Category: 3. Business

Key takeaways:

• October CPO futures rose 0.35% to 4,245 ringgit, supported by a weaker ringgit, despite a 0.66% weekly decline.
• Palm olein futures dipped 0.02%, soybean oil futures gained 0.83% and rapeseed oil futures saw marginal changes.
• Malaysian exports dropped 25.4% in July, while full-month production increased by 7.07%, signaling potential stock-build.

Vegoils price: CPO futures and ringgit impact

The most-active October CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose by 0.35% to close at 4,245 ringgit ($993) per tonne.

The most-active September palm olein futures contract on the DCE was little changed, edging down by 0.02% to 8,910 yuan ($1,236) per tonne. The equivalent soybean oil futures contract rose by 0.83% to 8,274 yuan per tonne.

The September rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was also marginally changed, closing 23 yuan lower to 9,524 yuan per tonne.

On a weekly basis, the most-active third-month CPO futures contract on the BMD fell by 0.66% from last Friday’s settlement of 4,273 ringgit per tonne.

The ringgit slipped against the US dollar on Friday for the sixth day in a row, which lent support to CPO futures as it made it more affordable to US currency holders.

Vegoils price: Export figures and production trends

Export figures from cargo surveyors SGS released on Friday showed Malaysian exports down by 25.4% in July to 896,362 tonnes compared with a month earlier. It is a bigger drop compared with the 6.71% decline and 9.68% decrease reflected by Intertek Testing Services and Amspec Agri respectively.

The latest figures from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) also showed production for full-July up by 7.07% compared with June. A bigger increase compared with the 5.25% increment for the first 25 days of July.

Market participants will be eyeing full-month estimates from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) expected next week which covers more planted area of Malaysia for ideas on July’s production. It is expected that palm oil inventories could see another month of stock-build at the end of July.

Vegoils price: Cash market and origin discussions

In the cash market, the last offers for August-shipment CPO were heard at $1,117.50 per tonne CFR West Coast India (WCI), $1,120 per tonne for September and $1,130 per tonne for October–December, all on the same basis.

In the late afternoon, CPO trades were heard concluded at $1,105 per tonne CFR East Coast India and $1,110 per tonne CFR WCI for August shipment.

At origin, discussions for CPO out of Indonesia for August shipment were at $1,065-1,080 per tonne FOB Indonesia through the day, while olein discussions for the same month were at $1,015-1,030 per tonne FOB Indonesia and $1,022.50-1,032.50 per tonne on the same basis for September.

Soyoil futures and crude oil influence

In the Americas, soyoil futures fell on the CME, driven by a negative pressure from lower crude oil and technical selling. But part of the losses was capped by a plunge in the US dollar.

The most-liquid September CME soyoil contract went down by 1.39% on the day to 54.50 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time.

Crude oil extended losses after worse-than-expected US economic data, fueling speculation on more potential cuts by the Federal Reserve in the US interest rate for 2025. The data weighed on the US Dollar Index against other currencies, limiting the negative pressure on soyoil.

Market participants continued to adjust positions in a technical selling movement for the third session, after soyoil contracts reached a two-year high in the past few days, amid prospects of increased US biofuels demand potentially brought by policy changes.

Meanwhile, soymeal futures moved upward on the CME on product spreading after soyoil losses.

Soymeal trade and physical market updates

China purchased its third cargo of 30,000 tonnes of Argentine soymeal on Thursday July 31, at $345 per tonne CFR China, $20 per tonne lower than the previous trade concluded a week earlier, market sources told Fastmarkets.

The purchase comes as trade talks with the US continue, and Argentina’s reduction in export taxes for soybean and its derivative products came into effect on Friday.

Following the unprecedented “trial purchase” of a July-loading shipment on June 25 and the second trade for a September-loading Argentine soymeal on July 23, the negotiation of a third soymeal cargo for loading between September and October was concluded between Bunge and Xiamen C&D, according to sources.

The September CME soymeal contract went up by 1.54% on the day to $270 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time.

In the physical market in South America, the September basis was assessed at a discount of 4.9 cents per lb to September futures in Argentina, while the corresponding basis in Brazil was assessed at a discount of 3.85 cents per lb to the same futures contract.

A paper trade of Brazilian soyoil for October loading was heard at a discount of 4.7 cents per lb to October futures, but unconfirmed until the publication of this commentary.

In the soymeal front, the September basis in Brazil was assessed at a discount of $5 per short ton to September futures. The corresponding basis in Argentina was assessed at a discount of $6 per short ton to the same futures contract.

Rapeseed oil market movements

As of 18:15 Central European Time, Euronext November rapeseed futures were trading at €475.50 ($550) per tonne, down by €2 per tonne from the previous session.

FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil prices eased on Friday, with the curve continuing to flatten while still showing a slight carry structure.

In the August–September–October (ASO) period, offers were made lower at €1,036-1,045 per tonne compared with €1,038-1050 per tonne on Thursday. Bids were made at €1,030-1,033 per tonne compared with €1,030 per tonne on Thursday.

For the November–December–January (NDJ) window, offers eased to €1,036-1,045 per tonne from €1,041-1,050 per tonne on Thursday. Bids were made at €1,030-1,033 per tonne compared with €1,031-1,032 per tonne on Thursday.

Rapeseed oil trades were heard at €1,036 per tonne for September and at €1,036 per tonne, €1,040 per tonne and late at €1,034 per tonne for the NDJ window.

Sunflower oil market movements

FOB sunflower oil prices across six EU ports rose across the curve on Friday.

September offers were made at $1,260 per tonne with bids at $1,230 per tonne, slightly lower than $1,265 per tonne and $1,235 per tonne respectively on Thursday.

For the October–November–December (OND) window, prices settled at $1,220 per tonne on the offer side and $1,190 per tonne on the bid side, compared with $1,220 and $1,200 per tonne on Thursday.

No Sunflower oil trades were reported to Fastmarkets on Friday.

The Black Sea sunflower oil market remained stable on Friday, although liquidity remained limited. While the Russian government has updated the sunflower oil and meal taxes for August on the agriculture ministry website, given the official document from July 24, during August the published taxes are suspended.

Russia-origin sunflower oil for August shipment was still looking relatively cheaper with offers at $1,198-1,200 per tonne CIF Mersin, with bids heard at $1,190 per tonne.

Ukrainian sunoil offers were heard placed above $1,200 per tonne CIF Mersin, thus were not attracting buyers attention.

The sunmeal market was silent, amid very limited activities, with no firm offers in the market, and not many buying ideas around.

Interested in vegoils price movements? Keep an eye on our market page for the latest industry updates.

Jaguar Land Rover’s profits almost halved in the last quarter as the impact of US tariffs and declining sales rocked the luxury car manufacturer.

The Tata-owned carmaker said tariffs and currency headwinds were behind a steep 49% fall in underlying pre-tax profits to £351m in the three months to 30 June.

The period started with the announcement of swingeing global tariffs by the American president, Donald Trump, which briefly led to JLR pausing exports to the US.

A subsequent trade deal between the UK and the US, in which car export tariffs were cut from 27.5% to 10%, was welcomed by JLR, but the hiatus contributed to a near £700m drop in revenues year on year, down 9.2% to £6.6bn.

JLR said that the US tariffs had a “direct and material impact on profitability and cashflow in the period”, but that the “US-UK trade deal will significantly reduce the financial impact of US tariffs going forward”.

The US deal announced with the EU in late July will also “in due course” reduce the impact of tariffs, JLR added, cutting the rate on its EU-made vehicle exports to the US from 27.5% to 15%.

Adrian Mardell, JLR’s outgoing chief executive officer, said the results came in “challenging global economic conditions”. He added: “We are grateful to the UK and US governments for delivering at speed the new UK-US trade deal, which will lessen the significant US tariff impact in subsequent quarters, as will, in due course, the EU-US trade deal announced on 27 July 2025.”

He said JLR would invest £3.8bn this financial year in developing its next-generation vehicles, including new electric Range Rover and Jaguar models.

Mardell, who is to be succeeded in November by PB Balaji, group finance chief of Tata Motors, said JLR remained “focused on delivering its transformational Reimagine Strategy” – something that, allied to controversial marketing, has seen the company denounced as a “woke” carmaker by Trump.

Trump continued his attacks this week claiming that JLR was “in absolute turmoil” and labelling its advertising, with a diverse group of models in bright clothing, as stupid and disgraceful.

JLR earlier reported a 15% drop in sales, partly ascribed to the phasing out of older Jaguar models. The Guardian revealed in July that the manufacturer was delaying the planned launches of its new electric models until 2026, allowing for more testing and for demand to pick up.

It opened a voluntary redundancy scheme last month for up to 500 managers as it seeks to reduce its 33,000-strong UK workforce.

SAO PAULO — Police in Rio de Janeiro carried out raids against a criminal group Friday that allegedly operated a clandestine ride-hailing app that generated monthly profits of up to 1 million reais (about $185,000), authorities said. At least four people were arrested.

Officials said in a statement that Comando Vermelho, one of Brazil’s most notorious criminal organizations, coerced motorcycle drivers into installing a ride-hailing app developed by the group and using it in Vila Kennedy, a neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro.

More than 300 drivers were registered with the app, and the revenue was funneled through shell companies to finance drug trafficking operations.

Police have arrested four people so far and executed 12 search and seizure warrants in Rio and neighboring cities. Authorities said the ride-hailing operation was run by two well-structured groups: one that threatened and extorted drivers, and another that collected the profits and transferred them to the local drug lord.

Comando Vermelho, which translates to Red Command in English, is one of Brazil’s oldest and largest criminal gangs. Originating in Rio de Janeiro’s prison system in the late 1970s, the group has expanded its operations into other criminal businesses, including international cocaine trafficking, and it also controls territory in several of Rio’s working-class neighborhoods.

Armed groups that dominate these areas often manage basic services such as gas, internet and transportation. Brazilian media recently reported that Comando Vermelho has banned the use of popular ride-hailing apps like Uber and 99 from operating in certain areas.

Motorcycle taxis are a longstanding and popular mode of transportation in Rio and other Brazilian cities. Uber launched its motorcycle ride service in Rio in January 2023 and, two years later, the company said in a statement that it had transported 3 million users and registered 100,000 drivers.

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Follow AP’s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america

The three-pointed star of Mercedes-Benz still watches over the highway in Iracemápolis, but the old German car factory beneath it has been under new ownership since 2021.

Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motors (GWM), the facility’s new owner, is scheduled to begin production at the site this month. Most of GWM’s sales are still of petrol cars, but the new Iracemápolis plant will focus on hybrids, turning out the Haval H6.

The GWM factory, setting up in Brazil’s industrial heartland of São Paulo state, is just one of several recent Chinese investments in the country’s clean energy sectors that bring manufacturing onshore. Further north, in the state of Bahia, the world’s largest electric vehicle maker, BYD, has already started production of Brazil’s first domestically built battery‑electric passenger car, at a plant that was previously owned by Ford.

BYD has two other factories in Brazil: a foothold in the south-eastern city of Campinas, established in  2015, which makes electric‑bus chassis and solar‑panel modules; and a plant in Manaus, Amazonas state, that assembles lithium‑iron‑phosphate battery packs for BYD buses.

Both the GWM and BYD plants will initially assemble cars from kits imported from China, but the plan is to gradually increase the number of components manufactured in Brazil. “From next year, we will localise several items. We need to be a local company, to produce in Brazil – not just to take advantage of government incentives, but to export to the wider region,” said Ricardo Bastos, GWM Brasil’s director of institutional affairs, in an interview with Dialogue Earth.

Investments by GWM, BYD and Chinese wind turbine maker Goldwind, which purchased a former General Electric factory in 2024, align closely with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s “sustainable” reindustrialisation agenda.

“Manufacturing output is a permanent conversation in Brazil, but this government is particularly keen on pursuing industrial policies, so there is plenty of space for looking favourably at Chinese investment that goes into manufacturing,” Armando Castelar, coordinator of applied economics at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), told Dialogue Earth.

On his state visit to Beijing in May, Lula secured several commitments by Chinese firms to invest in clean energy manufacturing, including from turbine maker Windey to build an assembly plant in Bahia. Lula also came back with a USD 1 billion commitment from Envision Energy to build a sustainable aviation fuel complex, and a plan from automaker GAC to break ground on a new EV plant in Brazil by 2026.

Energy cooperation between China and Brazil is not new. In the 1990s, China looked to Brazil for engineering know-how, with turbines for the Three Gorges Dam manufactured in São Paulo. By the 2010s, the dynamic had flipped, and China became a major source of investment and technology for Brazil’s energy sector.

China’s State Grid – the world’s largest utility company – has played a central role in developing Brazil’s electricity grid. It entered the market in 2010 and, after a series of high-value acquisitions, began competing in energy auctions. Deploying the “ultra-high voltage” transmission technology it developed to bridge vast distances in China, the firm built two lines that span the length of Brazil – and it continues to construct some of the country’s most ambitious transmission projects.

Oil has become another pillar of energy cooperation since the 2010s. In 2009, state oil company Petrobras tapped a USD 10 billion oil-for-credit line from China Development Bank, beginning a relationship that has seen China become one of Petrobras’s largest creditors and export markets.

Chinese investment in Brazilian renewables started with hydropower, which still dominates Brazil’s energy mix. Since 2015, China Three Gorges has deployed more than USD 5  billion in hydro acquisitions and upgrades. State Power Investment Corporation followed suit, paying USD 2.4 billion for the São Simão dam in Goiás state, but both firms have since pivoted to Brazil’s wind-rich Northeast region.

Lula also returned from Beijing touting a pledge from China General Nuclear to invest more than USD 500 million in a renewable‑energy complex in Piauí, also in the Northeast, adding to an ever-growing pipeline of Chinese-led wind and solar projects in the region.

A ‘notable’ increase

These investments are part of what Claudia Trevisan, executive director of the Brazil-China Business Council, described to Dialogue Earth as a “notable increase in Chinese-led projects linked to sustainability.”

With vast potential for growth in its already significant solar, wind and biofuels sectors, as well as a huge electricity market and a grid that is already made up of 90% low-carbon sources, many analysts are excited about Brazil’s green future.

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“Brazil has the potential to emerge as a green energy hub, not just for Latin America, but for the world – and I think China sees this potential,” Paulo Feldmann, an economics professor at the University of São Paulo, told Dialogue Earth.

On signing the “Fuel of the Future” law, which locks in demand for low-carbon fuels, Lula vowed in October 2024 that Brazil will “deliver the greatest energy revolution on Earth”. Chinese officials and executives also appear optimistic. The CEO of Goldwind has spoken of Brazil’s
“unrivalled” wind resources, while “green development” was placed at the centre of China-Brazil cooperation last November, when the two countries signed an agreement on aligning China’s Belt and Road Initiative with Lula’s New Industry Brazil and Ecological Transformation plans – even if Brazil has continued to snub membership of China’s flagship overseas investment initiative.

But the twin goals of industrialisation and green transformation do not always align, with surging imports presenting challenges to local manufacturing hopes. Last year, the Global South overtook the Global North as the main export market for Chinese solar panels. Meanwhile, emerging EV markets like Brazil remain small in absolute terms, but they are growing fast and overwhelmingly dominated by Chinese exports.

Both these trends have been positive from a climate perspective. In Pakistan, ultra-cheap Chinese panels have triggered a grassroots solar boom, and according to Rodrigo Sauaia, the CEO of Brazilian industry group Absolar, a similar phenomenon is underway in Brazil – “we could talk about a solar transformation in the past ten years,” he told Dialogue Earth.

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“As the Global South looks to decarbonise, China’s scale and ability to deliver low-cost clean energy technologies make it an indispensable partner,” said Aya Adachi, an associate fellow at the German Council for Foreign Relations. However, Adachi noted that these countries are not simply looking to import products – “they are adopting local content requirements and tariffs to encourage more value-added production”, she says, noting that “between 2016 and 2024, around two-thirds of global trade defence measures targeting China came from developing countries”.

Edgar Barassa, an expert in e-mobility with Barassa & Cruz consulting, highlighted risks for local industrial capacities. “The challenge is that Chinese firms – facing domestic overcapacity in EVs and batteries – are incentivised to export surplus production or assemble vehicles abroad with minimal integration.” Speaking to Dialogue Earth, he warned that “if left unchecked, this dynamic risks entrenching a peripheral role for Brazil in the clean tech value chain”.

Sticks and carrots

In an attempt to confront this challenge, Brasília has combined an arsenal of sticks and carrots to bring production onshore. Among these, the Brazilian development bank (BNDES) has unlocked BRL 300 billion (USD 54 billion) in subsidised credit under the New Industry Brazil strategy, while the auto‑focused Mover programme provides tax credits to firms so long as they relocate production to Brazil and channel a share of their turnover into domestic research and development.

On the defensive front, the government has reinstated import duties on electric vehicles, rising to 35% by July 2026; re‑imposed tariffs on solar panels, raising them to 25% in November 2024; and approved a hike in tariffs on completed wind turbines, from 11.2% to 25% by January 2026.

To some extent, Beijing and its corporate champions also face a dilemma – whether to keep relying on exports of ultra-competitive Chinese products or to invest in local manufacturing, placating Brazilian demands for investment and helping turn Brazil into a launchpad for Latin American exports.

Brazil can be a base for Chinese production to export to South America,” says GWM’s Bastos, “but for this, we must comply with a lot of local content rules”.

Concern about “unbalanced trade” with countries in the Global South is increasingly prevalent among Chinese think-tankers. Liu Hongzhong, for instance, who teaches economics at Xi’an Jiaotong University in Shaanxi, urges “more balanced and sustainable economic and trade cooperation with countries in the Global South”.

According to Adachi, “Beijing is aware of the tensions created by growing trade imbalances with the Global South, but unlike its often forceful responses to trade actions by high-income nations, China has largely avoided retaliating against developing countries”.

The clutch of manufacturing deals that Lula secured in May are evidence that Beijing is listening, but the jury is still out on how successful Brazil will be in capturing more of the cleantech value chain from China.

“I am cautiously optimistic,” said Barassa, “but the challenge lies in translating memoranda of understanding into investment projects that generate measurable socio-economic outcomes”.

Celio Hiratuka, an associate professor at the State University of Campinas, echoed this sentiment: “It’s too early to tell if the government has been successful,” he told Dialogue Earth. “GWM appears serious about selecting suppliers and is betting on local content, but I think that BYD is still testing the market – their strategy might be to postpone the moment they need to [begin to] produce here in Brazil.”      

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BYD has faced criticism for flooding the market with imports, including via its car-carrier ship, the BYD Shenzhen, which is the largest vessel of its type in the world.

Bastos also admits that there is a limit to the extent that GWM can localise manufacturing of important components like batteries. “Producing the cells would be very, very expensive, but we are talking with suppliers about assembling batteries in Brazil,” he said.

“As to how much we can expect to onshore – that’s a difficult question,” André Cieplinski, of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) in Brazil, told Dialogue Earth. “But even if we can’t onshore the whole battery manufacturing process, if we are able to nationalise other components, the result can be net positive for jobs.”

A worker installs solar panels on the roof of a public school in the city of Salvador, Bahia state. Experts are divided on whether the Brazilian government’s efforts to encourage domestic solar panel manufacturing have been sufficient (Image: Joá Souza / Alamy)

Although Cieplinski said that the Brazilian development bank has been very important for the development of solar in Brazil, Absolar’s Rodrigo Sauaia suggested that the government has not gone far enough in its industrial policy: “Brazil is the only possible hub for local manufacturing of solar photovoltaics in South America, but for that to develop, there are still some policies we need to work on.”

Referring to the government’s tariffs on solar panels, Sauaia added that, “rather than choke the market, it would be better to establish constructive policies – to use the government’s buying power to create demand and to establish strong industrial policy that incentivises the establishment of manufacturing hubs in Brazil”.

The CEO of the Brazilian Wind Energy Association, Elbia Gannoum, is more bullish on the state of Brazil’s wind industry and the role of government policy. “The Brazilian government has made significant efforts to keep the local supply chain active with job creation and to attract wind turbine manufacturing to the country,” she told Dialogue Earth, noting that “between 60% and 80% of wind turbine components (including blades, towers, and nacelles) are already manufactured in Brazil”.

Hiratuka said: “The Brazilian government is going in the right direction with its industrial policy, but they need to stay firm in the face of pressure from Chinese firms.”

For Hiratuka, the main risk lies in the general election due to be held in 2026: “The current government is moving in the right direction, but everything could change with a political turn at the next election.”

WASHINGTON — With new tariffs putting pressure on international trade, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is tentatively expected to end 2025 5.6% below 2024’s volume, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”

The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world that had been announced, postponed and then finally enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect this week.

“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”

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We still expect the Bank of England to cut Bank Rate by 25bps again in November, despite August’s unexpectedly tight vote and the Monetary Policy Committee raising its inflation forecasts. However, our call is made with much less confidence than before.

The Bank of England opted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 4% at the August meeting. But the committee was only able to reach a majority after a second round of voting. The voting pattern was more hawkish than we anticipated, with Clare Lombardelli and Megan Greene joining Huw Pill and Catherine Mann in voting for no change.

The MPC’s messaging has been inconsistent this year. Worries about labour market fragility have eased since June’s very dovish minutes. The MPC’s focus has now returned to the degree to which services inflation is cooling in response to labour market developments, and the impact of higher food and fuel prices on inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, the BoE’s review of quantitative tightening found the programme hasn’t affected market functioning and is having a limited impact on gilt yields. But the acknowledgment the risks could be greater in future is consistent with our view that the MPC is likely to reduce the pace of QT at next month’s meeting and focus its sales more on short- and medium-dated gilts.

Download the full report to discover how the Bank Rate cut might affect the UK economy.

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