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None of those previous episodes, though, have prepared traders for the speed and scale of the past few weeks, in a reversal that was sharper than expected even if it lacked the systemic stress of prior crashes.

Friday’s drop sent Bitcoin to a low near $80,500, putting it on track for its worst month since Terra’s $60 billion collapse in 2022 set off the bankruptcies that ended in FTX. Altogether, some half a trillion dollars in Bitcoin value has been wiped out. And that’s before tallying the carnage across the altcoin complex. 

Bitcoin is still comfortably up since President Donald Trump’s November victory, but much of the heady run has vanished in his first year back in office, the very stretch he hailed as crypto’s golden age. Most of the losses remain on paper. But for the first time since exchange-traded funds helped bring Wall Street and retail into the market, those positions are under pressure.

The spark this time around is harder to spot. These new ETFs didn’t exist during the last big crypto crash. Investors have pulled billions from the 12 Bitcoin-linked funds this month, Bloomberg data show, with past buyers including Harvard’s endowment and several hedge funds.

The slew of digital-asset treasury companies — publicly traded crypto holding vehicles, inspired by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. — have seen even steeper outflows as investors question the value of corporate shells built solely to hold tokens.

What’s clear is that crypto has become much bigger than the retail traders and techno futurists who are committed to HODLing through thick and thin. Now it has become woven into the fabric of Wall Street and the broader public markets, bringing a whole new set of finicky players to the table. 

“What’s happened these last two months was like rocket fuel, as if people were expecting this to crash,” said Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper Technologies Ltd. “That’s what institutional investors do. They’re not there to hold, they don’t have that mentality. They rebalance their portfolio.”

Bitcoin remains up roughly 50% from its pre-election low. And the scale of this pullback still pales next to its 75% collapse during the 2021–2022 bear market. That hints at how much deeper the pain could still go. Back then, each leg down exposed another major player — from Celsius to BlockFi to Three Arrows.

Flash Crash 

But with no obvious blowups or scandals this time, some traders think the current drop is more about technicals and confidence than systemic cracks.

“We aren’t following the same path down; overall macro conditions, government support, and fewer bad actors in the space make today’s market more resilient,” said Luke Youngblood, founder of lending platform Moonwell. “The foundations crypto is building on are stronger, even if there are causes for concern down the line.”

The clearest catalyst was a flash crash on Oct. 10 in which $19 billion of crypto bets were liquidated in a matter of hours. The event exposed the chronic lack of liquidity during weekend trading — the flipside to crypto’s famed 24-7 trading schedule — as well as a build-up of excessive leverage on certain exchanges, knocking Bitcoin from the all-time high of $126,251 that it had reached just days earlier. 

“To some extent, we believe a lot of the decline in crypto markets is due to what happened on 10/10,” Brett Knoblauch and Gareth Gacetta, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., wrote in a Thursday note. “It feels as if some big players in the space are being forced to sell, as what happened on 10/10 might have had a far-larger impact on balance sheets than initially thought.”

The problem hasn’t quite died out yet either. Liquidity in crypto markets remains low, with market makers weakened by the crash unable to step in and support prices. Around $1.6 billion in bets were liquidated across exchanges on Friday, according to Coinglass data, as the latest drop hit leveraged traders.

Bitcoin’s gold-like mystique — always a big stretch — has faded. Gold has held its ground. Crypto remains a proxy for fast-twitch risk appetite — and it’s reacting faster than the market around it.

This week, Bitcoin got caught up in topsy-turvy trading in technology stocks, with the token’s volatility being pointed to as both the cause and effect of equities turmoil. On Thursday, for example, the S&P 500 rose early in the day, bolstered by strong earnings from Nvidia Corp., before suffering its biggest intraday reversal since the April tariff turmoil. 

Analysts at Nomura blamed crypto, among other causes. Bill Ackman floated an unusual link — suggesting Fannie and Freddie holdings were behaving like a crypto proxy.

Crypto’s fate is now tied to AI-fueled market optimism. With bubble chatter building, it won’t take much to spook investors into selling. There are also plenty of dangers lurking within the crypto ecosystem. The Saylor copycats have been built on the belief that a public company that does nothing but hold crypto can be worth more than the value of the tokens it holds. 

The push to repurpose public firms into crypto treasuries has endured to this point in the downturn — echoing the overleveraged lenders of 2022. If confidence cracks, forced selling could follow. Many are already underwater on their token holdings.

“When you’ve got a medical device company or a cancer research firm rebranding as a crypto treasury, it’s a sign of where you are in the cycle,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, senior research analyst at blockchain data firm Kaiko. 

Overall, any positive vibes left in the industry appear to be hurtling toward rock bottom. The Fear and Greed index — a tool that measures sentiment in crypto markets — sat at a score of 11 out of 100 on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s deep in “extreme fear” territory. 

“Fear sentiment has spiked to relative highs while structural demand for spot remains notably absent, leaving the market without the natural buyers typically present during significant corrections,” said Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, a firm specializing in decentralized finance.

• If you have ever wondered whether Carrier Global is truly a bargain or just another name in the headlines, you’re in the right place.

• The stock has seen notable movement lately, dropping 3.1% over the past week and 9.4% for the month, with a year-to-date return of -23.3% and down 31.0% in the last year. Yet, if you zoom out, it is still up more than 48% over five years.

• Recently, Carrier Global has made headlines with its strategic expansion into sustainable building solutions, catching the attention of both industry watchers and environmentally conscious investors. Developments like these could reshape the growth narrative and have contributed to recent volatility in the share price.

• Based on our current assessment, Carrier Global scores a 4 out of 6 on key valuation checks, suggesting there are several signals it might be undervalued. We will break down these valuation methods and explore a smarter way to approach fair value throughout the rest of the article.

Find out why Carrier Global’s -31.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This approach helps investors determine whether the current stock price reflects the real worth of the business based on its ability to generate cash over time.

For Carrier Global, current Free Cash Flow stands at $1.13 Billion. According to analyst forecasts, Free Cash Flow is expected to grow and reach $3.09 Billion by 2028. Beyond the analyst estimates, projections are extrapolated and indicate continued healthy increases in future cash flows throughout the next decade.

Applying the DCF approach, Carrier Global’s estimated fair value is $68.13 per share. This suggests the stock is trading at a 23.1% discount to its intrinsic value based on current forecasts.

Carrier Global currently appears undervalued by the market. This may indicate a potential opportunity for investors looking for growth and value in the building solutions sector.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Carrier Global is undervalued by 23.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 926 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carrier Global.

For profitable companies like Carrier Global, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely preferred valuation metric. It offers a snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s earnings, making it a fast and useful measure for companies with consistent profits.

It is important to remember that what counts as a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio is not universal. Growth expectations and risk levels can drive meaningful differences. Rapidly growing companies or those perceived as safer often command higher PE ratios, while slower-growing or riskier companies tend to have lower ones.

Carrier Global currently trades at a PE ratio of 32x. This is higher than the Building industry average of 17.3x and above the selected peer average of 28.1x. On the surface, this could suggest that Carrier Global is priced at a premium compared to many of its direct competitors.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” helps place this in context. Rather than just comparing Carrier Global to peers or industry norms, the Fair Ratio weighs factors such as expected growth, profit margins, company size, and business model risks. In Carrier Global’s case, the Fair Ratio is 38.6x, reflecting these company-specific dynamics.

Because Carrier Global’s current PE of 32x is below its Fair Ratio of 38.6x, this suggests the stock is undervalued on a relative basis, even if it looks expensive next to industry and peer averages. The Fair Ratio method gives a more accurate picture, as it is tailored to Carrier’s unique situation rather than broad benchmarks.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1430 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives.

A Narrative is a simple, approachable way to tell the story behind a company’s numbers, showing how your expectations for Carrier Global’s future revenue, earnings, and profit margins shape your view of its fair value.

Rather than just focusing on the raw financial data, Narratives help you connect the dots between a company’s real-world developments, your personal perspective on where it is headed, and what you think the shares are truly worth.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, which is home to millions of investors worldwide, you can explore or create these dynamic Narratives yourself. Narratives are designed to make investing easier by letting you visualize how financial forecasts, news, and new earnings reports instantly update the share’s fair value, allowing you to make smarter buy and sell decisions as the facts change.

For instance, within Carrier Global’s Narratives, some investors with a bullish outlook see fair value as high as $100 per share, while more cautious users set their estimates closer to $65, demonstrating how Narratives help capture different viewpoints, investment theses, and risk tolerances with full transparency.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Carrier Global? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CARR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• Thinking about whether Amer Sports is a bargain or overpriced? You are not alone, and the answer might surprise you!

• The stock has surged lately, climbing 12.2% over the past week, 7.2% in the last month, and is up 40.2% for the year so far.

• Much of this action is tied to renewed interest in sportswear brands and several high-profile retail partnerships that have grabbed investor attention. These recent news stories are fueling expectations for stronger demand and have changed how traders are approaching Amer Sports’ stock.

• The company currently scores 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checklist, which means there is plenty to discuss about how we assess its value. We will walk through the common valuation methods, then reveal a different way to get the full picture at the end of this article.

Amer Sports scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model works by estimating a company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value. This process provides an intrinsic value for the stock. For Amer Sports, this method relies on both analyst forecasts and advanced extrapolations for years beyond typical coverage.

Amer Sports is currently generating $254.13 million in Free Cash Flow. Analysts project this number to reach about $732.5 million by the end of 2029, with estimates for 2026 through 2029 ranging from approximately $462.67 million to $828 million. Beyond those years, projections are calculated based on historical trends and expected stability.

Using these projections, the DCF model estimates Amer Sports’ intrinsic value at $16.86 per share. With the stock trading much higher, this means the current share price is 102% above its estimated fair value. This suggests the stock is significantly overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amer Sports may be overvalued by 102.0%. Discover 926 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Amer Sports.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used method for assessing the value of profitable companies like Amer Sports. It reflects how much investors are willing to pay today for a dollar of current earnings, making it a useful shorthand for gauging market expectations and relative value.

A “normal” or “fair” PE ratio varies widely depending on a company’s growth prospects and perceived risks. Fast-growing or lower-risk companies typically command higher PE ratios, while slower-growing or riskier ones are valued at lower multiples.

At present, Amer Sports trades at a PE ratio of 60.68x. For context, this is significantly higher than both the luxury industry average of 19.66x and the average of its direct peers, which is 32.55x. By these traditional yardsticks, the company appears richly valued.

However, Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” is designed to capture much more nuance. It combines factors like Amer Sports’ projected earnings growth, profit margins, its position within the market, and company-specific risks, offering a tailored benchmark. In this case, the Fair Ratio for Amer Sports is 26.17x, which more accurately reflects what a multiple should be for this specific company right now.

This means Amer Sports’ actual PE ratio is more than double its Fair Ratio, suggesting that, despite growth optimism and industry momentum, the stock is trading at a clear premium to its fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1430 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal story for a company, where you set your own estimates for future revenue, earnings, and profit margins, and use them to calculate what you think is a fair value for the stock based on your expectations.

Narratives work by connecting a company’s business outlook with concrete financial forecasts, then linking those projections to a calculated fair value. This approach puts you in the driver’s seat, letting your unique perspective shape what you believe the stock is truly worth. Narratives are available right now on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors to share, debate, and learn from each other’s views.

This tool makes investing more actionable; by comparing your Narrative Fair Value with today’s share price, you can clearly see for yourself whether you think Amer Sports is a buy, a hold, or a sell. Plus, Narratives automatically respond to new developments. When news or fresh earnings hit, your calculations update in real time so you never fall behind.

For example, recent Narratives about Amer Sports set fair values as high as $52 if you expect explosive earnings growth led by premium brand expansion, or as low as $34 if you’re more cautious about long-term risks and competition. This shows how your story and your numbers can be entirely your own.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Amer Sports? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AS.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• In the past week, Kraft Heinz unveiled plans to break up its business into two separate entities and launched new product initiatives including Heinz Leftover Gravy in the US and Heinz Ketchup Zero in Dubai, aiming to attract millennial hosts and health-conscious consumers.

• This restructuring marks a major shift in Kraft Heinz’s approach, as the company seeks to revive growth and unlock greater shareholder value amid evolving consumer preferences and changing holiday traditions.

• We’ll explore how Kraft Heinz’s planned business separation could reshape the investment outlook, especially regarding future growth initiatives and cash flow priorities.

The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 26 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

To be a Kraft Heinz shareholder today, you need confidence that the upcoming business separation can unlock value while stabilizing core North American revenues in the face of persistent volume declines. The recent announcement broadly supports the company’s push for relevance, but the restructuring itself remains the biggest short-term catalyst and source of risk, new product launches alone are unlikely to materially shift this calculus in the immediate future.

Among recent product initiatives, the launch of Heinz Ketchup Zero in Dubai stands out. This move directly ties into Kraft Heinz’s ongoing focus on health-conscious innovation, a potential catalyst as health and wellness trends influence consumer choices and could impact the company’s future revenue mix.

Yet, it’s important to recognize that unlike the promise of new products, the risk of execution missteps and cost pressures tied to the business separation represents information that investors should be aware of…

Read the full narrative on Kraft Heinz (it’s free!)

Kraft Heinz’s outlook forecasts $26.1 billion in revenue and $3.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This assumes a yearly revenue growth rate of 1.0% and a $8.6 billion increase in earnings from the current -$5.3 billion.

Uncover how Kraft Heinz’s forecasts yield a $27.13 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Fair value estimates from 22 Simply Wall St Community members range from US$23.95 to US$68.79, showing wide disagreement about Kraft Heinz’s true worth. Many are watching whether innovation can meaningfully offset weak core market performance, making it valuable to explore several alternative viewpoints.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Kraft Heinz – why the stock might be worth 5% less than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don’t miss this chance:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include KHC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com