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AstraZeneca’s chief executive Pascal Soriot has reportedly said that he would like to shift the company’s stock market listing from the UK to the US.
The boss of Britain’s most valuable listed company has spoken privately about a preference to move the listing to New York, the Times reported. It added that he had also considered moving the company’s domicile.
The FTSE 100 company’s share price rose by 2.8% on Tuesday, with most of the increase happening after the story was published.
A shift in AstraZeneca’s listing would deal a major blow to the London Stock Exchange, which has already had to deal with a series of departures by companies seeking higher valuations. Among those who have left the FTSE 100 in recent years are equipment rental company Ashtead, Paddy Power bookmaker owner Flutter Entertainment, building materials supplier CRH and packaging company Smurfit Westrock.
A shift by AstraZeneca would almost certainly face opposition by the UK government, although it would not have the power to formally block a move. Labour made life sciences one of its key growth sectors in its industrial strategy published last month.
A spokesperson for AstraZeneca declined to comment.
AstraZeneca is thought to have expressed frustrations privately with the rejection of its breast cancer drug, Enhertu, by the NHS on cost grounds. Earlier this year, the company, headquartered in Cambridge, caused consternation in government by pulling out of a £450m project to produce vaccines in Speke, Liverpool, while saying that the business case did not make sense without more financial support from government.
Soriot has overseen the market value of AstraZeneca more than tripling since he took over in October 2012. The company has overtaken oil company Shell – also seen as a contender for a move to the US – and HSBC, a bank, with a market value of £157bn.
The US is the world’s biggest pharmaceutical market, with by far the highest spending per person on medicines despite having a lower life expectancy than several other countries. UK executives have long complained that their companies are undervalued compared with American counterparts.
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Soriot has emphasised the company’s ambitions to grow in the US. In November, he told investors that “we want to see even more growth in the US over the next few years as part of our 2030 ambition,” according to a transcript from data company Alphasense. The “US is, of course, a very important market and that supports innovation, and we will continue to invest to grow fast in this part of the world,” Soriot said.
The chief executive’s pay has increased in line with AstraZeneca’s market value. He has been the highest-paid chief executive on the FTSE 100 for two years running, receiving £16.85m for 2023, up from £15.3m in 2022.
LONDON (Reuters) -Trading of derivatives contracts that provide investors with protection against UK company defaults jumped almost 50% in the first quarter of 2025 to more than $2 trillion, an International Swaps and Derivatives Association report showed on Tuesday.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
Credit default swaps trading reported in the UK rose by 47% to $2.3 trillion, from $1.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, trade body ISDA reported.
The volume of insurance protection investors took out on UK corporate bonds in the first quarter illustrates the scale of unease ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping import tariffs on April 2.
While a UK/U.S. trade deal has since been signed, tariff uncertainty is a headwind for corporates globally as a July 9 U.S. deadline for other countries to strike deals looms.
The effective U.S. tariff rate based on announced policies has climbed to 13% from 3% at the start of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said last week.
Even if some of the harshest levies are rolled back, higher effective tariffs this year could still drive up inflation and cut into company profits and consumer spending.
KEY QUOTE
“Single-name CDS activity was particularly prevalent in the UK, making up 98% of European traded notional, compared to 2% in the EU,” the ISDA report said.
This week, trade tensions topped a list of investor concerns alongside deepening worries over a potential global recession, a Bank of America investor survey showed on Monday.
BY THE NUMBERS
Notional European CDS trading rose 28% to $3 trillion in the first quarter compared to $2.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, driven by heightened activity in index CDS, ISDA said.
UK-reported trades represented roughly 75% of total European CDS notional trading, and almost 82% of the total trade count, while the EU accounted for around 25% and 18%, respectively, the report said.
GRAPHIC
(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie. Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Mark Potter)
The Federal Reserve would have cut interest rates by now if President Donald Trump’s tariffs weren’t so substantial, central bank chief Jerome Powell said Tuesday.
Trump’s ever-changing tariff agenda has caused months of deep uncertainty for global markets and businesses. Many have struggled to make predictions and plan ahead for duties that have shifted, sometimes with no warning other than social media posts by the president.
“Chair, would the Fed have cut [rates] more by now if it weren’t for the tariffs?” Bloomberg News anchor Francine Lacqua asked Powell at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
“So I do think that’s right,” Powell responded. “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs. We didn’t overreact. In fact we didn’t react at all, we’re simply taking some time.”
The Fed chair’s comments underscored a stance he has stuck to despite unrelenting, norm-shattering attacks by Trump and his top allies urging the central bank to lower interest rates. The pressure campaign has led Powell to repeatedly defend the central bank’s independence from political influence — a position the Supreme Court appeared to bolster in a ruling last month — along with the decision to hold rates steady.
“As long as the U.S. economy is in solid shape, the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what the effect might be,” Powell said Tuesday. “We haven’t seen effects much from tariffs, and we didn’t expect to by now. We have always said the timing, amount and persistence would be highly uncertain.” He added that the import taxes’ ultimate impact on the economy could wind up being either greater or less than currently anticipated.
Hours after Powell’s remarks, Trump renewed his rebukes of him, telling reporters in Florida that “anybody” would be better than him as head of the central bank.
Powell declined to weigh in on the likelihood of a July rate cut: “It’s going to depend on the data.”
Asked about the impact of Trump’s insult-laden criticism, Powell said, “I’m very focused on just doing my job.” He said the only two things that matter to him and fellow rate-setting officials are full employment and price stability — the two sides of the Fed’s so-called “dual mandate.” The ECB conference attendees applauded his response.
Trump has expanded his attacks on Powell to the committee that sets interest rates, saying on Monday that its members should be “ashamed” of current U.S. monetary policy. “The Board just sits there and watches, so they are equally to blame. We should be paying 1% Interest, or better,” Trump posted on social media.
In fact, the Federal Open Market Committee members vote during each of their meetings on whether to adjust interest rates after spending a day deliberating. Afterward, many voting members often explain their rationale for supporting or opposing the committee’s decision, including in speeches or written papers.
Trump appointed Powell to lead the Fed during his first term in office. He also named two of its current board members, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller.
Asked in Sintra how she would handle political pressure akin to what Powell has faced, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, “I think we would do exactly the same thing as our colleague Jay Powell does.” Other panelists, who included governors of the central banks of Korea and Japan, said they agreed with Lagarde, drawing further applause.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said administration officials have discussed appointing the next Fed chair to the earliest board seat available. The term of Biden-appointee Adriana Kugler ends in January 2026, meaning “an October, November” nomination, according to Bessent.
Powell would not say Tuesday whether he planned to remain on the board of the Federal Reserve System after his term as chair ends in May 2026. He could remain as a board member until January 2028, if he chooses to.
“I want to hand over to my successor an economy in good shape,” Powell said.
CORRECTION (July 1, 2024, 1:40 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated when Powell’s term ends as Fed chairman. It is in May 2026, not May 2025.
PARIS (Reuters) -New car registrations in France slid 6.7% in June from a year earlier to 169,504 vehicles, data from French car body PFA showed on Tuesday.
Tesla sales fell 10.04% to 3,646 vehicles last month. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla’s sales have slumped by 39.59% while the French market overall has shrunk by 7.94% over the same period.
(Reporting by Makini Brice, Editing by Dominique vidalon)
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Ken Griffin’s hedge fund Citadel has been outshone by smaller rivals so far this year, as the firm was stung by the market volatility unleashed by Donald Trump’s trade war.
Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund gained 2.5 per cent in the first half of 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter. Balyasny and ExodusPoint were up 7.3 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively, according to people who have seen the figures.
Citadel, which manages around $66bn, is one of the dominant players among so-called multi-manager funds, a sector that has sucked in billions of dollars from the world’s largest investors. Balyasny and ExodusPoint manage roughly $25bn and $11bn respectively.
Multi-manager firms have legions of trading teams known as “pods”, which trade a variety of strategies in asset classes including equities, fixed income and commodities. They borrow large sums from banks to juice returns and adhere to strict risk management to control losses, making them attractive to big investors such as pension funds that desire stable returns.
Citadel was wrongfooted by Trump’s tariff policies earlier this year, with Griffin saying in May that the firm had to “tear apart and re-examine the portfolio . . . and ask yourself in what ways we have positioned or mispositioned ourselves against the reality that the odds of a recession have gone higher”.
Last year, Citadel eclipsed most rivals as it delivered 15.1 per cent to investors. It’s annualised net return since the firm was founded 35 years ago is roughly 19.2 per cent.
Detainment at the border. Costly handover fees. Elongated lead times. These are just three common challenges associated with an inefficient customs process. But what if a simple process change could help you avoid these issues?
When you book ocean shipments with Maersk, you can add customs to your booking at the same time and help your supply chain be ready for anything. Below, we focus on three companies who did just that and explore the competitive advantages this brought them.
Rooting out the hidden costs associated with customs
To many businesses, customs is just a transaction. Based on the type of product you’re shipping and where you’re shipping to customs duties, VAT or other import taxes can impact the total cost of the shipment.
But in the context of a global supply chain, processing the goods through customs only make up a small part of the financial story. There are other costs that might be hiding within the process. For example, if you use one third-party provider for shipping and another for customs handling, handover fees might also be associated with the cargo’s journey from origin to end destination. The bigger your operations, the more these handover fees can escalate.
These costs can be found in what McKinsey & Company calls “blind handovers” in the supply chain. Analysis from the consulting firm finds that between 13-19% of logistics costs could stem from these interactions. In the UK alone, such supply chain inefficiencies cost the economy over £12 billion in lost revenue per year.
McKinsey analysis finds that between 13 and 19% of logistics costs could stem from inefficient supply chain interactions.
In relation to customs handling , the implications from blind handovers could include demurrage and detention fees or additional transport costs if original pick-up slots were missed, which could then result in missed sales opportunities. However, when you add customs to your ocean shipments with Maersk, you reduce the risk of delays and hidden costs considerably.
One company that benefits from this approach is world-leading automotive manufacturer, TATA Motors. With an integrated logistics solution that includes both ocean and customs, centred on “timely clearances and efficient coordination,” TATA can stick to the agreed timelines for deliveries to a range of overseas markets.
This partnership now forms the backbone of our seamless operations, enabling us to meet the demands in all markets within stipulated lead times, while simultaneously maintaining quality and optimising costs.
Keeping your supply chain moving
In addition to the financial implications of blind handovers, the inefficiencies can also significantly impact the speed and flow of a supply chain.
The need to manage multiple third parties and oversee your cargo changing hands introduces the risk of delays into the process; whereas when you book ocean and customs together, you ensure smooth and efficient customs handling. In fact, Maersk’s customs specialists can prepare your customs documents ahead of your cargo arriving at the border, to minimize the risk of hold ups to your supply chain.
Take frozen fruit snack disruptor Pukpip, for instance. The brand needs to transport frozen bananas from Ecuador to the UK in perfect condition so that they can turn them into their range of delicious frozen fruit snacks.
To make this possible, Pukpip books their Maersk Ocean shipments online, and because they can add customs to the service, Maersk is able to process the documentation at the right time and ensure the cargo is released quickly when it arrives in the UK.
Pukpip Founder, Zara Godfrey, had this to say on the business results: “It’s easier, especially when you’re a small brand, to have one partner do both ocean freight and customs. We trust Maersk to collect the goods, which will arrive on time in great condition, and clear customs. Plus if there are ever any short delays at customs, Maersk ensure the goods are never left to melt.”
Simplifying your supply chain responsibilities
Perhaps the most obvious advantage of this integrated approach is that you get one point of contact for your customs clearance needs.
With a one-stop shop for ocean and customs bookings, it becomes easier to manage your operations, increasing control by reducing your administrative workload and providing more time to focus on higher-value activities.
For Norwegian retailer Europris, this control was critical to consolidating supply chain operations. The discounter wanted a logistics partner that could handle both their ocean and customs requirements, and with Maersk’s digital solutions they enhanced control over cargo flows and allowed for timely compliance.
This integrated approach has helped us streamline our supply chain processes, stay on top of demand and reduce much of the hassle associated with having multiple logistics partners.
Partner with Maersk for a seamless supply chain
Timely customs processes are vital for the flow of a supply chain, and essential for goods being able to pass efficiently through ports. Yet often, this activity is managed separately from ocean shipments, and this can introduce unnecessary risks to operations.
As the customer testimonials in this article have shown, adding customs to ocean bookings is a simple but effective way of minimising your administrative burden and the risk of additional costs and delays.
By partnering with Maersk for both your customs and ocean transport needs, you can benefit from our deep multidisciplinary expertise, global reach and network of owned assets, enabling you to streamline your supply chain and increase speed over the border with total confidence.
To find out how our experts can support you with your customs challenges, touch base with us.
Hello, and welcome to TechScape. If you need me after this newsletter publishes, I will be busy poring over photos from Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez’s wedding, the gaudiest and most star-studded affair to disrupt technology news this year. I found it a tacky and spectacular affair. Everyone who was anyone was there, except for Charlize Theron, who, unprompted, said on Monday: “I think we might be the only people who did not get an invite to the Bezos wedding. But that’s OK, because they suck and we’re cool.”
AI companies start winning the copyright fight
Last week, tech companies notched several victories in the fight over their use of copyrighted text to create artificial intelligence products.
Anthropic: A US judge has ruled that Anthropic, maker of the Claude chatbot, use of books to train its artificial intelligence system – without permission of the authors – did not breach copyright law. Judge William Alsup compared the Anthropic model’s use of books to a “reader aspiring to be a writer.”
And the next day, Meta: The US district judge Vince Chhabria, in San Francisco, said in his decision on the Meta case that the authors had not presented enough evidence that the technology company’s AI would cause “market dilution” by flooding the market with work similar to theirs.
The same day that Meta received its favorable ruling, a group of writers sued Microsoft, alleging copyright infringement in the creation of that company’s Megatron text generator. Judging by the rulings in favor of Meta and Anthropic, the authors are facing an uphill battle.
These three cases are skirmishes in the wider legal war over copyrighted media, which rages on. Three weeks ago, Disney and NBC Universal sued Midjourney, alleging that the company’s namesake AI image generator and forthcoming video generator made illegal use of the studios’ iconic characters like Darth Vader and the Simpson family. The world’s biggest record labels – Sony, Universal, and Warner – have sued two companies that make AI-powered music generators, Suno and Udio. On the textual front, the New York Times’ suit against OpenAI and Microsoft is ongoing.
The lawsuits over AI-generated text were filed first, and, as their rulings emerge, the next question in the copyright fight is whether decisions about one type of media will apply to the next.
“The specific media involved in the lawsuit – written works versus images versus videos versus audio – will certainly change the fair use analysis in each case,” said John Strand, a trademark and copyright attorney with the law firm Wolf Greenfield. “The impact on the market for the copyrighted works is becoming a key factor in the fair use analysis, and the market for books is different than that for movies.”
To Strand, the cases over images seem more favorable to copyright holders, as the AI models are allegedly producing identical images to the copyrighted ones in the training data.
A bizarre and damning fact was revealed in the Anthropic ruling, too: the company had pirated and stored some 7m books to create a training database for its AI. To remediate its wrongdoing, the company bought physical copies and scanned them, digitizing the text. Now the owner of 7 million physical books that no longer held any utility, Anthropic destroyed them. The company bought the books, diced them up, scanned the text, and threw them away, Ars Technica reports. There are less destructive ways to digitize books, but they are slower. The AI industry is here to move fast and break things.
Anthropic laying waste to millions of books presents a crude literalization of the ravenous consumption of content necessary for AI companies to create their products.
AI and the environment: bad news
An update on last week’s stories: Trump’s phone
Composite: The Guardian/Getty/Trump Mobile/Trump Watches/Ebay
Two stories I wrote about last week saw significant updates in the ensuing days.
The website for Trump’s gold phone, “T1”, has dropped its “Made in America” pledge in favor of “proudly American” and “brought to life in America”, per the Verge.
Trump seems to have followed the example of Apple, which skirts the issue of origin but still emphasizes the American-ness of iPhones by engraving them with “Designed in California.” What is unsaid: Assembled in China or India, and sourced from many other countries. It seems Trump and his family have opted for a similar evasive tagline, though it’s been thrown into much starker relief by their original promise.
The third descriptor that now appears on Trump’s phone site, “American-Proud Design”, seems most obviously cued by Apple.
The tagline “Made in the USA” carries legal weight. Companies have faced lawsuits over just how many of their products’ parts were produced in the US, and the US’ main trade regulator has established standards by which to judge the actions behind the slogan. It would be extremely difficult for a smartphone’s manufacturing history to measure up to those benchmarks, by the vast majority of expert estimations.
Though Trump intends to repatriate manufacturing in the US with his sweeping tariffs, he seems to be learning just what other phone companies already know. It is complicated and limiting to make a phone solely in the US, and doing so forces severe constraints on the final product.
Read last week’s newsletter about the gold Trump phone.
… and online age checks
Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Last week, I wrote about Pornhub’s smutty return to France after a law requiring online age verification was suspended there. This week, the US supreme court ruled in favor of an age-check law passed in Texas. Pornhub has blocked access to anyone in Texas in protest for the better part of two years, as it did in France for three weeks. Clarence Thomas summed up the court’s reasoning:
“HB 1181 simply requires adults to verify their age before they can access speech that is obscene to children,” Clarence Thomas wrote in the court’s 6-3 majority opinion. “The statute advances the state’s important interest in shielding children from sexually explicit content. And, it is appropriately tailored because it permits users to verify their ages through the established methods of providing government-issued identification and sharing transactional data.”
Elena Kagan dissented alongside the court’s two other liberal justices.
The ruling affirms not only Texas’s law but the statutes of nearly two dozen states that have implemented online age checks. The tide worldwide seems to be shifting away from allowing freer access to pornography as part of a person’s right to free expression and more towards curtailing
Experts believe the malleable definition of obscenity – the Texas law requires an age check for any site whose content is more than a third sexual material – will be weaponized against online information on sexual health, abortion or LGBTQ identity, all in the name of child protection.
“It’s an unfortunate day for the supporters of an open internet,” said GS Hans, professor at Cornell Law School. “The court has made a radical shift in free speech jurisprudence in this case, though it doesn’t characterize its decision that way. By upholding the limits on minors’ access to obscenity – a notoriously difficult category to define – that also creates limits on adult access, we can expect to see states take a heavier hand in regulating content.”
I’ll be closely watching what happens in July when Pornhub willingly implements age checks in compliance with the Online Services Act.
Read more: UK study shows 8% of children aged eight to 14 have viewed online pornography
Read more AI news
This week in AI: new WhatsApp summaries and Nobel winners’ genomic model
The WhatsApp logo. Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP
New features are a dime a dozen, but even a small tweak to the most popular messaging app in the world may amount to a major shift. WhatsApp will begin showing you AI-generated summaries of your unread messages, per the Verge.
Apple tried message summaries. They did not work. The company pulled them. For a firm famed for its calculated and controlled releases, the retraction of the summaries was a humiliation. The difference between Apple and Meta, though, is that Meta has consistently released AI products for multiple years now.
In other AI news, I am rarely captivated by new technologies, but a recent release by Google’s DeepMind AI laboratory seems promising for healthcare. Google DeepMind has released AlphaGenome, an AI meant to “comprehensively and accurately predicts how single variants or mutations in human DNA sequences impact a wide range of biological processes regulating genes,” per a press release. The creators of AlphaGenome previously won the Nobel prize in chemistry for AlphaFold, a software that predicts the structures of proteins.
A major question that hovers over Crispr, another Nobel-winning innovation, is what changes in a person when a genetic sequence is modified. AlphaGenome seems poised to assist in solving that mystery.
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Invest long, borrow short and leverage up as much as possible. That is the way to make money in finance. It is how banks have always made their living. But we also know very well that this story can end in panic-stricken runs for the exit and financial crises. That is what happened in the great financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-09. Since then, as the Bank for International Settlements explains in its latest Annual Economic Report, the financial system has changed a great deal. But this central characteristic has not.
Moreover, notes Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser to the BIS, “despite the fragmentation of the real economy, the monetary and financial system is now more tightly connected than ever”. If this sounds like an accident waiting to happen, you are quite right. Central banks must be prepared to ride to the rescue.
The story the BIS tells is an intriguing one. Thus, the aftermath of the GFC did not make the system fundamentally different. It just changed who was involved. In the run-up to the crisis, the dominant form of lending was to the private sector, particularly in the form of mortgages. Afterwards, lending to the private sector levelled off, while credit to governments exploded. The pandemic accelerated that tendency.
That was not surprising: if people want to save and lend, someone else has to borrow and spend. That is macroeconomics 101. In addition to the change in direction came a change in intermediaries: in place of the big banks have come global portfolio managers. (See charts.)
As a result, cross-border bond holdings have increased enormously. What matters here are changes in gross, not net, holdings. The latter are relevant to long-term sustainability of macroeconomic patterns of saving and spending. The former are more relevant to financial stability, because they drive (and are driven by) changes in financial leverage, notably cross-border leverage. Moreover, notes Shin, “the largest increases in portfolio holdings have been between advanced economies, especially between the US and Europe”. The emerging economies are relatively less involved in this lending.
How then does this new cross-border financial system work? It has two fundamental characteristics: the leading roles of foreign currency swaps and non-bank financial intermediaries.
The biggest part of this cross-border lending consists of the purchase of dollar bonds, particularly US Treasuries. The foreign institutions buying these bonds, such as pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds, end up with a dollar asset and a domestic currency liability. Currency hedging is essential. The banking sector plays a key role, by enabling the market for foreign exchange swaps, which provide these hedges. Moreover, a forex swap is a “collateralised borrowing operation”. Yet these do not appear on balance sheets.
According to the BIS, outstanding forex swaps (including forwards and currency swaps) reached $111tn at the end of 2024, with forex swaps and forwards accounting for some two-thirds of that amount. This is vastly more than cross-border bank claims ($40tn) and international bonds ($29tn). Moreover, the market’s largest and fastest-growing part consists of contracts with non-dealer institutions. Finally, some 90 per cent of forex swaps have the dollar on one side of the transaction and over three-quarters have a maturity of less than one year.
As the BIS notes, this highly non-transparent set of cross-border funding arrangements also affects the transmission of monetary policy. One of the propositions it makes is that the greater role of non-bank financial intermediaries, notably hedge funds “may have contributed to more correlated financial conditions across countries”. Some of this is quite subtle. Given the large-scale foreign ownership of US bonds, for example, conditions in the owners’ home markets can be transmitted to the US. Again, exchange rate movements that affect the dollar value of holdings of emerging market debts can trigger adjustments in their domestic prices.
What are the risks in this new system of finance? As has been noted, banks are active in the market for forex swaps. They also provide much of the repo financing for hedge funds speculating actively in the bond market. Moreover, according to the BIS, over 70 per cent of the bilateral repo financing from banks is at zero haircut. As a result, lenders have very little control over the leverage of the hedge funds active in these markets. Not least, non-US banks are active in providing dollar funding for firms engaged in these markets.
What does all this imply? Well, we now have tightly integrated financial systems, especially among high-income countries, even as the countries are moving apart, politically and in terms of their trade relations. Moreover, much of the funding is in dollars on relatively short maturities. It is easy to imagine conditions in which funding dries up, perhaps in response to large movements in bond yields or some other shock. As happened in the GFC and the pandemic, the Federal Reserve would have to step in as lender of last resort, both directly and via swap lines to other central banks, notably those in Europe. We assume that the Fed would indeed come to the rescue. But can that be taken for granted, especially after Jay Powell is replaced next year?
The system the BIS elucidates has much of the fragility of traditional banking, but even less transparency. We have a vast number of unregulated businesses taking highly leveraged positions, funded on a short-term basis, to invest in long-term assets whose market values may vary substantially even if their capital values are ultimately safe. This system demands an active lender of last resort and a willingness to sustain deep international co-operation in a crisis. It should work. But will it?
Gold prices climb as US fiscal concerns over Trump’s proposed tax bill support bullion gains.
Fed Chair Powell comments on monetary policy at the ECB Forum, maintaining a data-dependent stance.
XAU/USD trades near $3,350 after US ISM and JOTS data beat estimates, raising expectations for a September rate cut.
Gold prices are rallying on Tuesday as traders digest remarks from policymakers currently gathered at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum in Portugal.
Focus has been on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been facing increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce interest rates in July.
Despite Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments and better-than-expected US economic data, which have helped limit US Dollar losses, XAU/USD continues to trade around $3,350 at the time of writing.
Fed Powell’s comments included, “As long as the US economy is in solid shape, we think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be.”
So far, Powell has adhered to the cautious script, but investors are aware that this could shift quickly if the data dictates otherwise.
Additionally, Powell stated that “It’s going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”
These comments suggest that the Fed is not rushing to cut rates, increasing the potential for a September cut. With the US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTs data beating expectations, a resilient US data remains supportive of a more data-dependent Fed, limiting US Dollar losses.
Global policymakers gather at the ECB forum, a key event for Gold
The focus on Tuesday was on the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, currently underway in Sintra, Portugal. This rare convergence of the world’s top central bankers offers a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.
ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are currently speaking on monetary policy.
The joint appearance is more than symbolic. Previous Forums have triggered coordinated messaging or revealed stark divergences in policy outlooks that have moved major asset classes, including Gold, currencies, and bonds.
With central banks navigating a delicate balance between inflation control and slowing growth, any nuance in today’s remarks could set the tone for the third quarter.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 48.8 for June. The June data came in above expectations at 49, rising from 48.5 in May.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), where economists had expected around 7.3 million open positions as of May 31. Instead, the latest report revealed that job vacancies rose by 7.769 million, reflecting a resilient US labour market.
President Donald Trump’s escalating criticism of Powell, including another sharply worded post on Truth Social on Monday, has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence.
Trump’s post read, “Jerome – You are, as usual, ‘too late.’ You have cost the USA a fortune – and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!”
The rhetoric has fueled speculation that Powell may either shift his tone or face replacement.
That prospect has pressured real yields lower and driven fresh demand for Gold as a hedge against policy uncertainty and US Dollar weakness.
President Trump issued a handwritten note with his signature to Fed Powell on Monday. The letter said that “Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost! No inflation”.
Many now expect a shift toward looser monetary policy, which is putting downward pressure on real yields and making Gold more attractive.
At the same time, the Trump administration’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” with its estimated $3.3 trillion impact on the deficit, is sparking fears over long-term fiscal health.
The bill has drawn fire from across the political spectrum, including from Elon Musk and several Democratic leaders, who warn it could lead to inflation and a weaker US Dollar. Such a backdrop often prompts investors to turn to Gold as a hedge against instability and currency depreciation. The Senate is currently pushing to have the bill approved by Friday.
With a July 9 tariff deadline fast approaching, the US is focusing on smaller, step-by-step trade deals rather than sweeping agreements, aiming to avoid triggering new tariffs.
While partial progress has been made with countries like the UK and China, talks with Japan and the European Union are still unsettled. The EU has shown openness to a blanket 10% tariff but is pushing for exceptions in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Meanwhile, President Trump has taken aim at Japan’s trade approach, especially on rice, warning that new tariffs may be imposed if no deal is reached in time.
Trump expressed his frustration on Monday following a dispute over Japan’s reluctance to import rice from the US, which resulted in the US President stating that Japan has been “spoiled with respect to the United States of America.”
All of this contributes to an environment where Gold looks relatively safe. Add to that the possibility of technical breakouts and increased buying interest, and it’s no surprise prices are pushing higher.
Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD bounces off trendline support, opening the potential for a retest of $3,400
After falling to trendline support from the January low on Monday, failure to gain traction below $3,250 allowed bulls to regain control of the imminent trend. With the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently providing support for the yellow metal at $3,320, XAU/USD is now threatening a break of the 20-day SMA at $3,351. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-high move provides an additional barrier of resistance near $3,371.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, rising back above the neutral zone and pointing higher. This suggests a modest bullish bias. With the Gold price threatening the 20-day SMA, a clear break of $3,351 and a move above $3,371 could see prices retest the major psychological level of $3,400.
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
If bullish momentum fades and prices slip below $3,300, the 38.2% Fibo level could come into play at $3,292, with a deeper pullback driving Gold to the midpoint of the April move at $3,328.
