Category: 3. Business

MTN Group posted excellent operational and financial results for 2025, delivering significantly on our Ambition 2025 strategy and transitioning to Ambition 2030 priorities to capture value from the attractive structural growth opportunities brought about by accelerated data adoption and financial inclusion across Africa.

We reported very strong commercial outcomes led by MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana; a resilient performance from MTN South Africa; robust free cash flow; improved return generation; and a 45% jump in the dividend.

We also unveiled an enhanced shareholder remuneration framework, including a R6 billion share buyback programme, and re-affirmed our medium-term guidance, updating our return and leverage metrics.

“The Group’s overall performance in 2025 was excellent. In the final year of our Ambition 2025 strategy, we were proud to have exceeded the 300 million customers milestone in line with our priority to deepen digital and financial inclusion,” said MTN Group President and CEO Ralph Mupita.

At 31 December 2025 across 16 markets, we served more than 307 million voice, 172 million data and 70 million Mobile Money customers. Increases were supported by diligent commercial execution as well as sustained investment of R38 billion to enhance the capacity, coverage and quality of our networks and platforms.

MTN’s data traffic accelerated by 27%, with average monthly data use per customer up at 12.5GB from 10.8GB. We continued to scale our fintech platform, growing the ecosystem and benefiting from greater customer take-up of more advanced services. This supported a 15% increase in the volume of transactions to more than 23 billion in the year, with total transaction value topping US$500 billion.

In line with our commitment to create shared value, we contributed approximately R150 billion in economic and social value across Africa; expanded broadband coverage to more than 94% of the population; and cut the cost of data to communicate for customers by an average 14%. Our work with communities, nation states and other stakeholders led to the achievement of our strongest reputation and trust scores since the launch of our Reputation Index Survey in 2019.

Underpinned by improved macroeconomic conditions, the Group increased service revenue by nearly a quarter to R218 billion. In constant-currency terms MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana – which announced results in late February – lifted service revenue by 54.9% and 35.9% respectively. MTN SA increased service revenue by 2.0%, demonstrating operational resilience and sustained commercial momentum as it navigated the challenges of a mature and competitive market.

At R98.5 billion, earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (before once-off items) were up by more than a third in constant currency. This was supported by expense efficiencies of R3.6 billion in the year. Basic earnings per share (EPS) swung from a loss in 2024 to a profit in 2025 and adjusted headline EPS increased by 67%.

With a sustained healthy financial position and balance sheet flexibility, MTN declared a dividend of 500 cents per share from 345 cents in 2024, comfortably outstripping the minimum 370 cents the Board of Directors had anticipated.

The Group also announced an evolution of strategy, unveiling Ambition 2030, which streamlines our execution approach into three principal platforms of choice for consumers, homes and businesses: Connectivity; Fintech; and Digital Infrastructure. Through the strategy, we are energised to provide the leading customer experience, leveraging AI for growth and creating shared value.

While remaining vigilant to evolving risks in global geopolitics, Mupita said Ambition 2030 embodied the right framework to sustain MTN’s medium-term growth and value-creation journey: “We are hugely excited about Africa’s potential and are well positioned to leverage our scale, footprint and brand leadership to capture the significant structural growth opportunities identified. We are committed to accelerate our impact and empower the people, businesses and nation states we serve.”

For more detailed information, see our announcement on the JSE’s Stock Exchange News Service here.

By Mike Murphy

Smoke rises after energy installations in the United Arab Emirates were struck by Iran on Saturday.

U.S. stock-index futures reversed early losses on Sunday as the market braced for another surge in oil prices this week, with the conflict with Iran threatening to escalate further.

West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) (CLJ26) jumped as high as $102.57 a barrel Sunday, but quickly erased those gains and was last trading around $98 a barrel. Brent crude (BRN00) (BRNK26), the global benchmark, also gave up sharp early gains and was last trading around $103 a barrel. Oil prices crossed the $100-a-barrel level last week for the first time since 2022, and have surged about 40% since the start of the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran at the end of February.

After losing more than 100 points early in the session, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were recently up about 172 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures (ES00) and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) also bounced back strongly from early declines.

The turnaround may have been influenced by a Wall Street Journal report late Sunday that the Trump administration is poised to announce that multiple countries have agreed to help escort tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, though it was unclear if that might happen before or after the end of hostilities.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was above $72,000 after a Friday rally took it to nearly $74,000. Gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) futures fell. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY declined.

Last week, the three major indexes fell for a third straight week, with the Dow DJIA dropping 2%, the S&P 500 SPX sliding 1.6% and the Nasdaq COMP falling 1.3%.

Investors remain worried that oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will be targeted, after President Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. had bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, home to Iran’s main terminal for exporting oil. Trump threatened to strike Iran’s vital oil infrastructure sites next if Tehran doesn’t allow tankers to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Sunday, Iran warned the United Arab Emirates to evacuate three major ports, suggesting they could be targeted.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is moving about 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, raising the possibility of ground operations in Iran.

The International Energy Agency on Sunday said emergency reserves of oil would soon start flowing, after last week’s approval of the release of 400 million barrels held in strategic reserves. In an effort to relieve “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the agency said “stocks will be made available by IEA member countries in Asia Oceania immediately while stocks from IEA member countries in the Americas and Europe will be made available starting from the end of March.” The U.S. plans to release about 172 million barrels starting this week.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that Iran has not closed the strategic waterway and that Iran’s military has decided to let “a group of vessels” belonging to a variety countries to pass the strait safely and securely.

Trump over the weekend called on other countries’ navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, but so far none have publicly agreed to.

“The oil market is now flirting with the outer edge of disruption risk,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a weekend note. ” Every uptick in oil tightens financial conditions. Every tightening of conditions feeds back into equities. The market stops behaving like a calm pricing mechanism and starts behaving like a stress test.”

Meanwhile, panic is starting to seep into Wall Street, with technical indicators showing strain on the market, raising new fears of inflation – and potentially a recession.

Read more: The financial sector is sending some spooky technical signals about the stock market

“The economic outlook is increasingly shrouded in the fog of war,” Bob Schwartz, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a Friday note to clients. Skyrocketing gas prices are “delivering an immediate hit to household budgets – particularly for lower-income families that devote a larger share of their spending to energy.”

See: Individual investors are chasing oil’s surge amid Iran conflict; institutions are thinking about what comes next

U.S. gas prices Sunday averaged $3.699 a gallon, according to AAA, about 77 cents higher than a month ago.

Still, most traders seem to be pricing in only a short-term spike in fuel prices, expecting a relatively quick conflict.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the surge in gas prices is likely to last “a few more weeks,” calling the current situation “a short-term disruption to the flow of energy.”

“Depending upon the timing and the manner in which this conflict comes to an end, we’re going to see some elevated pricing until we get there,” Wright said, as he dismissed Iranian threats that a drawn-out conflict will send the price of oil above $200 a barrel. ” I would pay no attention to what Iran says,” he added.

The effects of rising oil and gas prices on transportation and retail spending are expected to be revealed in corporate earnings outlooks this week, as companies including FedEx (FDX), Macy’s (M) and Lululemon (LULU) report quarterly earnings.

Investors will also be closely watching this week’s meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady Wednesday, any indications of future moves – perhaps even a hike – will be front of mind.

Read more: It was unthinkable a couple of weeks ago, but could the next move by the Fed be a rate hike?

-Mike Murphy

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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We often talk about platforms, tools or accommodations when we discuss accessibility in teaching. Yet students’ difficulties often begin much earlier, particularly in digital and blended learning contexts. The crucial moment comes when they encounter a task and decide whether they can, should – or even want to – engage with it. 

Task instructions can be procedural and technical – students are told where to click, what to submit and when it is due. But it’s not explained to them why the task matters, how to approach or engage with it or what support is available if they struggle. This creates an immediate barrier to students’ engagement, motivation and persistence.

In technology-enhanced environments, accessible teaching starts with how learning tasks are framed.

A motivation-informed view of accessibility

Learners engage more deeply when teaching supports three basic needs: feeling a sense of choice (autonomy), competence and connection. When these needs are supported, students are more willing to put in effort, persist through difficulty and reflect on their learning.

In digital learning contexts, these needs are harder to meet because interaction is often asynchronous and students work more independently. So, language used in task instructions is especially powerful. 

Our work has shown that brief need-supportive statements embedded directly into online learning task instructions can lead to students feeling more motivated and more willing to actively monitor and assess their own work. Importantly, these effects did not depend on complex technologies or additional teaching time but on small, intentional changes in wording.

What do need-supportive instructions look like?

Need-supportive instructions go beyond telling students what to do. In practice, they tend to do three things at once. 

First, they clarify purpose by briefly explaining why a task matters or how it connects to future learning, helping students see the task as more than a compliance exercise. 

Second, they support competence by acknowledging that parts of the task might be challenging, emphasising effort and strategy use, and offering simple guidance on how students might begin or recover if they get stuck. 

Third, they signal support and connection by using invitational language, encouraging questions or reflection, and making teacher presence visible even in asynchronous environments.

These elements can be embedded directly into written task descriptions, short introductory videos or announcements within a learning management system.

Why this matters for accessibility

From an accessibility perspective, need-supportive instructions reduce several hidden barriers to learning: 

(1) they lower cognitive barriers by reducing the effort students must spend interpreting expectations, freeing up attention for learning itself

(2) they reduce motivational barriers by making students more willing to start and persist, even when tasks feel demanding; and 

(3) they ease emotional barriers by framing difficulty as a normal part of learning rather than as evidence of inability.

This is particularly important for students who are neurodivergent, studying in a second language or balancing learning with work or caregiving responsibilities. At the same time, these practices also benefit high-achieving students, who might otherwise disengage from challenging tasks because of fear of failure.

Amplify supportive teaching with tech

Intentionally use technology to strengthen need-supportive teaching. For example, incorporate short reflective prompts in online tasks that encourage students to pause and check their understanding. Frame automated feedback as information for improvement rather than judgement. Recorded instructions can model how to approach a task strategically rather than simply explaining submission requirements. 

In these cases, technology does not replace good teaching; it amplifies it by making instructional choices more visible and more consequential.

Accessibility without lowering standards

A common concern is that making teaching more accessible could dilute academic rigour. But evidence suggests the opposite. When students feel supported in understanding expectations and navigating difficulty, they are more likely to engage in effortful learning behaviours such as revising work, reflecting on feedback and persisting with complex tasks. By implementing need-supportive instructions, we’re not making tasks easier but effort more productive.

Small changes, sustainable impact

One of the strengths of need-supportive instruction is its sustainability. It does not require new platforms, additional class time or major curriculum redesign. Instead, it relies on small, deliberate choices in how tasks are introduced. For teachers and educators aiming to make their teaching more accessible, a useful starting question is simple: “Do my task instructions help students understand why this learning task matters, how they can approach it and what they can do when they face difficulty?”

In this sense, accessibility can be built one task at a time.

Norman B. Mendoza is assistant professor in the Department of Curriculum and Instruction at the Education University of Hong Kong.

If you’d like advice and insight from academics and university staff delivered direct to your inbox each week, sign up for the Campus newsletter.

Existing cleanroom retrofit to begin in March with plans to begin construction of a similar-sized second cleanroom at this site by the end of fiscal 2026

BOISE, Idaho, March 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU) today announced it has completed the acquisition and assumed ownership of Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation’s (PSMC) P5 site in Tongluo, Miaoli County, Taiwan, under the acquisition agreement previously announced on January 17, 2026.

The new site will complement Micron’s existing operations in Taiwan as an extension of the company’s vertically integrated mega campus in Taichung, located approximately 15 miles away. The site includes approximately 300,000 square feet of existing 300mm cleanroom space and will support Micron’s efforts to expand supply of leading-edge DRAM products, including HBM, to meet growing AI-driven demand.

Micron began preparations for the new Tongluo site following the deal announcement in January 2026 and will begin retrofitting the existing cleanroom now that the transaction has been completed. The new Tongluo site is expected to support meaningful product shipments from the existing fab beginning in fiscal 2028. The company is also planning the next phase of expansion at the site, with construction set to begin by the end of fiscal 2026 on a second facility of comparable scale, adding approximately 270,000 square feet of cleanroom space.

“The Tongluo facility complements our Taiwan operations and is a critical component of our global expansion plans,” said Manish Bhatia, executive vice president of global operations at Micron Technology. “Memory is a strategic asset that dictates AI product performance, and the acquisition and phased ramp of this site strengthens our ability to capitalize on these significant opportunities. We appreciate the strong collaboration from the Taiwan government, our construction partners, and equipment and materials suppliers to enable and accelerate the ramp of our production capacity at this site.”

Micron thanks PSMC, the Taiwan central government, including the Ministry of Economic Affairs, National Science and Technology Council, and Hsinchu Science Park, as well as Miaoli County Government, for their strong support, collaboration to ensure a swift and successful acquisition process, and commitment in enabling the new site, leveraging the efficiency and speed of execution fueled by the world-class semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in Taiwan.

About Micron Technology, Inc. 

Micron Technology, Inc. is an industry leader in innovative memory and storage solutions transforming how the world uses information to enrich life for all. With a relentless focus on our customers, technology leadership, and manufacturing and operational excellence, Micron delivers a rich portfolio of high-performance DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage products. Every day, the innovations that our people create fuel the data economy, enabling advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and compute-intensive applications that unleash opportunities — from the data center to the intelligent edge and across the client and mobile user experience. To learn more about Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU), visit micron.com. 

Forward-Looking Statements 

This press release contains forward-looking statements, including expectations as to when meaningful product shipments will begin at the Tonglou site, the timing of future construction plans for the Tonglou site, and the ability of Micron’s global expansion plans to address product demand growth. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the documents Micron files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically its most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. These certain factors can be found at https://investors.micron.com/risk-factor. Although Micron believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, Micron cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, or achievements. Micron is under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this press release to conform these statements to actual results. 

© 2026 Micron Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. Information, products, and/or specifications are subject to change without notice. Micron, the Micron logo, and all other Micron trademarks are the property of Micron Technology, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.  

Micron Media Relations Contact   
Mark Plungy
+1 (408) 203-2910
corpcomms@micron.com  

Micron Investor Relations Contact  
Satya Kumar  
+1 (408) 450-6199  
satyakumar@micron.com  
  

U.S. crude oil hit $100 per barrel Sunday, continuing its surge as the American-Israeli war with Iran shows no signs of ending soon, and despite attempts by the Trump administration and allied countries to slow rising prices.

As oil futures trading resumed trading at 6 p.m. ET, U.S. crude oil jumped more than 2% to around $102 per barrel. The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, also jumped to $106 per barrel.

On Wednesday, the 32 countries that make up the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release a collective 400 million barrels of oil in the largest ever emergency release.

Lawmakers, investors and consumers alike had all hoped the move would cut prices and reassure the markets. Oil prices momentarily fell below $80 a barrel after the announcement, before resuming its steady march higher.

Since the war started, U.S. oil prices have risen nearly 50%. So far this year, the cost of U.S. crude has risen nearly 75%.

Retail gas prices have soared, too. On Sunday, the national average price per gallon of unleaded gas was around $3.70, up about 70 cents since the U.S. and Israel launched wide-scale strikes on targets in Iran.

Retaliatory Iranian attacks across the region on ships, infrastructure and ports through which oil tankers transit have only deepened fears that the war with Iran will become a protracted regional conflict.

In the meantime, the critical Strait of Hormuz — through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply must pass in order to reach global markets — will remain closed for the foreseeable future.

On Friday, the U.S. intensified its military pressure on Iran, striking Kharg Island, a crucial outpost in the Persian Gulf from which Iran exports around 90% of its oil.

Trump said the strikes did not impact the island’s oil infrastructure. On Saturday, Trump told NBC News in a phone interview, “We may hit [Kharg Island] a few more times, just for fun.”

The president also told NBC News he was not yet ready to negotiate a cease-fire with Iran.

Trump also said in the interview that he was asking “numerous countries that are affected by the thuggery of Iran” to help secure the strait.

The White House has been dangling the prospect of naval escorts to protect oil tankers for more than a week, without providing any details yet.

“We have never had the most important waterway for energy effectively closed,” RBC Capital Markets’ chief commodities strategist Helima Croft, told NBC News last week.

“The only way this crisis abates is if there is some way that we can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give confidence to shipping companies that their tankers will not be attacked,” Croft said.

On NBC’s “Meet the Press” earlier on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that it could still be a number of weeks before military escorts are possible.

Wright was also asked in the interview if the Strait of Hormuz is safe for ships right now. “No, no, it is not,” he said said. Making it safe for ships to pass is “one of the objectives at the end of this conflict,” he said.

Until the war with Iran ends, said Wright, “We’re going to see some elevated pricing.”

Some analysts say the $100 mark, which WTI crossed on Sunday evening, could be oil’s first stop on the road to even higher prices.

“The psychological level of $100 oil may just be a short-term price target on its way to higher levels as the conflict drags on, oil production is throttled back as oil storage fills up because tankers are unable to load,” longtime industry expert Andy Lipow said last week.

The threat to Asia had been obvious for years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that, in 2024, over 80% of the crude and LNG that transited Hormuz went to Asian markets. China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounted for nearly 70% of all Hormuz crude flows. Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only send about 2.6 million barrels of crude oil a day through bypass pipelines, not enough to offset the 20 million barrels per day now stuck. It’s even worse for LNG: There’s no way to get it out if Hormuz is closed.  

If Asian countries want a solution to their energy woes in the Middle East, perhaps they should look, well, to the east—across the Pacific to energy sources in North America, and Canada in particular.

Canada’s new Pacific energy infrastructure, from the Shell‑led LNG Canada project in Kitimat to the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline feeding crude to tankers near Vancouver, offers Asian buyers a faster, cheaper and geopolitically safer route that can skip Hormuz and other chokepoints like Malacca and the South China Sea, altogether.

A different map already exists

There’s no technological fix for geography, as author Robert D. Kaplan argued in his 2012 book, The Revenge of Geography. The only solution is a different map—and for Asia’s energy buyers, that different map is on Canada’s Pacific coast.

LNG Canada in Kitimat, British Columbia, shipped its first cargo in June 2025, making Canada an LNG‑exporting nation for the first time. Cargoes load directly into the North Pacific and reach Northeast Asian terminals without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, or the South China Sea, all potential chokepoints for energy trade.

Canadian crude from Alberta now moves west through the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came online in May 2024 and has nearly tripled maximum capacity to 890,000 barrels per day. Since startup, shipments from the Westridge Marine Terminal near Vancouver have helped triple Canadian crude exports to non‑US destinations, with Asia—particularly China—emerging as a key buyer.

The Alberta‑to‑Asia route does not rely on Hormuz or Malacca, and it originates in a jurisdiction perceived as politically stable. Importantly, Canada is low-risk and—one hopes—unlikely to be beset by conflict any time soon.

Why not the United States?

The U.S., the world’s largest LNG exporter, can’t help gas-hungry Asian buyers. The reason, again, is geography. The U.S.’s LNG export terminals are on the Gulf Coast or the East Coast; none are on the Pacific Coast. It can take up to 24 days to get an LNG tanker from the Gulf Coast, through the Panama Canal, and to Japan. Shipping from Kitimat in Canada takes just 11 days.

Canadian LNG from Kitimat takes roughly 10 to 11 days, at a delivered cost of under $1/MMBtu versus $2/MMBtu or more via Panama, according to energy research firm RBN Energy. Canada’s route is shorter, cheaper and avoids congestion in the Canal.

Washington is building the Alaska LNG project, an 800-mile pipeline from North Slope gas fields to a liquefaction terminal at Nikiski on Cook Inlet. It’s got support from the Trump administration, federal permits, and letters of intent from JERA and POSCO. But Alaska LNG still lacks binding long-term contracts, and some estimates put the cost at more than $70 billion. Even if construction begins as planned in late 2026, the first LNG exports won’t be ready until 2031 at the earliest—and that assumes everything goes right.

In contrast, LNG Canada Phase 1 is operational, and ready to serve Asian buyers, today.

The window is this year

The next tranche of Canadian LNG is about to come online. LNG Canada Phase 12 will provide a further 14 million tonnes per annum through a JV that includes Shell, Mitsubishi, Korea Gas Corporation, Petronas, and PetroChina; a final investment decision is expected by late 2026 or early 2027. Ksi Lisims LNG, near Prince Rupert, has cleared all regulatory approvals. If both proceed, Canada’s total Pacific LNG export capacity will exceed 40 million tonnes per annum by the early 2030s.

Asian utilities and importers—from JERA and INPEX to CNOOC, GAIL, CPC Taiwan and Singapore’s EMA—that lock in 20‑ to 40‑year contracts will have structural insurance against the next Hormuz‑related supply shock that will look extraordinarily cheap in hindsight.

And they’d find a willing partner in Ottawa, which is actively encouraging Asian participation as part of a broader effort to diversify energy exports away from an over‑reliance on the U.S. market.

The tankers anchored outside Hormuz and the burning facilities at Ras Laffan are a live demonstration of what happens when energy security relies on a 33-kilometer wide passage flanked by a hostile power.

Asia’s energy buyers need to find an alternative—and fortunately, they have one in Canada.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

By Tomi Kilgore

It’s hard to look at charts of the SPDR financial sector ETF and not see them as bearish – broken trendlines, a death cross and a relative-strength plunge

Broken trendlines and a looming “death cross” pattern bode badly for the financial sector, and therefore the rest of the stock market.

A number of charts suggest the financial sector is suffering through a bearish technical breakdown, and that could send a chilling signal for the rest of the stock market.

The State Street Financial Select Sector ETF’s XLF chart has been flashing yellow-light signals for the past several weeks. Even though the ETF bounced a bit on Friday to snap a six-day losing streak – the longest in two years – a technical blinking red light will likely still flash on Monday, in the form of an ominous “death cross” pattern.

The current selloff hasn’t reached the bear-market threshold like it did when inflation started spiking in early 2022, and still hasn’t fallen as deep as the “liberation day” tariffs correction suffered last April. But how much the sector has underperformed relative to the broader stock market, amid growing concerns over stability of the private-credit market and surging crude oil prices (CL.1), suggests the sector’s weakness continues to broaden, and the worst appears yet to come.

It’s uncertain how much exposure banks have to the private-credit problems, or how widespread those problems are, but Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said there are now “legitimate stresses” in the financial sector.

“Since banking is a confidence business and contagion risk always exists, the space is an ‘avoid’ until the correction is larger, bodies wash up, or the dust starts to clear,” O’Rourke wrote in a note to clients. “Of those three paths, we believe the larger correction is the most likely in the near term.”

The XLF rose 0.1% on Friday, after shedding 5.2% over the previous six sessions to close Thursday at a 10-month low. It has dropped 13.3% since closing at a record $56.40 on Jan. 6.

What does a down-trending financial sector mean for the broader stock market?

Of the S&P 500 index’s SPX 11 sectors, financials are the second most-heavily weighted at 12.5% as of the last rebalancing at the end of February, behind information technology at 32.4%.

Over the past three years, the correlation coefficient between the XLF and the S&P 500 is 0.97, in which a correlation of 1.00 means they move exactly in unison. But to start 2026, that correlation has dipped to 0.74, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data. The XLF has fallen 10.7% this year through Friday to be the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, while the S&P 500 has lost 3.1%.

CappThesis technical analyst Frank Cappelleri said his view is that the financial sector has already “rolled over.” And given how much influence it has on the market, “seeing this sector completely roll over would be difficult for the broader market to absorb,” Cappelleri wrote in a recent note.

Yellow lights flash

The first yellow light to flash was in early February, when the XLF broke below a short-term uptrend line that had defined the rally off the “liberation day” lows of April 2025.

The next warning sign flashed after the previous technical support at the November 2025 low, as well as at rising longer-term trendline that started off the October 2023 low – they were both at around the same level – definitively gave way after the Iran conflict started.

There’s also the matter of the three tops marked in the chart above by the red lines. The key is the third top, as the XLF had seemed to find support at the first trendline, but failed to resume the rally to a new high before support gave way. That lower high, coupled with the fresh low hit last week, extends the pattern of lower peaks and lower troughs that many chart watchers say defines a downtrend.

With the break below previous support, Cappelleri said he believes the next downside target for the XLF is $45.50.

Keep in mind that a 20% decline from the Jan. 6 record close of $56.40 would put the XLF at $45.12. Many on Wall Street believe a decline of 20% or more from a significant bull-market peak is what defines a bear market.

‘Death cross’ is coming

The point in which many chart watchers believe a “roll over” or breakdown technically graduates to a longer-term downtrend is when the 50-day moving average, a widely followed short-term trend tracker, crosses below the 200-day moving, which is viewed as a divider between long-term uptrends and downtrend.

Based on the current trajectories of those moving averages for the XLF, the crossover will occur on Monday.

The last time the 50-DMA was below the 200-DMA was Nov. 30, 2023, as the XLF was breaking above a nearly two-year long downtrend triggered first in 2022 by rapid Federal Reserve rate increases to fight off a historic surge in inflation, then in 2023 by worries of a banking crisis after a number of regional bank failures.

Death crosses are more acknowledgments that the trend has extended long enough and/or fallen far enough to be taken seriously, and aren’t necessarily meant to be good market-timing signals. But the last time a death cross occurred after the 50-DMA had been above the 200-DMA for more than a year was April 14, 2022. It fell another 18% before bottoming six months later.

BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky noted that the outlook can look even worse as the 200-DMA turns lower. For the XLF, the 200-DMA has been has been declining since March 5; the last time it has had sustained declines longer than that was during the second half of 2023.

Relatively speaking

One way to get a clear view of how a charted instrument is performing versus another is through a relative strength chart.

It’s no secret that financials have been having a rough time this year. But the underperformance has gone on a lot longer than that, and reached depths not seen since COVID.

Financials are often viewed as a guide to business and economic cycles, as they perform best when liquidity is plentiful and businesses feel good enough to borrow money to grow. State Street Investment Management said in a recent business cycle analysis, that during economic expansion, “financials’ outperformance is quite consistent, as they beat the market in 11 out of 13 expansion phases.”

That would also mean the opposite is true. The last time the XLF was at current levels on a relative strength chart with the S&P 500 was in late 2020, as the current economic expansion was just getting started after the COVID-induced recession had ended.

Basically, there’s reason to worry that a recession may not be far off.

Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said the financials’ weakness is reflecting not only concerns about exposure to private credit, but also worries that rising oil prices could slow the U.S. economy. Historically, a doubling in oil prices within a year often leads to a recession, she told MarketWatch.

“That hasn’t happened yet, but we’re getting closer,” Rabe said.

-Tomi Kilgore

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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