Good morning. Humanitarians are running out of words to describe the horrors taking place in Gaza. The small strip of land has been brutalised, with all institutions that sustain life – from hospitals to schools – either completely destroyed or barely functioning. Now, the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns that “the worst-case scenario of famine is now unfolding in the Gaza Strip.”
Thousands of children are malnourished and hunger-related deaths on the rise, particularly among the youngest. It is worth noting this is not a formal designation of famine in Gaza, and formal designations are incredibly rare and have only taken place a handful of times in the 21st century: in Somalia in 2011, in South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and in Sudan in 2024.
What is perhaps most extraordinary about the situation is that desperately needed food and medicine lie at the borders of Gaza, leaving many to say that this famine is entirely human-made.
It’s for this reason, among others, that UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced Britain would recognise a Palestinian state in September – unless Israel abides by a ceasefire and commits to a two-state solution for the Middle East.
Israel has denied limiting aid shipments. It has accused Hamas of diverting aid and blamed food shortages in Gaza on other factors, including distribution failures by the UN.
To understand the nuance of when famine is declared, whether Gaza meets that threshold and what is needed to reverse course, I spoke to Francesco Checchi, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and one of the county’s leading experts on food insecurity in conflict zones. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
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Asia-Pacific | A powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake has triggered a series of tsunami warnings and evacuation orders across Japan, the US and parts of the Pacific, after the shallow quake hit near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula.
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Israel-Gaza war | A group of high-profile Israeli public figures, including academics, artists and public intellectuals, has called for “crippling sanctions” to be imposed by the international community on Israel, amid mounting horror over its starvation of Gaza.
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Labour | Jeremy Corbyn has accused the Labour government of “appeasing” Reform UK by “scapegoating” migrants and minorities for its own domestic policy failures, saying his new leftwing political party would take on Nigel Farage instead.
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Economy | Global growth will be stronger than previously expected this year after Donald Trump scaled back his most extreme tariff threats, the International Monetary Fund said as it upgraded the economic outlook for 2025.
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UK news | Five women who were abused as children by Rotherham grooming gangs were also raped by police officers when they were as young as 12 years old, they have claimed.
In depth: ‘What needs to happen is very, very simple: a complete opening of the border’
The IPC was created as a tracking tool for hunger by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in 2004. It is now the primary means of identifying famine across the world.
The group applies the same standards across the countries it operates in, using a sliding scale from phase one (no or minimal food insecurity) to phase five (catastrophe or famine). It defines famine as a situation in which at least 20% households have an extreme lack of food and face starvation and destitution, resulting in extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death.
Other classifications for phase five include roughly 30% of children under the age of five suffering from acute malnutrition, and two adults or four children out of 10,000 people dying from starvation or malnutrition on a daily basis.
The latest analysis for the IPC makes for grim reading. It notes that:
Between May and July 2025, acute malnutrition rates doubled in Khan Younis and increased by 70% in Deir al-Balah.
In Gaza City, the acute malnutrition soared from 4.4% in May to 16.5% in the first half of July, reaching the famine threshold.
Two-fifths of pregnant and breastfeeding women in the Gaza Strip were acutely malnourished in June.
In northern Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is thought to be the worst, humanitarians are operating in the dark due to the lack of data.
Famine is often declared in clusters within a city or an area, Francesco Checchi told me. “It isn’t necessarily the case that an entire population is declared to be in famine conditions. But in the case of Gaza, I think that’s what we’re seeing now”.
Is there famine in Gaza?
The IPC has stopped short of a formal declaration of famine, though its alert noted that some areas have reached the threshold. But Checchi, and other leading experts on the topic, are confident there is now a famine in Gaza.
He explained there are different definitions of famine, but the broader one describes it as a situation where people have run out of any coping mechanisms to find food for themselves and their children. “By coping mechanisms, I mean people sell off their assets, such as furniture, anything, borrow money from somebody else, or ask for remittances from relatives overseas. Where famine has set in is where none of that is actually possible.
“So talking to people from charities on the ground that I know, even their staff who have money in their pocket quite literally cannot purchase any food because there is no food to be purchased in a market,” Checchi said.
Some on social media have criticised media portrayals of skeletal children in Gaza as misleading, including the shocking images and footage of 18-month-old Mohammed al-Mutawaq (pictured above with his mother, Hidaya), claiming his appearance is the result of other health conditions.
“Every time you show a single image, you expose yourself to the criticism that any given individual child may have some sort of condition that explains what they’re going through other than malnutrition,” Checchi said. “Now, I can show you an obvious demonstration of the fact that people in Gaza are literally starving: you have thousands and thousands of people queueing every day at the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution site, even though it is almost certain on any given day that they will be fired upon. The fact they are going there anyway, even though they may not return, gives you a sense of how absolutely in need of food people are.”
He added: “When it comes to any individual child, it is worth understanding that children do not die of severe malnutrition. Very rarely do people literally starve to death. It happens, but it’s relatively rare. Instead, people die of conditions that they would have survived from, such as common diarrhoea or common respiratory infections, that you and I would cope with very easily, but a malnourished body cannot cope with.”
It’s not surprising then that in a famine the first children to die are those who are disabled or have pre-existing conditions, Checchi said. It’s also worth noting that in Gaza there are severe shortages of the life-saving medication needed to treat these children.
“What I think is going to start happening inevitably, unless the situation changes radically in the next two to three weeks, is that there’s going to be a huge wave of children dying of common conditions and who otherwise wouldn’t have,” he warned.
Do we need more data?
The IPC alert noted its struggle to get the data necessary to properly assess the situation, particularly in northern Gaza. Checchi said that one of the main reasons for this is Israel’s tightening of the border crossing, preventing humanitarians from working freely through the strip.
“The kind of analysis that one could have done a year ago is no longer possible. I don’t think there is any real information that is missing in terms of declaring a famine on the grounds because of the convergence of multiple data and multiple contextual information. And I don’t think that governments such as the UK are unaware that what is happening is a famine,” Checchi said.
Why is the UK now recognising Palestine?
The “increasingly intolerable” situation on the ground in Gaza has spearheaded a historic announcement by the UK government: it committed to recognising a Palestinian state.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer told his ministers that recognition would take place ahead of the UN general assembly in New York this September, unless Israel agreed to a series of conditions set out in the UK-led eight-point peace plan.
The UK has called on Israel to take “substantive steps” to end the situation in Gaza, reach a ceasefire, commit to no annexation in the West Bank, as well as a long-term peace process. While many Labour MPs have welcomed the announcement, others are unhappy that Palestinian statehood – widely regarded as an inalienable right – was being wielded as leverage to pressure Israel into compliance.
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What can we do now to stop this catastrophe?
For now, severe hunger and death continue to stalk the Gaza Strip. Checchi said he was shocked to see the UK government back airdrops as a solution to the crisis of hunger in Gaza. The studies on the effectiveness of airdrops and former US president Joe Biden’s humanitarian aid pier were damning: it only contributed about 1% of caloric need in Gaza last year.
“Airdrops are actually dangerous because they kill people. People will drown trying to reach food [while others have been crushed to death by them]. They are ineffective and inefficient,” Checchi said. “What needs to happen is very, very simple: a complete opening of the border crossings, and a complete restart of the traditional system of food distribution run by Unrwa, which has been running for decades now. They know what to do. They have the lists of people, they have the warehouses, they have everything in place to restart that system.”
Checchi was keen to emphasise that the worst can still be averted. “If food began to flood in and people were able to access it, despite reaching famine levels, the situation could conceivably reverse quite quickly. Whereas if you leave that for another two weeks or three weeks, then I think it’s almost inevitable we’ll see extremely high levels of child mortality.”
The issue, as always, is political will.
What else we’ve been reading
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Here’s a lovely piece about grandparents who get roped into school runs, sleepovers, film nights and baking (like Rita Labiche-Robinson, pictured above with her granddaughter Nia). For many, the main reason is simple: they enjoy it. Their kids seem to appreciate it, too. Phoebe
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Keir Starmer was sold to the public as a distinguished human rights lawyer who would restore the UK’s commitment to international law if he won the election. But, since he became prime minister, many are asking why he is so cautious about tackling human rights abuses. Aamna
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It’ll be American families who pick up the bill for Trump’s tariffs, writes Callum Jones. Estimates suggest the impact so far is the equivalent to an average income loss of $2,400 (£1,800) per US household. Phoebe
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England are European champions – again. The togetherness of the team, including their shared anger at the racist abuse meted out to black players, was central in helping them clinch victory. Aamna
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Campaigners in Devon have mapped out land ownership along the Dart river and found it has 108 separate owners. Ownership is often murky –one-eighth of it is owned via offshore companies. Looks like the government election manifesto pledge to implement nine new “river walks” in England could be a logistical nightmare. Phoebe
Sport
Football | A total of 65,000 jubilant England fans lined the Mall in central London on Tuesday to welcome home the victorious Lionesses after their Euro 2025 victory on Sunday. The England squad, who returned from Switzerland on Monday after their victory over Spain the day before, were greeted by chants, cheers and more than a few tears.
Cricket | India’s increasingly ill-tempered tour of England continued as their head coach, Gautam Gambhir, engaged in an angry exchange with Surrey’s head groundsman on Tuesday.
Cycling | Dutch rider Lorena Wiebes stormed to her second consecutive stage victory at the Tour de France Femmes, winning the fourth leg with a dominant sprint finish. The largely flat 130km stage from Saumur to Poitiers saw the peloton remain tightly packed until the closing stretch before a showdown among the sprinters.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “UK to recognise state of Palestine unless Israel commits to ceasefire”. The Mirror calls it an “Ultimatum”, while the Times says “Israel blasts Starmer over recognition of Palestine”. The Telegraph quotes Benjamin Netanyahu, saying “Starmer ‘rewarding Hamas on Palestine’”, while the Mail follows the same line with “Starmer’s ‘reward for Hamas’”.
The Financial Times reports “Reeves’ impatience for full Revolut approval triggers clash with Bailey”. Finally, the Sun reports on the end of a celebrity marriage with “Cat & Pat split”.
Today in Focus
Can people still protest about Palestine in the UK?
What has been the impact of Palestine Action’s proscription as a terrorist organisation? Haroon Siddique reports.
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A Cambridge-based antiques dealer snapped up a Salvador Dalí painting at a house clearance sale after spotting Dalí’s signature scrawled on the bottom-right corner. The painting of a bejewelled sultan hadn’t garnered much interest among others at the auction. “I wasn’t sure I’d have it on the wall, to be honest,” said John Russell (not his real name).
But he realised he was on to a winner, and was confident in his ability to spot an imitation thanks to years spent avidly watching the BBC TV show Fake or Fortune?. The painting only attracted two bidders, and Russell quickly outbid the other person when he offered £150.
The Dalí expert Nicolas Descharnes confirmed to the Guardian it was authentic, albeit not his usual style. “People expect to see very surrealist pieces by Dalí. This one is not surrealist, but it’s a Dalí,” he said. It is now valued at £20,000 to £30,000.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
