Category: 3. Business

PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are facing renewed pressure as stockpiles climb to a 19-month high, raising concerns over the earnings outlook for plantation players.

Regardless, analysts foresee prices to remain elevated between RM3,800 and RM4,500 per tonne for the rest of 2025.

CPO futures were trading at RM4,220 per tonne at market close, according to Bloomberg data.

While prices have declined year-to-date, they have gradually recovered since early May, when the contract was trading at RM3,772 per tonne.

The stronger performance comes even as Malaysian palm oil reserves are estimated to have surged nearly 10% a month earlier to around 2.23 million tonnes in July, the highest level in 19 months.

Speaking to StarBiz, Malaysia Palm Oil Association chief executive Roslin Azmy Hassan acknowledged the jump in inventory levels is weakening market sentiment, particularly as the July stockpile was recorded to be the highest since December 2023.

Roslin shared that the high inventory level was driven by stronger output and weaker demand. “CPO production in July rose by around 8% compared to June, supported by improved weather, enhanced harvesting efficiency and seasonal yield recovery,” he said.

“However, export growth was not strong enough to match supply. Key buyers like India and China reduced buying due to comfortable stock levels and more competitive pricing from Indonesia,” he added.

Looking ahead, Roslin said the inventory buildup could persist over the next two months. “The high inventory scenario is expected to persist until at least October 2025, coinciding with the seasonal peak production period.

“Unless there are major weather disruptions or a sharp demand recovery, stock levels may only begin to ease in the fourth quarter,” he added.

CIMB Securities head of research Ivy Ng Lee Fang shared a similar outlook, saying CPO inventories are likely to remain high in the near term. “We expect the CPO price to trade between RM3,800 and RM4,300 per tonne,” she said.

Ng added that the downside would be cushioned by slower palm oil output growth and stronger biodiesel demand in Indonesia, while the upside is capped by rising stock levels.

She pointed out that two key developments to watch are whether Indonesia raises its biodiesel blend from B40 to B45 or B50, and whether the United States increases its biodiesel incentives.

She also flagged potential risks from weather conditions.

“For example, the recent severe haze condition in Indonesia could affect palm oil supply if it prolongs,” she said.

BIMB Securities analyst Saffa Amanina echoed the near-term cautious tone, citing elevated stockpiles that are likely to remain above two million tonnes through September.

“We expect CPO prices to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated inventory levels, which are likely to stay above two million tonnes through September,” she said.

She said this was due to seasonal peak production in both Malaysia and Indonesia, alongside the upcoming soybean harvest in the United States, which may weigh on sentiment across the broader vegetable oil market.

“We estimate that CPO prices could temporarily soften, with downside risk to briefly dip to RM3,700 per tonne,” she said.

Still, she believes the decline will be limited by restocking demand from India ahead of Deepavali.

Amanina projects that prices will recover towards the year-end, trading between RM4,100 and RM4,200 per tonne, supported by monsoon-related supply disruptions.

She added that price pressures could also stem from the narrowing CPO-soybean oil price gap, in-house expectation of a stronger ringgit, and a wider palm oil-gas oil spread, which may reduce biodiesel blending incentives.

Potential support, on the other hand, may come from changes in US biofuel targets and European restocking ahead of the European Union’s deforestation regulation.

While most experts are cautious in the short term, some are less concerned. A former Malaysian palm oil executive downplayed fears of oversupply, saying the current stockpile levels are not unusually high.

“While end stocks are at 2.2 to 2.3 million tonnes, it is not really high. The market has just gotten used to seeing below two million tonnes. This level should be seen as neutral and I don’t expect prices to react dramatically,” he said.

He pointed out that the supply situation may appear elevated on paper, but regional consumption patterns are shifting.

For instance, Indonesia has been using more of its palm oil locally, leaving less for export. “The market is not exactly overflowing,” he said.

While he expects the current situation to linger for a bit, he remains bullish that prices will hold steady.

Looking ahead, the palm oil expert said several factors could influence the market in the second half of 2025, including production trends in both Malaysia and Indonesia, developments in the biodiesel segment, and policy decisions from the United States.

“The market is expecting a big peak in production, but I remain cautiously optimistic. My pragmatism tells me it may not be as high as anticipated,” he said.

He added that while Indonesia’s biodiesel blending hit a strong 95% realisation rate in the first half of the year, there have been some hiccups recently.

“If blending volumes dip, we could see prices take a hit,” he said, noting that the industry is also keeping a close watch on the rollout of the B50 biodiesel programme.

Meanwhile, the upcoming announcement of the US Renewable Volume Obligations could also play a role in shaping global vegetable oil demand.

“While end stocks might look steady, these factors could still keep the market lively. I would like to think of it as a steady raft with a few interesting currents,” he said.

On pricing, he expects CPO prices to remain firm in the near term, trading within a favourable range of RM4,100 to RM4,500 per tonne.

“I’m looking at plus or minus 5%, but if there are other intertwined factors interplaying, then we can raise it to plus or minus 10%,” he said.

As upfront treatment approaches in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) become increasingly less reliant on standard chemotherapy agents in favor of BTK inhibitor–based regimens, it is even more crucial to understand and identify the appropriate strategies for patients with newly diagnosed vs relapsed/refractory disease, according to Kathleen A. Dorritie, MD.

Two studies that have helped move the needle in treatment-naive CLL are the phase 3 AMPLIFY (NCT03836261) and ELEVATE-TN (NCT02475681) trials, Dorritie noted. In the AMPLIFY trial, at a median follow-up of 40.8 months, the estimated 36-month progression-free survival (PFS) was 76.5%, 83.1%, and 66.5% for patients with newly diagnosed CLL treated with acalabrutinib (Calquence) plus venetoclax (Venclexta) vs acalabrutinib plus venetoclax/obinutuzumab (Gazyva) vs chemoimmunotherapy, respectively.¹ Respective overall survival rates were 94.1%, 87.7%, and 85.9%.

In ELEVATE-TN, after 6 years of follow-up, the median PFS was not reached with acalabrutinib/obinutuzumab or acalabrutinib monotherapy; in contrast, the median PFS was 27.8 months in the chlorambucil/obinutuzumab arm (P < .0001).² The estimated 72-month overall PFS rates in these respective arms were 78.0%, 61.5%, and 17.2%. Notably, acalabrutinib/obinutuzumab improved PFS vs acalabrutinib monotherapy (HR, 0.58; P = .0229).

“AMPLIFY and ELEVATE-TN both showed that patients who received targeted therapy had improved outcomes compared with those who received standard chemoimmunotherapy,” Dorritie explained during an interview with OncLive®.

In the interview, Dorritie expanded on 2 case studies of patients with CLL, both of which she presented as chair of a recent State of the Science Summit™ on hematologic malignancies. Dorritie also highlighted differences in treatment strategies for patients with newly diagnosed vs relapsed/refractory CLL, and the shift towards chemotherapy-free regimens in CLL.

Dorritie is a hematologist/oncologist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Hillman Cancer Center in Pennsylvania.

OncLive: What clinical case scenarios were discussed at the Summit?

Dorritie: In a clinical case scenario,[we have to consider:] what is the optimal approach for newly diagnosed CLL, particularly for young patients. The SOC is changing to the point where it’s almost chemotherapy-free regimens for all. One of the case studies I presented in the newly diagnosed setting was asking whether we are ready for triplet combination therapy or are not quite there yet.

In the other case study, we focused on an older patient who had had some exposure to prior targeted agents and had relapsed multiple times, and [we identified] what the best option might be in the relapsed/refractory setting.

How does treatment decision-making differ for patients who are newly diagnosed vs those who have received multiple lines of therapy?

In the newly diagnosed setting, [the SOC] has really changed with the results from studies like AMPLIFY and ELEVATE-TN, [both of which assessed a] treatment-naive patient population. Evidence from both AMPLIFY and ELEVATE-TN has directed the incorporation of BTK inhibitors and the BCL2 inhibitor venetoclax in the upfront treatment setting. [These are] the new SOC, and there are very few patients for whom we would choose a chemotherapy regimen upfront.

In the relapsed/refractory setting, we also discussed how we sequence therapies, which comes down to what patients had been previously treated with. How did they respond to those therapies? Were there certain toxicities that they [encountered with] a specific therapy? That helps guide what our next choice is regarding that line of treatment.

How are chemotherapy-free regimens shifting the CLL treatment paradigm?

[Historically,] in certain younger patients who were fit, we may still opt for a regimen like fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab [Rituxan], for example, or even bendamustine/rituximab [BR]. However, now we have multiple studies [showing that] the outcomes of PFS were better in patients who received the more targeted therapy. [This] includes AMPLIFY, which looked at the combination of acalabrutinib and venetoclax [with or without] obinutuzumab; the ELEVATE-TN study, which looked at acalabrutinib [with or without] obinutuzumab vs chlorambucil [plus] obinutuzumab; and the [phase 3] SEQUOIA study [NCT03336333] which compared zanubrutinib [Brukinsa] vs BR. [Additionally,] we’ve taken chemoimmunotherapy off the table for the vast majority of patients with CLL, which is a great and huge paradigm shift.

References

• Brown JR, Seymour JF, Jurczak W, et al. Fixed-duration acalabrutinib combinations in untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia. N Engl J Med. 2025;392(8):748-762. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2409804
• Sharman JP, Egyed M, Jurczak W, et al. Acalabrutinib-obinutuzumab improves survival vs chemoimmunotherapy in treatment-naive CLL in the 6-year follow-up of ELEVATE-TN. Blood. Published online April 8, 2025. doi:10.1182/blood.2024024476

A Northeastern grad student in Vancouver used lessons from competitive Pokémon to create a tool that helps entrepreneurs fairly split ownership of a new company.

When Norman Yuan heard about the project for his computer science capstone course, he immediately thought of Pokémon.

Yuan is a graduate student at Northeastern University’s Vancouver campus, where the CoFounders Hub — a startup support center — is also embedded with offices on-site.

When the CoFounders Hub needed a new tool to help business cofounders divide equity, they turned to Northeastern students.

That’s when Yuan had his lightning bolt moment.

“When I first heard the idea, I already knew how I was going to make it,” he says.

A competitive Pokémon video game player, Yuan uses Pokémon calculators to predict the outcome of in-game battles by entering a team’s stats, moves and abilities, and simulating the battles.

“It’s the same idea as assembling a team of cofounders to build a startup,” Yuan says.

Except that, when assigning ownership equity, business developers don’t usually have to consider their cofounders’ species or attack speed.

There are as many as 50 different factors to consider when deciding how to split financial interest in a new business, says Tanis Jorge, founder of the CoFounders Hub. These include core issues like how much money and time the founders are investing, whether either is leaving a steady job, or who is bringing crucial knowledge to the table, Jorge says.

Working with Northeastern associate teaching professor Ildar Akhmetov, Jorge presented the equity calculator concept to five students in Akhmetov’s capstone course last fall. She asked them to design prototypes for the tool and shared insights based on her experience building successful cofounder partnerships. 

Jorge is the author of The Cofounder’s Handbook, a guide for entrepreneurs establishing business partnerships.

“Tanis sent us a Google spreadsheet with all the factors she wanted to be included in the calculator,” Yuan says.

He took those factors and created a web app that lists each with a field for cofounders to assign values to the elements they’re contributing — office space, network connections, technical expertise — as well as sacrifices made, such as relocating or quitting a steady job.

This is where the conversations get down to the nitty-gritty, Jorge says. While it may be tempting to agree on a 50-50 equity arrangement on the back of a napkin, she says, taking a hard look at who’s contributing what will pay off later.