New research is shedding light on a significant association between changes in the expression of 10 proteins with a potential role in fatigue or mitochondrial function and the severity of fatigue in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) treated with elafibranor.1
The data were presented at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) The Liver Meeting 2025 by Mark Swain, MD, a professor of medicine at Cumming School of Medicine and full member of The Calvin, Phoebe and Joan Snyder Institute for Chronic Diseases at the University of Calgary, and highlight expression changes of proteins linked to fatigue or mitochondrial function following treatment with elafibranor. Of note, these changes significantly correlated with each other and with fatigue improvement, suggesting that PPARα/δ agonism beneficially impacts fatigue-associated pathways linked to mitochondrial function.1
“Fatigue, a common, debilitating symptom in patients with primary biliary cholangitis, has poorly understood pathophysiology,” Swain and colleagues wrote.1 “Elafibranor, a PPAR α/δ agonist approved for PBC second-line treatment, has shown clinically meaningful improvements in fatigue.”
In a previous analysis presented at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress 2025, expression levels of 10 proteins associated with a potential role in fatigue or mitochondrial function were found to be impacted in patients treated with elafibranor, including ATAD3B, BAX, CA14, CA5A, ECI1, GRPEL1, HPD, KYNU, MECR, and SOD2.2
To build upon this research and examine the relationship between changes in expression of these proteins and fatigue severity with elafibranor, investigators assessed serum samples collected from patients in the phase 3 ELATIVE trial at baseline and week 52 and analyzed them using the Olink® Explore HT proteomic panel. Spearman correlations were evaluated between Patient-Reported Outcome (PRO) Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Fatigue Short Form 7a (PFSF 7a), PBC-40 Fatigue domain (PBC-40 F), and expression levels of the 10 proteins impacted by elafribanor treatment.1
Analyses were conducted in the overall population and in patients with baseline moderate-to-severe fatigue, defined as PFSF 7a T-score ≥60 or PBC-40 F score ≥29.1
Of 161 patients in ELATIVE, samples were included from 119. Of these patients, 46 and 63 had baseline moderate to severe fatigue according to PFSF 7a and PBC-40 F, respectively.1
At baseline, in the overall population, significant moderate-to-strong correlations were observed between the expression of all proteins (r=0.29–0.89; P <.05). In patients with baseline moderate to severe fatigue according to both PROs, expression of CA5A, ECI1, GRPEL1, KYNU, MECR, and SOD2 were significantly correlated with fatigue at baseline (r=0.25–0.39; P <.05). Of these patients treated with elafribanor (baseline moderate to severe fatigue, PFSF 7a, n = 33; PBC-40 F, n = 41), moderate-to-strong correlations (r=0.27–0.88) were observed between expression changes from baseline to week 52 of all proteins, which were all significant (P <.05) except for CA5A and ATAD3B, and MECR and CA14.1
In the 33 elafibranor-treated patients with baseline moderate to severe fatigue according to PFSF 7a, significant correlations between CfB to W52 in BAX, ECI1, GRPEL1, HPD, KYNU, MECR, and SOD2 expression and PFSF 7a were observed (r=0.35–0.54; P <.05). Changes from baseline to week 52 in SOD2 and PBC-40 F were significantly correlated in the 41 patients with baseline moderate to severe fatigue according to PBC-40 F (r=0.32; P <.05).1
“Elafibranor treatment led to expression changes of proteins linked to fatigue or mitochondrial function, significantly correlated with each other and with fatigue improvement,” investigators concluded.1 “This suggests that PPARα/δ agonism beneficially impacts fatigue-associated pathways linked to mitochondrial function, providing a foundation for further research into the mechanistic contribution of PPARα/δ agonism to fatigue improvement in PBC.”
References
Swain M, del Pilar Schneider M, Plas P, et al. Elafibranor-associated changes in proteins linked to mitochondrial function correlate with fatigue improvement: Proteomic results from the ELATIVE® trial. Presented at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) The Liver Meeting 2025. Washington, DC. November 7-11, 2025.
Swain M, Plas P, del Pilar Schneider M, et al. LBP-025 Elafibranor impacts inflammatory, fibrotic and symptom-associated markers in patients with primary biliary cholangitis: Proteomic results from the ELATIVE® trial. Journal of Hepatology. doi:10.1016/S0168-8278(25)00444-1
Promising progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes were observed among patients with HLA-A*02:01–negative and HLA-A*02:01–positive uveal melanoma who received pembrolizumab (Keytruda) plus lenvatinib (Lenvima), according to data from the phase 2 PLUME trial (NCT05282901) presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress 2025.1
The study met its primary end point in both patient cohorts, with an observed PFS rate of 31.8% at 27 weeks (95% CI, 13.9%-54.9%) in patients who were HLA-A*02:01–negative and naïve for treatment with tebentafusp (Kimtrak). In patients who were HLA-A*02:01–positive and were pretreated with tebentafusp, the PFS rate at 27 weeks was 60.7% (95% CI, 40.6%-78.5%).
“It was observed in phase 3 studies of tebentafusp2 that treatments administered after tebentafusp might display improved activity compared [with] historical data,” said Manuel Rodrigues, MD, medical oncologist at Institut Curie and presenter of the PLUME data.1
The combination of lenvatinib and pembrolizumab “showed encouraging activity, especially in patients previously treated with tebentafusp, suggesting potential synergy between these treatments,” Rodrigues added.
Regarding safety, the overall profile was consistent with prior trials involving pembrolizumab and lenvatinib. There were no treatment-related deaths. With lenvatinib, 76% of patients held the dose, 26% had dose reductions, and 4% discontinued. With pembrolizumab, 22% of patients held the dose and 4% discontinued.
The most common any-grade treatment-related adverse events were fatigue (81.8% in the tebentafusp-naive cohort vs 69% in the pretreated cohort), hypertension (77.3% vs 69%), diarrhea (45.5% vs 65.5%), hypothyroidism (45.5% vs 65.5%), arthralgia (40.9% vs 58.6%), cytolytic hepatitis (40.9% vs 58.6%), mucositis (45.5% vs 41.4%), dysphonia (31.8% vs 44.8%), and abdominal pain (27.3% vs 44.8%).
While the findings were promising, Rodrigues urged caution when interpreting the results, due to the small sample size and single-arm design. Rodrigues noted that biomarker analyses and real-world comparisons were ongoing to further refine patient selection.
What Was the Design of the PLUME Study?
PLUME was an academic, monocentric, single-arm phase 2 trial conducted at the Institut Curie in Paris, France.A total of 51 patients who were naïve to immune checkpoint inhibitors were enrolled and split into 2 cohorts by HLA-A*02:01–negative (n = 22) and –positive/pretreated with tebentafusp (n = 29).
Treatment consisted of pembrolizumab 200 mg intravenously every 3 weeks for a maximum of 35 cycles and lenvatinib 20 mg orally daily until progression. Chest, abdomen, and pelvic CT scans and liver MRIs were mandatory every 9 weeks. The primary end point was 27-week PFS (after 9 cycles).
What Was the Rationale for the PLUME Study?
As Rodrigues explained in his presentation, uveal melanoma has a unique biology to melanoma of the skin, with one-third of patients developing metastases and over 90% of those patients developing liver metastases. The current median overall survival (OS)is about 20 months.
Tebentafusp, a bispecific TCR–anti-CD3 fusion protein targeting gp100, was the first therapy to improve OS in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma; however, the benefit is limited to patients who are HLA-A*02:01–positive, which is about 45% of patients. Further, checkpoint inhibitors like pembrolizumab have shown limited efficacy due to low mutational burden and an immunosuppressive microenvironment.
The rationale of adding lenvatinib lies in its VEGFR/FGRF blockade that can normalize vasculature, reduce tumor-associated macrophages, and enhance T-cell infiltration. The combination of lenvatinib and pembrolizumab has shown promise in endometrial and renal cancers, where the combination has outperformed monotherapy.
DISCLOSURES:Rodrigues declared personal financial interests with Immunocore, GSK, AstraZeneca, and Abbvie; institutional financial interests with Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Daiichi-Sankyo; and nonfinancial interests with Merck, which provided product samples for the PLUME trial.
References
Rodrigues M. PLUME: A single-arm phase II trial of pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib in metastatic uveal melanoma (mUM). Presented at: 2025 ESMO Congress; October 17–20, 2025; Berlin, German. Abstract LBA58.
Nathan P, Hassel JC, Rutkowski P, et al. Overall Survival Benefit with Tebentafusp in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma. N Engl J Med. 2021 Sep 23;385(13):1196-1206. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2103485.
The projected fair value for Air New Zealand is NZ$0.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of NZ$0.60 suggests Air New Zealand is potentially trading close to its fair value
The NZ$0.66 analyst price target for AIR is 7.2% less than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Air New Zealand Limited (NZSE:AIR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There’s really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We’ve found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Levered FCF (NZ$, Millions)
-NZ$1.09b
-NZ$908.0m
-NZ$14.8m
NZ$112.7m
NZ$205.4m
NZ$284.8m
NZ$365.2m
NZ$441.3m
NZ$510.7m
NZ$572.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 38.68%
Est @ 28.19%
Est @ 20.85%
Est @ 15.72%
Est @ 12.12%
Present Value (NZ$, Millions) Discounted @ 11%
-NZ$978
-NZ$738
-NZ$10.8
NZ$74.4
NZ$122
NZ$153
NZ$176
NZ$192
NZ$200
NZ$202
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = -NZ$606m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= NZ$8.2b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= NZ$2.9b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is NZ$2.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of NZ$0.6, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NZSE:AIR Discounted Cash Flow November 9th 2025
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Air New Zealand as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.717. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Air New Zealand
Strength
Weakness
Opportunity
Threat
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Air New Zealand, we’ve put together three further elements you should explore:
Risks: For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Air New Zealand that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does AIR’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every New Zealander stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Tech and speculative assets are now in focus after the Nasdaq’s worst week since April
The “buy everything” rally since April now feels like an uphill battle.
It doesn’t feel like a “buy everything” market anymore.
Last week’s sharp pullback in tech stocks could easily turn into yet another buy-the-dip moment in the week ahead, like other times since April’s tariff-induced market plunge.
Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) brush up against a new bear market could also prove fleeting, and the recent sharp selloff in other speculative corners of the market that began in late October might easily reverse.
Yet this moment seems a bit different – as though markets might be more fragile, and investors could be less inclined to simply stomp on the gas pedal at the first sign of any pullback.
“You aren’t going to get the timing right,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “I’m not trying to guess what’s going to happen over the next week or month.” But the recent pain in areas that have “run a little hotter” is indicating that investors “are taking a little bit more cautious approach to the rally from April’s lows,” he said.
It’s been a pretty solid run for risk assets, Baird noted. But there have been cracks in credit markets, talk of more credit “cockroaches,” and other ominous indicators keeping investors on edge, in addition to a glaring “blind spot” in economic data during the ongoing, historic government shutdown.
“It isn’t as if everything is coming up roses,” Baird said of the rally since April. “Whether it’s economic, policy or geopolitical risks, there’s a lot for investors to absorb.”
Read: The shutdown is starting to ‘bite the economy,’ top Trump aide warns. The Senate is struggling to make a deal.
AI froth in focus
November typically ends up being a strong month for the stock market. But missed paychecks, nationwide flight cancellations and other ramifications of the government shutdown have paved the way for an unsteady start to the month.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP retreated 3% last week, logging its worst week since the early April tariff tumult, while the S&P 500 SPX shed 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed the week 1.2% lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The pullback wasn’t terribly surprising. The S&P 500 remains up nearly 15% on the year despite higher tariffs, growing doubts about the job market and a fresh reading on the mood of U.S. consumers showing sentiment neared a record low in November.
Overall solid corporate earnings also didn’t prevent jitters around stock valuations and artificial-intelligence spending plans from returning, as well as concerns about when large tech companies might earn a return on those AI investments.
A look at the five top “hyperscalers” shows spending could hit $600 billion in two years at Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL), according to Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial.
Spending by five top “hyperscalers” in the AI race is projected to hit $600 billion in 2027
“I’m not worried about the AI capex spend,” said Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior equity portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Despite “moments” when markets can pull back quickly, he said he’s more focused on the long-term opportunity.
“Every dollar is not being spent wisely, but a lot of them are being spent effectively,” VanCronkhite said.
Looking for catalysts
Another factor creating twinges of anxiety in markets has been the recent upward pressure in short-term funding markets, especially as they reared up at the end of October.
While that eased last week, higher costs to transact overnight can be a warning sign of bigger troubles in the plumbing of the financial system – particularly if funding pressures persists beyond the typical month-end, quarter-end or year-end periods.
Some investors pointed to reduced liquidity in the financial system as a factor in bitcoin’s brief dip below the key $100,000 level last week, after its sharp drop from October’s record territory.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said he thinks it’s a stretch to pin weakness in stocks and riskier assets on the Federal Reserve and recent “minor strains” in overnight funding markets.
“It has nothing to do with Fed policy in 9 out of 10 cases,” LeBas said. “Another way to summarize it [would be] investors who are long risk assets are complaining of reduced demand for risk assets.”
That said, “unsustainable behavior” by some investors in some corners of the market have been a worry to Allspring’s VanCronkhite, especially when looking beyond large-cap stocks to midcap and small-cap RUT sectors.
“They’re buying everything tied to themes when, very clearly, not everything is going to be a long-term win,” VanCronkhite said. He added that he hopes investors soon get into “the sorting-out phase,” where “garbage” investments are distinguished from those with staying power.
Meanwhile, even gold’s (GC00) eye-watering, more than 50% rally on the year might be in a consolidation phase, said Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.
The precious metal was up about 0.3% so far in November, hovering around $4,000 an ounce on Friday. Doshi said he thinks gold likely ends the year around that same level, “give or take 5%.”
The week ahead likely won’t see the government shutdown come to an end, if betting markets end up being correct. Veterans Day on Tuesday will see the stock market remain open, but the bond market will be closed. There also will be plenty of Fed officials speaking during the week.
-Joy Wiltermuth
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Electric car sales in Australia continue to reach new record levels, according to figures that reveal the market share for internal combustion engine vehicles fell below 70% for the first time.
The latest quarterly sales data from peak motoring body the Australian Automobile Association (AAA) shows electric vehicles accounted for 9.7% of new cars sold in the three months to September, the highest proportion on record.
While welcoming the figures, the Electric Vehicle Council has urged state and territory governments to reinstate axed EV subsidies to help drive the level of sales projected to be required for Australia to meet its emissions reductions goals.
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A record 29,298 battery-electric vehicles were sold in the September quarter, 54 more than the previous three months’ total, which was the highest at the time.
Sales for hybrids (49,929 sold) and plug-in hybrids (12,460) also rose, coinciding with a marked drop in demand for internal combustion vehicles.
A total of 210,458 petrol-powered cars were sold in the latest quarter, down from 226,306 in the previous three quarter.
The share of internal combustion engine vehicles among all new cars sold nationally fell to 69.65% in the September quarter, the lowest on record and down more than 12% from less than two years ago.
The proportion was even lower in New South Wales (68.74%) and Victoria (68.04%).
In the ACT, petrol-powered cars accounted for less than half of all new cars sold.
Aman Gaur, the Electric Vehicle Council’s head of legal, policy and advocacy, welcomed the growth of EV sales and decline in internal combustion vehicles.
“There is a trend that is clear over the last two years that Australians are moving away from environmentally dangerous, expensive to run cars, towards ones that are electrified – and they are saving lots of money,” he said.
The federal government has policies to boost the uptake of EVs, including fuel efficiency standards and fringe benefits tax exemptions, but has not set a sales target.
However, the Climate Change Authority has estimated EVs would need to account for half of all light vehicles sold over the next decade if the Albanese government wanted to achieve even the “lower end” of its aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions between 62% and 70% by 2035.
The authority’s chair, Matt Kean, has warned a proposed road-user charge could be a “headwind” to the mass adoption of EVs. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has said he was in “no rush” to develop the system – which would aim to replace lost fuel excise revenue – despite pressure from state governments desperate for funding to fix roads.
Gaur said state and territory governments needed to do more to support the national effort, urging them to restore EV incentive schemes.
He singled out the Western Australian government, which in May ended a popular scheme that offered buyers a $3,500 rebate on the purchase of an eligible EV.
“These are upfront vehicle incentives that have to be implemented so that Australians can continue making that leap. We can’t have a successful transition with just one level of government doing the heavy lifting,” Gaur said.
Tech and speculative assets are now in focus after the Nasdaq’s worst week since April
The “buy everything” rally since April now feels like an uphill battle.
It doesn’t feel like a “buy everything” market anymore.
Last week’s sharp pullback in tech stocks could easily turn into yet another buy-the-dip moment in the week ahead, like other times since April’s tariff-induced market plunge.
Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) brush up against a new bear market could also prove fleeting, and the recent sharp selloff in other speculative corners of the market that began in late October might easily reverse.
Yet this moment seems a bit different – as though markets might be more fragile, and investors could be less inclined to simply stomp on the gas pedal at the first sign of any pullback.
“You aren’t going to get the timing right,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “I’m not trying to guess what’s going to happen over the next week or month.” But the recent pain in areas that have “run a little hotter” is indicating that investors “are taking a little bit more cautious approach to the rally from April’s lows,” he said.
It’s been a pretty solid run for risk assets, Baird noted. But there have been cracks in credit markets, talk of more credit “cockroaches,” and other ominous indicators keeping investors on edge, in addition to a glaring “blind spot” in economic data during the ongoing, historic government shutdown.
“It isn’t as if everything is coming up roses,” Baird said of the rally since April. “Whether it’s economic, policy or geopolitical risks, there’s a lot for investors to absorb.”
Read: The shutdown is starting to ‘bite the economy,’ top Trump aide warns. The Senate is struggling to make a deal.
AI froth in focus
November typically ends up being a strong month for the stock market. But missed paychecks, nationwide flight cancellations and other ramifications of the government shutdown have paved the way for an unsteady start to the month.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP retreated 3% last week, logging its worst week since the early April tariff tumult, while the S&P 500 SPX shed 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed the week 1.2% lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The pullback wasn’t terribly surprising. The S&P 500 remains up nearly 15% on the year despite higher tariffs, growing doubts about the job market and a fresh reading on the mood of U.S. consumers showing sentiment neared a record low in November.
Overall solid corporate earnings also didn’t prevent jitters around stock valuations and artificial-intelligence spending plans from returning, as well as concerns about when large tech companies might earn a return on those AI investments.
A look at the five top “hyperscalers” shows spending could hit $600 billion in two years at Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL), according to Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial.
Spending by five top “hyperscalers” in the AI race is projected to hit $600 billion in 2027
“I’m not worried about the AI capex spend,” said Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior equity portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Despite “moments” when markets can pull back quickly, he said he’s more focused on the long-term opportunity.
“Every dollar is not being spent wisely, but a lot of them are being spent effectively,” VanCronkhite said.
Looking for catalysts
Another factor creating twinges of anxiety in markets has been the recent upward pressure in short-term funding markets, especially as they reared up at the end of October.
While that eased last week, higher costs to transact overnight can be a warning sign of bigger troubles in the plumbing of the financial system – particularly if funding pressures persists beyond the typical month-end, quarter-end or year-end periods.
Some investors pointed to reduced liquidity in the financial system as a factor in bitcoin’s brief dip below the key $100,000 level last week, after its sharp drop from October’s record territory.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said he thinks it’s a stretch to pin weakness in stocks and riskier assets on the Federal Reserve and recent “minor strains” in overnight funding markets.
“It has nothing to do with Fed policy in 9 out of 10 cases,” LeBas said. “Another way to summarize it [would be] investors who are long risk assets are complaining of reduced demand for risk assets.”
That said, “unsustainable behavior” by some investors in some corners of the market have been a worry to Allspring’s VanCronkhite, especially when looking beyond large-cap stocks to midcap and small-cap RUT sectors.
“They’re buying everything tied to themes when, very clearly, not everything is going to be a long-term win,” VanCronkhite said. He added that he hopes investors soon get into “the sorting-out phase,” where “garbage” investments are distinguished from those with staying power.
Meanwhile, even gold’s (GC00) eye-watering, more than 50% rally on the year might be in a consolidation phase, said Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.
The precious metal was up about 0.3% so far in November, hovering around $4,000 an ounce on Friday. Doshi said he thinks gold likely ends the year around that same level, “give or take 5%.”
The week ahead likely won’t see the government shutdown come to an end, if betting markets end up being correct. Veterans Day on Tuesday will see the stock market remain open, but the bond market will be closed. There also will be plenty of Fed officials speaking during the week.
-Joy Wiltermuth
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
The Australian market is poised for a quiet end to the week, with futures indicating a slight decline of around 0.5%, following a turbulent period influenced by high job cuts in the US and ongoing concerns about AI valuations. Despite these broader market challenges, investors often seek opportunities in lesser-known areas like penny stocks, which can offer affordability and potential growth. Although the term “penny stocks” might seem outdated, it still holds significance as these smaller or newer companies can present unique investment opportunities when backed by strong financial health.
Name
Share Price
Market Cap
Financial Health Rating
Alfabs Australia (ASX:AAL)
A$0.475
A$136.13M
★★★★★☆
EZZ Life Science Holdings (ASX:EZZ)
A$2.42
A$114.16M
★★★★★★
Dusk Group (ASX:DSK)
A$0.88
A$54.8M
★★★★★★
IVE Group (ASX:IGL)
A$2.92
A$448.77M
★★★★★☆
MotorCycle Holdings (ASX:MTO)
A$3.69
A$272.35M
★★★★★★
West African Resources (ASX:WAF)
A$3.04
A$3.47B
★★★★★★
Service Stream (ASX:SSM)
A$2.14
A$1.31B
★★★★★★
Fleetwood (ASX:FWD)
A$2.77
A$256.45M
★★★★★★
Perenti (ASX:PRN)
A$2.57
A$2.42B
★★★★★★
GWA Group (ASX:GWA)
A$2.38
A$625.38M
★★★★★☆
Click here to see the full list of 416 stocks from our ASX Penny Stocks screener.
Here we highlight a subset of our preferred stocks from the screener.
Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★
Overview: EZZ Life Science Holdings Limited is involved in the formulation, production, marketing, and sale of health and wellbeing products across Australia, New Zealand, Mainland China, and South-East Asia with a market cap of A$114.16 million.
Operations: The company’s revenue is primarily derived from its Company Owned segment, which generated A$63.21 million, and the Brought in Lines segment, contributing A$3.66 million.
Market Cap: A$114.16M
EZZ Life Science Holdings has demonstrated financial resilience with A$66.87 million in sales for the year ending June 2025, maintaining steady revenue growth despite a slight decline in net income to A$6.73 million. The company boasts strong liquidity, with short-term assets of A$33 million comfortably covering both short and long-term liabilities. EZZ’s debt-free status enhances its financial stability, while its high Return on Equity at 24% indicates efficient management of shareholder funds. However, recent removal from the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index may signal challenges ahead amidst negative earnings growth over the past year compared to industry averages.
ASX:EZZ Financial Position Analysis as at Nov 2025
Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★☆
Overview: Mayne Pharma Group Limited is a specialty pharmaceutical company that commercializes women’s health and dermatology pharmaceuticals across Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and other international markets with a market cap of A$398.10 million.
Operations: The company’s revenue is derived from three main segments: A$154.09 million from dermatology, A$75.64 million from international markets, and A$178.37 million from women’s health pharmaceuticals.
Market Cap: A$398.1M
Mayne Pharma Group’s recent earnings report for the year ending June 2025 shows revenue of A$408.1 million, up from A$388.4 million the previous year, with a reduced net loss of A$93.84 million compared to A$174.23 million prior. Despite this improvement, the company remains unprofitable with a negative return on equity of -24.32%. Short-term assets exceed short-term liabilities by over A$90 million but fall short against long-term liabilities by approximately A$30 million. The management and board are experienced, with average tenures exceeding three years, while debt levels have decreased significantly over five years.
ASX:MYX Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Nov 2025
Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★
Overview: Spheria Emerging Companies Limited is an Australian investment company with a market cap of A$169.43 million.
Operations: The company’s revenue segment consists solely of Investment Activities, generating A$24.25 million.
Market Cap: A$169.43M
Spheria Emerging Companies Limited, with a market cap of A$169.43 million, has shown robust financial performance. Its earnings surged by 116% over the past year, significantly outpacing the industry average. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with no debt and short-term assets of A$146.8 million covering both short and long-term liabilities comfortably. Despite a low return on equity at 11.5%, its price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3x suggests good value compared to the broader Australian market average of 20.7x. Recent board changes include Marcus Burns’ appointment as director, enhancing strategic leadership with his extensive financial markets experience.
ASX:SEC Financial Position Analysis as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASX:EZZ ASX:MYX and ASX:SEC.
This article was originally published by Simply Wall St.
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Drax power plant has continued to burn 250-year-old trees sourced from some of Canada’s oldest forests despite growing scrutiny of its sustainability claims, forestry experts say.
A new report suggests it is “highly likely” that Britain’s biggest power plant sourced some wood from ecologically valuable forests as recently as this summer. Drax, Britain’s single biggest source of carbon emissions, has received billions of pounds in subsidies from burning biomass derived largely from wood.
The report, by Stand.earth, a Canadian environmental non-profit, claims that a subsidiary of Drax Group received hundreds of truckloads of whole logs at its biomass pellet sites throughout 2024 and into 2025, which were likely to have included trees that were hundreds of years old.
The report could raise fresh questions for the owner of the North Yorkshire power plant, which has been forced in recent years to defend its sustainability claims while receiving more than £2m a day in green energy subsidies from UK bill payers.
The report’s findings suggest that the power plant was burning “irreplaceable” trees even as its owners lobbied the UK government for the additional green energy subsidies, which were granted earlier this week.
Logs at the Burns Lake plant. Drax has been forced to defend its sustainability claims. Photograph: Desiree Wallace/Stand.earth
The company has claimed that it sources wood only from “well‐managed, sustainable forests” to manufacture the pellets that are shipped from its sites in Canada and the US to be burned at its UK power plant.
But these claims have been questioned by Britain’s energy regulator and the Financial Conduct Authority after a BBC Panorama documentary in 2022 reported that Drax had cut down primary forests in Canada to turn into wood pellets.
The latest investigation into the company’s green credentials, seen by the Guardian, uses official data from the government of British Columbia, along with satellite monitoring, to back claims that a Canadian subsidiary owned by Drax sourced 250-year-old trees to manufacture biomass pellets as recently as this year.
‘Old-growth’ forests at risk
The report claims that the company received 90 truckloads of logs sourced from “old-growth forests” in the Skeena region of British Columbia, home to some of Canada’s largest undeveloped wilderness areas.
Old-growth forests are defined by the local government as areas that include trees older than 250 years in slow-growth ecosystems, or older than 140 years in ecosystems in which trees are replaced more quickly.
Drax said in October 2023 it had stopped sourcing wood from areas designated by the government of British Columbia as “protected” or “deferred” old-growth forest stands, but it did not dispute that it was still sourcing wood from other sites containing old growth.
Responding to the Stand.earth report, a spokesperson for Drax said: “Our sourcing policy means Drax does not source biomass from designated areas of old growth and only sources woody biomass from well-managed, sustainable forests.”
These designated areas of old growth amount to less than half of the total old-growth forest areas in British Columbia. Figures from the BC government show that designated areas total 5.3m hectares, while the total area of old-growth forest in the province spans 11.1m hectares. Another 3.7m hectares are protected under separate designation schemes.
Stand.earth claims that in 2024 and 2025 Drax received at least an additional 425 truckloads of whole logs from “cutblocks” – areas of forest land designated for timber harvesting – which contained old-growth forests.
The report claims that 63 of these loads came from three cutblocks that contained more than 90% old-growth forest, “meaning that this purchase almost certainly contained old growth”.
It added that the remaining 362 lorry loads of whole logs came from 22 cutblocks in the Skeena region that were more than 80% old growth, meaning that it was “likely” they contained old growth.
“The true volume of old growth sourced by Drax is likely higher than what our research was able to track, because of spatial data limitations,” the report said.
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‘A tree standing up in a forest is not waste’
Tegan Hansen, the lead author of Stand.earth’s report, told the Guardian that the loss of British Columbia’s old-growth trees was “a big problem that’s getting bigger”.
“The region where Drax is operating is an area where we’ve tracked a disproportionate amount of logging in high-risk forests with our satellite monitoring system Forest Eye. With how logging works here in BC, there isn’t really a way for Drax to be operating in these areas and not include old-growth forests in their wood supply. The people of the UK should know that the risk of old-growth trees being cut down to produce wood pellets is higher than ever,” Hansen said.
As part of the investigation, Hansen visited a biomass pellet production site, owned by a Canadian subsidiary of Drax, where the company’s reliance on whole logs was apparent.
“It was quite stark. The yards are sprawling and there were huge piles of logs there. These were large, healthy trees of different ages. We saw some trees which had been scorched by fire, but they were still alive when they were cut, which was apparent by the oozing sap,” she said.
Stand.earth says that Drax received 425 truckloads of whole logs from ‘cutblocks’ that contained old-growth forests. Photograph: Desiree Wallace/Stand.earth
Drax said the “low-grade” wood used to make biomass pellets had typically been rejected by commercial sawmills and either sold to the biomass industry as waste wood or burned to prevent wildfires. A spokesperson said it was “far better to use [waste wood] to generate renewable electricity rather than leaving it to burn”.
The rules that allow companies in the forestry industry to disregard old growth as commercial waste are part of the problem, Hansen said.
“Even exceptionally old trees can rot in the middle, which is one of their features that makes them so important for wildlife, but could mean the tree is called defective by the logging industry. This could mean that the tree is dismissed as waste wood. But a tree standing up in a forest is not waste,” she said.
“Drax has come into British Columbia claiming to solve some of the problems that our forestry industry has, but they have not. It’s very disheartening, and offensive, to hear Drax claiming to be solving these problems when really they’re entrenching some of the problems that we have in forestry here,” Hansen said.
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