Category: 3. Business

  • Multidomain therapy for Alzheimer’s disease: a scoping review of cognitive decline trials | Molecular Neurodegeneration

    Multidomain therapy for Alzheimer’s disease: a scoping review of cognitive decline trials | Molecular Neurodegeneration

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  • The warning signal from bitcoin’s fall

    The warning signal from bitcoin’s fall

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

    It has taken 17 years, significant investment, a string of false dawns and multiple broken promises but finally one of the key innovations to arise from the era of the great financial crisis has done something useful: my son made dinner last night. (I was out, but I gather it was a pretty decent effort at cream of tomato soup.)

    Similarly, bitcoin — the bouncing bundle of promise and potential that launched into the world around the same time as Martin kid B — has in the past week or so actually performed a pretty useful service. Proponents have told me for years that bitcoin is money (it’s not, really), that it’s an inflation hedge (come on, now), or that it’s a haven asset for times of stress (LOL), but it turns out that its most useful function is to serve as an early warning system that markets are unwell.

    On several occasions of late, it has been a lurch lower in bitcoin that has led a decline in global stocks. It sinks, stocks follow. And it has sunk a lot, down by a third since early October to $84,000 or so. Only another $84,000 to go before it reaches fair value. 

    Stocks had regained their footing somewhat following a shaky start to the week after robust earnings results from chipmaking behemoth Nvidia on Wednesday. But it was a tumble in the price of bitcoin that soured the mood again on Thursday, and stocks quickly followed. The big beast of crypto is now mainstream investors’ go-to barometer of vibes and speculative exuberance — a genuinely useful application at last.

    This could prove to be a very valuable tool for investors as we move on from the debate around whether we are in an artificial intelligence investment bubble — most investors I’ve spoken to recently agree that we are, or at the very least that pullbacks in the coming weeks and months after a spectacular bull run are a near-certainty. Not a crash, necessarily, but a correction, maybe several of them. Instead, the key debate is about whether and when to get out.

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    The boring answer is to always be diversified, and while that is right, leaning out of big tech stocks does mean you have probably sacrificed a lot of returns this year. Those brave souls trying to time the market face a trickier task. Get out of stocks too early, and you risk losing out on the last rungs of the ladder. Being early is essentially the same thing as being wrong. 

    This is annoying, for one thing, but for the professionals, it is also potentially career-limiting. No one in fund management enjoys the conversation with their boss to explain why they have trailed behind the most basic stock indices by trying to be too clever. In addition, even if you do, by luck or skill, get out in time, figuring out when to get back in is also a fool’s errand. Too soon, and you lose money and look rather foolish. Too late and you miss those big turning points on the way back up, giving up a surprisingly large amount of performance in the process.

    At a presentation this week, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, reflected on that point. He acknowledges that a lot of “glory and hopes” are now baked into the AI trade, and he’s not “100 per cent sure” it’s going to keep running. But he chooses to be optimistic, is diversifying to try to avoid excessive reliance on a small clutch of stocks, and he’s certainly right that even if this theme does fall over, we could be months, even years away from that happening. 

    Haefele recounted that in 1999, right before the crash (not a correction, a proper crash) in dotcom stocks, he was running other people’s money and was deeply worried about a bubble, and said so to clients. At the time he was far too bearish. “We felt terrible,” he said. “We were too early and we looked like idiots for a while.” He was later vindicated, of course, but not looking like an idiot is an important, often underrated element of how markets and investment really work.

    At Amundi, the Paris-based European asset manager, the mood is similar. Chief investment officer Vincent Mortier said this week that he is concerned about pockets of excessive spending on AI technology and infrastructure. Markets could be at a turning point right now but equally they might pick up again soon.

    “You know you are in a bubble when it bursts,” Mortier said. A big drop in big tech stocks could well be a “bloodbath”, he added. But timing is everything. His answer is to hold on to those stocks for now, but to buy insurance policies against a downturn. Hedge, don’t sell, is the motto. Sacrificing a little performance on options that pay out in a downturn is a less bitter pill than selling successful stocks too early. 

    Mortier has no allocation to bitcoin but he is watching it unusually closely, as it serves as a reminder that “trees are not growing to the sky”.

    A full-on market crash at the end of this year or at some point in 2026 is still a tail risk. Pullbacks and corrections, on the other hand, are highly likely. Keeping half an eye on the bitcoin price as a gauge of the market mood might just help in navigating this very challenging period.

    katie.martin@ft.com

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  • Coming soon from Tech Tonic: Defying death

    Coming soon from Tech Tonic: Defying death

    Investors are spending billions of dollars on novel ways to extend human life through inventive treatments, therapies, and even manipulating our genes. And increasingly, it seems as though anti-ageing efforts have moved from the super rich to a mass market consumer industry. In this series, we’re covering the past, present and future of the longevity movement. We’ll be looking at where the fixation on longevity is coming from, and trying to understand the practical and ethical issues at the heart of this cutting-edge field of research.

    From Silicon Valley fantasies, to Singaporean health spas, to Colombian genetic clinics and beyond, the FT’s Hannah Kuchler and Michael Peel ask whether breakthroughs in science and technology can really help us live longer, and even stop us aging altogether.

    Free to read:

    US ‘wellness’ industry scents opportunity to go mainstream

    The quest to make young blood into a drug

    This season of Tech Tonic was produced by Josh Gabert-Doyon. The senior producer is Edwin Lane. Flo Phillips is the executive producer. Sound design by Breen Turner and Samantha Giovinco. Fact checking by Simon Greaves, Lucy Baldwin and Tara Cromie. Original music by Metaphor Music. Manuela Saragosa is the FT’s acting co-head of audio.

    The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts.

    View our accessibility guide.

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  • Pakistan loses $600 million to illegal crypto transactions as dollar sales to banks fall 23%

    Pakistan loses $600 million to illegal crypto transactions as dollar sales to banks fall 23%

    Pakistan has lost an estimated $600 million to illegal cryptocurrency transactions this year, reducing the flow of dollars into the banking system by 23% as buyers purchase cash from exchange companies and divert it into crypto through unlawful channels, Dawn reported. 

    Exchange companies say customers continue to buy dollars from licensed firms, deposit them into their foreign currency (FCY) accounts and then withdraw the cash to purchase cryptocurrencies through unregulated platforms. Between January and October, around $400 million was retained in FCY accounts, while roughly $600 million exited the system without trace.

    The Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan reported that dollar sales to banks fell significantly during the first 10 months of the year. Banks received about $4 billion from exchange firms last year over the same period, compared to only $3 billion this year. 

    “These disappeared dollars were mostly invested in cryptocurrencies,” the association’s chairman Malik Bostan said.

    Recent State Bank directives require both banks and exchange firms to avoid issuing cash dollars for FCY deposits and instead transfer the funds directly into customers’ accounts. Exchange firms now transfer money electronically or issue cheques, but the dollars are still being withdrawn from banks before being routed into crypto, Bostan added.

    Despite tight monitoring at borders with Afghanistan and Iran, the downward trend in dollar sales continued during the first four months of FY25. Exchange firms sold $280 million in July ($333 million in 2024), $163 million in August ($295 million), $186 million in September ($214 million) and $244 million in October ($297 million). Total sales fell from $1.139 billion in July–Oct 2024 to $873 million in the same period this year, a 23% decline.

    Meanwhile, State Bank data shows commercial banks’ dollar holdings increased from $4.180 billion in January to $4.625 billion, a rise of $425 million, reflecting changes in market behaviour and tighter controls on informal flows.

    Pakistan’s dollar pressures have persisted for years, leaving the country close to default in 2023 before it secured an IMF bailout. Import restrictions and crackdowns on illegal currency trading helped stabilise the situation, but rising use of cryptocurrencies now poses new challenges for policymakers trying to conserve foreign exchange.

    The government is preparing to re-enter the international debt market with fresh bonds, including Panda Bonds in China. SBP reserves currently stand at $14.551 billion and officials expect them to reach $17 billion by the end of FY26, supported by stronger remittances and an anticipated $1.2 billion IMF tranche.


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  • BP crew excavates Olympic Pipeline, yet to find cause of leak – Reuters

    1. BP crew excavates Olympic Pipeline, yet to find cause of leak  Reuters
    2. Gasoline cracks fall  TradingView
    3. Emergency Declared To Maintain Seattle Airport’s Jet Fuel Supply  Aviation Week Network
    4. Truckers up to the task of hauling jet fuel from Blaine to Sea-Tac Airport  Yahoo
    5. Seattle Airport Faces Threat of Fuel Crunch on Shut Pipeline  Bloomberg.com

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  • FOCUS: Concerns Grow over Japan’s Massive Fiscal Spending under Takaichi

    FOCUS: Concerns Grow over Japan’s Massive Fiscal Spending under Takaichi

    Society

    Tokyo, Nov. 22 (Jiji Press)–A large-scale economic package adopted by the government of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday has sparked worries about massive fiscal spending.

    The package, worth 21.3 trillion yen in terms of government spending, is the first under Takaichi, who took office a month ago.

    General-account spending under the government’s planned fiscal 2025 supplementary budget to finance measures in the package is expected to total roughly 17.7 trillion yen, up sharply from 13.9 trillion yen under the fiscal 2024 extra budget and the largest since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The new Japanese leader, who is eager to leverage fiscal spending to achieve high economic growth under the banner of “responsible and proactive” public finances, does not rule out the possibility of increasing the issuance of Japanese government bonds.

    With the Japanese government continuing to compile large-scale supplementary budgets even after the end of the pandemic, however, financial markets’ confidence in the country’s public finances and its currency is apparently starting to wane.

    [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]

    Jiji Press

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  • FOCUS: Concerns Grow over Japan’s Massive Fiscal Spending under Takaichi

    FOCUS: Concerns Grow over Japan’s Massive Fiscal Spending under Takaichi

    Society

    Tokyo, Nov. 22 (Jiji Press)–A large-scale economic package adopted by the government of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday has sparked worries about massive fiscal spending.

    The package, worth 21.3 trillion yen in terms of government spending, is the first under Takaichi, who took office a month ago.

    General-account spending under the government’s planned fiscal 2025 supplementary budget to finance measures in the package is expected to total roughly 17.7 trillion yen, up sharply from 13.9 trillion yen under the fiscal 2024 extra budget and the largest since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The new Japanese leader, who is eager to leverage fiscal spending to achieve high economic growth under the banner of “responsible and proactive” public finances, does not rule out the possibility of increasing the issuance of Japanese government bonds.

    With the Japanese government continuing to compile large-scale supplementary budgets even after the end of the pandemic, however, financial markets’ confidence in the country’s public finances and its currency is apparently starting to wane.

    [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]

    Jiji Press

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  • Fiery UPS plane crash could spell the end for MD-11 fleet if the repairs prove too costly

    Fiery UPS plane crash could spell the end for MD-11 fleet if the repairs prove too costly

    The fiery crash of a UPS plane shortly after its left engine flew off its wing and sparked a massive fire during takeoff could spell the end of the 109 remaining MD-11 airliners that have been exclusively hauling cargo for more than a decade.

    The fate of the planes won’t be determined until after UPS, FedEx and Western Global see how expensive the repairs the Federal Aviation Administration orders will be and learn whether there is a fatal flaw in their design. The package delivery companies may have already been thinking about retiring their MD-11s — which average more than 30 years old — over the next few years and replacing them with newer planes that are safer and more efficient. The FAA grounded all MD-11s and the 10 remaining related DC-10s after the crash.

    Fourteen people — including the plane’s crew of three — died after the aircraft crashed into several businesses just outside the Muhammad Ali International Airport in Louisville, Kentucky, on Nov. 4. The plane got only 30 feet (9 meters) into the air.

    Mary Schiavo, a former U.S. Department of Transportation Inspector General, said it probably won’t be worth fixing the planes when better options are available from Boeing and Airbus, though the manufacturers have such a backlog that it takes years to get a plane after it is ordered. Still, it will depend on exactly what investigators find.

    “For them to order inspections and to ground them as readily as they did makes me think that they’re worried about them,” Schiavo said.

    The National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday that its investigators discovered cracks in key parts that failed to keep the rear of the engine attached to the UPS plane’s wing. The crash reminded experts of the 1979 disaster that killed 273 after the left engine of an American Airlines jet catapulted up and over its wing after takeoff in Chicago.

    That crash led to the worldwide grounding of 274 DC-10s, the predecessor to the MD-11. The airline workhorse was allowed to return to the skies because the NTSB determined that maintenance workers improperly using a forklift to reattach the engine damaged the plane that crashed. That meant the crash wasn’t caused by a fatal design flaw even though there had already been a number of accidents involving DC-10s.

    The lugs that the NTSB said were cracked and failed in the crash earlier this month are located close to the part that failed in the 1979 crash, but they are different. Investigators will have to determine whether there is a common defect between the UPS plane and other MD-11s or whether the problem that caused the engine to fall off was unique to the plane.

    An FAA spokesperson said the agency is working with NTSB and Boeing, which bought the company that made the MD-11s in 1997, to determine what needs to be done.

    Both the DC-10 and MD-11 have some of the highest accident rates of any commercial planes, according to statistics published annually by Boeing. Twice in the 1970s, a DC-10 lost its rear cargo door in flight. The second time in 1974 caused a crash outside Paris that killed 346 people. But airlines loved the DC-10 for years, and the Air Force maintained a fleet of dozens of tankers based on the DC-10 that it flew for decades before retiring them last year.

    Formerly independent aircraft company McDonnell Douglas announced the MD-11 in 1984. The three-engine plane appeared promising with its larger capacity and longer range than the DC-10, but its performance never fully lived up to expectations, and newer planes from Boeing and Airbus eclipsed it. Schiavo said the MD-11 was “practically obsolete” when it came out compared to two-engine planes, which are cheaper to operate. Only 200 MD-11s were built between 1988 and 2000.

    Most MD-11s started out carrying passengers, but eventually airlines decided to retire the model in favor of other planes. The last MD-11 passenger flight by KLM Royal Dutch Airlines took place in 2014.

    MD-11 aircraft made up about 9% of the UPS fleet and 4% of the FedEx fleet, the companies have said. Western Global only owns 16 MD-11 planes.

    Aviation journalist Wolfgang Borgmann, who devoted one of his “Legends of Flight” books to the history of the MD-11s and DC-10, said, “I think there is still much more useful life in them.” He pointed to the B-52 bombers that are still key planes for the Air Force even though they debuted in 1955.

    “Age doesn’t matter in aviation. It’s the maintenance that counts,” said Borgmann, editor of the Aero International magazine in Germany.

    Investigators are looking at the maintenance history of the UPS plane closely. NTSB said the last time a detailed inspection was done on its engines was in 2021. A similar inspection was not done during the extended maintenance the plane underwent the month before the crash, and the plane wasn’t due for another in-depth engine inspection until after roughly 7,000 more flights. Boeing and the FAA will have to determine whether that current maintenance schedule is adequate.

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