Category: 3. Business

The number of employed people in the UK has fallen again, particularly in shops, restaurants and hotels, reflecting weak hiring, while private sector wages grew at the slowest rate in five years, official figures show.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the number of employees on payrolls fell by 184,000 in December compared with a year earlier, to 30.2 million.

The rate of unemployment remained at 5.1% in the three months to the end of November.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been criticised for creating uncertainty for employers in the run-up to her budget in late November, announcing £26bn of tax-raising measures in an effort to cut the cost of living and plugging a shortfall in the public finances.

Wage growth excluding bonuses weakened to 4.5% in the quarter from 4.6% while including bonuses, it slipped to 4.7% from 4.8%, the ONS said.

Liz McKeown, the director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “The number of employees on payroll has fallen again, with reductions over the last year concentrated in retail and hospitality, and reflecting ongoing weak hiring activity.

“Wage growth in the private sector has slowed to its lowest rate in five years, while public sector wage growth remains elevated reflecting the continued impact of some pay rises being awarded earlier than they were last year.”

City economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% and average wages, excluding bonuses, to slip from 4.6% in the three months to the end of October to 4.5% over the same period to the end of November.

The labour market has weakened significantly over the last year. Unemployment has jumped to 1.8 million, and the number of vacancies have fallen to below the average seen before the Covid pandemic.

Employers have become more reluctant to retain staff and advertise for new workers after Reeves pushed up employers’ national insurance and the minimum wage last year.

Donald’s Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs last April added to uncertainty in the global economy, dampening the appetite among large corporations for investment.

The boom in artificial intelligence has created jobs in the tech sector and sent stock markets soaring to record highs, but made some employers re-examine their hiring policies, with more organisations becoming reluctant to hire school leavers and graduates for entry-level white-collar jobs.

City economists expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates at least twice this year to 3.25%, from 3.75%, in response to the weaker outlook for jobs and inflation.

Sally Beadle/BBC

NSFT

‘Quality care’

Finances still to be finalised

Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook remains technically constructive despite Monday’s sharp reversal, according to some analysts, as durable ETF flows offset short-term volatility.

The top crypto has stabilized around $92,000 and has remained little changed over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The recovery follows Monday’s sell-off, driven by escalating U.S.-Europe trade tensions that resulted in over $865 million in liquidations.

“The market recovered relatively quickly with Bitcoin finding its feet in this range, suggesting a strong underlying bid and that much of this macro noise is priced,” according to a Tuesday report from digital assets investment firm ZeroCap.

The firm’s analysts likened the current setup to an “early-stage risk-on rotation,” noting that strong structural flows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are proving more durable than short-term positioning.

While last week’s ETF netflows reached the highest level in three months, other analysts are still uncertain. 

Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, also expressed caution to Decrypt. 

“I think short-term volatility will dominate,” Dawson said, pointing to the 25-delta skew trend lower as evidence that investors are increasingly buying puts for downside protection.

Bitcoin Slips On Trade War Fears, Sparks $865M in Liquidations

Still, investors need to keep a close eye on three macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts that could sustain high volatility in crypto and broader financial markets.

Those include the escalating U.S.-Europe trade dispute over Greenland, the delayed regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act, and the pending Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariff policy. 

The Greenland dispute intensified Monday when President Trump sent a text message to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. 

Støre confirmed the exchange, stating he and Finland’s president had messaged Trump urging de-escalation. The prime minister reaffirmed Norway’s position that Greenland belongs to Denmark and reaffirmed support for NATO, which he said is “taking steps” to bolster security in the Arctic.

“As regards the Nobel Peace Prize, I have clearly explained, including to President Trump, what is well known, the prize is awarded by an independent Nobel Committee, and not the Norwegian Government,’ Støre said.

Trump has repeatedly argued he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his foreign-policy efforts, openly expressing frustration over the award’s refusal to recognize his role in past diplomatic agreements.

As a result, the president has stepped up his push in recent weeks to assert U.S. control over Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, saying Washington would take the Arctic island “one way or the other.”

He also threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on imports from several European countries from February 1 unless they dropped their objections.

“Historically, tariff threats and retaliatory measures have created significant headwinds for digital and other risk assets,” Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto trading platform VALR, told Decrypt in a statement. “The market is now pricing in the possibility that prolonged escalations could disrupt previous trade agreements, strain international relations, and further pressure risk assets. Early signs of on-chain stabilization have not offset the macro headwinds facing digital assets.”

Consumers and the UK financial system are being exposed to “serious harm” by the failure of government and the Bank of England to get a grip on the risks posed by artificial intelligence, an influential parliamentary committee has warned.

In a new report, MPs on the Treasury committee criticise ministers and City regulators, including the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), for taking a “wait-and-see” approach to AI use across the financial sector.

That is despite looming concerns over how the burgeoning technology could disadvantage already vulnerable consumers, or even trigger a financial crisis, if AI-led firms end up making similar financial decisions in response to economic shocks.

More than 75% of City firms now use AI, with insurers and international banks among the biggest adopters. It is being used to automate administrative tasks or even help with core operations, including processing insurance claims and assessing customers’ credit-worthiness.

But the UK has failed to develop any specific laws or regulations to govern their use of AI, with the FCA and Bank of England claiming general rules are sufficient to ensure positive outcomes for consumers. That means businesses have to determine how existing guidelines apply to AI, leaving MPs worried this could put consumers and financial stability at risk.

“It is the responsibility of the Bank of England, the FCA and the government to ensure the safety mechanisms within the system keeps pace,” said Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury committee. “Based on the evidence I’ve seen, I do not feel confident that our financial system is prepared if there was a major AI-related incident and that is worrying.”

The report flagged a lack of transparency around how AI could influence financial decisions, potentially affecting vulnerable consumers’ access to loans or insurance. It said it was also unclear whether data providers, tech developers or financial firms would be held responsible when things went wrong.

MPs said AI also increased the likelihood of fraud, and the dissemination of unregulated and misleading financial advice.

In terms of financial stability, MPs found that rising AI use increased firms’ cybersecurity risks, and left them overly reliant on a small number of US tech companies, such as Google, for essential services. Its uptake could also amplify “herd behaviour”, with businesses making similar financial decisions during economic shocks and “risking a financial crisis”.

The Treasury committee is now urging regulators to take action, including the launch of new stress tests that would assess the City’s readiness for AI-driven market shocks. MPs also want the FCA to publish “practical guidance” by the end of the year, clarifying how consumer protection rules apply to AI use, and who would be held accountable if consumers suffer any harm.

“By taking a wait-and-see approach to AI in financial services, the three authorities are exposing consumers and the financial system to potentially serious harm”, the report said.

The FCA said it had already “undertaken extensive work to ensure firms are able to use AI in a safe and responsible way”, but would review the report’s findings “carefully”.

A spokesperson for the Treasury said: “We’ve been clear that we will strike the right balance between managing the risks posed by AI and unlocking its huge potential.”

They added that this involved working with regulators to “strengthen our approach as the technology evolves”, and appointing new “AI champions” covering financial services “to ensure we seize the opportunities it presents in a safe and responsible way”.

A spokesperson for the Bank of England said it had “already taken active steps to assess AI-related risks and reinforce the resilience of the financial system, including publishing a detailed risk assessment and highlighting the potential implications of a sharp fall in AI-affected asset prices. We will consider the committee’s recommendations carefully and will respond in full in due course.”

Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.

BlackBerry (TSX:BB) has caught investor attention after a mixed run in its share price, with the stock showing a gain over the past month alongside a decline in returns over the past three months and the past year.

See our latest analysis for BlackBerry.

At a current share price of CA$5.40, BlackBerry’s recent 30 day share price return of 4.25% contrasts with a 90 day share price decline of 17.43% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 6.90%, suggesting momentum has been fading after a short term bounce.

If BlackBerry’s mixed performance has you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a good moment to check out high growth tech and AI stocks as another way to spot opportunities in software and security focused names.

With BlackBerry posting annual revenue of $534.8 million, net income of $21.1 million and an intrinsic value estimate suggesting roughly a 14% discount, you have to ask: is this a genuine entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

BlackBerry trades on a P/E of 108.5x, which, at a CA$5.40 share price, points to a rich earnings multiple compared with both peers and its own fair value markers.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price with earnings per share. For a software and security focused company like BlackBerry, it often reflects how much future earnings growth investors are willing to pay for today.

Here, the market price implies investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings than for the average Canadian software stock, with BlackBerry on 108.5x versus an industry average of 45.5x and a peer group average of 52.1x. Our estimated fair P/E of 35.4x is also far lower than the current multiple. This suggests a level that prices in a more moderate view of future earnings than the market currently does.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for BlackBerry

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 108.5x (OVERVALUED)

However, BlackBerry’s rich 108.5x P/E and 5 year total shareholder return decline of 76.44% highlight sentiment risks if earnings or execution disappoint from this point onward.

Find out about the key risks to this BlackBerry narrative.

While the 108.5x P/E suggests BlackBerry is expensive, our DCF model points the other way. With an estimated fair value of CA$6.27 versus today’s CA$5.40, the shares sit around 14% below that mark. Is the high multiple a warning sign, or is the DCF hinting at mispriced potential?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BlackBerry for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 866 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the numbers differently, or simply prefer to piece together your own view from the data, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BlackBerry research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

If BlackBerry has sparked fresh questions about where to focus next, do not stop here, there are plenty of other angles worth your attention right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BB.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com