By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Nov. 17.
Now that the longest ever U.S. government shutdown has finally ended, attention is turning to when key data will be released following a string of delays as investors remain uncertain over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
Inflation data in the U.K. and Canada will be watched closely. In Asia, markets will closely monitor a range of economic data releases, with particular focus on key indicators from Japan, China and Australia.
U.S.
As the U.S. government reopens, investors will be looking out for announcements on which U.S. economic data are due to be released and when.
The market's relief at the shutdown ending proved brief as investors turned cautious amid uncertainty about when key data, especially jobs figures, will be released and how reliable it will be. This leaves investors uncertain about whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
Two major government reports on inflation and the labor market for October are "likely never" to be released, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday.
The Fed recently cut interest rates but Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut wasn't a foregone conclusion. Several Federal Reserve members have since suggested interest rates could stay unchanged next month, although there are still some calling for unchanged rates. U.S. money markets currently price a roughly equal chance of a rate cut in December versus unchanged rates, LSEG data show.
It is "no secret that the Fed remains divided and cautious," FP Markets chief market analyst Aaron Hill said in a note.
"Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have been pared back significantly … which could provide some support to the currency and yields," Naga market analyst Frank Walbaum said in a note.
Meanwhile, however, recent U.S. jobs data from ADP and Challenger were weak, raising concerns that the economy could be weakening and leaving the outlook uncertain.
Policymakers' cautious tone and the upcoming flood of economic releases could still leave the dollar vulnerable to falls, with its direction likely to hinge on the strength or weakness of the data, Walbaum said.
Minutes from the October Fed meeting on Wednesday will be closely scrutinized. Other data due include purchasing managers' figures and the University of Michigan final consumer confidence survey for November on Friday.
Canada
Canada releases its October inflation data on Monday.
The minutes of the Bank of Canada's last meeting in October noted that inflation exceeded the central bank's expectations in September, rising to 2.4%. The BOC cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% at that meeting but some policymakers pushed to hold off on another cut until a later date so they could have a better gauge of inflation risks and labor market weakness, the minutes showed. That means upcoming data, including Monday's inflation report, will be key.
Eurozone
In a quiet week for data releases, flash estimate eurozone PMI data for France, Germany and the eurozone for November will be in focus.
The European Commission's autumn economic forecast for the EU will also be released on Monday.
German producer price index for October and eurozone flash consumer confidence indicator for November are due on Thursday, while France's monthly business survey and Spanish industrial orders data are due on Friday.
"We see more scope for an improvement in the eurozone than in the U.K. as political uncertainty was dialed down in France at the same time as budget fears mounted in the U.K.," Investec's Sandra Horsfield said in a note. ""Longer-term, both countries face clear fiscal consolidation needs."
Slovakia and Finland will hold bond auctions on Tuesday, followed by Greece on Wednesday and Spain and France on Thursday.
U.K.
Focus in the U.K. will center on any further commentary on possible measures at the U.K. budget on Nov. 26, as well as U.K. inflation data for October on Wednesday.
The Financial Times reported that the Labour government has dropped plans to raise income taxes, causing gilt yields to rise and sterling to fall.
"The decision to drop the income tax hike could be viewed as the Labour leadership prioritizing their popularity with the public and the stability of the Labour party over doing what is best to restore confidence in the public finances," MUFG Bank analyst Lee Hardman said in a note.
As well as the budget, U.K. inflation data will be key as investors are looking for further evidence of whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates again next month after recent weak jobs and gross domestic product data.
U.K. money markets are currently pricing an 84% chance that the BOE will cut rates next month, LSEG data show, though some analysts expect that rates won't be reduced until February.
Producer price data for October are also due Wednesday, while flash estimate purchasing managers' surveys for November will be released Friday.
The U.K. plans two sales by programmatic gilt tender in the coming week, one of a 2030 gilt on Tuesday and another of a 2052 gilt on Thursday. An auction of the October 2035 gilt will take place Wednesday.
Hungary
The Hungarian central bank announces a policy decision on Tuesday. The market is pricing in an 81% chance that interest rates will be held steady at 6.5%, LSEG data show.
"Looking further ahead, we still do not anticipate any interest rate cuts this year or in the first half of next year, given that the Monetary Council remains focused on addressing high inflation expectations," ING economists said in a note.
Furthermore, recent developments could increase inflation, they said. This includes the government raising its deficit targets for 2025 and 2026 to allow for increased spending ahead of April's parliamentary elections.
Scandinavia
The U.S. Treasury will sell $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $19 billion in 10-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
South Africa
The South African central bank will announce its policy decision on Thursday.
Standard Chartered expects another 25 basis-point interest-rate cut to 6.75%. "Another benign set of inflation data in September reinforced the restrictiveness of current policy in real terms," Standard Chartered analyst Razia Khan said in a note.
Citi analysts also expect a rate cut. "The budget deficit narrowed slightly, debt stabilization is still to be achieved this year and a significant issuance reduction is underway," they said in a note.
Japan
Japan's economy is expected to have contracted in the July-September quarter, with government data on Monday likely to show 0.6% quarter-over-quarter decline in real GDP, according to economists polled by data provider Quick. The contraction is partly attributed to the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.
Market participants will also be focused on Friday's inflation data, which is expected to show consumer prices excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% in October, matching the pace from September and remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% price target. This persistent inflation could reinforce expectations that the BOJ may soon resume tightening, especially after recent indications that the central bank may be preparing to shift its policy stance.
Also on Wednesday, October trade data and September machinery orders are slated for release. These will provide further insights into the health of Japan's economy amid global uncertainties.
The Bank of Japan is expected to make outright purchases of government bonds on Thursday, which could help support the domestic bond market. Meanwhile, the ministry of finance will auction about 250 billion yen of 10-year inflation-indexed bonds on Monday, followed by a 20-year JGB auction on Wednesday. Investor interest may be stronger for the 30-year debt sale, where higher yields are expected.
China
Markets will turn their attention to the People's Bank of China, which is set to announce the country's benchmark lending rate on Thursday.
With China likely on track to meet its full-year growth target and banks' net interest margins near record lows, Citi economists expect the PBOC to leave rates unchanged in November. They forecast no further cuts for the remainder of the year, but anticipate a 20-basis-point cut in 2026.
Investors will also be monitoring Monday's foreign direct investment data, which is expected to show a decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economy.
Australia
Australian bond traders will be looking for clues from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding the economic outlook and potential rate cuts. Minutes from the RBA's October meeting, due Tuesday, are expected to highlight the central bank's concerns about inflation and confirm that conditions in the economy are robust enough to rule out further rate cuts for now.
Recent data has shown strong economic momentum, with falling unemployment and a sharp rise in lending for new housing. Additionally, consumer confidence has surged, further reinforcing the RBA's cautious outlook. On Thursday, RBA's chief economist Sarah Hunter will speak, where she is expected to extend the hawkish message.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with analysts widely expecting the central bank to hold rates steady to stabilize the rupiah. Citi analyst Helmi Arman thinks continued bond outflows, tight yield differentials and pressure on the currency may prompt BI to stand pat again rather than cut.
While a soft growth print and contained inflation still support the case for easing, he expects rate cuts to be pushed to December and March, aligning more closely with the timing of Fed rate cuts and stronger reserves.
Thailand
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November 16, 2025 16:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
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