Category: 3. Business

  • Looking at the Narrative for Bilibili After Recent Upswing in Gaming and Advertising Momentum

    Looking at the Narrative for Bilibili After Recent Upswing in Gaming and Advertising Momentum

    Bilibili’s consensus analyst price target has recently inched up from $28.51 to $28.85, reflecting a slight uptick in market optimism. This adjustment comes as analysts weigh both the strong performance of Bilibili’s games segment and continued growth in advertising, while also considering some short-term concerns around gaming revenue and comparables. Stay tuned to discover key factors driving these expectations and how to monitor the evolving outlook for Bilibili.

    Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Bilibili.

    Recent analyst commentary on Bilibili reveals a mix of constructive optimism and noteworthy caution, with price targets moving both upward and downward in response to the company’s latest developments. The following summarizes key takeaways from recent research coverage.

    🐂 Bullish Takeaways

    • Bernstein raised its price target to $32 from $28. The firm highlighted a positive reaction to strong sales data from the launch of the new game Escape From Duckov. Bernstein notes this marks the start of a potential up-cycle in Bilibili’s games business and points to better-than-expected performance along with upcoming catalysts from game releases and billing updates.

    • Jefferies continues to see long-term margin improvement and emphasized that Q2 revenue met expectations while operating profit exceeded forecasts due to effective cost control, specifically lower-than-expected selling and marketing expenses. The firm expects advertising momentum to remain robust into the second half, supporting optimism around Bilibili’s operating execution.

    • Benchmark maintains a constructive long-term view and points to sustained healthy user engagement and monetization, even amidst near-term softness in games and value-added services. The rating remains Buy despite short-term headwinds.

    🐻 Bearish Takeaways

    • Morgan Stanley raised its price target slightly to $22 from $21 but maintains a neutral stance. The firm observes that ongoing ad growth is being offset by a notable decline in games revenue and describes the current valuation as largely fair, implying limited near-term upside.

    • Benchmark lowered its price target to $28 from $30 and cites expectations for a decline in near-term game revenue driven by a challenging year-over-year comparison. Despite an overall constructive outlook, this underscores analyst concerns about upcoming growth headwinds in the games segment.

    • Jefferies cut its price target slightly to $28 from $29, mentioning the base effect of last year’s performance but reaffirms belief in improving long-term margins. This tempered price target signals some recognition of near-term risks.

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  • UK probes whether buses made in China can be turned off from afar

    UK probes whether buses made in China can be turned off from afar

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    The UK government is investigating whether hundreds of Chinese-made electric buses on British roads could be remotely deactivated, in the latest sign of concern about Beijing’s role in the country’s infrastructure. 

    Transport officials are working with the National Cyber Security Centre to assess whether Yutong, the world’s biggest bus maker, has remote access to the vehicles’ control systems for software updates and diagnostics.

    The probe follows an investigation in Norway that found Yutong buses could be “stopped or rendered inoperable” by the Zhengzhou-based company. Those findings have also prompted Denmark to launch its own review.

    Yutong has supplied about 700 buses to the UK market, primarily in Nottingham, south Wales and Glasgow, operated by groups including Stagecoach and FirstBus.

    The company is hoping to sell more vehicles in London, where it has developed a double-decker electric bus that meets the standards of Transport for London.

    The Department for Transport said: “We are looking into the case and working closely with the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre to understand the technical basis for the actions taken by the Norwegian and Danish authorities.”

    Workers assemble a bus in Yutong’s factory in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China © Li Chaoqing/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

    TfL said that none of its operators used Yutong buses or had ordered any, adding: “Any buses entering service in London have to meet our robust technical requirements, including rigorous testing.”

    Yutong told the Sunday Times newspaper that it “strictly complies with the applicable laws, regulations and industry standards of the locations where its vehicles operate”.

    It added: “This data is used solely for vehicle-related maintenance, optimisation and improvement to meet customers’ aftersales service needs. The data is protected by storage encryption and access control measures. No one is allowed to access or view this data without customer authorisation. Yutong strictly complies with the EU’s data protection laws and regulations.”

    Yutong did not immediately respond to a request for further comment on Sunday.

    Ruter, Oslo’s public transport company, said last month that it had tested a new bus from Yutong and a three-year-old one from Dutch manufacturer VDL in an underground mine to check whether it could be hacked or used for intelligence purposes.

    The Chinese company had remote access to its bus including the battery and power supply management system, Ruter found. The VDL bus did not have the same remote access.

    “In theory, the [Yutong] bus could therefore be stopped or rendered inoperable by the manufacturer,” Ruter added.

    Ruter said it could retain local control over the Chinese bus by removing its sim card as all connectivity passed through it.

    Denmark’s largest public transport company, Movia, has said it too is investigating the risks, but underscored that the issue was not specific to Chinese buses, being common to many electric vehicles — including those made in western countries — whose software can be updated remotely.

    The UK’s relationship with China has become tense, however, making any such vulnerabilities politically sensitive at a time when politicians have been debating whether or not Beijing is an “enemy” or a “threat”. 

    Euan Stainbank, Labour MP for Falkirk, has urged UK ministers to assess the risks from electric buses made in China.

    “It is becoming increasingly clear that there is potential for the quantity of Chinese-manufactured electric buses on UK roads to represent a national security risk, as suppliers could be able to remotely access and exploit vehicles’ control systems while in transit,” he said.

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  • Can Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) NVIDIA Partnership Reshape Its Edge in Quantum-AI Integration?

    Can Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) NVIDIA Partnership Reshape Its Edge in Quantum-AI Integration?

    • Rigetti Computing recently announced its collaboration with NVIDIA to support NVQLink, an open platform enabling integration of AI supercomputing with quantum processors, and showcased this partnership at NVIDIA GTC in Washington, D.C.

    • This move not only highlights Rigetti’s technical role in hybrid quantum-classical systems but also signals the growing intersection between quantum computing and advanced AI architectures.

    • We’ll explore how Rigetti’s expansion into hybrid quantum-AI integration could impact its investment narrative and competitive positioning amid rising sector interest.

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    To see Rigetti Computing as a compelling opportunity, I think you have to believe in the long-term future of hybrid quantum and AI systems, not just the promise of quantum hardware itself. The latest partnership with NVIDIA, showcased at GTC, puts Rigetti’s technology at the front of this effort and could reinforce confidence in its relevance within the industry. However, for near-term catalysts, the news is more about strategic positioning than immediate financial impact. While collaborations like NVQLink show Rigetti working closely with leaders in AI, the company remains unprofitable, with high cash burn and ongoing dilution. Key short-term risks, like execution on new contracts, significant volatility, and reliance on government funding, are still very much in play, and recent price declines suggest optimism may be cooling. Recent news gives Rigetti a visibility boost, but it does not materially shift the risk of missed commercial milestones, nor does it address the sector’s long commercialization runway.

    On the flipside, there’s still the question of whether current valuation assumes more than Rigetti can deliver in the near term.

    The valuation report we’ve compiled suggests that Rigetti Computing’s current price could be inflated.

    RGTI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

    The Simply Wall St Community contributed 49 unique fair value estimates, with targets stretching from just US$0.22 up to US$33.50. Such a wide spectrum reflects sharply different calculations of Rigetti’s growth and risk profile, particularly given the company’s substantial recent share price swings. Explore these varying viewpoints for a broader sense of how future catalysts could drive new shifts in sentiment.

    Explore 49 other fair value estimates on Rigetti Computing – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    Right now could be the best entry point. These picks are fresh from our daily scans. Don’t delay:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

    Companies discussed in this article include RGTI.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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  • Apple iPhone Satellite Plans: Image Texting, Third-Party Apps; Low-Cost MacBook

    Apple iPhone Satellite Plans: Image Texting, Third-Party Apps; Low-Cost MacBook

    Apple is planning a series of upgrades to its satellite features for the iPhone and its smartwatches. Also: The company is nearing a $1 billion-a-year deal to power a revamped Siri with a custom Google Gemini model, and Apple is readying the first low-cost MacBook in a bid to compete with Windows laptops.

    Last week in Power On: Apple is set to kick off its 50th anniversary with the first $140 billion quarter.

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  • W&T Offshore (NYSE:WTI) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.01

    W&T Offshore (NYSE:WTI) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.01

    W&T Offshore, Inc. (NYSE:WTI) will pay a dividend of $0.01 on the 26th of November. The dividend yield is 2.0% based on this payment, which is a little bit low compared to the other companies in the industry.

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    It would be nice for the yield to be higher, but we should also check if higher levels of dividend payment would be sustainable. Even in the absence of profits, W&T Offshore is paying a dividend. The company is also yet to generate cash flow, so the dividend sustainability is definitely questionable.

    Analysts expect the EPS to grow by 46.9% over the next 12 months. The company seems to be going down the right path, but it will take a little bit longer than a year to cross over into profitability. Unless this can be done in short order, the dividend might be difficult to sustain.

    NYSE:WTI Historic Dividend November 9th 2025

    Check out our latest analysis for W&T Offshore

    The company has maintained a consistent dividend for a few years now, but we would like to see a longer track record before relying on it. The most recent annual payment of $0.04 is about the same as the annual payment 2 years ago. It’s good to see at least some dividend growth. Yet with a relatively short dividend paying history, we wouldn’t want to depend on this dividend too heavily.

    Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company’s stock based on its dividend history. Unfortunately things aren’t as good as they seem. W&T Offshore’s earnings per share has shrunk at 24% a year over the past five years. This steep decline can indicate that the business is going through a tough time, which could constrain its ability to pay a larger dividend each year in the future. It’s not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months – we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

    Overall, this isn’t a great candidate as an income investment, even though the dividend was stable this year. The company seems to be stretching itself a bit to make such big payments, but it doesn’t appear they can be consistent over time. We don’t think that this is a great candidate to be an income stock.

    Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. To that end, W&T Offshore has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn’t be ignored) we think you should know about. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • Vitalhub Corp. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

    Vitalhub Corp. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

    Vitalhub Corp. (TSE:VHI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.8% to CA$10.22 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues beat expectations by 12% to hit CA$32m, although earnings fell badly short, with Vitalhub reported a statutory loss of CA$0.01 per share even though the analysts had been forecasting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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    TSX:VHI Earnings and Revenue Growth November 9th 2025

    After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Vitalhub are now predicting revenues of CA$127.2m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a major 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 498% to CA$0.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$125.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.28 in 2026. So it looks like there’s been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results – there’s been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

    See our latest analysis for Vitalhub

    It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$15.34, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vitalhub at CA$16.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$15.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Vitalhub is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

    Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Vitalhub’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 34% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vitalhub is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

    The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vitalhub. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

    Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates – from multiple Vitalhub analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

    And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Vitalhub you should know about.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • The past year for John Wiley & Sons (NYSE:WLY) investors has not been profitable

    The past year for John Wiley & Sons (NYSE:WLY) investors has not been profitable

    Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (NYSE:WLY) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 30%. That’s disappointing when you consider the market returned 14%. At least the damage isn’t so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 22% in that time.

    Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they’ve been consistent with returns.

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    To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

    John Wiley & Sons managed to increase earnings per share from a loss to a profit, over the last 12 months.

    When a company has just transitioned to profitability, earnings per share growth is not always the best way to look at the share price action. But we may find different metrics more enlightening.

    In contrast, the 8.5% drop in revenue is a real concern. Many investors see falling revenue as a likely precursor to lower earnings, so this could well explain the weak share price.

    The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

    NYSE:WLY Earnings and Revenue Growth November 9th 2025

    We know that John Wiley & Sons has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think John Wiley & Sons will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

    It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for John Wiley & Sons the TSR over the last 1 year was -27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

    While the broader market gained around 14% in the last year, John Wiley & Sons shareholders lost 27% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for John Wiley & Sons you should know about.

    But note: John Wiley & Sons may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

    Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • Nasdaq Proposes Stricter Initial and Continued Listing Standards

    Nasdaq Proposes Stricter Initial and Continued Listing Standards

    Nasdaq Proposes Changes to Initial and Continued Listing Standards

    The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) recently proposed modifications to its initial and continued listing standards (“Proposed Listing Standards”). The Proposed Listing Standards were submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on September 3, 2025, for review. If approved by the SEC, the Proposed Listing Standards would introduce both increased requirements for minimum company public float and capital raised during initial public offerings and stricter suspension and delisting procedures for companies failing to meet Nasdaq’s continued listings standards.

    Note that if approved, Nasdaq plans to implement the changes to the initial listing requirements promptly, offering a 30-day window for companies already in the listing process to complete the process under the prior standards. Thereafter all new listings will have to meet the new requirements. As discussed further below, a key aspect of the Proposed Listing Standards is the reintroduction of a minimum public offering proceeds requirement specifically for companies principally operating in China. If approved, this could significantly raise the entry barrier for these companies into U.S. capital markets.

    US$15 Million Minimum Market Value of Unrestricted Publicly Held Shares for New Listings

    Nasdaq is proposing to raise the minimum Market Value of Unrestricted Publicly Held Shares (“MVUPHS”) requirement for companies listing under the net income standard on the Nasdaq Global Market and the Nasdaq Capital Market. Unrestricted Publicly Held Shares are shares that are not held by an officer, director or 10% shareholder and that are free of resale restrictions.

    Currently, a company must have a minimum MVUPHS of US$8 million under the income standard for initial listing on the Nasdaq Global Market or a minimum MVUPHS of US$5 million under the net income standard for initial listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market. The Proposed Listing Standards would increase the MVUPHS requirement to US$15 million for companies listing under the net income standard for both the Nasdaq Global Market and the Nasdaq Capital Market.

    As Nasdaq explains in its proposal, the MVUPHS standard is one of the core liquidity requirements of the Nasdaq listing rules. Like the other liquidity requirements, it is meant to ensure there is sufficient liquidity to provide price discovery and support an efficient and orderly market for a company’s securities. However, Nasdaq continues to observe problems with the trading of smaller company listings with low liquidity, including a lack of price discovery and ongoing noncompliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules, and Nasdaq has therefore proposed the increases to the minimum MVUPHS to help address these concerns.

    Accelerated Suspension and Delisting if MVLS Is Less Than US$5 Million

    Nasdaq is also proposing to amend its rules to accelerate the suspension and delisting process for certain noncompliant companies. Specifically, if a company that has a Market Value of Listed Securities (“MVLS”) of less than US$5 million becomes noncompliant with a quantitative continued listing requirement (minimum bid price, MVLS or market value of publicly held shares), it will be subject to immediate suspension and delisting without a compliance period. Based on the noncompliant-companies list disclosed by Nasdaq as of October 27, 2025, 235 Nasdaq-listed companies are currently failing to meet Nasdaq’s continued listing standards.

    Under the current rules, a company listed on Nasdaq that falls out of compliance with quantitative continued listing requirements is typically granted a 180-day grace period to regain compliance. A request for a hearing usually stays the delisting process. The Proposed Listing Standards would eliminate the grace periods for a company whose MVLS has remained below US$5 million for 10 consecutive business days. According to the Proposed Listing Standards, Nasdaq believes it is not appropriate for such a company to continue trading on Nasdaq during the pendency of a hearing and will suspend trading in its securities immediately.

    These rules would take effect 60 days after SEC approval.

    Heightened Listing Standards for China-Based Companies

    Nasdaq is also proposing to adopt new listing requirements for companies headquartered, incorporated or principally administered in China (including Hong Kong and Macau):

    • IPOs: Companies seeking to list on Nasdaq must raise a minimum of US$25 million in public offering proceeds.
    • De-SPAC Transactions: Following a de-SPAC transaction, the company must have a minimum MVUPHS of at least US$25 million.
    • Direct Listings: Companies will be precluded from listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market in connection with a direct listing.
    • Transfers From Other Markets: In the case of a company transferring its listing from the OTC market or from another national securities exchange, the company must have a minimum MVUPHS of at least US$25 million and have traded on the other market for at least one year before it is eligible to list on Nasdaq.

    A company is considered “principally administered in China” if any of the following tests are met:

    1. the company’s books and records are located in China;
    2. at least 50% of the company’s assets are located in China;
    3. at least 50% of the company’s revenues are derived from China;
    4. at least 50% of the company’s directors are citizens of, or reside in, China;
    5. at least 50% of the company’s officers are citizens of, or reside in, China;
    6. at least 50% of the company’s employees are based in China; or
    7. the company is controlled by, or under common control with, one or more persons or entities that are citizens of, reside in or whose business is headquartered, incorporated or principally administered in China.

    These rules would take effect 30 days after SEC approval.

    Takeaways

    Nasdaq’s proposed amendments to its initial and continued listing standards (SR-NASDAQ-2025-068 and SR-NASDAQ-2025-069) remain subject to SEC review and approval, which could take up to 90 days or longer. If adopted, smaller companies, and particularly those based in China, will face higher thresholds to list and maintain their status on Nasdaq.

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  • Catastrophe Bonds Absorb ‘Black Swan’ Event Dealt by Melissa

    Catastrophe Bonds Absorb ‘Black Swan’ Event Dealt by Melissa

    (Bloomberg) — A rare thing is about to happen in the $55 billion market for catastrophe bonds: a trigger event will wipe out 100% of a bond’s principal.

    Jamaica’s $150 million cat bond has been the subject of controversy since it failed to trigger last year after Hurricane Beryl destroyed large parts of the island. The development sparked calls for a fundamental rethink of the suitability of such financial instruments for developing countries on the frontlines of climate change.

    Investors in cat bonds are now hoping that the trigger event forced by Melissa — a massive category 5 hurricane — will finally put such doubts to rest.

    “It’s actually a good thing that this bond pays out,” Dirk Schmelzer, senior fund manager at Plenum Investments AG, a holder of Jamaica’s cat bond, said in an interview. “It shows how cat bond structures can help support countries get back on their feet again.”

    But skepticism toward the instruments persists.

    It took a “black swan” event to trigger the bond, says Jwala Rambarran, a former governor of the central bank of Trinidad and Tobago. “Melissa supersedes everything.”

    Rambarran is the co-author of a report by the Vulnerable Twenty Group, or V20 — a collection of nations most exposed to climate change — that last year called for an in-depth reappraisal of sovereign cat bonds. After Beryl, V20 warned that the bonds were becoming increasingly rigid in their structure, with narrow parameters that were shielding investors without helping poorer populations.

    Catastrophe bonds are used by issuers — mostly insurers but sometimes also governments — to transfer risk to capital markets. Bondholders risk losses if a predefined catastrophe occurs, but also face sizable returns if it doesn’t. Jamaica agreed to pay investors in its bond a floating rate of 7% above US money market rates.

    The last time a weather-related cat bond paid out in full was in connection with Hurricane Ian in 2022. The Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index slipped about 2% that year, but has since delivered record gains. In the three years since Ian, the Swiss Re index has soared 60%.

    Jamaica has what is probably the most robust disaster-financing program of all Caribbean nations. In addition to the $150 million it will get from its cat bond, it can tap $300 million in contingent credit from the Inter-American Development Bank and draw a $92 million payout from a parametric insurance program.

    The insured costs of Hurricane Melissa’s damages to onshore property in Jamaica now range between $2.2 billion and $4.2 billion, according to data firm Verisk Analytics Inc. The actual cost, however, will be much higher with less than 20% of the Caribbean island’s residential properties insured, and a significant share lacking sufficient insurance, according to Verisk.

    The funds being made available to Jamaica via its cat bond and other instruments “will never be enough to do the restoration and even to do the relief work right now,” Dana Morris Dixon, minister of education, skills, youth and information, said in a briefing on Oct. 31.

    At the World Bank, which handled the issuance of Jamaica’s cat bond, Vice President and Treasurer Jorge Familiar said the island’s “comprehensive disaster risk management strategy and proactive approach serve as a model for countries facing similar threats and seeking to strengthen their financial resilience to natural disasters.”

    The payout “underscores the role of catastrophe bonds in effective risk management strategies and their efficiency in transferring disaster risks to capital markets,” he said.

    But Rambarran says that for highly destructive storms such as Beryl, the risk remains that cat bond triggers are “too hard and specific.” He says “we still need to continue to look at their design and strike a balance between providing a return and doing good.”

    Meanwhile, investors exposed to Jamaica’s cat bond are unlikely to suffer any meaningful hits to their portfolios, according to Mara Dobrescu, director of fixed income strategies at Morningstar.

    “No one had a huge amount” of Jamaica’s cat bond in their portfolio, she said. So investors will easily absorb any Melissa-related losses and continue to have “a stand-out year.”

    At Plenum, the expectation is that losses associated with its holding of the Jamaica bond will leave a dent of only 0.23% on one of its two cat bond funds, while the other will be untouched. The asset manager has no plans to scale back its interest in World Bank-backed issuances, Schmelzer said.

    “From an ESG perspective we have a lot of clients who like to see these transactions in the portfolio,” he said. “Losses are losses, but this is a better loss than other ones.”

    Major holders of Jamaica’s catastrophe bond include Stone Ridge Asset Management LLC of New York, UK-based Baillie Gifford & Co., and Schroders, according to data compiled by Morningstar.

    Stone Ridge didn’t respond to requests for comment. Spokespeople for Baillie Gifford and Schroders declined to comment.

    The extent to which vulnerable nations should rely on capital markets to help deal with extreme weather looks set to shape the COP30 talks in Brazil. Such questions also feed into the so-called Baku-to-Belem Roadmap (a reference to Conference of the Parties summits in 2024 and 2025), which seeks to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries.

    A study published in 2024 found that three years after hurricanes hit in the Caribbean basin, debt levels were 18% higher than in a baseline scenario.

    In its statement on Friday, the World Bank said that catastrophe bonds are part of its Crisis Preparedness and Response toolkit “which provides developing countries with an innovative suite of tools to better respond to crises and prepare for future shocks.” The goal is “fast access to cash for emergency response, expanded catastrophe insurance and the option to pause debt service payments in the aftermath of a natural disaster.”

    The extent of the destruction in the case of Hurricane Melissa “is going to be so large that even with the level of pre-arranged financing that Jamaica has, there won’t be enough funds to meet the extent of the loss,” Rambarran said.

    Melissa’s impact on Jamaica “puts us in front of a bigger issue,” he said. “We need a global financial architecture that can support these countries in a deeper way.”

    –With assistance from Lauren Rosenthal, Brian Eckhouse and Alexandre Rajbhandari.

    (Adds World Bank comment in third-to-last paragraph.)

    ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Top Wall Street analysts favor 3 tech stocks for their growth outlook

    Top Wall Street analysts favor 3 tech stocks for their growth outlook

    High valuations for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks were the focus of the market this week, with fears of a potential AI bubble capping investor sentiment. But the view on Wall Street is still that several tech stocks offer strong fundamentals and are delivering rapid, AI-induced growth, justifying their sky-high valuations.

    The recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help investors find attractive AI stocks displaying robust long-term growth outlooks.

    Here are three stocks favored by the Street’s top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

    Amazon

    E-commerce and cloud computing giant Amazon (AMZN) recently impressed investors with its upbeat Q3 results. Accelerating growth in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud unit confirmed the Street’s faith in Amazon’s expansion into artificial intelligence.

    In reaction to the solid Q3 print and the recently-announced deal with OpenAI, Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley increased his price forecast for Amazon to $315 from $300 and reiterated a buy rating. TipRanks’ AI Analyst is also bullish on AMZN stock, with an “outperform” rating and a price target of $276.

    Walmsley said that the Q3 performance, OpenAI deal and positive outlook for Amazon’s Trainium chips made him more optimistic toward AWS’s long-term growth. In fact, the 5-star analyst expects acceleration in AWS revenue growth from 20% in Q3 to 21% in Q4 2025 and 22% in the first quarter of 2026. He expects AWS revenue to rise by 23% to $157 billion in the full year 2026, followed by a 22% increase to $192 billion in 2027 — above the Street’s expectations of $154 billion and $185 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

    “We believe investors continue to rotate into AMZN shares given a valuation well below its historic ranges and positive news likely to continue into the AWS ReInvent Conference in early December,” said Walmsley.

    The analyst’s bullish investment thesis is also based on the cost-to-serve improvements in Amazon’s retail business, driven by automation in fulfillment centers and an enhanced logistics network.

    Walmsley ranks No. 103 among more than 10,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 64% of the time, delivering an average return of 27.5%. See Amazon Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks.

    Alphabet

    This second stock pick is Google- and YouTube owner Alphabet (GOOGL). The company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with AI driving solid momentum in its cloud business.

    Impressed by the Q3 performance, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised his price target for Alphabet to $340 from $300 and reaffirmed a buy rating. In comparison, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has a price target of $316 with an “outperform” rating on GOOGL.

    Anmuth highlighted that Q3 marked the first time that Alphabet’s quarterly revenue crossed the $100 billion mark. The top-rated analyst noted Alphabet’s robust performance in the third quarter, with double-digit growth across every major business.

    Interestingly, Anmuth believes that Q3 results and favorable insights on AI search formats could change investors’ views toward Google’s AI search transition. Alphabet noted AI-induced acceleration in query growth and paid clicks, while Anmuth noted that industry conversations indicate that paid clicks using Google’s AI Overviews (AIO) and AI Mode (AIM) features are driving higher conversion rates.

    “Overall, the AI search transition has been viewed as the greatest risk to Google, but additional signs that AI search is more opportunity than threat will continue to flip the narrative,” said Anmuth.

    The analyst is also encouraged by the surge in Google Cloud’s backlog to $155 billion. He contends that the figure doesn’t include all the gains from the recently announced expansion of GOOGL’s partnership with Anthropic, implying a further increase in the backlog at the end of the fourth quarter. Overall, Anmuth is confident about Alphabet’s prospects and said it remains JPMorgan’s Top 2 idea, behind only Amazon.

    Anmuth ranks No. 113 among more than 10,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 63% of the time, delivering an average return of 22%. See Alphabet Ownership Structure on TipRanks.

    Advanced Micro Devices

    The third tech giant this week is chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which delivered strong results in the third quarter of Fiscal 2025. AMD attributed stronger earnings and revenue to its expanding compute business and fast-growing AI data center segment.

    In reaction, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy increased his price target for AMD to $280 from $240 and reiterated a buy rating. With a price target of $285, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has an “outperform” rating on AMD stock.

    Roy noted that AMD’s Q3 top line was driven by strength across the company’s data center, AI, server and PC businesses. The 5-star analyst highlighted management’s optimism toward continued momentum in Q4 FY25, with revenue expected to grow 25% year-over-year to $9.6 billion. AMD expects Q4 revenue growth will be supported by strong performances in its data center, client and embedded businesses, partially offset by a double-digit decline in the gaming segment.

    Interestingly, Roy believes that AMD’s performance in the near-term is being fueled more by increasing demand for server central processing units and continued share gains in client CPUs rather than data center AI graphics processing units. The analyst expects AMD’s data center AI GPU business to increase to a range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion in FY25, versus a prior estimate of $5 billion.

    “Looking ahead, we continue to believe that AMD is executing well as the company nears production shipments of the MI400/450 series GPUs and the Helios rack next year,” Roy said.

    The analyst is also optimistic on AMD’s recently-announced deals with OpenAI and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, saying they provide clarity on the longer-term growth outlook in its data center AI business. Roy awaits further insights from AMD about its technology roadmap and total addressable market (TAM) at an upcoming Analyst Day event on November 11.

    Roy ranks No. 20 among more than 10,100 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 71% of the time, delivering an average return of 34.4%. See AMD Statistics on TipRanks.

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