Category: 3. Business

Introduction

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranked as the third leading cause of cancer mortality globally in 2020, accounting for 75%-85% of primary liver cancers.¹ Treatment modalities for HCC encompass surgical resection, chemotherapy, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE), and systemic therapy. However, most HCC cases are diagnosed at advanced stages, missing the optimal window for surgical intervention. Even post-resection, HCC exhibits alarming 5-year recurrence rates ranging between 60%-70%.² Metastasis and relapse are primary factors that significantly impact patients’ long-term survival, posing a critical challenge in the overall management of HCC.³ In recent years, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has gained attention as a complementary approach in HCC treatment due to its multi-targeted mechanisms, including modulation of tumor growth, metastasis, and immune responses, which may improve therapeutic efficacy and reduce adverse effects.⁴ Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanisms orchestrating the metastatic cascade is crucial for advancing HCC treatment, potentially revealing new therapeutic targets and integrative strategies.

Tumor metastasis remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide.⁵ During this complex process, tumor cells must detach from the primary lesion, degrade the extracellular matrix (ECM), intravasate into the bloodstream, survive circulatory stress, extravasate, and ultimately colonize distant organs.⁶ Among the many factors influencing this metastatic cascade, anoikis resistance and hypoxia are two critical stress responses that significantly contribute to tumor progression.^7,8 Anoikis, or anchorage-dependent programmed cell death, is typically induced when epithelial cells lose contact with the ECM.⁷ However, epithelial-derived tumor cells frequently acquire anoikis resistance during malignant transformation, particularly in metastatic settings, which enables them to survive in suspension, traverse the vasculature, and establish metastases.⁹ HCC, which arises from epithelial hepatocytes and exhibits strong vascularity, often displays features of anoikis resistance, facilitating hematogenous dissemination.¹⁰ In parallel, hypoxia is a hallmark of the solid tumor microenvironment (TME) and plays a pivotal role in promoting tumor aggressiveness. HCC frequently experiences intratumoral hypoxia due to rapid proliferation and abnormal vasculature.¹¹ Hypoxia not only enhances invasion and migration but also sustains cancer stemness through the activation of oncogenic pathways such as Wnt/β-catenin.¹² Furthermore, hypoxia profoundly reshapes the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) by modulating immune cell infiltration, inducing immunosuppressive phenotypes, and promoting immune evasion, which collectively facilitate tumor progression and metastasis.¹³ Although both hypoxia and anoikis resistance are critical in HCC progression, they are often studied separately, with limited focus on their combined effects.

Long non-coding RNA (lncRNA), a class of transcripts longer than 200 nucleotides, have emerged as important regulators of tumor biology, including proliferation, metastasis, recurrence, prognosis, and therapeutic response.^14–17 LncRNAs can be functionally categorized into immune-related, hypoxia-responsive, EMT-related, and anoikis-associated types.^18–21 For instance, hypoxia-responsive lncRNAs such as LINC00839 are transcriptionally activated under oxygen-deprived conditions and modulate tumor proliferation and immune evasion.¹⁸ Likewise, anoikis-related lncRNAs such as AL031985.3 and AC026412.3 promote anchorage-independent survival and enhance metastatic potential.²¹ Although both hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs have been individually studied in HCC, integrated analyses remain scarce. To the best of our knowledge, no prior studies have systematically combined hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNA signatures to define molecular subtypes or predict immune landscape and prognosis in HCC. Given the converging effects of these stress responses on tumor stemness, immune suppression, and metastasis, their integration may yield a more comprehensive understanding of tumor biology and guide treatment stratification.

In this investigation, hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs were identified, and gene expression datasets and clinical data of liver cancer patients were retrieved from TCGA GDC API and GSE43619 databases. The study aimed to explore the interplay between hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs and the prognosis of HCC patients. By utilizing hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs, HCC was stratified into two molecular subtypes, with comparative evaluations of immunophenotypic characteristics across these subsets. Furthermore, a prognostic model centered around hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs was developed to decipher their associations with HCC prognosis and tumor immunophenotype (Figure 1). This research effort contributes to understanding the implications of hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs in HCC, unveiling new avenues for metastasis biomarkers and clinical interventions.

Materials and Methods

Data Sources

RNA-seq data from TCGA GDC API (https://gdc.cancer.gov/developers/gdc-application-programming-interface-api) were utilized to download expression data and clinical follow-up information of LIHC samples. The RNA-Seq data from TCGA-LIHC removed samples without survival time and status, converted Ensembl to Gene symbol, transformed the expression matrix into TPM format, and performed log2 conversion. The TCGA-LIHC cohort was used for the construction and internal validation of the risk model. Additionally, gene expression data and clinical information from the GSE188608 and GSE103581 cohorts were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/). These datasets were specifically used to identify hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs.

The GSE43619 dataset was also obtained from GEO and used for external validation of the constructed prognostic model. Platform-specific annotation files were used to map probe IDs to gene symbols, and the average expression value was taken when multiple probes corresponded to a single gene. Subsequently, 365 HCC samples and 50 adjacent control samples were acquired. For the GSE43619 data, the annotation information of the corresponding chip platform was downloaded, and probes were mapped to genes where the mean value was considered as the gene expression. This research utilized secondary datasets that had been fully de-identified and contained no personally identifiable information; therefore, ethical approval was not required. As the data originated from publicly accessible genomic databases and the study did not involve any direct contact with human subjects or implementation of invasive procedures, informed consent was waived. In accordance with relevant ethical guidelines on the use of public data, this study meets the criteria for exemption from both ethical review and informed consent requirements.

Differential lncRNA Identification and Risk Model Construction

Utilizing the ConsensusClusterPlus package, a consistency matrix was constructed through consistency clustering, and the samples were classified based on specific parameters. The clustering algorithm was set to “km” with a distance of “euclidean”. The process was repeated 500 times with an 80% sampling ratio each time to ensure clustering reliability. For ConsensusClusterPlus analysis, the optimal number of clusters (k) was selected based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF) curve and delta area plot. The most stable clustering was observed when k = 2.

Differential lncRNA Identification

Differential analysis between C1 and C2 subtypes was conducted using the limma package with an FDR threshold of 0.05. Subsequently, the survival R package was employed to perform univariate Cox proportional hazard regression on the differential genes, considering a significance level of p < 0.05. For LASSO-Cox regression, the lambda parameter was determined using 10-fold cross-validation to minimize partial likelihood deviance, and the value of lambda.min was selected. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis further reduced the gene set.

Prognostic Model Construction and Validation

LASSO Cox regression analysis was utilized to reduce the number of genes with key genes and correlation coefficients determined through stepwise regression. The risk score for each patient was calculated using a specific formula. The optimal threshold for dividing high and low-risk groups was determined using the survminer package. Kaplan-Meier and ROC analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic classification of RiskScore using the R software package timeROC.

Immune Infiltration and Therapy Response Prediction

Various packages like GSVA, ESTIMATE, CIBERSORT, TIDE, and pRRophetic were utilized for immune infiltration evaluation and immunotherapy prediction.²² The Immunophenoscore (IPS) was calculated, and the sensitivity of chemotherapy drugs was predicted.

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA)

GSEA was employed to analyze different biological processes across molecular subtypes using the HALLMARK pathway gene set downloaded from the molecular feature database (https://www.gseamsigdb.org/gsea/msigdb/).

Cell Culture and Real-Time Fluorescence Quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR)

Human HCC cell line Li-7 (RRID:CVCL_3840) was provided by the stem cell bank of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Cells were cultured in 1640 (Gibco, USA) medium containing 10% fetal bovine serum at 37 °C and 5% CO₂. The number of 1×10⁶ cells was placed in an ultra-low adsorption 6-well plate and cultured for 24 h under hypoxia conditions containing 1% O₂, 5% CO₂, and 37 °C. All experiments were divided into 3 replicates. Total RNA was extracted using RNeasy Mini Kit (Magen, China) and cDNA was synthesized using PrimeScript TM RT Master Mix (Takara, China). The primers were designed and synthesized by servicebio. RT-qPCR was performed using TB Green^® Premix Ex Taq TM II and LightCycler 480 System. The results show that it is 2^−ΔΔCt. The mRNA expression of 5 lncRNAs was randomly detected, and GAPDH was selected as the internal reference gene. All experiments were divided into 3 replicates. The primer sequence is detailed in Table 1.

Table 1 Primers Used for RT-qPCR

Western Blotting

The cells in the six-well plate were lysed using RIPA lysis buffer and protease inhibitor (PMSF) to extract total protein. The lysed cells were centrifuged at 14,000 rpm for 15 min and the supernatant containing the total protein was quantified by the BCA protein assay kit (Beyotime, Shanghai, China). The 30 µg protein was used for 12% SDS-PAGE electrophoresis to separate the protein, and then the protein was transferred to the PVDF membrane. After blocking with 5% skim milk for 1 h, the membrane was incubated with the primary antibody at 4 °C overnight. After washing with TBST buffer, the second antibody coupled with horseradish peroxidase was added to the membrane and incubated for 40 min. The protein bands were displayed using ECL reagents and analyzed using ImageJ software. The antibodies were as followed: β-actin (Santa Cruz Biotechnology, 1:1000), HIF-1α (Cell Signaling Technology, 1:1000).

Short Interfering RNA (siRNA) Transfection

Li-7 cells were transiently transfected with target-specific siRNA or negative control siRNA (siNC). All individual siRNAs were designed and synthesized by Sangon Biotech. The cells were cultured in six-well plates until they reached 60–70% confluence and then transfected using RNA TransMate reagent (Sangon Biotech). Cells were harvested 48 h post-transfection. The sequence information of siRNA is shown in Table 2.

Table 2 The Sequence Information of siRNA

Flow CytoMetry

Apoptosis was assessed using the Annexin V-APC/DAPI Apoptosis Kit (Elabscience^®, Wuhan, China). The cell quantity and culture conditions are as described in Cell Culture. Harvest the cells and centrifuge at 300 ×g for 5 min. Remove the supernatant, wash the cells once with PBS, and centrifuge again to discard the wash buffer. Resuspend the cells in 100 μL of diluted 1× Annexin V Binding Buffer. Add 2.5 μL of Annexin V-APC Reagent and 2.5 μL of DAPI Reagent (25 μg/mL). Mix thoroughly and incubate at room temperature in the dark for 15 min. Finally, add 400 μL of diluted 1× Annexin V Binding Buffer, mix gently, and analyze the samples using flow cytometry.

Statistical Analysis

All statistical data were analyzed using R language (version 3.6.0). Continuous variables such as gene expression, immune scores, and pathway enrichment levels were compared using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Differences in categorical clinical characteristics between groups were evaluated using the chi-square test. Spearman correlation analysis was employed to assess associations between risk scores and immune infiltration or pathway activity. RT-qPCR and flow cytometry data are presented as mean ± standard deviation, and comparisons among multiple groups were conducted using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). All tests were two-sided, and a p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Identification of Prognostic Hypoxia- and Anoikis-Related lncRNAs and Classification of HCC Molecular Subtypes

To explore the role of hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs in HCC, we integrated data from the GSE103581 and GSE188608 datasets, identifying 154 lncRNAs significantly associated with overall survival in the TCGA-LIHC cohort (p < 0.05; Supplementary Table 1). Among them, 61 lncRNAs were differentially expressed between tumor and adjacent normal tissues (Supplementary Figure 1A), and 49 were further validated to be prognostically relevant (lncRNA_cox.csv). The intersection of these datasets yielded 25 lncRNAs (Supplementary Figure 1B), among which LINC01018 and LINC01554 were more highly expressed in normal tissues, while the remaining lncRNAs were upregulated in tumor samples (Supplementary Figure 1C).

Based on the expression profiles of these 25 lncRNAs, consensus clustering analysis was performed using the TCGA-LIHC dataset. Two robust molecular subtypes, C1 and C2, were identified (Figure 2A and B). Survival analysis revealed a significantly worse prognosis in the C1 subtype compared to C2 (Figure 2C). Further characterization using the six established immune subtypes (C1–C6) demonstrated that the majority of HCC samples in both molecular subtypes corresponded to immune subtypes C3 (inflammatory) and C4 (lymphocyte-depleted), with minimal overlap with C5 (immunologically quiet) and C6 (TGF-β dominant) (Figure 2D). Notably, C2 contained a higher proportion of patients with aggressive immune subtypes (C1 and C2), consistent with its poorer immune-associated survival outcomes (Figure 2E). These findings highlight the potential of hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs not only as prognostic markers but also as classifiers of HCC molecular subtypes with distinct immune landscapes and clinical outcomes.

Figure 2 Molecular subtype construction and prognosis analysis. (A) TCGA-LIHC sample clustering heat map. (B) PCA of TCGA molecular subtypes. (C) Survival analysis between TCGA subtypes. (D) Comparison of the distribution of immune subtypes between different molecular subtypes. (E) Survival curve of immune subtypes.

Integrated Genomic and Immunological Characterization of C1 and C2 Subtypes Reveals Distinct Tumor Biology and Immunotherapy Responses

To further elucidate the biological differences between the C1 and C2 subtypes, we investigated their genomic alterations, somatic mutations, immune microenvironment profiles, and pathway enrichment.²³ Genomic instability was more pronounced in the C1 subtype, which exhibited significantly higher levels of fraction genome altered, number of segments, and homologous recombination deficiency scores (Figure 3A). Fisher’s exact test identified subtype-specific somatic mutations (p < 0.01), revealing that C1 had higher mutation frequencies in TP53, DMD, TG, and GREB1, whereas C2 was enriched for mutations in BIRC6, DOCK8, HERC1, IL6ST, CREBBP, and OR2J3 (Figure 3B and C).

Figure 3 Genomic characteristics and somatic mutations among different subtypes. (A) Genome feature score between C1 and C2 subtypes. (B and C) Forest map and waterfall map of differential mutation genes between C1 and C2 subtypes. Notes: (C) X-axis shows gene names. Each cell shows mutation frequency (%), with colors or symbols representing mutation types.

We next examined the immune landscape of these subtypes. ESTIMATE analysis showed that the C1 subtype had elevated stromal and immune scores, indicating increased immune and matrix component infiltration (Figure 4A). CIBERSORT analysis revealed that C1 harbored higher proportions of immunosuppressive cells, including regulatory T cells (Tregs), M0 macrophages, and memory B cells (Figure 4B). In contrast, single-sample GSEA (ssGSEA) demonstrated overall enhanced immune activation in C1, including increased infiltration of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, B cells, NK cells, dendritic cells, and macrophages. Despite this heightened immune cell presence, the elevated myeloid-derived suppressor cell (MDSC) score in C1 suggests a coexisting immunosuppressive milieu, potentially contributing to immune evasion. Meanwhile, C2 showed modest immune activity with relatively higher scores for activated dendritic cells (Figure 4C). Integrative comparison with immune-related genomic signatures reported in HCC literature indicated that the C1 subtype scored significantly higher in proliferation, TGF-β response, and aneuploidy, supporting a more aggressive and genomically unstable phenotype (Figure 4D). Immunotherapy sensitivity prediction revealed higher Immunophenoscore (IPS) and lower TIDE scores in the C2 subtype, suggesting greater potential responsiveness to immune checkpoint blockade in these patients (Figure 4D). Finally, we compared the differences in activation pathways between C1 and C2 subtypes. GSEA pathway analysis showed that C1 was enriched in oncogenic and EMT-related pathways, including E2F targets, G2M checkpoint, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition, while C2 was associated with metabolic pathways, particularly bile acid metabolism (Figure 4E).

Figure 4 Analysis of immune microenvironment of two subtypes. (A) ESTIMATE immune score difference between subtypes. (B) CIBERSORT immune infiltration difference between subtypes. (C) 28 immune score differences between subtypes. (D) Proliferation, TGF-beta Response, Aneuploidy score, and immunotherapy sensitivity comparison between subtypes. (E) Differences in pathway activity between subtypes. Notes: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001, ****p < 0.0001.

Construction and Validation of a Prognostic 9-lncRNA Risk Model

A total of 61 differentially expressed lncRNAs were identified between the C1 and C2 subtypes (Figure 5A). These candidates were first subjected to univariate Cox regression to screen for prognosis-related genes, followed by LASSO Cox regression to reduce overfitting and refine the model (Figure 5B and C). Subsequently, stepwise multivariate Cox regression further narrowed the list, and nine lncRNAs were ultimately identified as independent prognostic factors: LINC01554, LINC01134, LINC00661, LINC01096, MIAT, NBAT1, PICSAR, FIRRE, and LINC01139 (Figure 5D). The final risk model was constructed based on their expression and corresponding coefficients as follows: Risk score = (−0.044 * LINC01554) + (0.168 * LINC01134) + (0.053 * LINC00661) + (0.056 * LINC01096) + (−0.258 * MIAT) + (0.067 * NBAT1) + (0.074 * PICSAR) + (0.093 * FIRRE) + (0.028 * LINC01139).

Figure 5 Nine lncRNAs were identified as key genes affecting prognosis. (A) Differential lncRNA identification between C1 and C2 subtypes in TCGA. (B) Differential lncRNA prognostic forest map. (C) LASSO narrows the gene range. (D) Multi-factor forest map of characteristic genes. Note: The volcano map threshold is adj.p <0.05 and |log2FC|> 1.

Based on this formula, risk scores were calculated for each patient, and individuals were stratified into high- and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients in the high-risk group had significantly worse overall survival than those in the low-risk group (Figure 6A). The model also showed strong predictive accuracy, with a high area under the ROC curve (AUC) (Figure 6B). Expression profiling demonstrated that LINC01554 and MIAT were predominantly expressed in the low-risk group, whereas the other seven lncRNAs were significantly upregulated in the high-risk group (Figure 6C). The prognostic value of this model was further validated in the independent GSE43619 cohort, with similar survival stratification and predictive performance (Figure 6D–F).

Figure 6 A prognostic risk model was constructed based on 9-lncRNA. (A–C) ROC curve of risk model, KM survival curve and heat map of 9-lncRNA expression between risk groups in TCGA cohort. (D–F) ROC curve of risk model, KM survival curve and 9-lncRNA expression heat map between risk groups in GSE43619 cohort. Notes: (A, D) The X-axis represents the follow-up time (years), and the Y-axis indicates overall survival probability.

Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of the 9-lncRNA Risk Model: Prognostic Value, Immune Infiltration, and Drug Response

To evaluate the clinical relevance of the 9-lncRNA-based risk score, we compared the clinicopathological features between high- and low-risk groups in the TCGA cohort. As tumor grade and AJCC stage increased, the corresponding risk score also significantly increased, indicating a strong association between molecular risk and disease severity (Figure 7A). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified both RiskScore and AJCC stage as independent prognostic factors for overall survival (Figure 7B and C). A combined nomogram integrating RiskScore and AJCC stage demonstrated that RiskScore had the greatest impact on survival prediction (Figure 7D). The calibration curve showed strong agreement between predicted and observed survival at 1, 3, and 5 years (Figure 7E), and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed that the nomogram and RiskScore provided greater net clinical benefit than traditional clinical indicators (Figure 7F).

Figure 7 RiskScore combined with clinicopathological features to improve prognostic model and survival prediction. (A) Riskscore difference between clinical features in TCGA. (B and C) Riskscore and clinical characteristics of single factor and multivariate results. (D) Riskscore combined with AJCC Stage to establish a nomogram. (E and F) Calibration and Decision Curves for Nomogram.

To explore immune landscape differences between risk groups, we used ESTIMATE and found that the low-risk group had significantly higher StromalScore, ImmuneScore, and ESTIMATEScore, along with lower tumor purity, suggesting a more active immune microenvironment (Figure 8A and B). Further correlation analysis using CIBERSORT indicated that RiskScore was negatively associated with CD8⁺ T cells and M1 macrophages, but positively correlated with immunosuppressive cells such as Tregs and M0 macrophages (Figure 8C). Moreover, the low-risk group exhibited higher Immunophenoscore (IPS) and lower Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) scores, suggesting a greater potential for response to immunotherapy (Figure 8D and E). RiskScore also showed a significant correlation with key immune-related signatures, including IFN-γ response, TGF-β response, and aneuploidy score, underscoring its impact on the tumor immune microenvironment (Figure 8F).

Figure 8 Difference analysis of tumor microenvironment in TCGA risk group. (A) ESTIMATE score between TCGA risk groups. (B) Tumor purity difference between TCGA risk groups. (C) Correlation between Riskscore and CIBERSOER immune score. (D and E) Comparison of immunotherapy sensitivity between TCGA risk groups. (F) Correlation analysis between Riskscore and IFN-gamma Response, TGF-beta Response, Aneuploidy score. Notes: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

To assess potential chemotherapeutic responsiveness, we predicted drug sensitivity across risk groups using pRRophetic. Notably, BI-2536, GNF-2, WH-4-023, Vinorelbine, and A-443654 were predicted to be more effective in the high-risk group, while Roscovitine, HG-6-64-1, KIN001-135, Phenformin, and DMOG were more suitable for the low-risk group (Figure 9A). Finally, pathway analysis using ssGSEA revealed that RiskScore positively correlated with proliferation-related pathways (eg, E2F targets, G2M checkpoint), and negatively correlated with metabolism-related pathways (eg, bile acid metabolism, fatty acid metabolism) (Figure 9B). These findings suggest that the 9-lncRNA RiskScore not only reflects clinical aggressiveness and immune evasion, but also informs therapeutic stratification and targeted treatment decisions.

Figure 9 Drug sensitivity and functional enrichment analysis in the prognostic model. (A) Drug sensitivity difference between risk groups. (B) Riskscore and differential pathway correlation.

The Expression of Five lncRNAs Was Verified by RT-qPCR and Western Blotting

In order to verify the expression of five lncRNAs in the model, the liver cancer cell line Li-7 was inoculated into an ultra-low adsorption culture plate and cultured under hypoxia conditions for 24 hours to establish a hypoxia-anoikis model (Figure 10A). The expression of LINC01554, FIRRE, LINC01139, LINC01134 and NBAT1 was detected by RT-qPCR. The results showed that the expression of LINC01554 decreased, while the expression of FIRRE, LINC01139, LINC01134 and NBAT1 was lower (Figure 10B). Subsequently, siRNA was employed to knock down the expression of LINC01554 and LINC01139 in Li-7 cells, with apoptosis evaluated under a hypoxia-anoikis model using flow cytometry. Compared to the control group, the expression levels of LINC01554 and LINC01139 were significantly reduced (Figure 10C). Notably, the proportion of apoptotic cells was decreased in the si-LINC01554 group and increased in the si-LINC01139 group relative to the si-NC group (Figure 10D).

Figure 10 Western blotting and RT-qPCR were used to verify the LncRNA in the cell hypoxia and anoikis model. (A) Hypoxia of liver cancer cell line Li-7 was verified by Western blotting. (B) The relative expression of LINC01554, FIRRE, LINC01139, LINC01134 and NBAT1 mRNA. (C)The LINC01554 and LINC01139 interference efficiency in Li-7 cells was determined by RT-qPCR. (D) The percentage of apoptotic cells in si-LINC01554 and si-LINC01139 was determined by flow cytometry. The experimental data were expressed as the mean ± SD of the three independent experiments, and the asterisks indicated p values (** p < 0.01,*** p < 0.001,**** p < 0.0001).

Discussion

HCC is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths globally, with metastasis being a major contributor to patient mortality.²⁴ Due to the high rates of recurrence and metastasis, the prognosis for HCC patients after chemotherapy or drug treatment remains poor.²⁵ While some biomarkers assist in decision-making and guiding HCC treatment, they are still limited.²⁶ Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is an important diagnostic biomarker for HCC. However, over 30% of HCC patients exhibit AFP negativity, highlighting the critical need for new biomarkers.²⁷ LncRNAs, due to their tissue specificity, stability, and significant roles in gene regulatory networks, offer advantages as therapeutic and predictive biomarkers.²⁸ The lncRNA MIR210HG can promote HCC tumorigenesis and angiogenesis by upregulating the expression of mRNA PFKFB4 and SPAG4, effectively predicting the prognosis of HCC patients. It can provide important clinical references for evaluating patient recurrence and metastasis risks.²⁹ The discovery and application of more lncRNA biomarkers will significantly enhance the prediction and diagnostic capabilities of HCC metastasis, providing new avenues for developing personalized treatment strategies.

Hypoxia and anoikis are common stress factors in the tumor microenvironment that impact tumor progression and metastasis by regulating gene expression and cell signaling pathways. The hypoxia microenvironment induces significant changes in the expression of numerous lncRNAs, impacting the behavior of HCC cells. HABON is transcriptionally activated by HIF-1α under hypoxia conditions to facilitate the transcriptional activation of BNIP3, leading to elevated BNIP3 expression levels and promoting the growth, proliferation, and clone formation of HCC cells under hypoxia conditions.³⁰ Cancer recurrence and metastasis represent a multifaceted process involving various steps and factors, wherein evading anoikis serves as a pivotal stage.³¹ HCC cells thwart anoikis and bolster metastasis through diverse molecular mechanisms, including integrin signaling, oxidative stress, and Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition (EMT).^32–34 Notably, the collaboration between integrin β4 and the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) enhances HCC resistance to anoikis by activating the FAK-AKT signaling pathway.³⁵ LncRNA plays a crucial role in the regulation of anoikis. For example, studies have shown that the LncRNA FOXD2-AS1/miR7/TERT pathway can enhance the survival rate and anchorage-independent growth of thyroid cancer cells.³⁶ LncRNA HOTAIR plays a crucial role in EMT by regulating the expression and activation of c-Met and its membrane co-localization partner Caveolin-1, as well as membrane organization, thereby helping HCC cells produce anoikis resistance and evade tumor immunity.³⁷ Our data indicate that certain lncRNAs undergo changes under hypoxia and anchorage-independent conditions, potentially serving as prognostic biomarkers for HCC.

In this study, through a comprehensive analysis of hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs, HCC patients were categorized into two molecular subtypes using cluster analysis. The proportion of subtype C1, characterized by a proliferative phenotype, and C2 immune subtypes exceeded that of subtype C2. HCC was classified into proliferative and non-proliferative subtypes, with the former displaying high proliferation rates, chromosomal instability, and activation of the Akt/mTOR signaling pathway.³⁸ The proliferative subtype correlated with immune subtypes C1 and C3, while C2 was linked to the non-proliferative subtype. Subtype C1 was distinguished by poor differentiation, elevated tumor grade, presence of macrovascular invasion, increased proliferation markers (PLK1, MKI67), and overexpression of stem cell genes (EPCAM and AFP).³⁹ This study revealed that tumor cells of C1 subtype tended to accumulate mutations, showcasing heightened heterogeneity and malignancy, resulting in a poorer patient prognosis. These findings suggest that the C1 subtype exhibits a stronger immune evasive capability and lower sensitivity to immunotherapy, whereas patients with the C2 subtype demonstrate a relatively improved prognosis.

Concerning immunotherapy, tumors are categorized into three types: immune-desert, immune-excluded, and immune-inflamed, determined by the presence and activity of immune cells within the tumor microenvironment.⁴⁰ Immune rejection primarily manifests as an immunosuppressive state, featuring ineffective immune cell infiltration that hinders T cells from reaching the core of the tumor due to various immunosuppressive factors.⁴¹ The immune-inflamed type denotes an active immune response characterized by substantial infiltration of T cells and other immune cells in the tumor, alongside high expression levels of inflammation-related cytokines.⁴² Our risk scoring model, based on nine lncRNAs, further confirmed the prognostic value of these lncRNAs in HCC. We noted that the high-risk group, particularly the C1 subtype, exhibited more immunosuppressive elements in the tumor microenvironment, including increased expression of regulatory T cells (Tregs), inactivated M0 macrophages, and MDSC. This aligns with their lower responsiveness to immunotherapy, suggesting a potentially limited reaction to current immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). This corresponds to the characteristics of the “immune-excluded” subtype in HCC immunotyping, where tumors typically exhibit a highly immunosuppressive microenvironment that hinders immune cell infiltration and cytotoxic activity, and express high levels of immunosuppressive molecules such as PD-L1 and CTLA-4.⁴³ Notably, activated CD8+ T and NK cells coexist with immunosuppressive cells, suggesting a possible “immune-exhausted” state that may limit effector function.⁴⁴ This implies that immunosuppression could be a barrier to immunotherapy, highlighting the potential need for combined targeting strategies. Conversely, the low-risk group, primarily the C2 subtype, displayed reduced immunosuppressive factors and heightened immune cell activity, such as activated CD8+ T cells and memory CD4+ T cells, in line with the profiles of “immunoinflammatory” HCC. Immunoinflammatory HCC typically exhibits increased immune activity and enhanced sensitivity to ICI treatment. Consequently, patients with the C2 subtype show a more favorable prognosis and a more positive response to immunotherapy. Conversely, the high-risk group may demonstrate a diminished response to existing immune checkpoint inhibitors due to its specific traits. Potential therapeutic targets include PD-1/PD-L1, CTLA-4, TGF-β, and VEGF pathways, which, when targeted, can alleviate T cell suppression, improve the tumor microenvironment, and boost the anti-tumor immune response.⁴⁵ Different immunophenotypes of HCC display diverse responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors like PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, highlighting the need to explore combined treatment strategies to enhance outcomes.⁴⁶ For instance, the combination therapy of atezolizumab (anti-PD-L1) and bevacizumab (anti-VEGF) has received approval as a novel first-line treatment, significantly enhancing survival rates.⁴⁷ LncRNA holds substantial promise in immune combination therapy by regulating immune checkpoints, acting as a predictive biomarker, offering insights into therapeutic efficacy, and serving as a target or tool in combined therapy.^48–50 For example, lncRNA UCA1 augments the anti-tumor effect of PD-1 inhibitors by suppressing miR-204-5p and boosting PD-L1 expression.⁵¹ LncRNA can play a crucial role as a target or tool in collaboration with other treatments. As an illustration, si-PROX1-AS1 interacts with miR-520d to modulate PD-L1, promoting colorectal cancer (CRC) cell growth, spread, and evasion of the immune response.⁵² These lncRNAs contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of immunotherapy and possess significant potential in combined immunotherapy.

In this study, a prognostic model was constructed based on nine hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNA (LINC01554, MIAT, FIRRE, LINC01139, LINC01096, PICSAR, LINC01134, NBAT1, LINC00661) genes, which revealed the important role of HCC in prognosis and tumor immunophenotype, as well as the metastasis and progression of HCC, and could be used as a reliable biomarker for predicting the prognosis and immunotherapy response of HCC. This study identifies hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNA subtypes and constructs a prognostic model, providing new insight into the molecular classification and treatment stratification of HCC.

Among the nine hypoxia- and anoikis-related lncRNAs, LINC01554 and LINC01139 were selected for focused experimental validation. Our results showed that under hypoxia and anoikis conditions, knockdown of LINC01554 inhibited apoptosis, suggesting its role as a tumor suppressor. In contrast, knockdown of LINC01139 significantly increased apoptosis, indicating that it promotes tumor cell survival. Previous studies have reported that LINC01554 suppresses HCC progression by regulating the miR-148b-3p/EIF4E3 axis, while LINC01139 facilitates tumor development through the miR-30/MYBL2 axis.^53,54 Moreover, LINC01139 is involved in modulating glucose metabolism disturbances, remodeling the tumor microenvironment, and enhancing immunotherapy efficacy.⁵⁵ These lncRNAs may be regulated by the hypoxia-anoikis tumor microenvironment; however, their precise functions in HCC remain to be fully elucidated. The exact upstream regulatory mechanisms and downstream signaling pathways of these lncRNAs require further in-depth functional studies, representing important directions for future research.

Nonetheless, this study has several limitations. Although the prognostic value of our model was validated in both TCGA and GSE43619 cohorts, it has yet to be confirmed in larger, prospective, and multi-center clinical datasets to establish its true clinical utility. Moreover, while RT-qPCR was used to verify lncRNA expression, the precise mechanisms by which these lncRNAs regulate gene expression and cellular behavior remain unclear and require further functional investigation. Although preliminary apoptosis assays under hypoxia–anoikis conditions support their functional relevance, more comprehensive validations—including proliferation, migration, invasion assays, rescue experiments, and exploration of downstream pathways such as PI3K/AKT and EMT—are necessary. Future studies should also integrate advanced techniques like single-cell sequencing and incorporate clinical samples to fully elucidate the roles of these lncRNAs in HCC progression and their potential clinical applications.

Ethical Statement

In accordance with Article 32 of the Ethical Review Measures for Life Sciences and Medical Research Involving Humans (China, 2023), secondary research using fully anonymized data in non-interventional settings is exempt from both ethical review and informed consent requirements. This study did not involve any interaction with human participants, collection of biological samples, or implementation of invasive procedures. Therefore, it meets the current regulatory criteria for exemption from institutional ethical approval and informed consent.

Acknowledgments

Special thanks to Guangxi Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Preventive Medicine for supporting this study.

Disclosure

There is no conflict of interest in all authors.

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Key stat: 47% of US banking decision-makers say their institutions have already will have fully rolled out generative AI, up from 10% in 2023, said data from EY-Parthenon.

Beyond the chart:

• Over two-thirds (67%) of senior banking executives reported increased investment in genAI over last year, found a March Capgemini survey.
• However, 56% of US debit card holders say human oversight is very important to help resolve disputed transactions and 55% say the same about handling customer service issues, as noted in a June survey from Auriemma Group.

Use this chart: This is the time to move from pilot projects to full deployment. Laggards risk falling behind in customer experience, cost savings, and innovation. Strategy teams should benchmark where they stand against peers and identify quick-win use cases (like chatbots or risk modeling) to accelerate adoption.

Related EMARKETER reports:

Methodology: Data is from the July 2025 EY-Parthenon report titled “GenAI in Retail and Commercial Banking.” 100 US banking employees were surveyed during March 2025. The sample included 50 respondents from retail banks and 50 from commercial banks, all with direct involvement in or knowledge of genAI initiatives. Respondents held roles in client servicing, marketing, onboarding, product strategy, investment, or technology. Titles included C-level executives and heads of departments tied to genAI applications such as ChatGPT, DALL-E, OpenAI, and Microsoft Azure.

A chaotic nine months at the FDA has witnessed the toppling of more than half the agency’s senior leadership, the axing of 3,500 more staff and a safety scandal that upended the gene therapy sector, which was followed by the subsequent ouster—and surprising return—of CBER Director Vinay Prasad. But the first three quarters of 2025 have seen an average number of new drug approvals, according to an analysis by Jefferies.

“Fears of a dysfunctional FDA may be overblown,” the analysts wrote to investors on Aug. 25. “We think the FDA’s actions YTD have not signaled a more stringent or irrational agency.”

The Jefferies group counted 28 total approvals as of that date between the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) and Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) combined and extrapolated out to 43 by the end of 2025, a number that would fit squarely into the range of 37–68 over the past 5 years.

“The bottom line is, we didn’t sense anything drastically alarming or different compared to prior years,” Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai told BioSpace in an interview last month.

As for rejected drug applications, these were trending lower than last year, Jefferies reported Aug. 25, thanks to CDER being on pace to issue fewer CRLs compared with the past five years. CBER, on the other hand, was heading toward issuing more CRLs.

Rare Diseases on Track

The acceleration of therapies for rare diseases to the market has been a top-stated priority of FDA Commissioner Marty Makary since he took office in April. Makary first floated the idea of a conditional approval pathway for such therapies in one of his first media interviews, and the FDA has since rolled out the Rare Disease Evidence Principles, a new framework meant to streamline the approval of drugs for ultra-rare diseases.

“They seem to be following it through with what they want to achieve, especially within the rare disease side, and expediting drugs and so forth,” Tsai said.

This year, the regulator has approved 14 novel therapies for rare diseases—including ones for alkaptonuria, recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa and phenylketonuria. On the other hand, seven others received complete response letters, some of which came as quite a surprise to the company executives and other experts.

Capricor Therapeutics CEO Linda Marbán was caught off-guard after the company’s cell therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy was rejected in July, saying on Capricor’s second quarter earnings call the next month, “The complete response letter was unexpected given the trajectory of positive interactions [with the FDA].” And 22 scientists who designed and ran the trials of Replimune’s advanced melanoma drug, RP1, wrote an open letter urging the FDA to reconsider its July rejection.

Stealth BioTherapeutics has had success getting the FDA to reconsider its May rejection of Barth syndrome drug Forzinity. After refiling in August, the company was granted an expedited review and won accelerated approval less than a month later.

The highest number of novel drug approvals this year have come from the oncology space, according to data collected by both BioSpace and Jefferies. Treatments for infectious diseases and autoimmune/immunological diseases are also high among this year’s FDA approvals.

New Admin, New Party

In the past 25 years, control of the White House has jumped back and forth from Republican to Democrat multiple times. During three of those changeovers, a new FDA commissioner was installed during the administration’s first year. As drug approvals are not political decisions, “You would not expect a flood of new drug approvals in the inaugural year of a new administration,” suggested Steven Grossman, policy and regulatory consultant and author of the FDA Matters blog.

This has proven to be the case, Grossman said, except in 2017, during President Trump’s first term. That year, when Scott Gottlieb took the reins from Robert Califf, who served as commissioner during Barack Obama’s second term, the FDA approved 46 new drugs—more than double the number greenlit the previous year.

“The last two years of an eight-year administration are not known for policymaking or starting new initiatives,” Grossman told BioSpace. “I would not expect that to have slowed drug approvals in 2015 or 2016 or led to a surge of approvals in 2017.”

Indeed, in 2009, when Margaret Hamburg took the helm at the FDA during Obama’s first year in office, the agency approved just one more novel drug than in 2008. The results of this year’s changeover—from Califf, who served a second stint as commissioner, to Makary—are still-to-be-determined.

Potentially adding a new wrinkle to future data analysis attempts is the current U.S. government shutdown. The FDA announced on Oct. 1 that it would be unable to accept any new drug applications until after the shutdown is resolved—as to do so would require the agency to accept industry user fees assessed for 2026, which it is unable to do during this “lapse period,” Leerink Partners explained in a note to investors that morning.

Only time will tell if this has any bearing on 2025’s ultimate approval tally.

Distinguishing between benign and malignant parotid tumors remains a clinical challenge. Moreover, the true extent of tumor infiltration is often underestimated upon clinical examination [5].

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance and inter-observer reliability of conventional MRI and ADC histogram analysis in differentiating benign from malignant parotid gland masses.

In harmony with our findings, Rajbhar et al. [6] conducted a five-year retrospective analysis of 67 surgically excised salivary gland tumors to evaluate demographic, clinical, and histopathological patterns. They reported a male-to-female ratio of 1.1:1, indicating a slight male predominance consistent with broader trends in salivary gland tumors. They also found a higher proportion of benign tumors, with 85.1% benign and only 14.9% malignant cases, and the parotid gland was the most frequently affected site, accounting for 76.1% of tumors, with benign tumors predominantly arising from this gland (80.7%), supporting its established role as the primary site of salivary neoplasms.

In concordance with our findings, Tartaglione et al. [7] retrospectively evaluated pre-surgical MRI findings in 94 patients with histologically confirmed parotid gland tumors to identify imaging characteristics predictive of malignancy and found that the majority of cases were benign 69 (73%), while 25 (27%) cases were malignant, and most tumors in their cohort were unilateral. Also, they identified multifocal lesions in three Warthin’s tumors and one pleomorphic adenoma, indicating that multifocality, while less frequent, can occur in both benign and malignant pathologies.

Parallel to our results, Xu et al. [8] conducted a retrospective MRI-based study on 73 patients with histologically confirmed parotid tumors and found that for ADC value, the intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.85 and P value < 0.001, indicating an excellent agreement between the two observers.

In harmony with our findings, Takumi et al. [9] conducted a study using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to assess its ability to differentiate malignant from benign parotid gland tumors. They evaluated 59 tumors using ADC and fractional anisotropy (FA) metrics at 3 T MRI and reported a mean ADC value of 0.93 ± 0.21 × 10⁻3 mm²/s for malignant tumors and 1.19 ± 0.50 × 10⁻3 mm²/s for benign tumors, with no statistically significant difference between them (P = 0.225). Although the difference did not reach significance in their sample, their numerical trend toward lower ADC in malignancy supports the directionality observed in our study. They also found an inter-observer agreement which was excellent, with ICCs of 0.98 for both ADC and FA.

In addition, Zhang et al. [10] included 67 patients with 71 salivary gland tumors who underwent MRI examination to evaluate the diagnostic performances of DWI and intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) for discriminating between benign and malignant tumors and found that an analysis of inter-observer agreement showed that for all DWI- and IVIM-related parameters, the mean values showed the highest ICCs (0.992 [95% CI: 0.987–0.995] for ADC mean (P < 0.001).

In our study, malignant lesions were associated with older patient age and significantly lower ADC values, including mean, minimum, and maximum ADCs, along with higher skewness, indicating asymmetric diffusion.

In partial agreement with our results, Wang et al. [11] conducted a retrospective study of 526 patients to differentiate benign from malignant parotid tumors using clinical and ultrasound features alongside radiomics and deep learning models. They reported no significant difference in gender distribution between groups (male: 53.80%, female: 46.20%; P = 0.923), consistent with our findings. Similarly, calcification showed no significant association with tumor type (P = 0.264). In contrast, they found no significant difference in margin definition (P = 0.176) or cystic component presence (P = 1.0). This discrepancy may be attributed to the higher soft tissue contrast and structural detail provided by MRI compared to ultrasound.

Supporting our results, Razek et al. [12] performed a prospective study involving 27 patients—18 with pleomorphic adenomas and 9 with salivary gland malignancies, to evaluate the role of DWI and histogram analysis of ADC maps in characterizing parotid tumors. Whole-lesion ADC histogram parameters were assessed, revealing significantly higher ADCmean (1.93 ± 0.34 vs. 1.26 ± 0.54, P = 0.007), ADCmin (0.96 ± 0.29 vs. 0.62 ± 0.16, P = 0.02), and ADCmax (2.26 ± 0.36 vs. 1.52 ± 0.56, P < 0.001) in the pleomorphic adenoma group compared to the malignant group. Contrastingly, skewness was significantly greater in pleomorphic adenoma (0.57 ± 0.56 vs. 0.37 ± 0.52, P < 0.001), while no significant difference in kurtosis was observed (P = 0.86).

Also, Chen et al. [13] conducted a retrospective study to evaluate the diagnostic performance of histogram features derived from DWI, diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI), and IVIM for differentiating benign from malignant parotid gland tumors. They reported significantly lower ADCmean and ADCmedian values in malignant tumors compared to benign ones (982.81 vs. 1194.39 × 10⁻⁶ mm²/s and 968.38 vs. 1189.38 × 10⁻⁶ mm²/s, respectively; P = 0.02 for both). They also reported no significant differences in kurtosis between malignant and benign lesions in ADC-based analysis (P = 0.18).

In another study population, Zhu et al. [14] conducted a retrospective study aiming to differentiate benign from malignant palatal lesions using conventional MRI features and ADC histogram analysis. The study included 86 histopathologically confirmed patients (57 with malignant and 29 with benign palatal lesions). It assessed nine ADC histogram parameters derived from DWI, alongside conventional MRI features such as lesion size, capsule presence, and nerve invasion. They found that malignant lesions had significantly lower ADC50 (1.01 ± 0.16 × 10⁻3 mm²/s vs. 1.51 ± 0.33, P < 0.001), ADC10 (0.79 ± 0.15 vs. 1.22 ± 0.29, P = 0.001), and overall mean ADC (1.02 ± 0.19 vs. 1.51 ± 0.37, P < 0.001) compared to benign lesions, which mirrors our observation of consistently lower ADC values across various measures in malignant tumors. Additionally, they reported significantly larger lesion size in malignant cases (P = 0.02), as well as higher frequency of nerve invasion (P = 0.022) and absent capsule (P = 0.019).

In our study, both observers demonstrated high and consistent diagnostic performance in using ADC values to differentiate malignant parotid lesions, with excellent agreement. At the optimal cut-off value of < 1.15 × 10⁻3 mm²/s, observer 1 achieved an AUC of 0.847 and observer 2 an AUC of 0.857, with closely matched sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy values. This strong alignment indicates a high level of interobserver concordance in ADC-based malignancy assessment.

In harmony with our findings, Al-Kheshen et al. [15] investigated the role of diffusion-weighted MRI and ADC values in differentiating benign from malignant salivary gland tumors. They reported a significantly lower mean ADC in malignant lesions. They achieved high diagnostic performance using a cut-off value of < 0.85 × ^10⁻3 mm²/s, with a sensitivity of 93.7%, specificity of 95.8%, and overall accuracy of 94.4%. Although their metrics were higher, the discrepancy may be attributed to differences in imaging parameters, cut-off thresholds, and population characteristics. Nonetheless, both studies confirm the strong diagnostic utility of ADC in parotid tumor characterization.

In addition, Aly Nada et al. [16] investigated the role of DWI and ADC in distinguishing between benign and malignant parotid gland lesions. They reported a statistically significant difference in ADC values, setting a cut-off at 0.93 × 10⁻3 mm²/s, which yielded a sensitivity of 72.1% and specificity of 82%, closely aligning with our diagnostic performance.

Moreover, in another population, Eida et al. [17] assessed the diagnostic value of ADC mapping in distinguishing benign from malignant salivary gland tumors in a cohort of 31 patients and found that malignant tumors exhibited significantly fewer areas with high ADC values (≥ 1.8 × 10⁻3 mm²/s). Using a threshold of high ADC occupying < 5% of the tumor area, they reported a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 100%, and an overall accuracy of 97%. While their method involved spatial analysis of ADC distribution rather than a single cut-off value, it also underscores the utility of ADC in preoperative differentiation of salivary gland lesions, with methodological differences likely explaining the higher accuracy reported in their work.

Also in our study, ROC analysis revealed that mean ADC was the most reliable histogram parameter for differentiating malignant from benign parotid lesions., with an AUC of 0.793, 75.6% sensitivity, 67.8% specificity, and 74.3% overall accuracy. Minimum ADC showed fair diagnostic ability (AUC = 0.720) with slightly lower specificity and accuracy. Maximum ADC had the highest sensitivity (80.5%) but the lowest specificity (59.3%) and overall diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.712, accuracy = 67.2%).

In agreement with our findings, Razek et al. [12] identified mean ADC as the most accurate parameter, reporting an AUC of 0.948 with 88.9% sensitivity and 94.4% specificity at a cut-off of 1.16 × 10⁻3 mm²/s. Their minimum ADC also showed comparable diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.753, sensitivity = 88.9%, specificity = 61.1%), aligning with our results. Similarly, maximum ADC was the least discriminative in both studies, with their AUC of 0.873 slightly exceeding ours, likely due to population differences and tumor subtype stratification.

In partial agreement with our findings, Hepp et al. [2] conducted a prospective study involving 73 patients to compare the diagnostic performance of full ADC histogram distribution curves against mean ADC values for parotid tumor differentiation. They reported that the mean ADC provided higher sensitivity than histogram distribution (71.4% vs. 61.9%), aligning with our finding that mean ADC was the most sensitive individual parameter. However, they found that histogram-based analysis offered superior specificity (75.0% vs. 71.2%) and higher predictive accuracy during cross-validation (71.2% vs. 67.1%). This contrast in specificity may be attributed to their use of an advanced full-curve comparison approach.

However, Sobhy et al. [18] conducted a prospective study on 25 patients using combined conventional MRI and DWI to evaluate the diagnostic value of ADC in parotid tumor characterization. They reported markedly higher diagnostic accuracy, with a sensitivity of 92.86% and specificity of 90.91%, alongside equally high PPV and NPV values. These superior outcomes may be attributed to the smaller sample size, combined morphologic and diffusion assessment, and likely inclusion of distinct tumor subtypes, which can affect diffusion behavior and classification thresholds.

• China’s new government procurement policy introduces a 20 percent price evaluation advantage for qualifying domestic products and sets clearer standards for what counts as “Made in China.”
• This poses real challenges for foreign businesses – especially those with offshore production – but also creates a more transparent and fairer competitive environment.
• To stay competitive, companies should proactively localize production, strengthen compliance systems, and align with evolving standards to seize new opportunities in China’s vast public procurement market.

On September 30, 2025, China’s State Council issued the official version of the Notice on Implementing Domestic Product Standards and Related Policies in Government Procurement (Guobanfa [2025] No. 34, hereinafter, the Notice), confirming a major shift in how domestic products are evaluated in public tenders.

Effective January 1, 2026, the policy is largely unchanged from the draft circulated in December. Among others, products manufactured or substantially transformed in China will enjoy a 20 percent evaluated-price advantage in competitive government procurement. In practice, this means a “made in China” product could be up to 25 percent more expensive than a foreign alternative and still win the bid based on the evaluated price.

This policy aims to refine China’s government procurement system by promoting a more unified, open, fair, and orderly market. By clearly defining what constitutes a “domestic product,” the regulation aims to guide and standardize support for local goods – without veering into excessive protectionism or discrimination.

For foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) already operating in China or considering entry into the government procurement space, this development is highly consequential. It could affect FIEs’ eligibility for certain public projects, reshape supply chain configurations, and influence product localization and market entry decisions.

This article breaks down the key provisions of the new policy from a foreign business perspective, answers the most pressing questions, and offers practical strategies to help you navigate the evolving procurement landscape – seizing opportunities while managing risks.

Key provisions of China’s new government procurement policy

Defining “domestic products”

A central feature of the newly issued policy is the clear definition of what qualifies as a “domestic product” eligible for preferential treatment in government procurement. According to the Notice, a product must meet three cumulative criteria to be recognized as domestic:

Criterion 1: Substantial transformation within China

To qualify, a product must be produced within China’s customs territory and undergo a process that results in a change in attributes – meaning the raw materials or components are transformed into a new product with a distinct name, characteristics, or use.

The regulation explicitly excludes certain activities from being considered “production,” such as:

• Protective operations during transportation or storage;
• Packaging, display, and other sales-related actions;
• Branding or labeling;
• Simple painting, polishing, or repackaging; and
• Other activities that clearly do not constitute manufacturing.

Criterion 2: Local component cost ratio

The cost of components produced within China must account for a specified proportion of the product’s total cost. This ratio will be determined by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in collaboration with relevant industry authorities.

Criterion 3: Requirements for key components and processes

For certain categories of products – particularly those involving advanced technologies or national security concerns – additional requirements apply. These include the need for key components and critical manufacturing processes to be completed within China.

Transition period

The MOF, together with industry regulators, will develop product-specific standards – regarding criteria 2 and 3 – over the next five years, with a transition period of 3 to 5 years to allow for gradual compliance.

Cost accounting rules for domestic components

The cost of components produced within China must be calculated in accordance with the Basic Rules for Cost Accounting of Components Produced in China. This standardized approach ensures consistency in determining whether a product meets the domestic content threshold.

Component hierarchy

• Primary components refer to the parts that directly make up the final product.
• Secondary components are those that directly constitute the primary components.
• If a primary component cannot be further broken down, it is treated as a secondary component for accounting purposes.

Inclusion criteria

• The entire cost of a secondary component is counted toward the domestic component cost only if it is produced within China.
• If a secondary component is not produced in China, its cost is excluded from the domestic component calculation.

Cost basis

The total product cost and the cost of individual components should be calculated based on reliable accounting data, including:

• Internal cost accounting records;
• Procurement contracts; and
• Purchase and inventory records.

Further clarifications

Any additional issues or ambiguities related to cost accounting will be addressed through supplementary regulations issued by the MOF in coordination with relevant authorities.

Get smart: This rule ensures a transparent and consistent method for assessing domestic content, focusing not just on where final assembly occurs, but on the origin of underlying components. It also provides flexibility for future refinement as industry practices evolve.

Scope of application

The domestic product standards outlined in the new policy apply specifically to goods-related government procurement projects. This includes:

• Direct procurement of goods; and
• Goods components embedded within service contracts.

The applicable scope is aligned with the “Goods” category in the Government Procurement Item Classification Catalogue, but with explicit exclusions. The following items are not covered by the domestic product standards:

• Buildings and structures;
• Cultural relics;
• Books and archives;
• Animals and plants;
• Agricultural products;
• Mineral resources;
• Energy sources (for example: electricity, natural gas);
• Food ingredients; and
• Intangible assets.

Get smart: The policy primarily targets tangible, manufactured products with identifiable supply chains and component structures. It does not apply to services themselves or to items that are immovable, naturally occurring, or not subject to industrial production.

Support measures for “domestic products”

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To enhance the competitiveness of domestic products in public tenders, the Notice introduces a price evaluation advantage mechanism. This policy applies when domestic and non-domestic products compete in the same procurement process, offering a structured incentive for suppliers to prioritize locally produced goods.

Single-product procurement

In cases where a tender involves the procurement of a single product, suppliers offering a qualifying domestic product will benefit from a 20 percent price deduction during bid evaluation. This means the product’s quoted price will be reduced by 20 percent for evaluation purposes, effectively improving its competitiveness without altering the actual contract price.

Mixed-product procurement

For procurement packages containing multiple products, a supplier may receive the same 20 percent price deduction across all quoted items – provided that domestic products account for at least 80 percent of the total product cost offered by that supplier. This encourages suppliers to maximize the use of domestic products across their bids.

Documentation and declaration

Procurement entities and agencies must clearly specify in tender documents that suppliers are required to submit either:

• A Declaration Letter on Compliance with Domestic Product Standards (template provided in Annex 2 of the Notice); or
• Other supporting documents as prescribed by the Ministry of Finance and relevant authorities.

Once a supplier submits a valid declaration or approved documentation, the product is to be treated as a domestic product. Procurement entities must not request additional proof beyond what is specified. Suppliers found to have submitted false declarations or forged documents to secure contracts will be held accountable under the Government Procurement Law and other applicable regulations.

Additionally, procurement entities must publicly disclose the declaration letters or supporting documents submitted by successful bidders alongside the award results.

Verification and dispute resolution

To ensure fair and consistent enforcement of the domestic product standards, the Notice outlines a structured approach for handling disputes that may arise during government procurement – particularly in relation to whether a product qualifies as domestic, meets localization thresholds, or satisfies key component and process requirements.

Determining whether a product is produced in China

• For assembled or processed products, verification relies on documentation such as domestic procurement contracts, production records, or other evidence confirming that manufacturing occurred within China.
• For raw material-based products (for example: steel, ceramics), the manufacturer’s address on the packaging serves as a key indicator of domestic production.

Verifying the domestic component cost ratio

• Suppliers must provide supporting materials – such as accounting data, procurement contracts, and inventory records – to demonstrate compliance with the required domestic component cost ratio. The MOF will assess these materials based on the established cost accounting rules.

Confirming localization of key components and processes

• For key components, the same verification method applies: suppliers must show that these parts were produced within China.
• For critical manufacturing processes, suppliers must submit records proving that the processes were completed domestically.

If a supplier fails to provide sufficient evidence, the product will not be eligible for domestic product support policies. This may affect the outcome of the procurement process and could lead to legal consequences under the Government Procurement Law if false documentation is involved.

International commitments

Where international treaties or agreements to which China is a party contain provisions that differ from the domestic product policy, those treaty obligations shall prevail. This ensures alignment with China’s global trade commitments and avoids conflicts in cross-border procurement practices.

Questions global trading partners are asking

1. Does my product qualify as a “domestic product”?

A: If your product undergoes substantial manufacturing or processing within China – not just simple assembly or branding – it may qualify. However, future compliance will also depend on meeting domestic component cost ratio thresholds, which are yet to be announced. In certain sectors (for example, high-end equipment, IT), key components and processes may also need to be localized.

2. Will foreign enterprises be excluded from China’s procurement market?

A: No. The policy explicitly guarantees equal treatment for all business entities, including foreign-invested firms. If your product meets the domestic product criteria, you are entitled to the same 20 percent price evaluation advantage as local suppliers. Discrimination based on brand origin, registration location, or ownership structure is prohibited.

3. What preparations are needed to qualify under the new standards?

A: To benefit from the policy, your product must:

• Be substantially produced or processed in China;
• Include a high proportion of China-made components; and
• For certain industries, localize key technologies and processes.

4. Is this policy a sign of rising protectionism? Is China still open to foreign business?

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A: While the policy does prioritize domestic manufacturing, it’s not a blanket move toward protectionism. Instead, it reflects China’s broader strategy to upgrade industries, foster innovation, and retain foreign investment, while still maintaining a commitment to fair and open competition.

In fact, FIEs can benefit from clearer pathways to qualify as domestic producers. It will reduce uncertainties that previously hindered foreign participation in China’s procurement market. By explicitly banning discrimination based on company origin or registration, in contrast to protectionism, the policy is expected to curb local favoritism and promote a more level playing field.

5. If my product doesn’t meet the standards, do I still have a chance?

A: Yes. Products that don’t qualify as domestic can still participate in procurement, but won’t receive the 20 percent price advantage. If your offering excels in technology, pricing, or service, it may still win bids. Not all projects require domestic products.

How should businesses prepare for the new procurement policy?

With China’s new government procurement policy set to take effect on January 1, 2026, businesses, especially FIEs, should begin preparing strategically to ensure compliance and competitiveness.

Currently, two of the three criteria – (2) the proportion of domestic component costs and (3) requirements for key components and critical manufacturing processes – are expected to be refined over the next three to five years. In the interim, products that are manufactured within China will generally be classified as domestically produced for procurement purposes.

However, businesses that rely heavily on imported components or offshore manufacturing should begin gradually enhancing local production in response to the evolving policy. This includes increasing the share of domestically sourced components and relocating key manufacturing processes to China in a structured and strategic manner.

A thorough supply chain review is essential. Companies should evaluate whether raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products are sourced and manufactured within China, in line with the clarified requirements of the “domestic product” classification under the Notice.

In addition, businesses should begin building robust documentation and compliance systems to support their participation in government procurement. With detailed rules for verifying domestic content and the potential for dynamic adjustments to ratio thresholds, maintaining transparent and well-organized records will help mitigate disqualification risks and improve procurement efficiency.

Key takeaway

China’s new government procurement policy undeniably introduces new barriers for foreign enterprises, particularly those whose products are not manufactured locally. The emphasis on domestic production, component sourcing, and localized processes means that companies relying heavily on overseas supply chains may face reduced competitiveness in public tenders.

However, the policy also brings greater clarity and transparency. By explicitly banning discrimination based on company origin, registration location, or ownership structure, the Notice creates a more level playing field for foreign-invested enterprises. This shift could unlock new growth opportunities for businesses willing to adapt.

Importantly, the policy is designed to support domestic industry and discourage manufacturing reshoring, not to deter foreign investment. It is expected that the government will have strong incentives to maintain fair competition, especially as it seeks to attract high-quality foreign participation in strategic sectors.

For foreign businesses, the path forward lies in proactively localizing production, strengthening compliance systems, and aligning with evolving standards. Those that do so will not only remain competitive but also deepen their integration into China’s vast and increasingly regulated procurement market.

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India is set for a blockbuster month of initial public offerings after a slow start to the year, as companies take advantage of a stock market rebound from the initial turbulence of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Two of the year’s biggest IPOs are hitting markets this week, with the $1.7bn listing of Tata Capital on Monday and the $1.3bn debut of LG Electronics’ India business on Tuesday. In total, analysts forecast about $5bn of IPOs this month, with another $5bn before the year-end.

The “India IPO pipeline is the most active it has been”, said Harish Raman, co-head of Asia equity capital markets at Citigroup.

Equities have recovered from an unexpectedly slow start to the year after Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs in April and a brief military conflict with Pakistan in May raised concerns about the country’s economic growth.

Although 50 per cent tariffs on India remain in place — among the highest in the world — the market has largely shrugged off the threat, with the Nifty 50 stock index up 14 per cent from an April low.

IPOs are on track to overtake last year’s record of $21bn. Much of the activity has been concentrated in October as steady earnings and recent government vows to overhaul the goods and services tax have “boosted overall confidence in the primary market”, said Pranav Haridasan, chief executive of Axis Securities.

Other expected listings include the $1bn-plus debut of ICICI Prudential Asset Management and that of Pine Labs, a digital payments company backed by PayPal and Temasek that hopes to raise nearly $700mn.

WeWork India, which the US parent sold to Indian property group Embassy last year, raised more than $350mn this month.

George Chan, EY’s global head of IPOs, said the rebound of activity in the second half was supported by strong valuation multiples and domestic investor demand.

“The rise in average deal size reflects growing investor optimism in sectors such as fintech, manufacturing and renewables,” he said in a report last week.

Domestic investors have put a net $63.2bn into the market this year, more than covering $25.3bn in net outflows of foreign holdings, according to data from Groww, one of India’s largest online trading platforms.

Mutual funds have become a popular vehicle for retail investors, with households ploughing about $3bn a month into funds through systematic investment plans, according to Yatin Singh, chief executive of investment banking at Emkay Global Financial Services.

The steady inflows in turn are “providing strong support to fundraising activity”, said Kailash Soni, head of India equity capital markets at Goldman Sachs.

But the domestic funds’ dominance has also shut out foreign investors from the IPO rush.

“Because the participation of domestic mutual funds is so heavy the allocations become very limited,” said Rita Tahilramani, investment director of Asian equities at Aberdeen, adding that allotments were “so minuscule that even if I make good money on that front it’s meaningless”.

She also raised concerns about “very expensive” valuations that mean “there’s nothing left on the table for an investor in the IPO”.

Nonetheless, domestic funds are expected to continue supporting the market, especially since the government restricts individual foreign investment by Indians to $250,000 a year.

“Indian investors don’t have the option of shopping around Asia for the best bargain,” said Singh, “so structurally, whatever monies come in need to get redeployed within India.”

By Kwanwoo Jun

  LG Electronics' third-quarter operating profit likely fell 8.4%, but the forecast still beat market consensus thanks to its affiliates' solid performance despite tough business conditions. 

  The South Korean consumer-electronics giant said in a preliminary earnings report Monday that its operating profit will likely come in at 688.90 billion won, equivalent to $481.9 million, for the July-September period, compared with 751.90 billion a year earlier. 

  The projected earnings were above a FactSet-compiled consensus estimate of 618.79 billion won. 

  Revenue is expected to have fallen 1.4% from a year earlier to 21.875 trillion won, LG Electronics said, also beating analysts' estimate in the FactSet survey. 

  Despite challenges from higher U.S. tariffs and a delayed recovery in global demand, its home-appliance segment remained competitive and continued to be the market leader, while its vehicle-component segment achieved record-high profitability, the company said. 

  LG Electronics said that its media and entertainment segment, which includes its television business, faced higher marketing costs amid intensifying global competition. 

  The company, which recently raised $1.3 billion by selling a 15% stake in its Indian unit, LG Electronics India, in an initial public offering, said it expects the proceeds to provide significant funding to accelerate business structure improvements and future growth initiatives. The Indian unit is set to list Tuesday. 

  The company is scheduled to release its full quarterly results later this month. 

  Write to Kwanwoo Jun at kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 12, 2025 22:43 ET (02:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could soon help anesthesiologists keep children safer in the operating room and improve their recovery with better pain management, suggests a systematic review presented at the ANESTHESIOLOGY^® 2025 annual meeting.

Providing anesthesia care for children is especially challenging because their anatomy can vary dramatically, even among patients of the same age. The researchers found AI performed better than standard methods for determining the appropriate size and placement of breathing tubes, monitoring oxygen levels and assessing postoperative pain. AI consistently: improved the prediction, mitigation and management of complications; enhanced clinical accuracy and decision-making; and allowed anesthesiologists to intervene sooner when complications occurred.

Think of AI as the co-pilot, while the anesthesiologist makes all the final decisions. AI can continuously analyze thousands of data points in real time and learn patterns from past cases, spotting subtle changes sooner and helping tailor decisions to each child’s unique anatomy. However, it does not replace the anesthesiologist’s training and expertise; it simply adds another layer of safety and support.”

Aditya Shah, B.S., lead author of the study and medical student at Central Michigan University College of Medicine, Saginaw

The researchers analyzed 10 studies and found that AI tools were more effective than current screening/analysis methods. Although AI tools for pediatric anesthesia are still in the research stage, their significant benefits make it likely they will be incorporated into practice in the near future, Shah said.

The studies show AI can improve:

• Oxygen level monitoring: Anesthesiologists use monitors to track a child’s oxygen level in the blood, but alarms don’t go off until the levels are already dangerously low. The anesthesiologist must act immediately and only has seconds to prevent serious harm. Researchers trained AI systems to continuously analyze second-by-second data of oxygen levels from anesthesia machines based on more than 13,000 surgeries. The most efficient AI model analyzes the child’s breathing, oxygen and heart data in real time, spotting tiny changes that humans can’t detect. It can warn anesthesiologists up to 60 seconds before the standard alarm system sounds. This gives anesthesiologists an extra minute to adjust the ventilator, clear secretions or fix the airway problem before a child’s oxygen level becomes dangerously low, potentially preventing heart or brain injury. The difference is like putting out a fire as soon as it starts versus being warned when smoke first appears, Shah said.
• Postoperative pain assessment: Pain is challenging to assess in children, who often can’t communicate how they feel. Current methods are about 85%-88% accurate, including the FLACC scale (Face, Legs, Activity, Cry, Consolability), a 0-10 point tool that health care professionals use to assess pain in children based on what they observe, and the Wong-Baker scale, which shows a series of faces from smiling to crying that the child points to. Researchers recorded more than 1,000 pain assessments in 149 toddlers – such as crying, agitation, guarding of the throat and facial expressions – and trained an AI system to recognize which clues were most important for detecting pain. The AI tool measured children’s pain with 95% accuracy.
• Accuracy of breathing tube size and placement: The size of breathing tubes and depth of placement in the throat are critical to avoiding serious complications, including injuring the airway lining and providing inadequate levels of oxygen. Current formulas use the child’s age or height, but children’s anatomy can vary quite a bit. Various studies show AI can make this process more accurate. In a study of 37,000 children, machine-learning models (a type of AI) used patient characteristics to predict breathing tube size and depth far more accurately, reducing errors by 40%-50%.

“AI can offer personalized, real-time decision support to anesthesiologists, potentially reducing complications and outcomes in children, where precision is especially critical,” said Patrick Fakhoury, B.S., co-author and a medical student at Central Michigan University College of Medicine. “For parents, the real value of AI is peace of mind.”