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Canada’s economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity, data shows, even as business investments and household consumption disappointed due to the lingering uncertainty over United States tariffs.

Third-quarter annualised gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.6 percent, Statistics Canada said on Friday, escaping what could have been a technical recession after a contraction in the previous quarter of a downwardly revised 1.8 percent.

The data strengthened economists’ view that the Bank of Canada will not cut interest rates on December 10.

The quarterly GDP reading is calculated based on income and expenditure, unlike the monthly GDP, which is derived from industrial output.

The statistics agency said the third-quarter number could be subjected to a larger-than-normal revision in February because foreign merchandise trade data was not available due to the recent US government shutdown.

Analysts polled by the Reuters news agency had forecast annualised growth of 0.5 percent in the third quarter and monthly GDP growth of 0.2 percent in September.

On a month-over-month basis, the economy matched analysts’ predictions following a deceleration of an upwardly revised 0.1 percent in the prior month, StatsCan said, primarily driven by a 1.6 percent expansion in manufacturing output.

However, an advance estimate showed GDP might decline by 0.3 percent in October, signalling a negative start to the fourth quarter.

“Headline growth was flattered by a large drop in imports which masked underlying weakness in domestic demand as households and businesses spent less,” Tony Stillo, head of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics, and senior economist Michael Davenport, said in comments emailed to Al Jazeera.

“We still think the Canadian economy is in a fragile position and expect it will struggle to grow in the near term amid US tariffs, elevated trade policy uncertainty, and much slower population growth.”

Tariff hit

US tariffs on critical sectors have hit Canadian exports hard. They have resulted in job losses, dampened hiring and subdued business and consumer sentiment, leading to forecasts of a near-recessionary environment.

But a 6.7 percent increase in crude oil and bitumen exports, along with a 2.9 percent increase in government capital investments, helped cushion some of the impact, and higher crude oil exports also helped boost corporate income in the third quarter, StatsCan’s data showed.

An increase in spending on weapon systems and nonresidential structures, such as hospitals, led the jump in government investments.

A rise in residential resale activity and renovations also helped.

The report “should quash recession chatter for now”, Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

The Bank of Canada said last month that it will keep its key interest rate on hold at 2.25 percent and take action only when there is a significant change in the economic outlook.

The underlying impact of tariffs, however, continues to be reflected in business and consumer sentiment, the GDP data showed.

Business capital investment was unchanged in the third quarter, and household final consumption expenditure dropped 0.1 percent.

New residential construction also declined 0.8 percent in the period, StatsCan added.

“Overall final domestic demand was flat in Q3, so the stronger-than-expected rebound in headline GDP more so reflects a mathematical boost from falling imports rather than underlying economic strength,” warned Stillo and Davenport.

Accelerating a Great Australian Family Story

One of Australia’s premium charcoal chicken brands, El Jannah, today announced a  bold national expansion strategy to quadruple its number of restaurants from 50 to  almost 200 in the coming years. 

From a humble charcoal chicken shop opened by Lebanese migrant couple Andre and  Carole Estephan in Western Sydney in 1998, El Jannah has quickly developed into an  Australian cultural institution. 

Serving charcoal-grilled chicken platters with family hospitality and warmth, El Jannah  has built a loyal and growing base of customers across Australia, with a reputation for  serving fresh, high-quality and affordable food. 

Since 2020, El Jannah has grown its number of restaurants from five to 50, with 160,000  transactions occuring every week across Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Wollongong  and the Southern Highlands. 

Mr Estephan said his dream was for millions of Australians to be able to enjoy El  Jannah’s unique Middle Eastern chicken offering for the first time. 

“From the day Carole and I opened our first restaurant in Granville, our dream was  simple — to share the flavours and hospitality we grew up with in Lebanon,” he said. 

“We built El Jannah with our family for Australian families. We now want to carry that  dream into its next generation, while keeping our culture, values and identity exactly  where they belong — at the heart of the business. 

“Our dream is to offer our customers more locations and more convenience, allowing  more people to discover the brand Australians already love. We want to share our authentic flavours and recipes, our renowned service reflecting Lebanese warmth and  our cultural soul that has defined us from the beginning.” 

As part of its next growth chapter, El Jannah intends to open more than 25 restaurants in  the following locations in the next 12 months: 

• NSW – Cranebrook, Cronulla, Emerald Hills, Maroubra, North Rocks, Ropes  Crossing, Rozelle, Rutherford (Hunter Valley), Sydney CBD and Warringah Mall.
• Victoria – Armstrong Creek, Ashburton, Box Hill, Carrum Downs, Corio,  Cranbourne East, Cranbourne West, Hawthorn, Ivanhoe, Lilydale, Roxburgh  Park, South Yarra, Sunbury, Wollert and Wyndam Vale. 
• ACT – Woden. 

The brand’s future growth is being made possible because of a significant investment  from General Atlantic, a leading global investor.  

Founded in 1980, General Atlantic specialises in partnering with innovative businesses  around the world. General Atlantic has a strong track record of supporting founders and  management teams to accelerate growth, including through domestic and international  expansion and development of digital capabilities. 

General Atlantic has invested in a range of high-growth food and beverage companies  globally, including Joe & The Juice, as well as distinguished Australian brand  Zimmermann. 

El Jannah CEO Brett Houldin will continue to lead the business, supported by the  Estephan family and General Atlantic. 

Mr Houldin said the company’s signature charcoal chicken, its unmistakable garlic  sauce, and the warmth of Lebanese family hospitality were part of its soul and DNA  created by the Estephans. 

“Our partnership with GA means we can explore selective international expansion for  the first time, including the possibility of exporting our unique Australian-Middle Eastern  flavour profile back to the Middle East, and into other high-potential markets,” he said. 

“That will be the ultimate proof of the Australian migrant success story. We are  committed to preserving the soul of the brand the Estephan family built, while  accelerating our next phase of growth. With General Atlantic beside us, we are  positioned to grow our Australian footprint, deepen our digital and guest experience  capability, and explore selective international opportunities.” 

Neal Kok, Managing Director and Head of Southeast Asia & Australia at General Atlantic, said: “El Jannah is one of the most distinctive and exciting restaurant offerings we have  seen in Australia. Its combination of authentic food and amazing community following  are core to what has made it an incredible success. We are privileged to support the business in its next leg of expansion and proud to partner with Brett and the Estephan  family as they bring El Jannah to more communities across Australia and, in time,  internationally.” 

Media enquiries: 

El Jannah  

Adam Connolly, Apollo Communications, +61 (0)417 710 084 

General Atlantic 

Jess Gill [email protected]
Scott Schuberg [email protected]
Jonathan Buxeda [email protected] 

About El Jannah 

El Jannah is a family-owned Lebanese-Australian restaurant brand renowned for its  legendary charcoal chicken and famous garlic sauce. Founded in 1998 in Granville,  Sydney, by Andre and Carole Estephan, the business has grown from a humble  neighbourhood eatery in western Sydney into one of Australia’s most beloved restaurant  brands. Today, El Jannah is celebrated for its Lebanese hospitality with generous  portions, fresh ingredients, and commitment to bringing people together over authentic,  shareable food. With 50 locations expanding across the country, El Jannah continues to  uphold its family values and heritage while delivering a unique dining experience to  generations of loyal fans. 

About General Atlantic 

General Atlantic is a leading global investor with more than four and a half decades of  experience providing capital and strategic support for over 830 companies throughout  its history. Established in 1980, General Atlantic continues to be a dedicated partner to  visionary founders and investors seeking to build dynamic businesses and create long term value. Guided by the conviction that entrepreneurs can be incredible agents of  transformational change, the firm combines a collaborative global approach, sector specific expertise, a long-term investment horizon, and a deep understanding of growth  drivers to partner with and scale innovative businesses around the world. The firm  leverages its patient capital, operational expertise, and global platform to support a  diversified investment platform spanning Growth Equity, Credit, Climate, and  Sustainable Infrastructure strategies. General Atlantic manages approximately $118 billion in assets under management, inclusive of all strategies, as of September 30,  2025, with more than 900 professionals in 20 countries across five regions. For more  information on General Atlantic, please visit: www.generalatlantic.com.