Blog

Spotify Technology (SPOT) just kicked off its 2025 Wrapped campaign, turning year end listening habits into a global event that now includes real time social features like Wrapped Party and offline pop up experiences.

See our latest analysis for Spotify Technology.

All of this lands while investors are processing bigger shifts, from Spotify’s push into video and AI driven efficiency to Daniel Ek’s planned move to executive chairman. The 23.4% year to date share price return and three year total shareholder return of 622.7% suggest longer term momentum remains intact despite a softer recent patch.

If Spotify’s Wrapped has you thinking about what else is shaping digital media, it could be a good time to scan other high growth tech and AI stocks that are gaining traction.

With revenue and profits inflecting higher, a lower than industry P E multiple, and a double digit discount to analyst targets, is Spotify still misunderstood by the market or are investors already paying up for years of future growth?

According to MichaelP, the narrative fair value for Spotify sits well above the last close, framing today’s price as a potential long term entry point.

The market’s obsession with short term results over long term results is what led many investors to misunderstand Amazon, Netflix and many others in their early days, and the same is true with Spotify. You’d hear investors say: “Yeah, but you aren’t profitable?”. Those companies were playing the long game while those investors who only looked a few quarters out missed the boat of companies that had great qualitative metrics that weren’t yet evident in traditional quantitative financial metrics.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this story gets to a much higher valuation from here? The secret mix: rapid earnings expansion, fuller margins, and a punchy future multiple. Want the full blueprint?

Result: Fair Value of $703.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, sustained underperformance in ads or rivals chipping away at Spotify’s market share could delay margin expansion and challenge today’s undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Spotify Technology narrative.

Step away from narrative fair value and the current earnings multiple tells a tougher story. Spotify trades at about 71 times earnings, roughly triple the US Entertainment sector at 22 times and more than double its own fair ratio of 34.7 times. This implies far less margin for error if growth slows or sentiment turns.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own thesis, you can build a personalized Spotify story in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Spotify Technology.

Before you log off, you could turn this momentum into action by scanning fresh stock ideas on Simply Wall Street’s Screener so you are not sidelined on the next opportunity.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SPOT.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Aptiv (APTV) has quietly slipped over the past month, with the stock down almost 9% even as its year to date return still sits solidly positive. That change may present an interesting potential entry point for some investors.

See our latest analysis for Aptiv.

That pullback sits against a much stronger backdrop, with a year to date share price return of 26.65% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 34.76%. This suggests momentum has cooled recently, while the broader trend still looks constructive.

If Aptiv has caught your eye, it can also be worth seeing how other auto suppliers are trading right now by scanning auto manufacturers for fresh ideas.

With shares pulling back despite double digit annual gains and trading at a hefty discount to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: is Aptiv undervalued or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

With Aptiv last closing at $76.37 versus a narrative fair value of $98.24, the story points to meaningful upside if its transformation plays out.

Spin off of the Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) business and continued execution on footprint optimization/cost structure initiatives are expected to unlock shareholder value, create balance sheet flexibility, and allow for greater strategic focus on software and high growth advanced electronics areas, with positive impact on net margins and long term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue runway, margin lift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that upside case? The projections behind this fair value lean heavily on accelerating profit growth, rising software like economics, and a leaner post spin business mix. Curious how those moving parts combine into that target price and what has to go right along the way?

Result: Fair Value of $98.24 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that upside depends on resilient auto demand and a smooth EDS separation, as macro softness or execution missteps could easily derail the profitability narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Aptiv narrative.

Step away from the narrative of fair value and the picture looks less forgiving. On a price-to-earnings basis, Aptiv trades at 55.9 times, well above the Auto Components industry at 18.7 times, the peer average at 26.6 times, and even its own 46.7 times fair ratio. Is the market already front loading too much optimism?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see this differently, or would rather dive into the numbers yourself, you can shape a personalized view in just minutes by using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Aptiv research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Before you move on, lock in your next potential opportunity by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover focused ideas that match your strategy.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include APTV.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• Earlier this week, Morningstar, Inc. announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to US$0.50 per share, payable on January 30, 2026, and unveiled major updates to its Morningstar Medalist Rating methodology scheduled to roll out globally in April 2026.

• The combination of a higher cash payout and a more transparent, fee-sensitive rating framework underscores Morningstar’s focus on both shareholder returns and improving how investors evaluate managed funds.

• Against this backdrop, we’ll explore how the enhanced dividend and revamped Medalist Rating reshape Morningstar’s investment narrative for long-term investors.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

To own Morningstar, you need to believe in the durability of its data and ratings franchises, where sticky subscription revenue and high returns on equity support a premium valuation despite slower forecast growth than the wider market. The 10% dividend bump to US$0.50 per share reinforces that cash generation remains healthy even after a bruising share price pullback and margin pressures over the past year, but it does not fundamentally change the near term story. The more meaningful catalyst is the overhaul of the Morningstar Medalist Rating in April 2026, which could deepen client reliance on Morningstar’s analytics if investors embrace the clearer fee and manager experience signals, or invite scrutiny if outcomes disappoint. That tension sits alongside existing risks around high expectations, rising costs and a relatively new management team.

Morningstar’s shares are on the way up, but could they be overextended? Uncover how much higher they are than fair value.

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$90 to a very large upper bound, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set against that, the coming Medalist methodology shift and Morningstar’s still elevated earnings multiple give you plenty of reasons to compare several perspectives before deciding what the business might realistically deliver.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Morningstar – why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Morningstar research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free Morningstar research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Morningstar’s overall financial health at a glance.

Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don’t delay:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MORN.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Story Continues

For profitable companies like Star Bulk Carriers, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of current earnings, making it a straightforward lens for comparing valuation. What counts as a normal or fair PE depends heavily on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are, with faster growing or lower risk businesses typically justifying higher multiples.

Star Bulk currently trades on a PE of 37.88x, which sits well above the broader shipping industry average of about 10.08x and also above the peer group average of around 5.22x. Simply Wall St goes a step further by estimating a Fair Ratio of 43.96x, a proprietary view of what the PE should be once factors like expected earnings growth, profitability, industry, market cap and company specific risks are accounted for. This tailored Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for the fact that not all shipping companies share the same outlook or risk profile.

Since the current PE of 37.88x is below the Fair Ratio of 43.96x, this lens indicates that Star Bulk Carriers may be undervalued on an earnings multiple basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1452 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Star Bulk Carriers future with the numbers you see on screen. A Narrative is your story for the company, where you spell out how you think revenue, earnings and margins will evolve, and then link that story to a financial forecast and ultimately to a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and compare these Narratives in the Community page, using them as an accessible tool to decide when to buy or sell by checking whether their Fair Value sits above or below the current Price. Narratives update dynamically as fresh news, earnings or guidance come in, so your fair value and conviction can evolve with the facts. For example, one Star Bulk Narrative might lean into fleet modernization, tight vessel supply and capital returns to support a fair value near the top of the current analyst range, while a more cautious Narrative could emphasize aging ships, leverage and trade volatility to anchor valuation closer to the low end.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Star Bulk Carriers? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SBLK.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Story Continues

For consumer brands like Estée Lauder Companies, revenue-based metrics are often more useful than earnings because sales are less affected by one-off costs and margin swings. The Price to Sales ratio shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue, which makes it a reasonable yardstick for a profitable, established beauty business.

In general, faster, more resilient growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher multiple, while slower or more volatile growth supports a discount. Estée Lauder Companies currently trades on a Price to Sales multiple of 2.62x, which is above both the wider Personal Products industry average of 0.96x and the peer group average of 1.95x. On the surface, that suggests a premium valuation.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what a “normal” Price to Sales multiple should be after accounting for factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company-specific risks. For Estée Lauder Companies, that Fair Ratio is 2.26x, modestly below the current 2.62x. This indicates the shares are trading richer than what those fundamentals would typically support.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1452 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simple, story driven forecasts where you spell out how you think a business like Estée Lauder Companies will grow, translate that view into revenue, earnings and margin estimates, and then see what fair value those assumptions imply. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to connect a company’s story to a set of numbers, turning their expectations about things like digital expansion, luxury fragrance growth, or ongoing restructuring risks into a concrete valuation they can compare with today’s share price to help inform a decision. Because Narratives update dynamically when fresh information arrives, such as new earnings, product launches or macro news, your fair value view evolves automatically instead of going stale. For Estée Lauder Companies, one investor might build a Narrative closer to $120 per share based on stronger travel retail and emerging market recovery, while another might lean toward a more cautious Narrative nearer $61, assuming slower demand and margin pressure, and the platform makes those differing perspectives transparent and easy to explore.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Estée Lauder Companies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include EL.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Story Continues