, intensely ambitious, humble yet exceptionally accomplished, and real talent magnets who move, and inspire others to move, with urgency and velocity.

    Anna and Azalia founded Ricursive Intelligence to build the frontier AI lab defining this category. In just the first weeks since company formation, they have assembled a team with the highest talent density you can imagine in the field.

    Their core belief: chip design is the compute bottleneck, and progress in AI, hardware and infrastructure is capped by the speed and efficiency of silicon creation.

    In their words: “If we get this right, it’s not just faster chip design cycles; it’s a fundamental expansion of what’s possible in hardware. Once chip design becomes fast and accessible, everyone will be able to customize. The automation here will unlock a flood of new hardware innovation.”

    Anna and Azalia’s vision for Ricursive is to define a new movement, from “fabless” to “designless.” Fabless, meaning a company designing chips without owning expensive fabs, outsourcing production to foundries. Designless, meaning outsourcing not only manufacturing but the entire chip design process, taking an idea and converting it into a manufacturable design.

    We envision a world where Ricursive helps any company design chips for its own workloads faster, more efficiently and more creatively than is possible today. In doing so, Ricursive can help revolutionize the most valuable resource in our era: compute. We could not be more excited to help build a true generational company in the making.

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  • Exclusive: Exxon in talks with Iraq about buying Lukoil stake in giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, sources say – Reuters

    1. Exclusive: Exxon in talks with Iraq about buying Lukoil stake in giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, sources say  Reuters
    2. Exclusive: Exxon Mobil approached Iraq about buying Lukoil’s West Qurna oilfield stake, sources say  Reuters
    3. ExxonMobil in talks to buy Russian stake in major Iraqi oil field: Report  thecradle.co
    4. Baghdad invites US firms to replace Lukoil at West Qurna-2  MSN
    5. Iraq opens bidding for major oil field as US sanctions sideline Russian operator  Türkiye Today

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  • Bitcoin rebounds after drawdown hits 20%. Is the crypto winter over or just starting?

    Bitcoin rebounds after drawdown hits 20%. Is the crypto winter over or just starting?

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  • Bobcat sues Caterpillar over construction equipment patents

    Bobcat sues Caterpillar over construction equipment patents

    Dec 2 (Reuters) – Bobcat sued construction equipment rival Caterpillar (CAT.N), opens new tab in Texas federal court and at a U.S. trade tribunal on Tuesday, alleging that technology in many of Caterpillar’s dozers, excavators and other machinery infringes Bobcat’s patents.
    Bobcat said in the complaints, opens new tab that Caterpillar’s construction equipment infringes patents covering technology for improved machine control and agility.

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    Bobcat asked the court for an unspecified amount of monetary damages and the U.S. International Trade Commission for an order blocking imports of Caterpillar’s patent infringing equipment. It also filed related lawsuits against Caterpillar in German district court and at the European Union’s Unified Patent Court.

    Spokespeople for Caterpillar did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Bobcat spokesperson Nadine Erckenbrack said the company seeks to “protect our patented technologies, defend fair competition, and safeguard the innovation and craftsmanship that have defined our company for more than 65 years.”

    Bobcat, which specializes in compact construction equipment, was founded in North Dakota as Melroe Manufacturing Company in 1947 and acquired by South Korea-based Doosan (241560.KS), opens new tab
    in 2007. The lawsuit said that Caterpillar copied Bobcat’s “skid-steer loader” technology for compact machinery.

    “CAT’s use of so many of Bobcat’s patented technologies is consistent with its pattern and practice of identifying and emulating the key features in its competitors’ products,” Bobcat said in the Texas complaint.

    The lawsuits are Doosan Bobcat North America Inc v. Caterpillar Inc, U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, Nos. 2:25-cv-01184 and 2:25-cv-01185; and In the Matter of Certain Skid-Steer Loaders, Compact Track Loaders, Excavators, Wheel Loaders, Dozers and Components Thereof, U.S. International Trade Commission.

    For Bobcat: Sean Pak, Iman Lordgooei, Nathan Hamstra, Marc Kaplan and James Pak of Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan

    For Caterpillar: attorney information not yet available

    Reporting by Blake Brittain in Washington

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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  • Finance can put trade at risk, leaving the global economy ‘on the brink’ – with developing countries hardest hit

    Finance can put trade at risk, leaving the global economy ‘on the brink’ – with developing countries hardest hit

    A new UN Trade and Development report says reforms to global financial systems are key to reducing vulnerability, improving predictability and supporting stronger alignment between trade, finance and development.


    • Globalization is being rewired by geopolitics and policy shifts. The financial system will have to adapt to better serve the real-economy needs.

    • Policy volatility is now a persistent challenge for trade, investment and development.

    • Financial shocks spill over rapidly into the real economy, revealing gaps in the global economic architecture.

    • Developing economies drive global growth but face the highest financing and climate risks.

    • Coordinated reforms linking trade, finance, debt and climate action can restore stability and recentre development.


    Global growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, as global trade and investment face growing pressure from financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, according to UN Trade and Development’s new “Trade and Development Report 2025: On the Brink – Trade, finance and the reshaping of the global economy”. The report shows that shifts in financial markets move global trade almost as strongly as real economic activity, influencing development prospects worldwide.

    UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said the findings show how financial conditions increasingly determine the direction of global trade: “Trade is not just a chain of suppliers. It is also a chain of credit lines, payment systems, currency markets and capital flows.”

    Global trade rose by about 4% early in 2025, driven in part by firms accelerating imports ahead of tariff changes, but also by structural shifts: Services are expanding faster, supported by growth in the digital economy and artificial intelligence, and South–South trade is growing above average. Beneath these factors, underlying trade growth is estimated at between 2.5% and 3% and is expected to ease further as financial conditions influence production and investment decisions more strongly.

    More than 90% of global trade depends on bank finance. Dollar liquidity and cross-border payment systems are also crucial for international trading activities. This deep reliance on financial channels makes trade closely linked to global financial and monetary conditions. A shift in interest rates or investor sentiment in a major financial centre can affect trade volumes worldwide. For developing countries, where access to affordable credit is limited, these financial pressures can undermine otherwise viable trade transactions.

    The report also highlights the increasing role of financial factors of commodity markets, particularly in essential food systems.

     

    For several major food trading companies, more than 75% of income now stems from financial operations rather than the physical movement of goods.

    Developing economies face mounting pressures

    Developing economies are forecast to grow by 4.3%, significantly faster than advanced economies. But they face higher financing costs, greater exposure to sudden shifts in capital flows and rising climate-related financial risks. These factors limit the fiscal and investment space needed to sustain growth.

    The global South accounts for more than 40% of world output, nearly half of global merchandise trade and more than half of global investment inflows.

    Yet its role in global financial markets remains limited. Excluding China, developing countries represent only about 12% of global equity market value and around 6% of global bond issuance.

    Because their domestic financial markets are small, many developing economies rely on external borrowing at significantly higher cost. Borrowing rates of 7% to 11% are common, compared with 1% to 4% in major advanced economies. 

    These elevated costs often reflect structural issues in the international financial architecture rather than economic fundamentals, reducing long-term investment and slowing growth.

    Climate vulnerability adds to financial pressures. Countries repeatedly exposed to extreme weather now pay an estimated 20 billion dollars more each year in interest because lenders perceive them as riskier. Since 2006, these additional premiums have cost climate-vulnerable economies about 212 billion dollars – resources that could have supported social investment or climate adaptation.

    Dollar dominance continues to anchor global finance

    Despite gradual diversification of international reserves, the dollar remains central to global finance. Its share of international payments through SWIFT has risen from 39% to about 50% in five years. 

    The United States also accounts for half of global equity market value and about 40% of global bond issuance. 

    While this provides stability in uncertain periods, it also links developing economies to financial cycles over which they have limited influence.

    Targeted reforms to restore stability and support development

    UNCTAD outlines a set of practical reforms aimed at reducing financial vulnerability, improving predictability and supporting stronger alignment between trade, finance and development. The report calls for:

    • Fix the multilateral trade dispute system so rules are enforced and uncertainty is reduced.
    • Update trade rules for today’s economy; including services, digital trade, climate action and new industrial strategies.
    • Close data gaps on trade and investment statistics to better inform and coordinate policies.
    • Reform the international monetary system to limit harmful swings in currencies and capital flows.
    • Strengthen regional and domestic capital markets so developing countries can raise affordable long-term finance.
    • Use macroprudential tools (rules that reduce negative financial spillovers) to better protect trade and investment.
    • Improve transparency in commodity trading and expand access to affordable trade finance, especially for small businesses.

    Rebeca Grynspan said reconnecting trade and finance is essential for lasting stability: “What does genuine resilience require? Integrated policy frameworks that recognize links between trade, finance and sustainability.” She added that coordinated reforms can strengthen long-term development prospects: “Fundamentally, we cannot understand trade isolated from finance.”

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  • Billionaire Dell family to seed Trump accounts for kids with $250

    Billionaire Dell family to seed Trump accounts for kids with $250

    Natalie ShermanBusiness reporter

    Getty Images Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell at a 2025 event promoting Trump accounts Getty Images

    Tech billionaire Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, have announced plans to donate $250 to 25 million children across the US.

    The $6.25bn (£4.72bn) gift will bolster Trump-branded investment accounts, which were authorised by Congress as part of its tax and spending bill earlier this year with the aim of encouraging families save for retirement.

    As part of that scheme, babies born between 2025 and 2028 are also eligible to receive $1,000 from the government.

    The Dells said their gift, which targets children age 10 and under, was intended to help seed those accounts and expand the savings opportunity to even more children.

    “We’ve seen what happens when a child gets even a small financial headstart – their world expands,” Michael Dell said in a video on social media announcing the donation.

    Unlike the government plan, the Dells said children age 10 and under, who were born before 1 January 2025 were eligible for their gift, provided they live in areas where the median income is below $150,000.

    The Dells said they expected the gift to reach almost 80% of children age 10 and under in the US. It is among the largest ever private donations to go directly to Americans.

    Dell, the chief executive of Dell Technologies with a fortune that Forbes estimates at almost $150bn, also urged other philanthropists and employers to make similar commitments.

    “Two great people. I love Dell!!!” President Donald Trump wrote in all capital letters on social media in response to the announcement.

    How Trump accounts work

    The money will be routed through the new Trump-branded accounts, which by law must be invested in an index fund that reflects the wider stock market.

    It is not currently possible to set up a Trump account. The government has said that process will launch next year, with more details available at that time.

    Parents are eligible to contribute up to $5,000 in after-tax funds to the accounts, a figure that will be adjusted for inflation, with employers, charitable organisations and others also able to donate.

    The child can access the money at age 18 at which point the account converts into a retirement account. While the money grows tax free, withdrawals are subject to taxes and possibly a penalty if made before the age of 59 and a half.

    The White House Council of Economic Advisers earlier this year estimated that $1,000 could grow to more than $5,800 over the course of 18 years, assuming a 10.3% rate of return.

    When they were created earlier this year, the Trump accounts met with significant scepticism from critics, who argued that the accounts would primarily benefit better off families, who have extra money to set aside, while being less flexible than other, existing savings vehicles.

    The Tax Foundation, a think tank focused on tax policy, on Tuesday said that Trump accounts were “well intentioned” but would “add another layer to an already overcomplicated savings account system in the United States”.

    “Trump Accounts do not offer much of an additional incentive to save,” it added. “Rather, the main benefit is in the form of the $1,000 initial deposit from the federal government and whatever employers choose to contribute.”

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also drew criticism from Democrats after promoting the scheme as a way to support alternatives to government-funded retirement benefits, calling it a “backdoor to privatizing Social Security”.

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