Category: 3. Business

  • RBA holds official interest rate at 3.6% after surprise inflation jump | Reserve Bank of Australia

    RBA holds official interest rate at 3.6% after surprise inflation jump | Reserve Bank of Australia

    The Reserve Bank has left the official interest rate on hold after a surprise jump in inflation, in a widely expected decision.

    The RBA’s monetary policy board on Tuesday kept the cash rate at 3.6%, where it has sat since August. Economists and banks overwhelmingly expected no change.

    The central bank has cut interest rates three times in 2025, easing pressure on mortgage holders and fuelling rapid house price rises.

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    Core inflation rose to 3% – the top of the RBA’s preferred range – in September, the first acceleration of the underlying measure since 2022.

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    The headline rate rose to 3.2%, including volatile categories such as electricity costs, which rose 9% in the quarter as government energy rebates ended.

    The surprise bump in inflation dashed hopes that lower interest rates would be delivered to support the jobs market. Data in late September revealed a surprise increase in unemployment to 4.5%.

    Financial markets over the last week have cut back their bets on another interest rate cut being handed down in the next 12 months. Major banks do not expect another cut until next year.

    The RBA governor, Michele Bullock, was scheduled to address media on Tuesday afternoon to explain the board’s thinking.

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  • Shein bans all sex dolls after outrage over childlike products

    Shein bans all sex dolls after outrage over childlike products

    Osmond ChiaBusiness reporter

    Getty Images A man holds up a poster with an image of a child-like sex doll with a caption in French criticising e-commerce giant Shein for selling the toys. The caption translates in English to "sex dolls shaped like little girls sold on Shein."Getty Images

    A protester at a department store in Paris where Shein plans to open its first permanent outlet

    Online retail giant Shein says it has banned the sale of all sex dolls on its platform around the world, after being accused of displaying products with “a childlike appearance” on its website.

    The French consumer watchdog first raised concerns at the weekend over the description and categorisation of the dolls, saying it left “little doubt as to the child pornography nature of the content.”

    The company said on Monday that it has permanently banned “all seller accounts linked to illegal or non-compliant sex-doll products” and will tighten controls across its global platform.

    Shein also says it has temporarily removed its adult products category as a precaution.

    Every listing and image related to the sex dolls has been removed from Shein’s platform, the firm said.

    The retailer added that it will conduct a thorough review, with plans to set stricter controls on sellers.

    “The company has also strengthened its keyword blacklist to further prevent attempted circumvention of product listing restrictions by sellers,” said Shein.

    The firm’s executive chairman Donald Tang said: “The fight against child exploitation is non-negotiable for Shein. These were marketplace listings from third-party sellers – but I take this personally.”

    “We are tracing the source and will take swift, decisive action against those responsible.”

    France’s Directorate General for Competition, Consumer Affairs and Fraud Control initially raised concerns about the listings on Saturday.

    In response, Shein said it had removed the listings for childlike sex dolls as soon as it became aware of the issue and began an investigation over how the products were able to be offered for sales on its platform.

    France’s finance minister threatened to ban the Singapore-based retailer from the country if it continued to sell the “child-like” dolls – days before the company was due to open its first permanent outlet in Paris.

    People were seen protesting outside the BHV department store opposite Paris’s city hall, where the Shein outlet is set to open this week.

    The brand has previously come under scrutiny over the environmental impact of fast-fashion and the working conditions of the people who make the products sold on the platform.

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  • US Stock Futures Drop After Palantir, Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap

    US Stock Futures Drop After Palantir, Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — US stock futures extended losses along with Asian shares as Palantir Technologies Inc.’s earnings and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook weighed on sentiment.

    Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. The underlying index posted a modest gain Monday even as more than 300 of its members retreated. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%, with Palantir declining more than 4% in extended trading on concerns about the company’s lofty valuation after a record run-up. Asian shares dropped 0.4% as the South Korean benchmark lost more than 2%.

    A gauge of the dollar extended its gains to a fifth day after the greenback strengthened against all other Group-of-10 currencies, trading at levels last seen in August. The advance has come amid mixed signals from Fed officials, following Chair Jerome Powell’s warning last week that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion.

    A flurry of central bank officials offered contrasting views on the outlook for further rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee saying he’s more concerned about inflation than the job market. Even as US factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in October, global stocks hovered near record highs, driven by technology heavyweights and stoking calls for broader-market consolidation.

    “It’s the Fed again,” said Anna Wu, a cross-asset strategist at Van Eck. “The inflation comment startled the markets and weighed on sentiment.”

    Economists and policymakers are relying more on private reports such as the ISM survey for clues on the economy and job market in the absence of official data because of the US government shutdown. Friday’s scheduled employment report is also poised to be delayed as a result.

    The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased 0.4 point to 48.7, according to data released Monday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the measure has been stuck in a narrow range for most of this year.

    “With US data softening and Fed officials keeping policy optionality alive, investors are reassessing positioning rather than chasing risk,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management.

    Gold edged lower for a third consecutive session. Treasuries steadied, while oil fell as the market weighed OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes.

    Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she sees the risk of further labor-market weakness as greater than the chance that inflation will pick up. She stopped short of endorsing another interest-rate cut next month.

    “Looking ahead, policy is not on a predetermined path,” Cook said. “We are at a moment when risks to both sides of the dual mandate are elevated. Every meeting, including December’s, is a live meeting.”

    Her comments echoed remarks from her colleagues who were equally noncommittal about whether the central bank should deliver a third straight rate reduction when policymakers convene in December.

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said officials should “keep an open mind” about the possibility of a December cut. Governor Stephen Miran noted policy remains restrictive.

    Elsewhere, shares in Australia fell ahead of a central bank rate decision later Tuesday, when policymakers are expected to stand pat.

    Back to Palantir, the company raised its annual revenue outlook to $4.4 billion and outpaced analyst estimates for third-quarter sales.

    Investors have sent the firm’s shares up more than 150% so far this year, closing Monday at a record $207.18. The company had a price-to-sales ratio of 85 as of Friday — the highest in the S&P 500 Index.

    Mandeep Singh, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that investors likely wanted more guidance about the following year.

    Palantir gave a forecast for the current quarter, Singh said, but “I think everyone wanted some sense of 2026.”

    Corporate Highlights:

    Starbucks Corp. is selling a majority stake in its China unit to private equity firm Boyu Capital for $4 billion to help accelerate its coffeehouse business in the country. Grab Holdings Ltd. raised its earnings forecast for the year after quarterly profit topped estimates, signaling robust demand for the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery firm’s new products. Netflix Inc. is in talks to license video podcasts distributed by iHeartMedia Inc. as it looks to compete head on with YouTube, according to people familiar with the conversations.

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 12:01 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 0.4% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.9% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.2% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2% Currencies

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1513 The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.10 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1271 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

    Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $106,566.26 Ether rose 1% to $3,638.41 Bonds

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.10% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.675% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.35% Commodities

    West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $60.87 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,988.85 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi and Winnie Hsu.

    ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Dollar at 3-month high as traders pare near-term rate cut wagers

    Dollar at 3-month high as traders pare near-term rate cut wagers

    The dollar was steady on Tuesday, hovering near a three-month high as a divided Federal Reserve spurred traders to rein in interest rate cut wagers.

    Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty Images

    The dollar was steady on Tuesday, hovering near a three-month high as a divided Federal Reserve spurred traders to rein in interest rate cut wagers while investors awaited an Australian policy meeting where the central bank is likely to stand pat.

    The yen was softer at 154.38 per U.S. dollar in early Asian hours, just shy of the eight-and-a-half-month low it touched last week, leading to some jawboning from Tokyo and stoking intervention jitters.

    Fed officials continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it in the absence of economic data suspended due to the federal government shutdown.

    The Fed cut rates last week but Chair Jerome Powell suggested that might be the last cut of the year. Traders are now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, compared with 94% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed.

    That shift in near-term expectations has boosted the dollar. The euro eased 0.11% to $1.1506, near a three-month low, while sterling last fetched $1.312, down 0.13%.

    The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was 0.1% higher at 99.99, at a three-month high.

    Data Gap leaves investors in the Dark

    With government economic data missing due to the second-longest U.S. shutdown, investors this week are eyeing non-government sources of economic data, including ADP employment data, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

    On Monday, accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey painted a dire picture of the factory sector, showing U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued.

    “There is no end in sight to the shutdown and the longer this drags on the bigger the economic implication will be,” MUFG strategists said in a note.

    “Powell likely wants to avoid appearing as though markets are forcing the Fed to cut. We still argue that the labor market warrants more rate cuts, but the risk is the Fed skips meetings ahead.”

    Powell’s hawkish pivot has come at the wrong time for the yen as the Bank of Japan held rates steady last week. While Governor Kazuo Ueda last week sent the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December, markets remained underwhelmed by the central bank’s gradual approach.

    The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency.

    “Right now, it seems as though the yen is very weak on almost any metric,” said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics.

    “Investors are also still pricing in some chance of a hike at the next meeting. So, unless the BOJ do tighten policy before the end of the year, and they probably won’t, the most likely path for the yen is even weaker in the near term.”

    Spotlight on RBA

    The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6535 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The Aussie is up nearly 6% this year.

    The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady after a surprisingly hot reading on third-quarter inflation showed building and services costs were not slowing as hoped.

    The stronger-than-expected inflation reading has effectively shut the door on any near-term rate cuts and cast doubt on how quickly the RBA can start easing. Markets have sharply scaled back expectations, now pricing in only one cut by mid-2026.

    Kristina Clifton, a senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, expects the RBA to pivot to a more hawkish tone after last week’s stronger inflation data.

    “Hawkish commentary from the RBA and/or an upward revision to the inflation forecast will cause markets to unwind some rate cut pricing. An unwind of rate cut pricing will support AUD/USD.”

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  • Indian renewable energy firm SAEL Industries files for $521 million IPO

    Indian renewable energy firm SAEL Industries files for $521 million IPO

    Nov 4 (Reuters) – Renewable energy firm SAEL Industries has filed draft documents late Monday for a stock market listing valued at 45.75 billion rupees ($520.51 million).

    The solar and biomass operator said its initial public offering (IPO) will comprise a fresh issue of shares worth up to 37.5 billion rupees and an offer for sale of shares totalling 8.25 billion rupees by Norwegian state-owned fund Norfund, one of its major shareholders.

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    Proceeds from the IPO will be utilised to invest in the company’s units, SAEL Solar P5 and SAEL Solar P4, and to repay or prepay certain outstanding borrowings, including accrued interest and applicable prepayment penalties.

    SAEL Industries, India’s largest agri waste-to-energy producer by operational capacity, competes with Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS), opens new tab, ACME Solar Holdings (ACMO.NS), opens new tab, and NTPC Green Energy (NTPG.NS), opens new tab. The company, however, remains the smallest among its listed peers by revenue for the financial year ended March 2025.

    The company’s total contracted and awarded capacity of its renewable energy projects, as of September 30, stood at 5,765.70 megawatts, comprising 5,600.80 MW solar and 164.90 MW of agri waste-to-energy capacities across 10 Indian states and 1 union territory.

    Kotak Mahindra Capital, JM Financial, Ambit and ICICI Securities are among the lead book-running managers for the IPO.

    Last month, Norfund invested $20 million in the company, taking its total investment to $130 million.

    The Norwegian fund made the investment through compulsorily convertible preference shares, which will convert into equity once Sael lists on Indian exchanges. The funds will be deployed in clean energy projects the company has secured through competitive bidding.

    ($1 = 87.8950 Indian rupees)

    Reporting by Yagnoseni Das in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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  • Halliburton launches LOGIX™ unit vitality to advance cementing operations

    Halliburton launches LOGIX™ unit vitality to advance cementing operations

    HOUSTON November 04, 2025 — Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) released LOGIX™ unit vitality, in addition to the LOGIX™ automation and remote operations family of solutions. The system monitors cementing equipment in real-time, prepares for upcoming jobs, and provides direct insight into equipment operation and performance.

    LOGIX™ unit vitality delivers unprecedented visibility into equipment health and operator performance. Artificial intelligence (AI) and real-time data transform equipment maintenance from reactive to predictive to help customers gain greater insight into their operations and reduce non-productive time.

    Daniel Casale, vice president, Cementing, Halliburton

    The system connects critical cement unit components to intelligent controllers and monitors more than 400 real-time parameters to ensure optimal performance. Data flows into a secure cloud, where machine learning models immediately process and analyze it to deliver constant insight into equipment health, operational readiness, operator performance, and preventive maintenance recommendations.

    LOGIX™ unit vitality combines the power of AI with human expertise to operate smarter, respond faster, and execute with confidence. This system supports Halliburton’s land-based Elite™ and the new Elite Prime™ cement units. Offshore equipment deployment will begin in 2026.

    At Halliburton, digital is foundational to how we operate, how we solve problems, and how we maximize value for our customers. The LOGIX™ automation and remote operations family of solutions includes analytics and visualization services that deliver reliability, consistency, and efficiency. This enables smarter decisions, improved performance, safer operations, and lower total cost of ownership.

    About Halliburton

    Halliburton is one of the world’s leading providers of products and services to the energy industry. Founded in 1919, we create innovative technologies, products, and services that help our customers maximize their value throughout the life cycle of an asset and advance a sustainable energy future. Connect with us on LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook.

    Press Contact:
    Alexandra Franceschi
    PR@halliburton.com
    281-608-8839

    Investor Relations Contact:
    David Coleman
    investors@halliburton.com
    281-871-2688


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  • Asian Stocks Fall After Weak US Data, Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap

    Asian Stocks Fall After Weak US Data, Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Asian equities edged lower along with equity-index futures after weaker US economic data and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook weighed on sentiment.

    A gauge of the region’s shares fell 0.2%, diverging from gains in tech stocks in the US. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.3% after the underlying index posted a modest gain Monday, although more than 300 members in the index actually retreated. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% with Palantir Technologies Inc. falling more than 4% in extended trading on concerns about the company’s lofty valuation after a record run-up.

    A gauge of the dollar extended its gains to a fifth day, strengthening against all other Group-of-10 currencies and trading at levels last seen in August. The greenback’s advance has come amid mixed signals from Fed officials, following Chair Jerome Powell’s warning last week that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion.

    US factory activity shrank in October for an eighth straight month, reflecting softer production and demand, and Fed officials gave mixed signals on the path ahead for interest-rate cuts. Even so, global stocks have rallied for seven straight months since the tariff-fueled selloff in April, driven increasingly by technology heavyweights and prompting calls for broader-market consolidation.

    “Asia’s taking a breather after a strong run,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. “With US data softening and Fed officials keeping policy optionality alive, investors are reassessing positioning rather than chasing risk.”

    Economists and policymakers are relying more on private reports such as the ISM survey for clues on the economy and job market in the absence of official data because of the US government shutdown. Friday’s scheduled employment report is also poised to be delayed as a result.

    The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased 0.4 point to 48.7, according to data released Monday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the measure has been stuck in a narrow range for most of this year.

    Gold edged lower for a third consecutive session. Treasuries steadied, while oil fell as the market weighed OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes.

    Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she sees the risk of further labor-market weakness as greater than the risk that inflation will pick up. She stopped short of endorsing another interest-rate cut next month.

    “Looking ahead, policy is not on a predetermined path,” Cook said. “We are at a moment when risks to both sides of the dual mandate are elevated. Every meeting, including December’s, is a live meeting.”

    Her comments echoed remarks from her colleagues who were equally noncommittal about whether the central bank should deliver a third straight rate reduction when policymakers convene in December.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned he’s more concerned about inflation than jobs. His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly said officials should “keep an open mind” about the possibility of a December cut. Governor Stephen Miran noted policy remains restrictive.

    Elsewhere, shares in Australia fell ahead of a central bank rate decision later Tuesday, when policymakers are expected to stand pat.

    “Concerns over high valuations persist, and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook appears murkier,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Despite the strong gains in equity markets this year, we continue to believe that this bull market has room to run.”

    Corporate Highlights:

    Palantir Technologies Inc. raised its annual revenue outlook to $4.4 billion and outpaced analyst estimates for third-quarter sales, citing “accelerating and otherworldly” growth for its artificial intelligence and data analytics products. Starbucks Corp. is selling a majority stake in its China unit to private equity firm Boyu Capital for $4 billion to help accelerate its coffeehouse business in the country. Grab Holdings Ltd. raised its earnings forecast for the year after quarterly profit topped estimates, signaling robust demand for the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery firm’s new products. Netflix Inc. is in talks to license video podcasts distributed by iHeartMedia Inc. as it looks to compete head on with YouTube, according to people familiar with the conversations.

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as of 10:41 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 0.5% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed Currencies

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1505 The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.35 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1275 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

    Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $107,129.93 Ether rose 1.2% to $3,644.23 Bonds

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 4.11% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.675% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.35% Commodities

    West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $60.94 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,986.57 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Winnie Hsu.

    ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Hijacking cellular machinery within cancer cells to promote antitumor immunity

    Hijacking cellular machinery within cancer cells to promote antitumor immunity

    Investigators from Mass General Brigham have developed a way to promote antitumor immunity by hijacking cellular machinery within cancer cells. The study demonstrated that inducing cancer cells to produce an immune-activating molecule led to reduced tumor growth in preclinical models. Results are published in PNAS.

    “Tumor cells comprise a significant proportion of the tumor microenvironment but are often under-utilized for immunotherapy,” said corresponding author Natalie Artzi, PhD, a researcher in the Mass General Brigham Department of Medicine. “These findings highlight how tumor cells can be used to actively contribute to their own elimination.”

    The presence of double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) in a cell’s cytoplasm activates innate immune sensors that set off defense mechanisms against potential infections or cellular damage. One such sensor known as cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) detects cytosolic dsDNA and produces cyclic GMP-AMP (cGAMP), which triggers the stimulator of interferon genes (STING) pathway and leads to inflammatory immune responses. Furthermore, cGAMP can be transported out of the cell to activate neighbouring cells. While cancer cells can have high levels of cytosolic dsDNA, they often silence the cGAS-STING pathway – preventing their own activation and of bystander immune cells within the tumor microenvironment.

    The research team exploited this innate mechanism within cancer cells to increase cGAMP production and thereby boost antitumor immunity. They found that cultured mouse melanoma cells upregulated cGAMP production when treated with dsDNA and lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) carrying mRNA coding for cGAS. Immune cells showed signs of activation in response to elevated extracellular cGAMP levels produced by cancer cells. Similarly, treatment with cGAS LNPs activated surrounding immune cells, slowed tumor growth and improved overall survival in mouse models of aggressive melanoma. Combining this treatment with immune checkpoint blockade therapy further improved outcomes.

    The authors suggest that this strategy could find future applications beyond cancer therapies, including in vaccines.

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  • Starbucks to Sell 60% of Its China Business to a Private Equity Firm – The New York Times

    1. Starbucks to Sell 60% of Its China Business to a Private Equity Firm  The New York Times
    2. Starbucks and Boyu Announce Joint Venture for the Next Chapter of Growth in China  Starbucks Coffee
    3. Factbox-Who’s selling? Starbucks and other US companies trimming China exposure By Reuters  Investing.com
    4. Starbucks Joins Long List Of US Firms Selling China Stakes  Finimize
    5. Starbucks cedes China control to Boyu Capital  Yahoo Finance

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  • Shutdown Nears Its End — But Economic Damage Is Mounting, Goldman Says

    Shutdown Nears Its End — But Economic Damage Is Mounting, Goldman Says

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    The U.S. government shutdown has dragged into its 33rd day, and while a resolution may soon be approaching, economists warn the economic fallout is already underway.

    In a note to clients on Monday, Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips said the standoff in Washington is likely to cost the U.S. economy more than a full percentage point of growth in the final quarter of 2025, shaving GDP growth to just 1.0%.

    That’s a significant downgrade. Goldman had previously expected a stronger finish to the year, but now believes the shutdown will result in postponed federal spending, delayed hiring, and reduced investment.

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    If current odds are any guide, the shutdown could stretch further still.

    Prediction markets tracked by CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi peg the median expected duration at 45.9 days, or until Nov. 15.

    As of now, there’s an implied 75% chance it lasts over 40 days, and a 35% chance it extends beyond 50.

    The standoff is shaping up to become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, surpassing the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019.

    Yet pressure is mounting. Missed pay for air traffic controllers and TSA screeners on Oct. 28, with another due Nov. 10, threatens a replay of the 2019 shutdown, when airport delays forced a last-minute compromise.

    Meanwhile, SNAP food benefits, normally issued the first week of each month, are at risk—though a recent court ruling may allow for partial disbursement using contingency funds.

    Unlike previous shutdowns that targeted specific agencies, this one involves a full lapse in congressional appropriations, making it broader in scope and impact.

    “This shutdown will have the greatest economic effect on record,” Goldman said in the note. “A longer duration could spill over into private-sector activity, delaying investments and stalling consumption.”

    See Also: The ‘ChatGPT of Marketing’ Just Opened a $0.81/Share Round — 10,000+ Investors Are Already In

    The immediate damage is expected to come from federal employee furloughs and delayed government purchases.

    If the shutdown runs six weeks, federal spending pushed into first-quarter 2026 could slightly boost growth by 1.3 percentage points in that quarter, according to Goldman’s models.

    Goldman Sachs sees growing signs the shutdown may soon end. The start of ACA enrollment on November 1 has intensified focus on health care subsidies, while the November 4 elections and the upcoming congressional recess could shift political incentives. Public-sector unions, including the AFGE, are now calling for a resolution, adding pressure on Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal.

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