Category: 2. World

Moscow has said it must be part of any international talks on Ukraine’s security, as Russia continues to stall on Donald Trump’s push for a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on Wednesday that Moscow must be included in any talks on Ukraine’s security guarantees, dismissing European diplomacy as “aggressive escalation” and a “clumsy effort to sway Trump”.

“To discuss security guarantees seriously without Russia is a road to nowhere,” Lavrov said during a working visit to Jordan.

Lavrov also said that China, Russia’s ally in the war, should be among Ukraine’s security guarantors – reviving a proposal first put forward by Russian negotiators during talks in Turkey in spring 2022.

European leaders have begun exploring post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine, following Trump’s pledge to help protect the country under any deal to end Russia’s war.

Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow would not accept the deployment of European forces to Ukraine, one of the key security guarantees under discussion.

Kyiv is likely to view with scepticism any prospect of China, a supporter of Russia during the war, acting as a security guarantor.

Lavrov, meanwhile, avoided any direct reference to a possible Putin-Zelenskyy summit, highlighting the Kremlin’s apparent plans to delay any concrete planning of a meeting.

Trump announced this week he had “begun the arrangements” for the first meeting between the two leaders since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Trump later claimed he had set up a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, explaining: “I thought I’d first let them meet.”

Opening direct talks with Zelenskyy would cut against the storyline Putin has cultivated since the 2022 invasion – portraying Ukraine’s president as an illegitimate figure and a mere puppet of the west.

Putin, who almost never refers to Zelenskyy by name and instead speaks of the “Kyiv regime”, has repeatedly cast doubt on whether his Ukrainian counterpart even holds the authority to sign a peace agreement. “You can negotiate with anyone, but because of his illegitimacy, he [Zelenskyy] has no right to sign anything,” Putin told Russian officials earlier this year.

But Trump’s promise of a meeting puts Putin in a difficult spot: rejecting it risks tension with the US president, while agreeing to one would elevate Zelenskyy to equal status and confront Putin with a media-savvy rival ready to meet almost without preconditions.

Moscow has shown scant sign of preparing for such an encounter.

Lavrov cautioned on Wednesday that any contact between the two leaders would need to be arranged “with the utmost care”, while other Russian officials dismissed Zelenskyy as a lightweight unworthy of serious attention.

But, as often is the case, Moscow has avoided closing the door entirely, hinting that the Putin–Zelenskyy encounter could take place, while giving no sign that it is actually on the horizon.

Several countries have offered to host a possible Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, including the Vatican, Switzerland and Hungary.

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The Russian leader reportedly suggested to Trump that his counterpart travel to Moscow for talks – an idea Russia knew Kyiv would reject because of the obvious risks to Zelenskyy’s safety.

Analysts suggested that the Russian leader would probably only meet Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s maximalist conditions, which would equal Ukraine’s capitulation.

“Putin will not meet Zelenskyy under the current circumstances,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “He has repeatedly stated that such a meeting would only be possible if there were well-prepared grounds, which in practice means Zelenskyy’s acceptance of Russia’s terms for ending the war.”

Figures close to the Kremlin have emphasised that Putin sees no need to rush into a meeting with Zelenskyy.

“Simply put, Putin only sees value in a meeting with Zelenskyy if it ends with a capitulation,” wrote the nationalist commentator Alexei Mukhin. “If Zelenskyy is unwilling to sign one, the Kremlin will keep ‘working on’ the idea of a meeting until he is,” Mukhin added.

Putin now faces a situation reminiscent of earlier moments when Trump pressed him to agree to a ceasefire. At the time, he managed to manoeuvre around the pressure, and analysts believe he is likely to take a similar approach now – downplaying the prospect of talks without rejecting them outright.

The key question is whether Trump will seek to put pressure on Kyiv to accept some of Russia’s demands to clear the way for a meeting between the two leaders.

Russia’s leadership on Wednesday showed no sign of compromise. Lavrov said the US was beginning to gain a clearer understanding of the “root causes” of the war – a phrase Putin has used to describe demands ranging from Ukraine’s formal renunciation of Nato membership to its “demilitarisation” and “denazification”, a vague formula that in practice would mean removing Zelenskyy.

The Russian foreign minister also pointed to the April 2022 talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as a model. Those failed negotiations centred on Moscow’s demands for Ukraine’s disarmament, political neutrality and the abandonment of its ambition to join Nato.

Meanwhile, Russian officials told Reuters that Moscow was preparing to raise taxes and cut spending to sustain high defence outlays and keep the war effort going.

TEHRAN: Iran said Wednesday it was prepared for any new Israeli attack, announcing it has developed missiles with greater capabilities than those used during their recent 12-day war.

“The missiles used in the 12-day war were manufactured… a few years ago,” Defence Minister Aziz Nassirzadeh said, quoted by the official IRNA news agency.

“Today, we have manufactured and possess missiles with far greater capabilities than previous missiles, and if the Zionist enemy embarks on the adventure again, we will undoubtedly use them.”

In mid-June, Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran, triggering a war in which Iran responded with missile and drone strikes.

The Israeli offensive killed senior military commanders, nuclear scientists and hundreds of others, striking both military sites and residential areas.

The United States briefly joined the war with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been in place since June 24.

Iranian officials have since warned that another round of fighting could erupt at any moment, emphasising that Tehran does not seek war but remains prepared for any confrontation.

On Monday, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said Iran should be “prepared at every moment for confrontation”.

“We are not even in a ceasefire; we are in a cessation of hostilities,” he added.

Iranian media reported that the army is to begin a two-day military exercise on Thursday, featuring a wide range of short and medium-range cruise missiles.

Western governments have repeatedly voiced concern about Iran’s missile programme, calling it a threat to regional security.

In July, France called for a “comprehensive deal” with Tehran that covers not only its nuclear programme but also its missile programme and its regional ambitions. Iran has insisted that its military capabilities are not up for negotiation.

ISLAMABAD: The Centre for Strategic Perspectives (CSP) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), Wednesday, hosted a public address on “ECO, Regionalism and the New Geopolitical Dynamics.”

The event brought together a wide range of participants including academics, think-tank experts, and practitioners. Ambassador Dr Asad Majeed Khan, secretary general of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), was the guest speaker.

In his welcome remarks, Director General ISSI Ambassador Sohail Mahmood noted that the current global environment was marked by turbulence and transformation in which major power competition was accentuating and globalisation and multilateralism were under severe stress.

Regionalism, however, was not as challenged, except for in regions like South Asia. If ECO could provide a successful model of regional cooperation then there could be a good demonstration effort for the South Asian region.

While intra-regional trade rose to USD 96.5 billion in 2022 from USD 76 billion in 2021, he remarked that it still accounts for only 9.1 per cent of the region’s total trade—signalling untapped opportunities. He also noted persistent challenges, including border conflicts, terrorism, sanctions, and regional disputes.

Sanctions on certain member states have further restricted economic prospects, while tensions between Pakistan and India pose a challenge to regional stability and wider regional connectivity.

The Israel-Iran conflict of 2025 has also disrupted critical trade and energy routes, underscoring the fragility of regional integration. Ambassador Sohail Mahmood expressed cautious optimism, noting that recent US-mediated efforts at reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia may open new trade and energy corridors in the South Caucasus.

In his wide-ranging public address, Ambassador Asad M Khan shared a comprehensive overview of ECO evolution and its institutional development. He also reflected on Pakistan’s enduring role as a founding member of ECO, tracing its origins from the RCD in 1964—Asia’s first regional development organisation—to its expansion in 1985 with the inclusion of Central Asian states, Azerbaijan, and Afghanistan.

He highlighted ECO’s natural basis for cooperation through shared cultural, religious, and economic ties and noted that its comprehensive institutional framework. Trade, he stressed, is central to ECO’s relevance, and efforts are underway to address challenges related to the ECO Trade Agreement (ECOTA) and the Visa Scheme.

Disparities in infrastructure, historic trade patterns, and geopolitical tensions exacerbated further challenges, but the Organisation is working actively to address them.

Ambassador Asad Majeed Khan warned that climate change is an existential threat, with floods, droughts, and water stress undermining development across ECO states, calling for greater cooperation in renewable energy, adaptation, and water management. Yet, he acknowledged progress in energy connectivity projects and tourism promotion, while underscoring the need for deeper private sector engagement beyond government-led efforts.

Reflecting on the 17th ECO Summit in Khankendi, he described it as a defining moment that renewed commitments to connectivity, trade facilitation, and sustainable development. With stronger political will, institutional reform, and regional solidarity, he expressed optimism that ECO could fulfill its founding vision and emerge as a meaningful platform for prosperity in the region.

Ambassador Inamul Haq highlighted ECO’s continued potential as a vehicle for regional integration, noting that its strength lies in fostering multilateral economic and developmental cooperation among member states. He emphasised the need to move beyond national-level approaches, particularly on pressing challenges like climate change, energy insecurity, and sustainable development, by adopting coordinated regional strategies.

Developing countries, he observed, can benefit greatly from enhanced South-South cooperation—pooling resources, sharing expertise, and jointly building resilience—rather than relying exclusively on external support for climate finance and technology transfer.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

Last week it was Putin. This week it’s all of Europe. Ever since Donald Trump’s sit-down with the Russian president in Alaska, that icy stage for the grandmaster spectacle, leaders across the Atlantic have been lining up at his door.

Suddenly the same capitals that questioned his authority to negotiate on their behalf are outdoing each other to pucker up and secure favour before the next big move.

And poor Zelenskyy, always a pawn in these games, must be wondering what happened. After all, it wasn’t too long ago that Washington played him as the gambit on the European chessboard. He was hailed as a symbol of resistance, showered with weapons, promised unyielding support.

Now it’s the same White House that’s implicitly endorsing a Russian carve-up of Ukrainian territory. That’s the trouble with proxy wars. When the players switch seats, the proxies lose their place on the board.

But while that game plays out in Europe, another one is unfolding closer to home. This time it is India in the hot seat. And here too, Trump is using the same tools of coercion and spectacle. Only the stick is different. Enter America’s infamous exorbitant privilege. Just when talk of dedollarisation was gathering pace and headlines questioned the future of dollar dominance, that same privilege has come roaring back — not as incentive but as punishment. The unique status of the dollar as the global reserve currency is once again being wielded to bend policy, shape alignments, and punish disobedience.

According to Peter Navarro, the former trade adviser now back in Trump’s inner circle, India’s $43 billion trade surplus with the United States comes with strings attached. It’s not enough for India to earn dollars. Washington now wants to decide how those dollars are spent. Buying cheap Russian crude and reselling refined petroleum to other regions, Navarro says, is deeply corrosive to the effort to isolate Putin’s war economy. If India wants to be treated as a strategic partner, it must first act like one.

This is classic Trump. Strategic ambiguity masking tactical muscle. Publicly he frames it as partnership. Privately the pressure is applied. And if loyalty isn’t guaranteed, outcome the tariffs. As things stand, $87bn worth of Indian exports are now under threat of a 50 percent duty from Aug 27. That’s not a warning shot. That’s a loaded gun on the trade table.

The real pressure point is India’s dependence on dollar liquidity. How else will it pay for the $109bn it spends annually on imports from China? How else will it fund the next round of supply chain relocations, semiconductor capacity, or defence modernisation. That’s the leverage Navarro is now spelling out in public. That’s the same leverage Trump is wielding without hesitation.

To make matters worse for Modi, none of this is happening in isolation. If he thought the Russia relationship would give him oil independence, or that India’s new manufacturing push would shield it from trade retaliation, this past week has been a rude awakening. Not only has Trump made it clear that India must follow Washington’s rules, he’s also forcing New Delhi into the awkward position of having to re-engage China on economic terms just to soften the blow.

It’s not that Modi wants to pivot east. He can’t. After Beijing’s very public military and material support to Pakistan in the last India-Pakistan conflict, any meaningful strategic alignment is politically impossible. But economics does not care for loyalties. If India wants cheaper batteries, EV tech, or lithium-ion supply chains, it will have to look to the same Chinese companies it once barred. And when you’re being squeezed from one side by dollar hegemony and from the other by voter expectations at home, the middle ground starts to shrink.

So while Europe repositions itself around a re-empowered Trump, and India scrambles to salvage dignity without sacrificing market access, the real lesson is this. Donald Trump isn’t playing chess with individual nations. He’s playing a global game of leverage. And the currency isn’t just the dollar. It is control. And he loves it, because he knows he’ll win by default.

Which brings us, almost inevitably, to Pakistan.

So far, it has escaped the wrath of Trump’s transactional diplomacy. In fact, it has somehow ridden a wave of goodwill with the US president. He’s had lunch with the army chief. He’s publicly praised Pakistan’s role in regional stability. He’s even spoken positively about its cooperation on Afghanistan and anti-terror efforts. And while no one’s quite sure what has charmed him — was it the quiet capture of an ISIS commander in Afghanistan, the lobbying for a Nobel nomination during his last term? — the approval is real, at least for now.

But this is Trump. The same Trump who once turned on Islamabad with a single tweet. He declared “no more” in 2018 and froze aid while accusing Pakistan of lies and deceit. The same Trump who can pivot from handshake to sanctions faster than his advisers can draft the next memo.

Pakistan may have his attention, even his praise. But in this particular game, attention isn’t a guarantee. It is a spotlight. And nobody stays in that spotlight for long without eventually being told where to stand, what to say, sometimes even how to spend.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

NEW DELHI: India and China agreed to resume direct flights and step up trade and investment flows as the neighbours rebuild ties damaged by a 2020 border clash.

The Asian giants are cautiously strengthening ties against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, staging a series of high-level bilateral visits.

The two countries would resume direct flights and boost trade and investment, including reopening border trade at three designated points, and facilitate in visas, the Indian foreign ministry said.

Direct flights have been suspended since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. No date was given for their resumption.

Moscow expects New Delhi to keep buying its oil

The latest statements came at the end of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to New Delhi for the 24th round of talks with Indian National Security (NSA) Adviser Ajit Doval to resolve their decades old border dispute.

The border talks covered issues related to pulling back troops both countries have amassed on their Himalayan border, delimitation of borders and boundary affairs, the Indian ministry said.

Both countries have agreed to set up a working group to consult and coordinate on border affairs to advance demarcation negotiations, a Chinese foreign ministry statement released on Wednesday showed.

It said the mechanism will extend talks to cover the eastern and middle sections of the border. Meanwhile, another round of talks on the western section will be held as soon as possible, the ministry said.

Beijing also said both countries agreed to meet again in China in 2026.

“Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X after meeting Wang.

Russian oil

Meanwhile, Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the United States, Russian embassy officials in New Delhi said on Wednesday, adding that Moscow hopes trilateral talks will soon take place with India and China.

US President Donald Trump has announced an additional tariff of 25 per cent on Indian goods exported to the US from August 27, as a punishment for buying Russian oil.

“I want to highlight that despite the political situation, we can predict that the same level of oil import (by India),” Roman Babushkin, the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy in India, told a press briefing.

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2025

NEW YORK: During a US naval test off the California coast last month, which was designed to showcase the Pentagon’s top autonomous drone boats, one vessel stalled unexpectedly.

As officials scrambled to fix a software glitch, another drone vessel smashed into the idling boats starboard side, vaulted over the deck, and crashed back into the water an incident captured in videos.

The previously unreported episode, which involved two vessels built by US defence tech rivals Saronic and BlackSea Technologies, is one of a series of recent setbacks in the Pentagon’s push to build a fleet of autonomous vessels, according to a dozen people familiar with the program. Weeks earlier, during a separate Navy test, the captain of a support boat was thrown into the water after another autonomous BlackSea vessel it was towing suddenly accelerated, capsizing the support boat, according to four people familiar with the matter. The captain was rescued and declined medical attention.

Both incidents stemmed from a combination of software failures and human error, including breakdowns in communication between onboard systems and external autonomous software, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to share sensitive information.

The Navy, Saronic and BlackSea declined to comment on the incidents. US military leaders, seeing the outsized impact of maritime drones in the Ukraine war, have repeatedly said they need autonomous swarms of aerial and maritime drones to hinder a potential advance by China across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan itself has begun acquiring its own maritime drones.

The drones being developed in Ukraine, which often look like speedboats without seats, and are capable of carrying weapons, explosives and surveillance equipment, are primarily remote-controlled and cost close to $250,000 making them optimal for kamikaze missions that have effectively neutralized Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The US, meanwhile, is aiming to build an autonomous naval fleet that can move in swarms and without human command a more ambitious task at a higher price point; as much as a few million dollars per speedboat. The recent test failures highlight the challenges facing the Navy’s effort to deploy the nascent technologies, said Bryan Clark, an autonomous warfare expert at the Hudson Institute. It will need to adapt its “tactics as it better understands what the systems can do and what they cant do.” But the Navy’s problems go beyond getting the boats to work: its autonomous maritime drone acquisition unit has also been rocked by the firing of its top admiral, and a top Pentagon official voiced concerns about the program in a candid meeting with Navy brass last month.

Since the most recent incident, the Pentagon’s Defence Innovation Unit (DIU), which had acquired technology for the tests, has indefinitely paused a contract valued close to $20 million with L3Harris, one of the companies providing autonomous software used to control some of the vessels, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The Pentagon did not respond to questions about the cause of the accidents or the L3Harris contract being paused, which has not been previously reported. A Pentagon spokesperson said it conducted drone tests as part of a “competitive and iterative approach, between operators and industry.”

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2025

COPENHAGEN: Worried by a “reading crisis”, Denmark’s government will eliminate its sales tax on books, looking to get more citizens buying them, the culture minister said on Wednesday.

The Scandinavian country’s 25-per cent tax on books is currently the highest in Europe, and stands in stark contrast with countries such as Britain that charge no sales tax on book purchases.

“We need to do all we can to fix this reading crisis that has unfortunately spread in recent years,” Culture Minister Jakob Engel-Schmidt told news agency Ritzau, announcing the government’s budget bill would propose eliminating the sales tax on books.

The measure would cost the state an estimated 330 million kroner ($51 million) a year.

The latest education report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised alarm in Denmark when it found 24 percent of Danish 15-year-olds cannot understand a simple text, up four percentage points in a decade.

Denmark’s publishing industry had pushed for the tax cut, saying in a May report the government needed to “guarantee access to physical books for all Danes — both children and adults”.

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2025

SYDNEY: Australia lashed Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday after he said the country’s prime minister was weak, with a top minister saying strength was more than “how many people you can blow up”.

For decades, Australia has considered itself a close friend of Israel, but the relationship has swiftly unravelled since Canberra announced last week it would recognise a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu drastically escalated a war of words on Tuesday night, calling his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese a “weak politician who betrayed Israel”.

Australian Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said it was the sign of a frustrated leader “lashing out”. “Strength is not measured by how many people you can blow up or how many children you can leave hungry,” Burke told national broadcaster ABC.

“What we’ve seen with some of the actions they are taking is a continued isolation of Israel from the world, and that is not in their interests either.” Through the 1950s, Australia was a refuge for Jews fleeing the horrors of the Holocaust. The city of Melbourne at one point housed, per capita, the largest population of Holocaust survivors anywhere outside of Israel.

Netanyahu was infuriated when Australia declared it would recognise Palestinian statehood next month, following similar pledges from France, Canada and the United Kingdom. In the space of nine days since that decision, relations between Australia and Israel have plummeted.

‘Abandoned Australia’s Jews’

Australia on Monday cancelled the visa of far-right Israeli politician Simcha Rothman — a member of Netanyahu’s governing coalition — saying his planned speaking tour would “spread division”.

The tit-for-tat continued on Tuesday, when Israel retaliated by revoking visas held by Canberra’s diplomatic representatives to the Palestinian Authority.

Then came Netanyahu’s social media outburst. “History will remember Albanese for what he is: A weak politician who betrayed Israel and abandoned Australia’s Jews,” he said on X.

Israel finds itself increasingly isolated as it continues to wage war in Gaza, a conflict triggered by the October 2023 raid by Hamas.

UN-backed experts have warned of widespread famine unfolding in the territory, where Israel has severely restricted the entry of humanitarian aid. New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said last week that Netanyahu had “lost the plot”.

Relations between Australia and Israel started fraying late last year following a spate of anti-Semitic attacks in Sydney and Melbourne.

Netanyahu accused the Australian government of harbouring “anti-Israel sentiment” after a synagogue was firebombed in December.

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2025

WASHINGTON: The White House has signalled a balancing act in South Asia, saying President Donald Trump wants to shrink the US trade deficit with India, while offering to work with Pakistan to develop what he has described as its “massive oil reserves.”

An article in the Washington Post described America’s recent thaw with Islamabad as unexpected, amid a sharp deterioration in relations with New Delhi.

When Trump won reelection in November, many in Pakistan braced for a rough ride. In his first term, he had openly favoured India, castigating Pakistan for “deceit” and sheltering “terrorists”.

Yet six months into his second term — and after the most serious India Pakistan flareup in decades — the tables appear to have turned.

Trade spats and a personal falling out with Narendra Modi have pushed US India ties into crisis, while Pakistan has edged into Washington’s good books, WaPo noted.

In August, a frustrated Trump criticised India’s oil purchases from Russia, slapping 50pc tarrifs on New Delhi and launching a fierce rebuke: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

Islamabad secured a 19pc tariff rate — low by regional standards, and far beneath the 50pc levy slapped on India.

Trump has also boasted of joint plans to explore Pakistan’s oil, while Pakistani officials have pitched cryptocurrency ventures and access to rare minerals.

Behind the scenes, Islamabad has hired Javelin Advisors, led by longtime Trump associates George A Sorial and Keith Schiller, and cultivated family networks.

World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm backed by the Trump family, signed a letter of intent with Pakistan’s Crypto Council in April; the visiting US delegation included Zachary Witkoff, son of real estate developer Steve Witkoff, now Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.

But some former officials worry that Pakistan’s leadership has been blinded by its recent successes and is not attuned to the risks. “Flattery is not a strategy — it’s not long-term,” warned Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States.

According to WaPo, the army, widely viewed as Pakistan’s ultimate power broker, took charge of the outreach, dispatching Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi to Washington during inauguration week to soothe Congress.

Still, there are ambitions in Islamabad to lock in gains — notably access to American defence kit from attack helicopters to naval hardware. “We can’t go back to the golden years of the 1950s,” said former ambassador Masood Khan, “but we can build a paradigm that benefits both the United States and Pakistan.”

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2025