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The US high yield bond market is on track for its busiest year since 2021 after posting double-digit gains in year-on-year issuance through the first nine months of 2025.

In comparison, high yield markets in Europe and APAC (excl. Japan) were more muted. European issuance declined marginally through the first three quarters of 2025, while APAC (excl. Japan) recorded only a small year-on-year gain.

The US market has delivered strong issuance performance throughout the year despite a pronounced dip in April, when US tariff announcements caused monthly issuance to drop by more than half compared to March’s figures, according to Debtwire.

The market has recovered steadily since then, with September generating the highest monthly issuance figures in the first three quarters of 2025. For the year, total issuance through the first three quarters stands at US$226.15 billion—14.4% higher than the corresponding period in 2024.

Developments in monetary policy have greatly influenced issuance in key markets. In the US, expectations of interest rate cuts—the Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point in September; its first cut of 2025—encouraged debt issuers to accelerate maturity extensions, spurring considerable refinancing activity. Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Central Bank has held rates steady since its last cut in June. As a result, conditions have been more stable, contributing to more measured issuance levels overall.

In fact, the European market decelerated after a very active Q2—issuance in Q3 dropped by 40.4% compared to the prior quarter. Overall, this dragged down total issuance for the year to US$110.5 billion, a 2.2% drop compared to Q1 to Q3 2024.

In APAC (excl. Japan), an active Q1 anchored a 5.3% gain in year-on-year issuance—reaching US$11.7 billion through the first nine months of 2025—though Q2 and Q3 were considerably quieter. Nevertheless, the region is on track to at least match the US$14.7 billion of total issuance logged in 2024.

Refinancing drives US activity

Refinancing has been the single biggest driver of issuance activity in the US. Stable pricing is giving borrowers the comfort to come to market, refinance existing facilities, and extend maturities.

US refinancing activity totaled US$154.5 billion through the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 68.3% of overall issuance so far this year. While yields did spike in April, they have subsequently tightened. The average yield to maturity in Q3 2025 stood at 7.2%, the lowest level recorded since early 2022, according to Debtwire.

However, despite a solid year for US high yield activity so far in 2025, the market could soon feel a shift in investor risk appetite.

Bloomberg reports that the spreads between US investment and non-investment grade bonds widened during the first week of November, while the performance of the lowest-rated triple-C bonds has underperformed compared to the overall market. This points to a more risk-averse position among investors, who are leaning more toward safer, investment-grade notes.

Credit quality shapes European market

As in the US, European high yield issuance has also been led by refinancing activity, reaching US$70.6 billion through the first three quarters of 2025, or almost two-thirds (63.9%) of total issuance for the year. The bulk of this activity arose in Q2, when early-year rate cuts by the ECB provided a favorable window for dealmaking.

Average yields have also followed a pattern of moderate tightening, with overall yields to maturity averaging 5.76% by September 2025—the lowest yields for the past 12 months, according to Debtwire.

However, a pricing delta is opening between higher-rated and lower-rated high yield bonds. Debtwire figures show that the yields on double-B-rated bonds averaged 5.2% in Q3 2025, the tightest in three and a half years, whereas the average yields on lower-rated B high yield notes have increased in each quarter in 2025 to reach 7.59% in Q3 2025.

APAC outperforms

As has been the case elsewhere, refinancing has been the dominant contributor to APAC (excl. Japan) high yield issuance in 2025—even more so than in the US and Europe.

Refinancing in the region totaled US$9.5 billion through the first three quarters of the year, accounting for more than 80% of total high yield issuance in APAC (excl. Japan).

Refinancing figures for the region are already well ahead of the full-year totals recorded in both 2024 (US$8.9 billion) and 2023 (US$3.9 billion), although still far off the figures posted pre-pandemic.

Shifts in US trade policy throughout 2025 have put a dent in investor confidence and inhibited issuer appetite for capital-raising across APAC’s export-focused economies. However, following the US-China trade summit in October, tensions have eased somewhat, which could benefit capital markets activity.

Despite tariff-related challenges and uncertainty, Asian high yield bonds have performed well for investors, with asset manager Invesco noting that the asset class has outperformed its counterparts in Europe and the US on returns.

The market has also continued to show signs of stability following a period of concern in China’s real estate sector, which led to several high-profile defaults of large, repeat high yield issuers. Although the industry is continuing to work through a period of restructuring to establish more stable capital structures, it is now on a firmer footing.

Meanwhile, in the non-real estate space, defaults have been negligible. Issuers are proactively pushing out maturity profiles and deepening their liquidity pools, presenting investors with an attractive risk-reward proposition.

The global high yield market is positioned for a strong end to 2025, due in large part to the remarkable performance of US issuers. Refinancing remains the principal driver across all regions, as attractive yields and stable pricing bring borrowers to the market. With investors focusing even more intently on higher-rated credit quality, the stage seems set for a more predictable 2026, although unexpected rate actions by central banks in the key markets may have significant impacts on the activity levels.