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China’s house prices have declined by the most in a year, while industrial production and investment figures both missed expectations, underlining pressure on policymakers to maintain growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
New home prices fell 0.45 per cent in October from the previous month, the most since October last year and greater than a 0.4 per cent decline in September, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday.
Industrial production rose 4.9 per cent from a year earlier, trailing a forecast of 5.5 per cent in an analyst poll by Reuters and the 6.5 per cent growth in September. Retail sales in October expanded 2.9 per cent, better than expectations of 2.8 per cent in the Reuters poll but down from 3 per cent the previous month. Both were the weakest readings since August 2024.
Fixed asset investment, meanwhile, continued to fall, recording a 1.7 per cent decline year to date on a year earlier year, worse than forecasts of a 0.8 per cent drop and a 0.5 per cent contraction to September.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that while the overall economy was operating “relatively smoothly”, with progress in developing new industries, there were “many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment”.
“There is significant pressure to adjust domestic economic structure, which pose several challenges to maintaining stable economic operation,” Fu said.
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China is grappling with what economists call a “two-speed” economy, with trade and exports broadly holding up growth despite US President Donald Trump’s trade war, while the domestic economy suffers from weak demand and a prolonged bout of deflation.
Authorities announced a pivot to bolstering domestic demand more than a year ago, which has included easing monetary policy, issuing stimulus bonds and unveiling programmes to support households.
But those efforts have yet to significantly revitalise consumption, which has been hit by a years-long slowdown in the real estate market that has weighing on household spending and consumer confidence.
The NBS said the year-to-date decline in property development investment had deepened from 13.9 per cent to 14.7 year on year by the end of October.
“Today’s data signals the ongoing weakness in housing investment and developer sentiment,” Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at the Conference Board said in a new report. “The second-hand market, in particular, reflects structural oversupply and weak consumer confidence.”
He said China had modest and uneven growth in fixed-asset investment in manufacturing, led by autos and transport equipment.
“We will continue to see policy-directed investment in infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and industrial upgrading,” Zhang said.
Additional contributions by Wenjie Ding in Beijing. Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong
Tan Su Shan, chief executive officer of DBS Group Holdings Ltd., speaking at the Singapore Fintech Festival in Singapore, on Nov. 12, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
SINGAPORE – Amid fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, much has been made of recent reports suggesting that AI has yet to generate returns for companies investing billions into adopting the tech.
But that’s not what the chief executive of Southeast Asia’s largest bank is seeing — she says her firm is already reaping the rewards of its AI initiatives, and it’s only just the beginning.
“It’s not hope. It’s now. It’s already happening. And it will get even better,” DBS CEO Tan Su Shan told CNBC on the sidelines of Singapore Fintech Week, when asked about the promise of AI adoption.
DBS has been working to implement artificial intelligence across its bank for over a decade, which helped prepare its internal data analytics for recent waves of generative and agentic AI.
Agentic AI is a type of artificial intelligence that relies on data to proactively make independent decisions, plan and execute tasks autonomously, with minimal human oversight.
Tan expectsAI adoption to bring DBS an overall revenue bump of more than 1 billion Singapore dollars (about $768 million) this year, compared to SG$750 million in 2024. That assessment is based on about 370 AI use cases powered by over 1,500 models throughout its business.
“The proliferation of generative AI has been transformative for us,” Tan said, adding that the company was experiencing a “snowballing effect” of benefits thanks to machine learning.
A major area in which DBS has applied AI is in its financial services to institutional clients, with AI used to collect and leverage data for clients in order to better contextualize and personalize offerings.
According to Tan, this has resulted in “faster and more resilient” teams. The CEO believes that these uses of AI have contributed to a recent uptick in the bank’s deposit growth as compared to competitors’.
The company also recently launched a newly enhanced AI-powered assistant for corporate clients known as “DBS Joy,” which assists clients with unique corporate banking queries around the clock.
ROI concerns
Despite Tan’s strong convictions about AI, recent evidence suggests that many companies are struggling to turn their AI investments into tangible profits.
MIT released a report in July that found 95% of 300 publicly disclosed AI initiatives, encompassing generative AI investments of $30–$40 billion, had failed to achieve real returns.
However, at least in the banking sector, there are signs that the tides are turning.
While DBS doesn’t differentiate spending in generative AI from other in-house investments, other major banks have recently offered this comparison.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV last month that the bank is already breaking even on its approximately $2 billion of annual investments in AI adoption. That represents “just the tip of the iceberg,” he added.
Those expectations are shared by DBS, which plans to continue to accelerate its AI development to become an AI-powered bank.
The ultimate goal, according to Tan, is for its generative AI to develop into a trusted financial advisor for clients, including retail users who are expected to interact with personalized AI agents through the DBS banking app.
The bank already has over 100 AI algorithms that analyze users’ data to provide them with personalized “nudges,” such as alerts on incoming shortfalls, product recommendations, and other insights.
Continued AI investments
While DBS may already be reaping rewards from its AI adoption, Tan acknowledged that it will require continued investments, not only in capital, but in the time needed to reskill employees.
The company has launched several AI reskilling initiatives across departments this year and has even deployed a generative AI-powered coaching tool to support these efforts.
This will help the company automate mundane work and refocus its staff on building and maintaining human-to-human relationships with customers, rather than reducing headcount, Tan said.
“We’re not freezing hiring, but it does mean reskilling. And that’s a journey. It’s a never-ending journey … a constant evolution.”
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A British court will decide on Friday whether Australian mining giant BHP is liable for one of Brazil’s worst environmental disasters, potentially paving the way for billions of pounds in compensation.
CHENGDU, CHINA – OCTOBER 18: People walk past the Louis Vuitton store at Taikoo Li, a high-end shopping area that combines traditional Sichuan-style architecture with modern luxury retail, on October 18, 2025, in Chengdu, China.
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
China’s slowdown worsened in October, dragged by soft consumer demand and a deepening property downturn, with the long holiday period further denting factory activity.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate, contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.8% drop.
The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country.
Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month, missing expectations for a 5.5% jump.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in October, shrinking to the lowest level in six months, as a weeklong holiday, which stretched from Oct. 1 to Oct. 8, shuttered most factories across the country.
Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, topping expectations for a 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll, but softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September.
The survey-based urban unemployment rate ticked down to 5.1% last month from 5.2% in September.
The sharp drop in fixed-asset investment was largely dragged down by lackluster investment in the property sector and infrastructure, according to Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% from a year earlier in October, the strongest inflation reading since January this year and the first positive growth since June, according to LSEG data.
The core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 1.2% from a year earlier, the highest since February 2024, according to data provider Wind Information.
China’s exports in October unexpectedly contracted for the first time in nearly two years amid a deepening slump in shipments to the U.S. as tensions with Washington over trade escalated before a deal was reached at the month’s end.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed last month to trim their tit-for-tat tariffs and suspend a raft of restrictive measures for one year.
Zhang, however, expects Chinese policymakers to refrain from unveiling further stimulus measures for the remainder of this year, as the economy appears to remain on track to achieve its 5% growth target.
China’s economic growth slowed to 4.8% in the third quarter, following expansions of 5.2% in the second quarter and 5.4% in the first quarter.
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Good morning. The Indian government has classified the Delhi car explosion as a “terror incident perpetrated by anti-national forces”. The death toll from Monday’s explosion is now 13, according to local media. Tensions in the region are high, with Pakistan on Tuesday accusing India of pursuing “state terrorism” after a suicide car bombing killed at least 12 people outside a judicial complex in its capital Islamabad. India has denied any involvement.
Meanwhile, the talk is that a trade deal with the US will be announced soon. Donald Trump, who is now fighting to control his Maga base after the revelations in the Epstein emails, has indicated this a couple of times this week too. In fact the US president defended the use of H1B visas on Wednesday, saying the US “needs certain talents”. Is the cycle turning?
Results of the polls in Bihar will be out today, and exit polls seem to strongly suggest a third term for Nitish Kumar.
Expense report
It’s that time of the year again, when we hear the first whispers of a phrase that gets India’s businesses and consumers excited: the Union budget. This week, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman kicked off preparations for next year’s fiscal event with a consultation with leading economists. And that meeting brought forth that other term that should incite excitement, but has of late been rather contentious — capital expenditure.
Experts from private banks and other financial institutions used the meeting with Sitharaman to push for an increase in government capex, which they think will generate employment and improve general economic wellbeing. Government capex is expected to stay around 5 per cent of GDP this fiscal year, Emkay Research estimates, continuing the marginally downward trajectory in the past two years. In her budget in February this year, Sitharaman had increased the allocation of government capex by 10 per cent from last year, earmarking $129bn for these projects.
It is ironic that it is now the private sector that is urging the government to increase spending. In the past few years the finance ministry has been the one demanding that the private sector increase its capex, with Sitharaman using several public appearances to scold industry for this lapse. But the results have been a mixed bag. A significant area of expansion of private capital this year was expected to be in manufacturing for exports, specifically as a “China plus one” strategy for global companies to de-risk their supply chains. But this approach is no longer viable after Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on India. Even if a deal is announced soon, the damage to investor confidence will take a while to repair.
However, there is some good news on private capex being invested in projects for the domestic market. A report from the Reserve Bank of India projects this to grow by 22 per cent this fiscal year, on the back of the recent interest rate cut and improving economic conditions. Much of this money is being invested in incremental boosts to capacity in renewable energy, roads and other projects.
Capex is one of the most significant factors for India’s economic health. Public capex is especially crucial, with every dollar spent having a multiplier effect of 2.4 to 2.6 times on the economy. The question now is whether private capex will step in so that the government can ease its spending. This week’s meeting suggests it is unlikely. Even if private investment does go up, it is growing from a low base; the government should not take it as a signal that it can take its foot off the pedal early.
Do you think there is enough private capital expenditure now? Hit reply or email me at indiabrief@ft.com
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Indian roads are so dangerous that they account for the highest number of accident-related fatalities in the world. According to data shared by Nitin Gadkari, the minister in charge of road transport and highways, 480,000 accidents took place on Indian roads in 2024, killing 172,000 people. More than 35,000 of these fatalities were pedestrians, while 54,000 deaths were due to lack of helmets and 16,000 were people not wearing seatbelts. Road accidents are the single largest killer of young men aged between 15 and 29, accounting for 20 per cent of all deaths for that age group.
These are grim statistics. What is worse is that there does not seem to be a solution in sight. The minister himself remarked that some of this is because of the poor construction of roads, saying hundreds of deaths were caused because of civil engineering mistakes and pot holes, before adding that he was only responsible for building highways.
The poor quality of roads is also a serious economic problem. India is losing 3 per cent of GDP annually through road accidents, according to Gadkari, although I am not sure how he arrived at this number. Nevertheless, it is safe to say that a poorly designed network of roads riddled with bottlenecks would multiply commute time and result in millions of man-hours lost. During the monsoons, streets are flooded in most Indian cities. Potholed roads are so common across all of India that some of them have now become internet memes.
This administration takes incredible pride in how it has expanded road connectivity across the country. Some 55,000 kilometres of new national highways have been built in the past 11 years, according to government data. But just building roads is not enough — attention has to be paid to how they are engineered and subsequently maintained. If India’s ambition is to be a global economic powerhouse, it has to have high-quality infrastructure as well as valuing human lives. Having the most dangerous road network in the world is a terrible reputation. While it is great that the minister is willing to talk about this in public, his office should also be more proactive in ensuring this is rectified quickly.
What has been your experience of Indian roads?Hit reply or email me at indiabrief@ft.com
Go figure
India’s inflation fell to a record low in October. Here is a look at how the consumer price index performed.
Read, hear, watch
I am making my way through Granta’s autumn edition that is dedicated to India. (Disclosure — the publishers sent me a copy). I really enjoyed the opening piece — a short story by the Kannada writer Vivek Shanbhag (of Ghachar Ghochar fame) translated by Srinath Perur. I am about halfway through the book, and the other pieces have not really blown me away so far.
It’s been a busy couple of weeks in London, but I have managed to watch 10 minutes of Platonic on Apple TV every night. I didn’t care for it much in the beginning, but warmed up to it after the third episode. (I could totally identify with the situation, since I spend quite a bit of time getting up to no good with my platonic best friend too.)
Buzzer round
Which organisation is going to award a “peace prize” next month in Washington? Hint — its main area of expertise in peace negotiations involves yellow and red cards.
Send your answer to indiabrief@ft.com and check Tuesday’s newsletter to see if you were the first one to get it right.
Your view
On Tuesday, I wrote about the government’s desire to create “big banks”, potentially through more mergers and foreign investment. India Brief reader Ajay Doshi had this to say:
“Maybe the first step would be for the state to not get involved in commercial banks. They should privatise completely and then let the market work out what is best for its consumers, whoever and wherever they are. Regulation is necessary, but there should be absolutely no government interference. No favours either.”
(Edited for length and clarity)
Quick answer
On Tuesday we asked if you think India will be able to fix the air pollution problem. Here are the results. Seventy per cent of you don’t think it will. (Also, linking results to last week’s poll on Bihar elections here, since results will be out today.)
Thank you for reading. India Business Briefing is edited by Tee Zhuo. Please send feedback, suggestions (and gossip) to indiabrief@ft.com.
Tradeweb and Chainlink recently announced a collaboration to publish the Tradeweb FTSE U.S. Treasury Benchmark Closing Prices on-chain via DataLink, aiming to enhance transparency and accessibility in U.S. Treasury markets by leveraging blockchain technology for real-time, reliable benchmark pricing data.
This move may accelerate the integration of digital market infrastructure for institutions seeking trusted, continually available Treasury pricing and open the door for tokenized financial products and expanded on-chain market participation.
We’ll explore how delivering institutional-grade U.S. Treasury data on-chain may influence Tradeweb’s digital asset growth and investment outlook.
Trump’s oil boom is here – pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.
To be a shareholder in Tradeweb Markets, you need to believe in the ongoing transition of fixed income markets from manual and voice-based to electronic and increasingly digital trading. The recent partnership with Chainlink advances digital infrastructure for U.S. Treasury data, but does not materially alter the biggest short-term catalyst, which remains increasing electronic trading adoption, or the biggest near-term risk, ongoing reliance on voice trading for complex trades during volatile periods.
Of the recent announcements, Tradeweb’s launch of dealer algorithmic execution capabilities for U.S. Treasuries stands out as most relevant. Together with the Chainlink collaboration, this further supports efforts to enhance automation and real-time data, aligning directly with the catalyst of growing electronic and automated trading volumes in core markets.
However, amid these advances, investors should be aware that if voice trading remains entrenched during key market events, it could…
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TW.
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