- Star Entertainment reaches deal to sell 50% stake in Brisbane resort to HK investors Reuters
- Star Entertainment revives bid to sell 50% stake in Brisbane resort, AFR reports By Reuters Investing.com
- Star seals deal to sell Queen’s Wharf casino to HK partners The Sydney Morning Herald
- Star salvages $1.4bn Queen’s Wharf rescue deal The Australian
- Star Entertainment Trading Halt Amidst Deal Reports Sharecafe
Category: 3. Business
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Star Entertainment reaches deal to sell 50% stake in Brisbane resort to HK investors – Reuters
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Kodak warns investors it might not be around much longer
By Claudia Assis
Going-concern warning comes as Kodak reports second-quarter results
A vintage Kodak camera and box. The company, which diversified its business to include chemicals and printing, spooked investors Monday.
It’s the Kodak moment no one wanted to see again.
Eastman Kodak Co. (KODK) late Monday warned investors that it runs the risk of not being around much longer.
Similar warnings have plagued the company, an undisputable household name in the U.S. and abroad, in the past, most recently around 2019. A year later, it got a $765 million government loan to produce domestic ingredients for generic drugs in order to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign-made ones.
Kodak has pivoted to other industries, including industrial printing and chemicals, and has offered nods to technology a little closer to its roots, including offering a Barbie-branded mini photo printer.
The going-concern language was added to Kodak’s second-quarter results Monday. A plan to use excess funds from the end of a pension plan to pay down debt and remain afloat is “progressing as planned,” the company said.
The company expects to have “a clear understanding” of how it will satisfy its obligations to plan participants this week; it says it expects to complete the funds reversion by December.
The focus for the second half of the year is on continuing to reduce costs and on converting investments into “long-term growth,” Kodak said.
After initially dropping nearly 20% in the extended session Monday, the stock ended the after-hours session down 6.6%.
So far this year, the shares have gained about 3%, which compares with an advance of around 8% for the S&P 500 index SPX. The stock last ended in the black for the year in 2016, when it rose 24%. It lost 48% last year.
Kodak reported second-quarter sales of $263 million, down 1% compared with the same period in 2024. It swung to a GAAP net loss of $26 million for the quarter, compared with a profit of $26 million in the year-ago quarter.
Kodak ended the quarter with $155 million in cash, a drop of $46 million from Dec. 31. That’s mostly due to capital expenses to fund its growth plans, changes in working capital, higher costs and lower profitability from operations, the company said.
The focus remains on improving “the efficiency of our operations and investing in growth initiatives in our [advanced materials and chemicals] group,” Chief Financial Officer David Bullwinkle said in a statement.
-Claudia Assis
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-11-25 2022ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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Asian Stocks Rise on China Tariff Truce Extension: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose after the US and China agreed to extend their tariff truce, offering relief to markets ahead of a key US inflation report expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% as the Nikkei-225 index soared to a record high with Japan returning from a holiday Monday. Shares in Shanghai rose 0.3% while those in Hong Kong were flat. The yen weakened against the dollar for a third consecutive session. Gold gained 0.3%.
Chinese shares are in focus after President Donald Trump extended the pause on tariffs for another 90 days, pushing the deadline into early November. The move removes one source of uncertainty for markets, which are now turning to economic data for clues on whether tariffs are affecting prices and what the Fed will do at its September meeting.
“For now, the markets are pleased that progress is being made to extend the August 12 deadline, but this is by no means certain and no deal has been signed,” said Seb Mullins, Schroders’ head of multi-asset and fixed income in Australia. “The China trade deal is the most likely to flare up again, which will have the greatest impact on total US tariffs.”
Trump extended a pause of sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies. Trump signed an order extending the truce through Nov. 10, deferring a tariff hike set for Tuesday.
The de-escalation first took effect when the US and China agreed to reduce tit-for-tat tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies.
“All other elements of the Agreement will remain the same,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Micron Technology Inc. raising its revenue and earnings outlook and Trump signaling that he’d be open to allowing Nvidia Corp. to sell a scaled-back version of its most advanced AI chip to China also lifted sentiment Tuesday.
Chip shares in Asia rose led by Advantest Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co.
Attention will shift to inflation data later Tuesday, which is forecast to show American consumers saw a slight pickup in inflation as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.
“The market’s reaction to any surprises in the numbers could be exaggerated — especially if a significantly hotter-than-expected CPI print leads traders to believe the Fed may not cut rates at its next meeting,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The core consumer price index in the US, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, will show a 0.3% increase for July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Money markets show traders have priced in more than two rate reductions by December, with about a 90% probability of a quarter-point Fed cut next month. The latest jobs report also pointed to a sharp cooling in the labor market over the last few months. Policymakers left rates unchanged at the end of July.
Markets Live Strategist Garfield Reynolds says:
Global equities look nervous heading into Tuesday’s US CPI release, given the potential the data could disrupt expectations for Fed interest-rate cuts that have helped to prop up risk appetite in the US and beyond. Asian stocks may face a more perilous risk-reward set up given this local investor hesitance.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens next year, according to two administration officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks, said the officials.
Trump named EJ Antoni, chief economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing the former head of the agency earlier this month.
Gold held a loss after Trump said imports of bullion won’t be subject to US tariffs, although traders were still waiting for formal clarification over the policy following a federal ruling last week that sowed chaos and confusion across the market.
Elsewhere, Australia’s central bank is poised to deliver its third interest-rate cut this year on Tuesday as inflationary pressures ebb, while Governor Michele Bullock is expected to stick with her cautious stance on the monetary policy outlook.
On the geopolitical front, Trump downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine. Trump cast it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10:57 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 1.4% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1620 The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.28 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1906 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $119,014.36 Ether rose 0.6% to $4,270.71 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28% Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 1.485% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.26% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,350.08 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Carmeli Argana and Winnie Hsu.
(An earlier version was corrected to show that soybean exports referred to soybean oil)
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
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KFC will bring back two discontinued fan favorites but which ones?
Kentucky Fried Chicken will bring back some oldies, but goodies, to their latest menu offerings.
The fast-food chain announced Aug. 11 that potato wedges and hot & spicy wings are “officially back by obsessive demand.” Both returning menu items will be available for purchase at KFC restaurants nationwide starting next week.
KFC couldn’t keep the good news to themselves, writing “HERE, DAMN.” in an X post that has now been viewed over ten million times.
“you asked (a lot), and we listened. wedges are back,” KFC wrote.
According to KFC, they’ve heard fans “clamoring” for a chance to taste their potato wedges (again) via thousands of social media comments and petition signatures – for years.
“When KFC fired up a surprise drop of wedges in the Tampa, Fla. market, local fans were elated, leading to an early sellout in some restaurants,” the fast-food chain said. “KFC first introduced Potato Wedges in the mid-1990s as a menu staple, earning cult status in the late 1990s and early 2000s, before a hotly debated discontinuation in 2020.”
The wait for KFC’s potato wedges (and wings) is now over. Here’s what to know about their long-awaited return, including how to get them.
Potato wedges, wings back at KFC soon
KFC’s potato wedges, in addition to the hot & spicy wings, will return to the menu on Monday, Aug. 18.
“While wedges make a comeback after five years, wings make their triumphant return after nearly two years—both are available while supplies last, so get them while they’re hot and crispy,” KFC said.
Customers will either be able to purchase a side of wedges, substitute any side for wedges, or try them in a new six-piece wings and wedges combo. (FYI: Secret Recipe Fries will still be available on KFC menus.)
In addition to the returning menu items, KFC is serving up “crave-worthy deals” designed to bring big flavor without breaking the bank this season:
- $3.99 KFC Chicken Sandwich: An Extra Crispy™ chicken breast filet on a toasted brioche bun, topped with pickles and the Colonel’s real mayo or spicy mayo (Deal starts Aug. 18)
- $20 Wings & Wedges Fan Favorites Box: Weeknight dinners just got easier—10 Hot & Spicy Wings, 12 KFC Chicken Nuggets, Potato Wedges, four biscuits and four dipping sauces, offering something for everyone in the family (Deal starts Aug. 18)
- 20 Wings for $20: Your game day group meal unlocked—enjoy 20 Hot & Spicy Wings and four dipping sauces of your choice for just $20 (a KFC digital exclusive offer that kicks off Sept. 4)
- $10 Tuesdays: KFC’s popular deal continues—your choice of eight pieces of classic fried chicken or eight Original Recipe® Tenders for just $10 on Tuesday
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Deloitte Australia announces $2.55 billion revenue and positions for FY26 growth
12 August 2025: Deloitte Australia has recorded revenue of $2.55 billion for Financial Year 2025 (FY25), which ended on the 31st of May. In the context of challenging global and domestic conditions, this performance underscores the resilience of the firm’s diversified portfolio and strategic focus.
While revenue softened by 8.3 per cent versus FY24, Deloitte’s ongoing investment in the skills and capability of our people, alongside strengthening macroeconomic tailwinds and an accelerating Australian economy, positions the firm on a clear trajectory back to growth in FY26. This growth is expected across both its high-growth practices and cyclical portfolios.
Strong demand continued across core practices, including business and private tax advisory, regulatory services and technology modernisation, as well as within the banking, capital markets, investment management and technology sectors. Deloitte’s Operate service, which manages end-to-end business operations and processes, achieved double-digit growth, with this momentum expected to continue.
A dedicated workforce of 12,080 professionals delivered these outcomes. Deloitte continues to attract exceptional and diverse talent, welcoming 35 new Partners and hiring 655 graduates. The firm completed the strategic acquisition of Efficientia Solutions, bolstering its industrial and manufacturing technology integration and support capabilities.
Deloitte Australia CEO Jo Gorton said: “Evolving client needs, heightened global volatility and the accelerating pace of technological advancement have all contributed to a complex operating environment throughout FY25. While these factors have undoubtedly impacted business outcomes, they have also created significant opportunities for people to work alongside our clients on transformational projects.
“I want to express my deep appreciation to our clients for their trust and collaboration, and to our people for their dedication and expertise. Together, we have navigated these changes with agility and purpose.
“Our priority has been positioning ourselves for long-term success in FY26 and beyond by taking deliberate, strategic steps to navigate this landscape. This requires identifying the opportunities that matter and driving meaningful, tangible change. As we look towards FY26, we do so with optimism and confidence and a commitment to maintaining our position as Australia’s leading professional services firm.”
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NextDecade secures $1.8 billion from TotalEnergies, GIP for Rio Grande LNG project – Reuters
- NextDecade secures $1.8 billion from TotalEnergies, GIP for Rio Grande LNG project Reuters
- TotalEnergies passes on investing in NextDecade’s Rio Grande Train 5 MSN
- NextDecade Secures $3B for Rio Grande LNG Train 4 Hart Energy
- TotalEnergies won’t climb aboard expansion train for US LNG project Tradewinds News
- NextDecade Secures $3 Billion for LNG Expansion TipRanks
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THEON announces new strategic US and European investments and partnerships to build global leadership in Digital and Augmented Reality defense optronics domain under the THEON NEXT initiative
Theon International PLC PRESS RELEASE
Bloomberg (THEON:NA) / Reuters (THEON.AS)
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Strategic Investment and Partnership with KOPIN Corporation – Augmented Reality System Development
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Long-Term Supply Agreement with eMagin Corporation – OLED Displays
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Strategic Industrial Partnership with ALEREON – Wireless Communication
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Extending AR-MR-VR Capability via Investment in VARJO
11 August, 2025 – Theon International Plc (THEON) is proud to announce new strategic investments and strategic partnerships as part of its THEON NEXT initiative, building a platform to drive the development of next-generation soldier systems through targeted investments, collaborations, and co-development initiatives.
With a focus on the creation of innovative Digital and Augmented Reality (AR) solutions THEON NEXT aims to onboard best-in-class partners in their field of expertise to help shaping the future of operational dominance in modern warfare environments. To this end, THEON is announcing four major investments / strategic cooperations in the United States and Europe, marking a significant milestone in its journey to continue being a global leader in man-portable electro-optics. These transactions reinforce THEON’s commitment to innovation, supply chain security, and transatlantic cooperation in defense technologies.
Following the establishment of a leading position in night vision systems, THEON has successfully expanded into thermal and digital solutions with its new A.R.M.E.D. product family. Similarly to the approach adopted for traditional Night Vision systems, favoring vertical integration and long-term supply agreements, THEON is now proactively stepping further into the rapidly growing Digital and AR domain, which relies on three critical technologies:
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Augmented and Virtual Reality Software – the foundation of next-generation soldier systems, enabling immersive situational awareness, enhanced decision- making, and digital overlays in real-world environments.
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Micro-displays – essential for next generation visual augmentation systems, with a strategic focus on developing a US-European microLED technology.
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Near-Range Wireless Connectivity – enabling seamless, cable-free integration of soldier gear with real-time data transmission.
To successfully face these challenges, THEON announces four major initiatives and agreements that not only constitute relevant milestones in its technological roadmap but also deepen the US-European industrial cooperation:
First, THEON is investing a total of $15 million in Kopin Corporation (KOPIN, NASDAQ: KOPN), a US-based defense micro-display and sub-system specialist with operations in the US and Scotland, UK. This comprises a $7 million interest bearing loan, convertible in preferred stock of KOPIN at a share price range of $3 to $4.5 in THEON’s option, and $8 million capital increase for the acquisition of a 49% stake in KOPIN’s Scottish subsidiary, which will serve as the foundation for a new European joint venture acting as the global (non-US) conduit for the production and distribution of AR-enabled systems co-developed between KOPIN and THEON and microLED display production. The whole investment in KOPIN of $15 million, is geared towards the co-development of products and reflects the belief by THEON, that the already extensive R&D investments that KOPIN has undertaken have established the necessary foundation, for a cooperation that can promptly translate into cost efficient, AR-enabled products.
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UK consumers spent more on clothes as temperatures soared in July, data shows – Reuters
- UK consumers spent more on clothes as temperatures soared in July, data shows Reuters
- Retail insolvencies surge as over 70,000 businesses show signs of financial distress Cambridge Network
- Oasis and the ‘lipstick effect’ raised spending in July The Times
- Retail sales boost of 2.5% ‘barely touching the sides’ of costs, sector warns The Wiltshire Gazette and Herald
- Higher food sales ‘barely touching the sides’ of extra labour costs The Grocer
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Recent patterns in global risk behaviour in financial markets
In recent months, global financial markets have witnessed episodes of heightened volatility, with trade tensions being a key source of uncertainty. The first half of 2025 was marked by rising uncertainty, reflecting a combination of factors including rising trade tensions, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and growing concerns about fiscal sustainability in the US (Figure 1). The emphasis on trade policy as a key policy instrument by the current US administration culminated in the announcement of sweeping tariffs on its trading partners on 2 April 2025. This announcement resulted in pronounced bouts of financial market stress in the days that followed. The VIX index – a widely recognised gauge of market volatility – surged beyond 50, reflecting an acute rise in uncertainty and heightened risk aversion among investors (Figure 2). Similarly, option-implied volatility in bond and currency markets spiked, as uncertainty about future interest rate and exchange rate developments mounted, partly linked to worries about the potential implications of the shift in trade policy. The scale of volatility increases in April was substantial from a historical perspective, but in the months that followed, market uncertainty has recovered to relatively average levels, in spite of further geopolitical and economic uncertainties (Figure 2, zoom-in window in the left panel, as well as red and green dots in the right panel).
Figure 1 US economic and trade policy uncertainty indices
Sources: Bloomberg, based on Baker et al. (2016) and policyuncertainty.com.
Note: The latest observation is for 28 July 2025.Figure 2 Option-implied volatility
(left panel: standardised indices, right panel: index)Sources: Bloomberg and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: ‘Equity’ denotes the VIX index (one-month option-implied volatility of the S&P 500 index), ‘bond’ denotes the MOVE index (one-month option-implied volatility of US Treasury futures for two, five, ten, and 30-year maturity), ‘currency’ denotes the one-month option-implied volatility of the USD/EUR exchange rate. Left panel: Option-implied volatilities are standardised using z-scores. Vertical lines denote the following events: (1) ‘April 2025’ refers to the tariff announcement on 2 April 2025, (2) ‘Iran conflict’ refers to the start of the Iran-Israel conflict on 12 June 2025, (3) ‘Big Beautiful Bill signed’ refers to 1 July 2025. Right panel: Distributions of (not standardised) option-implied volatilities are calculated since 2010, bars denote 25th-75th percentile range, lines denote 5th-95th percentile range. April peak refers to 8 April 2025. The latest observation is 28 July 2025.Cross-asset correlations observed after 2 April 2025 were different from those typically observed in risk-off episodes. The April events appear to have increased risk aversion among investors, prompting them to rotate into safe-haven assets. Typically, global risk-off episodes trigger safe-haven flows into safe currencies and bonds. In the past, such flows tended to temporarily lower yields on highly rated sovereign bonds such as US Treasuries and German Bunds, while the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc typically appreciated (Figure 3, solid blue lines). In early April, market perceptions of global risk increased, and volatility indices spiked. US yields fell initially, in line with historical patterns, but started to rise sharply after two days (Figure 3, dotted blue lines). Unusually, these developments in the VIX and US yields were accompanied by a depreciation of the US dollar and a strengthening of the euro.
In the months that followed, markets experienced another, much smaller and short-lived bout of uncertainty, following the events of mid-June related to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. In contrast to the April episode, this adverse geopolitical risk shock saw a slight appreciation of the US dollar.Figure 3 Response of financial assets to major ‘risk-off events’
(cumulative percentage change)Sources: Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: EUR, USD and CHF refer to broad nominal effective exchange rates. Average response is calculated around the five biggest daily VIX-change episodes. ‘2 April risk-off’ shows the response after Trump’s tariff announcement.To zoom in on the safe-haven behaviour of investors in April, we estimate a ‘safe-haven factor’. In our analysis, we derive a ‘safe-haven factor’ by modelling the co-movement among the major safe-haven assets, currencies, and key risk indicators. In particular, the ‘safe-haven factor’ is estimated as the first principal component of daily changes in the nominal effective exchange rate of CHF, JPY, USD, EUR, gold price returns, the first difference of ten‑year government yields for the US, Japan, and the euro area, and changes in the VIX index. All returns are standardised using z-scores to account for different variances across the indicators. The US dollar and euro are purged by domestic monetary policy and macro shocks estimated using the model of Brandt et al. (2026). For example, the US dollar return component used for the estimation of the ‘safe-haven factor’ is the residual from the regression of the daily USD net effective exchange rate returns on the US monetary policy and US macro shocks. The euro return component is the residual from the regression of the daily EUR net effective exchange rate returns on the euro area monetary policy and macro shocks. Our approach to use purged USD and EUR net effective exchange rate variables helps us control for major fundamental factors that might be influencing their developments and focus on the residual dynamics of these currencies. In addition, we purge gold price returns from the impact of the USD exchange rate developments by taking the residual from the regression of the gold price returns on the USD net effective exchange rate returns. The ‘safe-haven factor’ resulting from the principal component analysis explains around one third of the variance of its components and indicates the largest increases, among others, in late 2008 during the peak of the Global Crisis, in June 2016 after the Brexit referendum, in early 2020 during the Covid crisis, in August 2024 during a stock market plunge and unwinding of carry trades, as well as in April 2025 (Figure 4).
Figure 4 The ‘safe-haven factor’
(index)Sources: Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: The ‘safe-haven factor’ is estimated as the first principal component of daily changes in the net effective exchange rates of CHF, JPY, EUR, and USD (purged by monetary policy and macro shocks estimated using the model of Brandt et al. 2026); gold price returns (purged from the USD); the first difference of ten‑year government yields for the US, Japan, and the euro area; and the VIX. The estimation is daily from 2006 to 2025, the line illustrates cumulated monthly sums of the factor, while vertical lines denote the following events: (1) ‘Lehman collapse’ in September 2008, (2) ‘Onset of sovereign debt crisis’ refers to Greece receiving a bailout package in May 2010, (3) ‘Sovereign debt crisis escalation’ refers to the escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis due to Greek’s political instability in May 2012, (4) ‘Brexit referendum’ in June 2016, (5) ‘US-China trade war’ refers to the reciprocal imposition of tariffs during the first Trump administration, (6) ‘Covid-19’ in February 2020, (7) ‘SVB collapse’ in March 2023, (8) ‘August 2024 crash’ refers to the stock market plunge in August 2024, and (9) ‘April 2025’ refers to the tariff announcement. The latest observation is 28 July 2025.Model evidence confirms that the co-movement of certain financial market variables with a safe-haven factor was different in April. Our principal component analysis further illustrates the different nature of the April 2025 risk-off episode. Figure 5 shows a typical co-movement of each variable with the ‘safe-haven factor’, estimated over the period from 2006 to March 2025 (red dots), as well as a range of the co-movement, estimated as +/- one standard deviation range of results using a three-year rolling window (yellow ranges). The typical co-movement is compared to the estimates for the period of April-July 2025 (blue dots). Typically, US Treasury yields co-move negatively with the ‘safe-haven factor’ (Figure 5, red dots and yellow ranges). This reflects the fact that US Treasury yields typically decline during periods of global risk aversion as the demand for US Treasuries increases. In the period following 2 April, however, US yields exhibited a less negative co-movement with the ‘safe-haven factor’ – as US Treasury yields increased after 2 April (Figure 5, blue dots). At the same time, the estimated co-movement of German Bunds with the ‘safe-haven factor’ remained stable. Looking at currencies, while the US dollar has typically appreciated following a deterioration in global risk sentiment, this co-movement switched signs in April 2025. By contrast, the co-movement of the euro exchange rate with the ‘safe-haven factor’, which has been historically close to zero, turned positive, closer to the usual behaviour of a safe-haven currency such as the Swiss franc.
Instances of changing co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ have at times been observed in the past. While the usual co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ tends to remain broadly stable (as shown in Figure 5 with yellow ranges), the instances of changing patterns are not unprecedented. For example, Figure 6 illustrates that there have been several times in the past years when the co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ declined or even turned negative. For example, a period of somewhat negative co-movement has been observed in the early months of 2017, after the introduction of the fiscal stimulus during the first presidency of Donald Trump. Further examples of a slightly lower co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ include the months after the downgrade of US credit rating by Fitch from AAA to AA+ in August 2023, the period of US equity market sell-off in the fall of 2018, when the stock market priced in negative effects of the trade war with China, the slowdown in global economic growth and concerns about rising interest rates, as well as the Covid period in 2020, which was characterised by outflows from US Treasuries observed during the ‘dash-for-cash’ episode. Comparing these estimates with April 2025 (blue dot for USD in Figure 5), the most recent change in the co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ has been substantial, which might suggest that the policy-related news and uncertainty were relatively pronounced, as compared to past episodes. In addition, strong currency market developments following the April event might have been reportedly linked to the rebalancing of hedging activity among international investors, covering currency risks related to previously unhedged exposures in US dollar-denominated assets. With respect to yield developments, US Treasury yield increases after the April 2025 episode were accompanied by the decline in measures of the convenience of US Treasuries.
Related academic research offers a broader perspective on the dynamics in longer-term US yields. Jiang et al. (2025b), as well as Jiang et al. (2025c) document a trend of declining US convenience yields in recent years linked to, among others, concerns about a deteriorating fiscal situation. Such concerns have also gained market attention in the recent months.Figure 5 Co-movement of financial assets with a ‘safe-haven factor’
(index)Sources: Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: Dots show the weights in the first principal component estimated from daily changes in the net effective exchange rate (NEER) of CHF, JPY, EUR, and USD (purged by monetary policy and macro shocks estimated using the model of Brandt et al. 2026); gold price returns (purged from the USD); the first difference of ten‑year government yields for the US, Japan, and the euro area; and the VIX. Red dots: sample from 1 January 2006 to 31 March 2025; blue dots: 1 April 2025 – 15 July 2025 (the sample covers several weeks to ensure a sufficient number of observations). Yellow area: +/- one standard deviation range of results using a three-year rolling window. The latest observation is for 28 July 2025.Figure 6 Past events of temporary shifts in USD co-movement with the ‘safe haven factor’
(index)Sources: Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: Bars show the weights of the USD net effective exchange rate (purged by monetary policy and macro shocks) in the ‘safe-haven factor’, as defined in Figure 3, estimated over the following selected periods of time: (1) ‘Trump’s fiscal stimulus’ 1 January 2017 to 1 June 2017, (2) ‘US downgrade by Fitch’ 1 August 2023 to 1 October 2023, (3) ‘US equity sell-off’ 1 October 2018 to 1 January 2019, (4) ‘COVID’ 1 March 2020 to 1 September 2020, and (5) ‘Full sample’ 1 January 2006 to 31 March 2025, as in Figure 5.To give perspective on potential shifts in demand for US assets, US portfolio investment data for April show high outflows, but they were not unprecedented in scale and appear to have normalised since May. Apart from pricing indicators, currently available data on portfolio holdings do not show persistent outflows from the US (Figure 7). To obtain the most comprehensive picture, we review both EPFR and US Treasury data, which provide higher-frequency portfolio allocation estimates (EPFR data), and records of foreign portfolio holdings (Treasury data). Weekly data on flows into US portfolio investment funds showed substantial but temporary outflows in the first week or two immediately after the tariff announcements. Putting the net sales of US bonds in a historical perspective, they were lower than the 95th percentile of weekly outflows observed since 2012. However, foreign net purchases subsequently recovered, such that they remained broadly stable when taken for the months of April and May as a whole, for equities, bonds, and money markets, and added to the broad inflows observed since the elections (Figure 7, Panel A, left).
Focusing on euro area investors, there is evidence of some outflows from US bond funds by these investors, albeit the pattern has been temporary so far (Figure 7, Panel A, right).
Data from the US Treasury International Capital System (TICs) indicate that foreign investors registered over $50 billion in net sales of total US long-term securities in April 2025, $40 billion of which were in US Treasuries (Figure 7, Panel B, left). The scale of net sales of US Treasuries by foreign investors in April is comparable to those observed in November and December 2024 and stands close to the 95th percentile of outflows since 2012, albeit nowhere near the rate of outflows from US Treasuries observed during the ‘dash-for-cash’ episode that followed the onset of Covid in March 2020 (Barone et al. 2022). Sales by foreign investors of US Treasuries were driven by net sales by private sector investors ($46 billion) rather than investors from the official sector (who purchased $6 billion). Looking across different economies, the largest sales of US Treasuries in April 2025 were recorded by Canada ($57 billion), the euro area ($21 billion), and China ($7 billion).
For US equities, US TICs data indicate net sales by foreign investors of around $19 billion in April (Figure 7, Panel B, right). However, the TICs data also suggest that foreign demand for US securities has rapidly recovered. Net foreign purchases of US Treasury securities rebounded to $146 billion bonds in May, while the equivalent figure for US equity securities was $114 billion. Overall, the currently available data point to some temporary rebalancing (for example related to adjustments of hedging), which so far appears to have stabilised. At the same time, policy uncertainty remains high, signalling possible further shocks, as concerns about policies seem to persist.Figure 7 Investor flows to US assets
(USD billions)Panel A: Net flows to funds investing in the US
Panel B: Net foreign purchases of US Treasuries and equities
Source: EPFR Global, Haver Analytics, US Treasury International Capital (TIC) System and ECB staff calculations.
Note: Panel A: ‘All investors’ refers to flows to US funds by all investors, ‘EA investors’ refers to flows from euro area-domiciled investors to US funds, based on EPFR Global data. ‘Bond’ and ‘Equity’ are based on EPFR definition of country flows. Distributions are calculated since 2012. ‘April flows’ refer to the weekly flows following Trump’s tariff announcement on 2 April, ‘Covid flows’ refers to the flows in the last week of March 2020 during the ‘Dash for Cash’ episode. The last observation is for 23 July 2025 (weekly data). Panel B: Net foreign purchases of US Treasury securities and equities, based on US Treasury International Capital (TIC) System data. Distributions are calculated since 2012. ‘April flows’ refer to the April monthly flows following Trump’s tariff announcement on 2 April, ‘Covid flows’ refers to the flows in March 2020 during the ‘Dash for Cash’ episode. The last observation is May 2025 (monthly data).Authors’ note: Helpful discussions with and comments by M. Ferrari Minesso, A.-S. Manu, A. Mehl, F. Pires, T. Tomov, I. Van Robays and I. Vansteenkiste are gratefully acknowledged.
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