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NuScale Power (SMR) has been on a choppy ride lately, with the share price down about 44% over the past month but still up roughly 21% year to date, leaving investors reassessing its long term nuclear story.

See our latest analysis for NuScale Power.

That sharp 30 day share price return of around negative 44% comes after a strong year to date gain and a near doubling three year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has cooled as investors reassess execution risks around NuScale’s long term nuclear rollout.

If NuScale’s swings have you rethinking concentration in a single name, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other high conviction growth stories backed by committed insiders.

With shares still up strongly over three years yet trading almost 80 percent below analyst targets, investors face a pivotal question: is NuScale undervalued after the pullback, or already pricing in the next wave of nuclear growth?

With NuScale’s fair value pegged at about $38.35 versus a last close of $21.39, the most followed narrative paints a sizable upside gap.

With an NRC approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue surge and margin shift could justify that gap, and why the future earnings multiple looks so aggressive? The full narrative unpacks a high speed revenue ramp, a sharp swing from deep losses toward industry style profitability, and a premium valuation normally reserved for market darlings. Curious how those moving parts add up to the projected fair value? Dive in to see the exact growth blueprint behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $38.35 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent delays in securing firm utility orders and potential dilutive funding needs around ENTRA1 could quickly challenge that bullish fair value case.

Find out about the key risks to this NuScale Power narrative.

While the popular narrative sees NuScale as 44.2% undervalued, our DCF model points the other way, with fair value near $3.17 versus a $21.39 share price. That implies NuScale could be significantly overvalued if lofty growth and margin assumptions fall short. Which future do you believe?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NuScale Power for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 906 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the outlook differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your NuScale Power research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Do not stop with a single thesis when the market is full of overlooked opportunities. Let Simply Wall Street’s powerful Screener guide your next smart move.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SMR.

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