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• Wondering if Bank of America is still worth buying after its big run over the years, or if most of the upside is already priced in? In this article we unpack what the market is signaling about its true value.

• The stock has climbed 2.1% over the last week, 1.0% over the past month, and is up 22.1% year to date, adding to a longer term gain of 110.8% over five years. This puts recent moves into a much bigger context.

• Recent headlines have focused on large US banks navigating higher for longer interest rate expectations and evolving regulatory proposals. Both of these factors directly influence how investors think about profitability and risk. At the same time, ongoing discussion around credit quality and consumer health has kept sentiment toward major lenders like Bank of America shifting more quickly than usual.

• Right now, Bank of America scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks, which suggests that while parts of the stock look cheap, others may be closer to fair value. In the sections that follow we walk through different valuation approaches to see what they indicate, then finish with a more holistic way to think about what Bank of America might really be worth.

Bank of America scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company can generate above the return that shareholders require, and then capitalizes those surplus returns into an intrinsic value per share.

For Bank of America, the starting point is its Book Value of $37.95 per share and a Stable EPS of $4.57 per share, based on weighted future return on equity estimates from 11 analysts. Against a Cost of Equity of $3.68 per share, this implies an Excess Return of $0.89 per share, meaning the bank is expected to earn more than the minimum return investors demand. The Average Return on Equity of 11.16% supports this, and analysts also see Stable Book Value growing to about $40.94 per share over time, based on forecasts from 14 analysts.

Combining these assumptions, the Excess Returns valuation points to an intrinsic value of about $56.52 per share, which suggests Bank of America is roughly 4.3% undervalued relative to its current price, effectively close to fair value.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Bank of America is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bank of America.

For a mature, consistently profitable bank like Bank of America, the price to earnings ratio is a practical way to judge value because it directly links what investors pay to the profits the business is generating today. In general, companies with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher PE multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually warrants a discount.

Bank of America currently trades on a PE of 13.98x, slightly above the broader Banks industry average of 11.48x and roughly in line with the peer group at 13.72x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 16.31x, which represents the PE multiple the stock might reasonably command given its earnings growth profile, profitability, industry, size and risk factors. This tailored Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the specific strengths and vulnerabilities of Bank of America rather than assuming all banks deserve the same multiple.

Comparing the current PE of 13.98x to the Fair Ratio of 16.31x suggests the market is still pricing the stock at a modest discount to its fundamentals.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1441 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a smarter, more dynamic way to invest that connects the story you believe about Bank of America to hard numbers like future revenue, earnings, margins and ultimately a Fair Value estimate you can compare with today’s share price to inform your decision to buy, hold or sell.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are used by millions of investors as an accessible tool to turn their views about catalysts, risks and the macro environment into a forward-looking forecast. This then flows into a valuation that automatically updates when new information such as earnings, news or regulatory changes arrives.

For example, one Bank of America Narrative may assume relatively cautious growth, regulatory headwinds and a Fair Value around $43.34 per share. Another more optimistic Narrative might expect stronger digital adoption, resilient margins and a Fair Value closer to $58.90. This illustrates how two investors can look at the same bank, plug in different but reasonable assumptions, and arrive at different yet transparent conclusions about what the stock is worth today.

For Bank of America, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Bank of America narratives:

🐂 Bank of America Bull Case

Fair value estimate: $58.90 per share

Implied undervaluation: -6.8%

Forecast revenue growth: 7.82%

• Builds on ongoing investment in digital engagement and AI to support mid single digit earnings growth and slightly higher profit margins.

• Assumes disciplined asset repricing, net interest income growth and steady share buybacks that lift earnings per share while keeping credit quality intact.

• Arrives at an analyst consensus fair value close to the current price, framing Bank of America as broadly fairly valued with selective upside if execution stays on track.

🐻 Bank of America Bear Case

Fair value estimate: $43.34 per share

Implied overvaluation: 24.8%

Forecast revenue growth: 10.59%

• Recognizes Bank of America’s strong franchise, digital progress and resilient net interest income, but sees current valuation as rich versus a more conservative long term outlook.

• Highlights macro and policy risks, from rate cuts and recession threats to shifting regulation and the signaling impact of Warren Buffett trimming his stake.

• Models solid but slower earnings growth, moderating buybacks and a lower future PE multiple, which together point to a present value meaningfully below today’s share price.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Bank of America? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BAC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

(Bloomberg) — Japanese assets took the spotlight in Asia on Thursday. The nation’s shares led gains in the region after US data boosted odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week, while a sale of its 30-year government bonds drew the strongest demand since 2019.

The Topix and Nikkei 225 rose more than 1.7% each versus a gain of 0.5% for MSCI Inc.’s broader gauge of Asian equities. Indexes in South Korea and Taiwan snapped a two-day advance. US stock futures were steady after the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% overnight, while Bitcoin hovered around $93,000 after a two-day rally.

Data on Wednesday showed US companies shed payrolls in November by the most since early 2023, reinforcing concerns about a more pronounced labor market weakening. Swaps pricing indicated rising expectations for a December cut Wednesday, with traders assigning more than a 90% chance to a 25-basis-point reduction.

“Unlike many other markets in Asia, Japan is more sensitive to developments around Fed rate-cut expectations, partly because the Fed may set the pace for the Bank of Japan via the FX channel” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “A strengthening conviction over Fed rate cuts, by easing pressure on the yen, could offer more runway for the BOJ to remain accommodative for longer.”

Japan’s 30-year bonds gained following the auction result, which came after a sale of 10-year notes earlier in the week also drew firm demand. Together, the results have offered some relief to the market that has seen yields surge due to renewed fiscal concerns and on bets for a potential rate hike at the Dec. 19 BOJ policy decision.

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

“JGB investors seem to have found the yield level they love for 30-year bonds, with a huge 4.04 bid-to-cover ratio. That is the highest demand since 2019, with the low price well above the pre-sale forecast, which is another positive signal. Moreover, Nomura was the biggest buyer — typically a sign of long-term investors getting involved.”

— Mark Cranfield, Markets Live strategist. Click here for the full analysis.

Meanwhile in Australia, bond yields rose to the highest level this year amid growing speculation the central bank will switch back to raising rates to curb inflation.

In currency markets, a gauge of the dollar was steady after dropping 0.4% in the previous session, when US treasuries climbed across the curve, pushing two-year yields down to around 3.48%. The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as sentiment remained weak amid delays in securing a trade deal with the US.

Separately, China set its daily reference rate for the yuan at a level that was significantly weaker than estimates, suggesting the central bank is aiming to limit gains in the managed currency which is inching close to a keenly watched level of 7 per dollar.

Tech Drags

Cyclical stocks such as industrials and financials were among the top contributors to gains for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index on Thursday. While its moves this week have been small, the regional gauge is on course for a third straight session daily advance. It jumped 2.7% last week, the most since early October.

“The relief over the US November ADP employment data and growing hopes for the Fed’s rate cut next week seem to be contributing to a better sentiment for APAC equity markets,” said Homin Lee, a senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore.

In commodities, silver fell but continued to trade near an all-time high on the reinforced bets of a Fed cut. Gold edged lower. Oil held a modest gain as investors weighed the outlook for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the fallout from tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Trade and geopolitics were also on investors’ radar. French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Beijing on Thursday, where they would discuss a range of issues including economic ties, trade tensions, Taiwan and the war in Ukraine. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the US is expecting a large investment pledge from Taiwan in trade talks.

Fed Outlook

Despite the apparent confidence among investors, US policymakers have been torn as to whether they’ll cut rates for a third straight meeting as they attempt to balance the slowdown in the job market with still-elevated inflation.

Data on Wednesday showed US services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace, while a measure of prices paid dropped to a seven-month low.

Before their final policy meeting of the year, Fed officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge. On Friday, the September income and spending report is due to be released — long delayed because of the government shutdown.

The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economists project a third straight 0.2% increase in the core index. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering just below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky.

“Right now, the data argues for additional Fed funds rate cuts. US labor demand is weak, consumer spending is showing early signs of cracking, and upside risks to inflation are fading,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

Corporate News

Paramount Skydance Corp. more than doubled the proposed breakup fee in its offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. to $5 billion, according to people familiar with the company’s offer, part of a sweetened proposal designed to outshine rival bids. Singapore’s stock exchange is considering buying Cboe Global Markets Inc.’s Australian unit, the Australian Financial Review reported. On one of Larry Fink’s frequent trips to Australia, the BlackRock Inc. chief sized up a boutique finance firm run by an Olympic swimming champ — a prelude to a A$25 million ($16.5 million) play to crack open one of the world’s richest retirement systems. Hong Kong builder New World Development Co. failed to get full support from creditors in a key bond-exchange plan that required them to accept cuts in the value of their holdings. Microsoft Corp. slid 2.5% on a report of lower demand for some artificial-intelligence tools even as the company said aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been reduced. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 2:35 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 1.7% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.1% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1660 The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.35 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0647 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $93,075.12 Ether rose 0.6% to $3,184.46 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.08% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.70% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $59.33 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,194.37 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Aya Wagatsuma, Winnie Hsu and Richard Henderson.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Trends

Janet Berry-Johnson, CPA

Leaders are boosting traditional financial forecasts by using workforce data as an early indicator of business performance. Combined with AI, HR insights on engagement, turnover and skills help spot trends sooner, enabling faster, more accurate decisions and better margin management.

What business leader doesn’t want clearer foresight and better visibility into next quarter’s revenue, upcoming cost pressures and the health of their margins? Yet most forecasting models still rely almost entirely on financial data, even though financials tend to tell the story last.

The earliest signs of change, good or bad, nearly always appear in HR data analytics. And workforce trends may surface weeks or months before they show up on a balance sheet or income statement.

That’s why forward-looking leaders are rethinking their approach. With clean people data supported by responsible artificial intelligence (AI), organizations can turn early signals into reliable forecasts, spot risks sooner, plan resources more effectively and make decisions faster.

You don’t have to replace your existing financial forecasting model. Instead, power it with workforce insights you’ve been leaving untapped.

HR data analytics in motion

Financial outcomes tend to build slowly. When leaders learn to treat people data as “data in motion,” they discover workforce signals consistently move ahead of financial results.

For example, when employee engagement scores slip, production delays, quality issues and customer experience impacts often follow, creating avoidable revenue drag. Higher attrition drives recruitment costs, onboarding time and overtime to cover gaps, forecasting compressed margins in the next quarter. Slow time-to-fill or shortages in critical skills signal that teams may struggle to meet demand, limiting revenue potential or delaying projects.

None of these insights requires complex analytics. They simply require paying attention to how fast certain signals are changing and in which direction. When viewed this way, people data enhances forecasting. Instead of guessing where performance is headed, you observe it in real time through the people who drive it and maximize the value of your investments.

“You need to align your HR data analytics efforts to what’s important to the organization and the HR strategy that you have in place,” said Kathy Gawronski, VP Value Engineering at WorkForce Software – an ADP Company.

“First, it’s important to get support for driving more value out of your HR system and using available data to drive that value. It won’t be that difficult to get support to do that, because it’s getting more value out of what you’ve already invested in,” said Gawronski. “Begin small and leverage the value of initial studies to establish additional support and necessary investments. Be sure to communicate the impact to the bottom line of the initial insights. Lather, rinse, repeat.”

AI as the accelerator

High-quality people data creates early visibility, but responsible AI turns that visibility into sharper, faster and more reliable forecasting. Instead of manually stitching together spreadsheets, leaders can use AI to reduce reporting errors, uncover patterns earlier and model scenarios in seconds.

The benefits are practical and immediate:

• Fewer reporting mistakes: AI reduces manual entry and reconciliation work, helping eliminate the small but costly inaccuracies that distort forecasts.
• Faster scenario modeling: Leaders can test questions like, “What if attrition rises 35%?” or “How would a slowdown in hiring velocity affect project capacity?” without days of analysis.
• Improved budgeting accuracy: By detecting small shifts in workforce behavior early, AI gives HR and finance teams more time to adjust headcount plans, training investments and labor budgets.

According to McKinsey & Company, organizations using AI-driven forecasting saw forecasting errors drop 20% to 50% compared with traditional spreadsheet methods.

Forecast in action

Consider a regional business that began tracking absenteeism in conjunction with team performance. Initially, the metrics appeared unrelated. But eventually leaders noticed a pattern: when absenteeism crept up, productivity dipped shortly afterward, often before anyone flagged a problem.

By linking these signals, the company built a simple model that projected how rising absenteeism would affect output and labor costs. When the data began trending upward for one quarter, the model forecasted a margin decline nearly two months earlier than traditional financial reports would have. Armed with that insight, leaders acted quickly. They adjusted staffing plans, shifted workloads, and tightened scheduling practices, avoiding the overtime expenses that would have eroded margins.

This is the power of forecasting through people data. Even a basic connection between workforce behavior and financial outcomes can reveal issues earlier, strengthen planning and prevent cost overruns before they occur.

Quick start framework

You don’t need a full analytics function or complex modeling to begin forecasting with workforce insights. A simple, structured approach can help HR and business leaders build confidence, improve accuracy and demonstrate value quickly. But you do need technology that’s up to the task; a platform that can flex and expand with your needs and has AI capabilities built in. And it’s essential that you evaluate and address any shortfalls in the quality of your data. Clean and accurate data is essential to the success and output of everything that follows.

Step 1: Clean existing workforce data and link it to business goals

Data quality is critical. Start by validating what you already have, such as turnover, time-to-fill, engagement scores, training hours or skills inventories. The goal is consistency. Tie each data point back to a business question, such as “How does turnover affect margin?” or “How do skills gaps impact project delivery?”

Step 2: Partner with finance to define key forecasting inputs

HR shouldn’t forecast in a vacuum. Collaborate with finance to identify which workforce signals meaningfully impact revenue, cost or capacity. Agree on shared definitions, data sources and the thresholds that should trigger a conversation.

Step 3: Start small: one metric, one model or one reporting cycle

Pick a single leading indicator, such as voluntary turnover. Build a simple predictive workflow around it and track how that metric moves and signals change. This keeps experimentation manageable and shows value early.

Step 4: Expand as patterns emerge

Once you see reliable relationships between people data and financial results, scale gradually. Add new metrics, automate reporting, incorporate AI and refine your models. Each added layer improves accuracy and strengthens long-term planning.

See the road ahead with workforce intelligence

Forecasting through people data transforms traditional HR metrics into true leading indicators of business performance. When leaders understand how shifts in engagement, turnover, skills and hiring velocity shape operational capacity and financial outcomes, they gain a clearer view of what’s coming next.

With an integrated perspective across workforce, payroll and financial data, ADP empowers leaders to make smarter, more confident forecasting decisions.

Learn how ADP helps businesses connect people analytics with profit prediction.

Donald Trump quietly pardoned on Tuesday a sports and entertainment executive, Tim Leiweke, who was indicted by the president’s own justice department this year.

Leiweke, who co-founded Oak View Group, was indicted in July for what federal prosecutors alleged was his role in “orchestrating a conspiracy to rig the bidding process for an arena at a public university in Austin, Texas”.

Leiweke had pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiracy to restrict trade and was due to stand trial next year.

According to a copy of the pardon posted on a justice department website on Wednesday, Trump signed “a full and unconditional pardon” for Leiweke on Tuesday.

The office of the pardon attorney posted the pardon on its website on Wednesday, the fifth Trump granted in the past week to powerful people, with no explanation as to why he had terminated a corruption case brought by prosecutors who work for him.

“As outlined in the indictment, the Defendant rigged a bidding process to benefit his own company and deprived a public university and taxpayers of the benefits of competitive bidding,” assistant attorney general Abigail Slater of the justice department’s antitrust division said in July. “The Antitrust Division and its law enforcement partners will continue to hold executives who cheat to avoid competition accountable.”

“Unfair business practices, like those employed here, make it very difficult for the American people to pursue prosperity like our founders intended,” Justin Simmons, the US attorney for the western district of Texas said in July. Simmons was appointed interim US attorney for that office by Trump’s attorney general, Pam Bondi, in June.

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“I do not have the words to adequately convey my profound gratitude to President Trump,” Leiweke said in a statement to Sports Business Journal on Wednesday. “This has been a long and difficult journey for my wife, my daughter, and me. The President has given us a new lease on life with which we will be grateful and good stewards.”