Category: 3. Business

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Do public-market investors have the inside scoop on private credit? That’s one interpretation of the mysterious underperformance of some listed purveyors of the hottest kind of lending. Shares in Blue Owl Capital, for example, have fallen 30 per cent so far this year, leading co-founder Doug Ostrover to ask conference attendees last month: “What am I missing?”

Certainly, the growth in earnings and assets under management suggests these companies’ stock should be faring better. Blue Owl, worth $25bn, trades at roughly 20 times forward earnings, not much given its profit is expected to grow about 20 per cent a year for the next three years, according to LSEG estimates. Ares, Blackstone, Apollo and KKR all trade at roughly 30 times forward earnings, but are significantly below where they started 2025.

One justification for fund managers’ nerves is the fact that Blue Owl, which manages almost $300bn, and its peers are engaged in something that is still quite new. Private loans to companies — the product that has partly replaced the leveraged loans and junk bonds that used to fund big private equity acquisitions — have only recently started to be doled out on a huge scale. When markets grow rapidly, there’s always a risk that underwriting standards might slip.

That fear may also explain the valuation of one of Blue Owl’s listed affiliates, Blue Owl Capital Corporation. This is a so-called business development company, which raises funds from public markets and then makes loans that the broader group underwrites for a fee. Shares in the BDC at present trade at a 15 per cent discount to their net asset value.

The failures of indebted, hitherto-unregarded companies such as First Brands and Tricolor have focused investors’ minds on potential signs of strain in credit market. One potential concern is the rate at which companies start paying interest not in cash, but in other IOUs, a feature known as payment in kind. In 2024, more than one-fifth of BDC interest income came in PIKs, according to Fitch Ratings.

Direct lenders such as Blue Owl say they are prepared for market stress. Even when companies get into trouble, their recorded loss rates are often minimal, owing to high levels of collateral or other structural protections that ensure they get paid back ahead of others.

It may simply be that investors aren’t giving Ostrover the benefit of the doubt because, in relative terms, he is the new kid on the block. Blue Owl was built from scratch over the past decade and has a wide range of private-market activities beyond edgy corporate lending.

Nonetheless, public-market investors are clearly uneasy. While credit markets are typically where early signs of trouble emerge, stockholders might be the ones holding the lantern for their fixed-income brethren.  

sujeet.indap@ft.com

The HIF-2α inhibitor casdatifan demonstrated positive efficacy in the treatment of patients with late-line metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma across all monotherapy cohorts in the phase 1/1b ARC-20 trial (NCT05536141), according to a press release from the developer, Arcus Biosciences.¹

There were 4 monotherapy cohorts included in the trial (n = 121). Cohort 1: patients received 50 mg of casdatifan twice daily; cohort 2: patients received 50 mg once daily; cohort 3: patients received 100 mg via tablet once daily; and cohort 4: patients received 150 mg once daily.

As of the data cut-off of August 15, 2025, disease control, defined as either a partial response or stable disease, had been achieved by 81% of patients; 74% of patients with confirmed responses (n = 28/38) across all 4 cohorts remained on treatment.

With a median follow-up of 15.2 months in the pooled analysis of patients across all 4 cohorts, the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 12.2 months (95% CI, 9.4-20.6); the 12- and 18-month PFS rates were 50% (95% CI, 41%-59%) and 43% (95% CI, 33%-53%), respectively.

The confirmed overall response rate (ORR) was 31% (95% CI, 23%-40%). Complete responses (CRs) were observed in 1%, partial responses (PRs) in 31%, stable disease in 50%, and progressive disease in 19%. The ORR, including responses pending confirmation, was 33%, as 2 responses are pending confirmation in the 100 mg cohort. The disease control rate (DCR) was 81% (95% CI, 63%-88%). The median time to response was 2.8 months.

Additionally, in the 100 mg via tablet once daily cohort (n = 31), which was determined to be the phase 3 dose, the median follow-up was 12.4 months. The median PFS was not estimable (NE; 95% CI, 5.7-NE), with 12- and 18-month PFS rates of 60% (95% CI, 40%-75%) and NE, respectively.

The confirmed ORR was 35% (95% CI, 19%-55%), with CRs achieved by 0%, PRs achieved by 35%, stable disease achieved by 48%, and progressive disease observed in 16%.The ORR, including responses pending confirmation, was 42%, as 2 patients had unconfirmed responses. The DCR was 84% (95% CI, 66%-95%), and the median time to response was 2.6 months.

“In the 100 mg tablet cohort, our phase 3 dose and formulation, casdatifan showed a 35% confirmed ORR, with two additional responses pending confirmation, and [median] PFS had not been reached, even with a median follow-up of 1 year,” Richard Markus, MD, PhD, chief medical officer at Arcus Biosciences, said in the press release.¹ “Even when we analyzed pooled data for the 121 patients treated with casdatifan monotherapy, casdatifan showed a confirmed ORR of 31% and a median PFS of 12.2 months, which is meaningfully longer than published data from studies with the only marketed HIF-2a inhibitor and for [tyrosine kinase inhibitors] alone in a similar patient population and setting.”

ARC-20 evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic profile of casdatifan monotherapy and combination therapies in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and other solid tumors.

In the pooled analysis, 55% of patients had received at least 3 prior therapies, and 29% had received at least 4 prior lines of therapy; 71% of patients had an International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium risk factor of intermediate or poor.

Eligible patients had at least 1 measurable lesion per RECIST and an ECOG performance status of 1 or less; in the dose escalation phase, patients had any pathologically confirmed solid tumor type where no other treatment options were available and a creatinine clearance of at least 40 mL/min.²

Exclusion criteria included use of any live vaccines against infectious diseases within 4 weeks of treatment initiation, history of trauma or major surgery within 28 days of initiation, and known psychiatric or substance abuse disorders that may interfere with cooperation with the trial requirements; in all expansion cohorts, prior treatment with any HIF-2α inhibitor was not permitted.

The primary end points of the trial were the number of patients with dose-limiting toxicities and adverse events (AEs). Secondary end points included the ORR per RECIST v1.1, the plasma concentration of casdatifan, the area under the plasma concentration time curve of casdatifan, and the maximum observed plasma concentration of casdatifan.

Regarding safety, in the pooled analysis (n = 127), any serious treatment-emergent AEs (TEAEs) were experienced by 31% of patients. Grade 3 or higher TEAEs related to casdatifan were anemia (41%) and hypoxia (11%). Treatment discontinuation occurred in 9% of patients, of which 1% and 3% were caused by anemia and hypoxia, respectively.

In the phase 3 dose cohort (n = 32), any serious TEAEs occurred in 31% of patients. Grade 3 or higher casdatifan-related TEAEs were anemia (25%) and hypoxia (9%); TEAEs led to treatment discontinuation in 9%, of which 0% and 3% were caused by anemia and hypoxia.

Previously, results from ARC-20, which showed that combining casdatifan with cabozantinib (Cabometyx) achieved meaningful clinical activity in patients with clear cell RCC, were shared at the 2025 Kidney Cancer Research Summit.³

References

1. Arcus Biosciences presents new data for its HIF-2a inhibitor casdatifan and discloses first inflammation programs at investor event. News release. Arcus Biosciences. October 6, 2025. Accessed October 6, 2025. https://tinyurl.com/y9ftysac
2. A phase 1 study of AB521 monotherapy and combination therapies in renal cell carcinoma and other solid tumors (ARC-20). ClincialTrials.gov. Updated September 29, 2025. Accessed October 6, 2025. https://tinyurl.com/mr3shb2r
3. Choueiri TK, Ornstein M, Barata P, et al. Combination casdatifan plus cabozantinib in previously treated patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma: results from an expansion cohort of ARC-20 (NCT05536141). Presented at the 2025 Kidney Cancer Research Summit; July 17-18, 2025; Boston, MA.

Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament

Strasbourg, 6 October 2025

It is a pleasure to be with you again for our regular dialogue.

In recent months we have faced a period of heightened uncertainty. Yet, despite these challenges, the euro area economy has held up well.

This resilience is no coincidence. It reflects, in no small part, the strength of two achievements we sometimes take for granted: our Single Market and our single currency, the euro.

As a foundation for stability and a powerful symbol of European unity, both at home and abroad, the euro is one of Europe’s greatest assets.

But in today’s geoeconomic world, the likelihood of larger and more diverse economic shocks is expected to remain a constant feature of our environment. This prompts an important question: in this new global landscape, what role should the euro play on the world stage?

I will focus specifically on this question in my remarks today. However, let me first provide an overview of our assessment of the euro area economy and our monetary policy stance.

The outlook for the euro area

Over the first half of the year the economy grew by 0.7% in cumulative terms, thanks to resilient domestic demand. Stronger growth in the first quarter partly reflected frontloading of global trade ahead of expected tariff increases. Growth was lower in the second quarter as this effect reversed.

Sluggish export performance, driven by higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition, is expected to hold growth back for the remainder of the year. However, the effect these headwinds have on growth should fade next year. At the same time, survey indicators suggest that services continue to grow, signalling some positive underlying momentum in the economy.

Despite softening labour demand, the labour market remains a source of strength and is expected to support consumer spending. Consumer spending and investment should both benefit from our past interest rate cuts feeding through to financing conditions. Investment should also be underpinned by substantial government spending on infrastructure and defence.

As a result, ECB staff expect the economy to grow by 1.2% in 2025, by 1.0% in 2026 and by 1.3% in 2027.

Risks to economic growth have become more balanced as the likelihood of major tariff-related downside risks materialising has fallen, owing to the new trade deal. At the same time, risks remain that renewed trade tensions could further dampen exports, investment and consumption. By contrast, higher than expected defence and infrastructure spending and productivity-enhancing reforms would add to growth. Geopolitical tensions remain a major source of uncertainty.

Inflation remains close to our 2% target. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, it edged up to 2.2% in September, from 2.0% in the previous three months, mainly due to higher energy inflation. Core inflation – excluding energy and food – remained at 2.3%. Indicators of underlying inflation remain consistent with our 2% medium-term target. Real wages have caught up with levels seen before the inflation surge. Nominal wage growth was 3.9% in the second quarter, down from 4.0% in the previous quarter and 4.8% in the second quarter of last year. Forward-looking indicators, including the ECB’s wage tracker, suggest that wage growth will moderate further and contribute to easing domestic price pressures.

The ECB staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to fall from 2.4% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, owing to the stronger euro and declining labour cost pressures. Notably, the outlook for euro area inflation remains more uncertain than usual, with a still volatile global trade policy environment responsible for both upside and downside risks. At the same time, as new information has come in, the range of risks on both sides has narrowed.

The ECB’s monetary policy stance

With inflation currently at around 2% and expected to remain at around that level over the projection horizon, we can say that the disinflationary process is over. At its most recent meeting, the Governing Council therefore decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged.

We are determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at our 2% target in the medium term. We will continue to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance by following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. In particular, we will base our interest rate decisions on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Therefore, we are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

The international role of the euro

Let me now turn to the international role of the euro, your chosen topic for today’s hearing.

The international standing of currencies evolves slowly. For decades, the US dollar has been the dominant global currency, while the euro has firmly established itself as the second most used currency worldwide. This is evident in our latest report on the international role of the euro.^[1]

However, the world is in transition. Geopolitical shifts and heightened policy uncertainty remind us that no currency’s global position is guaranteed. In this changing landscape, there is a unique opportunity to create conditions to strengthen the euro’s role on the global stage.

International currencies can appreciate in times of global stress as they attract safe haven inflows. Yet, there is no mechanical relationship between the global status of a currency and its exchange rate.

At the same time, raising the euro’s global standing would bring tangible benefits. For instance, greater use of the euro in trade invoicing would reduce transaction costs for exporters and shield prices in the euro area from exchange rate volatility. Moreover, increased foreign demand for euro-denominated assets would lower borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments – in the context of the United States, this is often referred to as the “exorbitant privilege”.^[2]

We will not realise the full benefits of a stronger international role of the euro unless we adopt the right policies. To seize the benefits while avoiding the risks, Europe must do its homework and strengthen its foundations.^[3]

First, from an economic standpoint, we need to create the conditions for sustainable growth and investment. Completing the Single Market remains essential to unlocking Europe’s full potential. At the same time, we must integrate and deepen our capital markets, taking concrete steps towards completing the savings and investments union, for which an ambitious timetable is critical. We look forward to the European Commission’s forthcoming initiatives in this regard, notably the Single Market roadmap and the proposal for strengthening capital market supervision. Moreover, additional steps like joint financing of public goods – such as defence – would help establish a safe and liquid pool of EU public debt. One year on from the publication of Mario Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness, the time has come to put words into action.

Second, on an institutional level, we must safeguard investors’ trust in the institutions and policies that underpin our currency, including by upholding the rule of law and defending central bank independence.

Third, from a geopolitical perspective, we must maintain our commitment to open trade and strike new agreements with global partners. At the same time, Europe must invest in its security to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.

These responsibilities rest, first and foremost, with governments and legislators. The ECB’s role is to safeguard price stability, ensure financial stability and improve the financial and payments infrastructure that supports the euro. We are committed to continue supporting an environment in which the euro can thrive.

For example, by extending swap and repo lines to key partners, we safeguard against euro liquidity shortages abroad disrupting the smooth transmission of our monetary policy – which in turn encourages those partners to transact more in euro. Moreover, our work on settling transactions in central bank money using distributed ledger technology supports the development of Europe’s digital capital markets, while aiming to enhance wholesale payment systems.^[4] Likewise, we are working on a digital euro and pursuing initiatives to enhance cross-border payments in euro, which could potentially facilitate international cross-border transactions in the future.

Conclusion

Let me conclude.

The euro was born out of a vision of a stronger and more united Europe. Today, that vision must adapt to meet the challenges posed by profound geopolitical shifts and to seize the opportunities offered by digital transformation.

The euro can be more than the currency of a continent and a symbol of unity – it can become a global anchor of trust. But vision alone is not enough. Europe needs bold reforms to turn this vision into reality. Now is no longer the time to just discuss reforms; now is the time to implement them.

Together, let us move forward with determination to deliver the Europe our citizens deserve and to strengthen the euro for the future.

Clinical Topics:
Sports and Exercise Cardiology

Keywords:
CardiaCast, Sports and Exercise Cardiology

The chloroplast genomes of three different flower colors of P. kingianum

The assembled chloroplast genome of P. kingianum displayed the typical quadripartite structure (Fig. 1). The genome lengths for red-, green-, and white-flowered P. kingianum were 155,827 bp, 155,825 bp, and 155,792 bp, respectively. The SSC region was approximately 18,530 bp long (Table S3), and the LSC region was approximately 84,640 bp long. rRNA and tRNA gene lengths were conserved, with only a 1-bp deletion in one white-flowered tRNA gene compared to the red and green phenotypes. Overall GC content was nearly identical (37.65% for red/green vs. 37.68% for white), with less than 0.1% variation among phenotypes. Region-specific GC content was highly conserved across all genomic compartments (Table S4).

Statistical analysis of the chloroplast genome composition of three P. kingianum flower color phenotypes revealed no significant differences in color. All the samples contained 132 genes, including 86 protein-coding genes, 8 rRNA genes, and 38 tRNA genes. These genes were categorized into four groups: photosynthesis-related genes, self-replication-related genes, other genes, and genes with unknown functions (Table S5). Among them were four pseudogenes: ycf1–4. Notably, ycf1 and ycf2 underwent duplication events, and ycf3 contained two introns. Additionally, 20 genes exhibited duplications, including all rRNA genes, 8 tRNA genes, and 8 protein-coding genes. A total of 21 genes contained introns, of which 5 were tRNA genes and 16 were protein-coding genes. Both rps12 and clpP had two introns (Table S6).

To reveal the structural variations in the chloroplast genomes of three P. kingianum flower color phenotypes, we analyzed the chloroplast genome structures of eight additional species and compared them with those of P. kingianum (Fig. 2). The results revealed that the total length of the chloroplast genomes ranged from 155,549 bp (P. sibiricum) to 155,950 bp (P. cirrhifolium), which was slightly different from that of P. kingianum. Similar minor variations were observed across different regions. However, the proportion of noncoding regions in H. ogisui was significantly greater than that in Polygonatum. Compared with those of P. kingianum, the GC contents of all regions in these species exhibited slight variations, with the IR regions and the regions encoding tRNAs and rRNAs having higher GC contents than other regions. With respect to gene composition, the chloroplast genome structure was consistent across all species, with no differences in gene content, although slight variations in gene length were observed (Table S7).

Phylogenetic analysis of the genus Polygonatum and the origin of floral color traits in P. kingianum

Using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) methods, we constructed phylogenetic trees based on the common protein-coding sequences from chloroplast genomes (Fig. 3 and Supplementary Fig. 3). L. chinensis was designated as the outgroup. The results showed highly consistent topologies, with all nodes exhibiting high bootstrap values (BS) and posterior probabilities (PP), indicating strong statistical support. With L. chinensis forming a distinct clade as the outgroup, the Asparagaceae family species were clearly resolved into monophyletic groups. Heteropolygonatum and Polygonatum presented a sister relationship. Notably, within the Polygonatum clade, all species were divided into three groups by P. sibiricum: sect. Polygonatum, sect. sibiricum, and sect. Verticillata. P. kingianum belongs to the sect. Verticillata group, where the three flower color phenotypes of P. kingianum formed a distinct subclade with high bootstrap and posterior support, distinguishing them from other species within the group.

Integrated morphological and phylogenetic analyses revealed that sect. Polygonatum primarily maintains white and green floral color. In contrast, sect. Verticillata underwent floral color diversification from an ancestral white state, subsequently evolving polymorphic coloration. Within the three P. kingianum phenotypes examined, the white-flowered phenotype represents the ancestral state (consistent with sect. Verticillata), while red and green phenotypes comprise sister lineages.

Composition and comparison of repetitive sequences in P. kingianum with different floral colors

In the composition of simple sequence repeats (SSRs), 72 were identified in the red-flowered P. kingianum, 78 in the green-flowered phenotypes, and 79 in the white-flowered phenotypes, demonstrating comparable abundance. These SSRs were predominantly mononucleotide repeats, and A/T repeats were the most abundant (red: 39/54.17%, green: 44/55.70%, white: 43/55.13%). Dinucleotide repeats were the second most common, while there were no significant differences in the types or numbers of tri-, tetra-, penta-, and hexanucleotide repeats. The SSRs were primarily distributed in the LSC region, while the IR region contained the fewest. Three P. kingianum flower color phenotypes contained approximately 8 SSRs in protein-coding genes. Among the other eight species analyzed, P. multiflorum had the fewest SSRs (66), whereas H. ogisui from the Heteropolygonatum genus had the most SSRs (81). Differences in SSR counts among Polygonatum species were attributed primarily to mononucleotide repeats, and some species also contained G/C repeats in addition to A/T repeats. Nevertheless, the positional distribution of these repeats within the chloroplast genomes showed no significant variation (Fig. 4).

In the chloroplast genomes of red- and green-flowered P. kingianum, 36 and 37 long interspersed repeat sequences were detected, respectively, whereas the white-flowered phenotype presented a greater number of 41. These repeats were primarily composed of palindromic and forward types, with similar numbers and lengths, mainly between 30 and 50 bp. All phenotypes also contained a palindromic repeat longer than 10,000 bp. The four long interspersed repeats in other species presented comparable trends. However, some species in the sect. Verticillata group presented significantly greater repeat counts (ranging from 60 to 65) than did P. kingianum and other species, whereas H. ogisui contained the fewest repeats, at just 29. Although there were compositional differences in the four long interspersed repeats among the species, none of them contained complementary or reverse repeats. Tandem repeat analysis revealed 34, 30, and 36 consensus sequences in red-, green-, and white-flowered P. kingianum, respectively. These sequences were similar in position and size, ranging primarily from 10 to 25 bp. Compared with those in P. kingianum, the number of tandem repeats detected in other species showed little variation (Fig. 5).

Comparative analysis of codon usage bias in P. kingianum with different floral colors

The chloroplast genomes of red- and green-flowered P. kingianum encode 26,073 amino acids, whereas the white-flowered phenotype encodes 26,113. Among the three phenotypes, leucine (Leu) was the most common amino acid, with 2673, 2672, and 2677 codons, respectively. In contrast, cysteine (Cys) was the least common, with 304, 304, and 303 codons, respectively. Among the 61 codons encoding 20 amino acids, 30 had RSCU values greater than 1, excluding methionine (Met) and tryptophan (Trp), which each had RSCU = 1. The codon AGA, encoding arginine (Arg), had the highest RSCU value, whereas CGC, also encoding arginine, was the least preferred, with an RSCU value of 0.3. Further analysis revealed that codons ending with A/U accounted for 70.08%, 70.05%, and 69.98% of the total codons in the red, green, and white phenotypes, respectively. Comparative analysis with eight other species revealed that H. ogisui encoded significantly fewer amino acids (24,789) than other Polygonatum species did. While minor differences in codon usage preferences were observed, other results were consistent with those of Polygonatum, where codons ending in A/U also accounted for approximately 70% of the total (Fig. 6).

Boundary analysis, similarity comparison, and high-variation region identification of the chloroplast genome

The chloroplast genome boundary regions are defined as SC-IRb (JLB), IRb-SSC (JSB), SSC-IRa (JSA), and IRa-LSC (JLA). Analysis of IR boundary contraction and expansion revealed changes in the rpl22, rps19, ycf1, ndhF, trnN, and psbA genes within the boundary regions. Notably, ycf1 and ndhF crossed the IR/SSC boundary. Among Polygonatum species, these gene changes were generally consistent. In H. ogisui, however, rps15 was also detected in the JSA region, whereas ycf1 was significantly reduced and presented a narrower span across the SSC region (Fig. 7).

To investigate the chloroplast genome similarities and variations across different floral phenotypes of P. kingianum, we analyzed 11 species using mVISTA, with red-flowered P. kingianum as a reference. Visualization of the full chloroplast genome revealed high similarity among the three floral phenotypes of P. kingianum. Compared with those of other species, variations were primarily concentrated in noncoding regions, with IR regions showing greater conservation than the LSC and SSC regions. Notable differences were observed in the rps16-psbK, atpF-atpH, and trnS-UGA-rps14 regions among the P. kingianum flower color phenotypes and other species. Additionally, the psbA gene in P. odoratum exhibited greater variation compared to other species, whereas the ycf1 gene in sect. Polygonatum presented substantial differences compared with those in other species. The psbN gene presented greater variation in sect. Verticillata than in P. kingianum and other taxa (Fig. 8).

Single-nucleotide polymorphism analysis of the chloroplast genomes of 11 species revealed 109 genes (Fig. 9). Among these genes, 41 exhibited nucleotide polymorphism (Pi) values of 0, and these genes primarily consisted of tRNA genes. Using a threshold of pi = 0.005, four highly mutated genes were identified: psbM (pi = 0.00658), rpl16 (pi = 0.01283), ccsA (pi = 0.00696), and rps15 (pi = 0.00539). Additionally, 145 intergenic regions (IGSs) were identified, with 25 regions showing pi = 0. Among these, three high-mutation regions were identified with a pi ≥ 0.03: psbI-trnS-GCU, rpl22-rps19, and the highest mutation rate was observed in the rps19-psbA region.

This brief examines the electric vehicle (EV) deployment strategies of the leading automakers in the Brazilian light-duty vehicle market and compares them with approaches adopted in other major regions.

The results point to a significant gap in EV sales and sales targets between Brazil and other major global markets: China, Europe, the United States, Japan, India, and the Republic of Korea. In these regions, stricter regulations and targeted incentives have led automakers to adopt firm electrification commitments. In Brazil, by contrast, strategies remain focused on flex-fuel (gasoline–ethanol) hybrid vehicles, which have substantially higher well-to-wheel emissions than battery electric counterparts. This is especially true in Brazil, where a high share of renewables in the electricity grid translates to particularly low well-to-wheel emissions. With this delayed transition to BEVs, the national automotive industry may set transportation emissions off-course and put achievement of Brazil’s net-zero by 2050 target at risk.

Figure. EV market share by automaker, Brazil vs. other major markets’ average, 2023

This analysis supports the following policy considerations:

The absence of EV-specific public policies has allowed automakers to continue prioritizing flex-fuel hybrids and internal combustion vehicles. Without more robust policy support for electrification, Brazil could struggle to meet its climate neutrality goals.

The Green Mobility and Innovation (MOVER) Program sets a 12% energy consumption reduction target by 2027 — less ambitious than comparable international programs — and maintains tax incentives for flex-fuel hybrids until 2026.

• To align Brazil with long-term climate ambitions, Brazil could consider adopting more restrictive corporate average emissions reduction targets in the second phase of the MOVER program (2027–2032), encouraging automakers to accelerate investment in electric vehicles. A feebate or tax-based mechanism could also be introduced to support adoption of electric vehicles.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), in collaboration with the World Coastal Forum Coordination Group members Eco-Foundation Global and BirdLife International, hosted a session focused on aligning renewable energy development with biodiversity conservation and spatial planning. The dialogue fostered cross-sector cooperation and generated recommendations for sustainable coastal development. 

The Vice Mayor of Yancheng City, Mr. Wang Lianchun, the Chair of the World Coastal Forum Coordination Group, Mr Zhang Xinsheng, and IUCN Deputy Director General, Mr. Stewart Maginnis, delivered the opening remarks at the workshop. The International Advisor to the Forum, Mr Stanley Johnson, followed with a keynote speech on the international perspective of renewable energy development. 

 

 

Stewart Maginnis: “The green and just energy transition must work for both people and nature.” 

Opening the session, Stewart Maginnis, IUCN Deputy Director General, highlighted that the global shift to renewable energy must go beyond decarbonization to deliver equitable and nature-positive outcomes: 

“The Green, Just Energy Transition signifies more than the move from fossil fuels to renewables—it is our collective commitment to achieve this shift equitably for people and beneficially for nature,” Maginnis stated. 

“Tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 is critical, but this acceleration must avoid repeating past mistakes. We must integrate biodiversity safeguards and fair community engagement from the start.” 

Maginnis emphasized that limiting global warming is impossible without healthy ecosystems, noting that renewable energy infrastructure should be planned and deployed hand-in-hand with ecosystem protection. He presented IUCN’s programmatic approach to renewable energy and biodiversity, including initiatives that support Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA), spatial planning, and nature-positive business models. 

“Renewable energy and biodiversity are not opposing goals—they are interdependent. A successful energy transition must be grounded in biodiversity protection, social equity, and sustainable growth,” he concluded.  

 

 

Rachel Asante-Owusu: “We must move from avoiding harm to delivering measurable biodiversity gains.” 

During the expert dialogue, Rachel Asante-Owusu, IUCN’s Global Lead on Energy Transition, underscored the urgent need for integrated approaches to address the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss. 

Meeting the Paris Agreement target requires rapid renewable energy expansion, but this must align with the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s goal to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030,” she noted.

Asante-Owusu presented key findings from IUCN’s Renewables for Nature initiative, which has evolved from project-level mitigation guidance (Phase 1) to a broader focus on systemic solutions (Phase 2) that help governments, investors, and companies incorporate biodiversity into energy planning. 

She outlined technical guidance developed under the initiative, including pragmatic approaches to CIA and biodiversity enhancement in renewable projects: 

“Effective CIA and spatial planning are essential to meeting both climate and biodiversity targets. We must move toward more quantitative, ecologically realistic methods supported by better data collection and cross-sector collaboration.” 

On biodiversity enhancement, she emphasized: 

“Enhancement measures must be additional to mitigation and based on evidence. They should be measurable, participatory, and deliver long-term benefits for ecosystems and communities. This approach allows renewable energy projects to actively contribute to the nature-positive agenda.”