Category: 3. Business

  • Claims about genetic superiority ignore the real drivers of human inequality

    Claims about genetic superiority ignore the real drivers of human inequality

    Political leaders like United States President Donald Trump and business oligarchs like Elon Musk have increasingly suggested that human behaviour and social outcomes are rooted in genetics.

    Trump has repeatedly suggested that problematic behaviours are genetic and inherent, while Musk has advocated for “intelligent” people to have children. His Grokipedia even frames racist concepts like racial nationalism positively while drawing on eugenic ideas, claiming that preserving distinct racial genetic profiles “maximizes individuals’ inclusive fitness.”

    These arguments are taking us back to one of the darkest periods in human intellectual history: when eugenics was alive and well. Eugenics is the mistaken belief that a society’s genetic pool can be “improved” by limiting the reproduction of those deemed inferior and encouraging the breeding of those deemed superior.

    Eugenics is now regarded as “the most egregious example of the destructive misuse of science in all human history,” as evolutionary biologist Richard Prum put it.

    Yet this pseudoscientific way of thinking has not disappeared. It has re-emerged in new forms, primarily among tech capitalists and conservative politicians advocating for policies like forced migration, fertility assistance and genetic engineering to create a “fitter” nation.




    Read more:
    Racism never went away – it simply changed shape


    In our recent book, The American Gene: Unnatural Selection Along Class, Race, and Gender Lines, we show that differences in complex behavioural traits among groups are not the natural outcome of inborn human biology, but the product of systemic economic inequality.

    We can illustrate this by focusing on two of the most popularly discussed in the nature-versus-nurture debate: health and intelligence.

    The limits of the human genome

    The US$3 billion Human Genome Project set out to identify “the key genes underlying the great medical scourges of humankind.” Bill Clinton called it “the most important, most wondrous map ever produced” when he was U.S. president.

    Yet except for rare diseases caused by one or a few genes, genomic data has had limited success in predicting complex diseases like heart disease, cancer, mental health disorders or addiction.

    Biologist Francis S. Collins speaks in Williamstown, Mass., in 2006. Collins led the international Human Genome Project that finished mapping the 3.1 billion chemical base pairs in humanity’s DNA in 2003.
    (AP Photo/Paul Franz)

    Scientists have found dozens of genetic variations associated with complex diseases, but the combined effects of these genes have explained very little about heritable risk. Even with the complete human genome sequenced, predicting health outcomes from genetics has proven challenging.

    In fact, in 2013, the Food and Drug Administration ordered 23andMe to stop marketing certain genetic disease risk information to consumers until they received regulatory clearance.

    Environment shapes health more than genes

    Some scientists, including molecular biologist James Watson, the first director of the Human Genome Project and a disgraced Nobel laureate, have argued that genetics largely determine health hierarchies.

    He once suggested that New Jersey’s high cancer rates were mostly due to residents’ “genetic constitution” rather than environmental factors.

    This logic is flawed. It would suggest that the people of New Jersey had uniquely cancer-prone DNA compared to the rest of the population, which seems unlikely. Further undermining Watson’s theory is the fact that cancer rates followed the changing location of the chemical industry, which fled New Jersey’s increasingly costly environmental regulations for Louisiana.

    “Cancer Alley” in Baton Rouge, Louisiana — an 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River lined with some 200 fossil fuel and petrochemical production plants — became home to the nation’s highest cancer rates, affecting the region’s disproportionate Black and Brown population.

    In the words of bio-statistician Melanie Goodman: “ZIP Code is a better predictor of health than genetic code.”

    Further evidence against genetic determinism comes from migrant studies. Research has found ethnic groups with low breast cancer rates in their home countries, such as China, Japan and the Philippines, often experience higher disease rates after migration.

    Similar patterns appear in studies of coronary heart disease among people of Japanese ancestry who lived in Japan, Hawaii and California. Those who adopted more westernized lifestyles had higher rates of disease.

    Intelligence is a product of opportunity

    Researchers like Richard Hernstein, Charles Murray, David Reich and Nicholas Wade have insisted on a link between genetics, race or ethnicity, and what they describe as a hierarchy of intelligence.

    In these arguments, Ashkenazi Jews are often placed at the top of the hierarchy, while people of African descent are placed lower. Although the discussion always revolves around genetic inheritance, they have yet to identify the specific genes that would justify this hierarchy.

    Where proponents attempted to provide empirical support, the argument often rested on a residual claim: even after accounting for all the social variables that might influence intelligence, an unexplained component remained and was therefore presumed to be genetic.

    On the other side of the debate are researchers like James Flynn, who argued intelligence is determined more by environment than genetics.

    A TEDTalk by researcher James Flynn about why our IQ levels are higher than our grandparents’.

    Flynn documented a steady rise in intelligence test scores across the 20th century in a pattern now known as the “Flynn Effect.” He found that between 1933 and 1983, American IQs increased by around three points per decade. He argued people’s minds were sharpened by better education and more intellectually demanding jobs and hobbies.

    Flynn also found larger impacts in lower-income nations. Kenya and several Caribbean nations, for example, had much larger increases in IQ scores than Scandinavian countries because, he argued, the conditions for learning had improved more in the former nations than the latter.

    Lived experience influences our genes

    Advances in the revolutionary field of epigenetics have shifted the nature-versus-nurture debate by identifying a pathway through which lived experience can impact what were previously thought to be fixed processes.

    Epigenetics refers to mechanisms that affect gene expression — how much a gene is used or not — without changing the DNA sequence itself. These mechanisms function somewhat like a dimmer switch, turning genes on and off, or adjusting the intensity of their effects.

    Growing evidence suggests that epigenetic mechanisms are impacted by the conditions in which people live, which in turn influence human traits and outcomes. Some of these epigenetic changes may even be transmitted across generations.

    In other words, nurture has a direct influence on nature.

    Claims about the supposed genetic superiority of some human beings over others rarely account for the complexity of these additional types of inheritance.

    Opportunity matters more than genetics

    A growing body of research suggests that social and economic opportunity plays a far greater role in shaping human outcomes than genetic inheritance.

    As biologist Siddhartha Mukherjee pointed out, “it is impossible to ascertain any human, genetic potential without first equalizing environments.”

    Decades earlier, Henry Wallace, who served as vice-president under Franklin D. Roosevelt, similarly suggested that if children from rich and poor families were given the same food clothing, education, care and protection, class lines would likely disappear.

    Historical evidence supports this view. Our research shows that when structural barriers are reduced and marginalized groups have the same opportunities as more privileged groups, inequalities shrink dramatically.

    By way of example, the economic and social changes following U.S. civil rights legislation led to major improvements in the health, education and income of Black Americans — despite no change in their genetic makeup — highlighting the role of structural racism and social policy.

    People should be significantly more concerned with the effects of the policies imposed by the Trumps and Musks of the world than the DNA passed on by their parents.

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  • A Look At Canadian National Railway’s Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

    A Look At Canadian National Railway’s Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

    Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.

    Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) has been under pressure recently, with the share price showing a 0.5% decline over the past day and a 10.4% decline over the past month, despite roughly flat returns over the past 3 months.

    At a last close of CA$135.45, the company reports CA$17.3b in revenue and CA$4.7b in net income, with annual revenue growth of 4.2%, net income growth of 5.9%, and a value score of 4.

    See our latest analysis for Canadian National Railway.

    The recent 10.4% 1 month share price return decline, alongside a slightly negative year to date share price return and modest 1 year total shareholder return of 0.4%, points to fading momentum as investors reassess growth prospects and risk.

    If you are comparing Canadian National Railway with other infrastructure related plays, it could be a useful time to scan power and grid names using our 26 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    With a recent pullback, a 10% intrinsic discount estimate and a price target above the current CA$135.45 level, you need to ask if Canadian National Railway is now undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

    The narrative fair value of CA$132.87 sits slightly below the recent CA$135.45 share price, which puts the discussion firmly on how Canadian National Railway earns its premium.

    CN’s business is built on a foundation that cannot be duplicated. Its 20,000-mile rail network is a natural oligopoly, protected by immense barriers to entry, namely, the astronomical cost and regulatory impossibility of building a competing transcontinental railroad. This “wide moat” is further strengthened by:

    Read the complete narrative.

    The narrative leans heavily on resilient margins, disciplined efficiency and a future earnings multiple more often associated with faster growing sectors. Curious which long term revenue and profit assumptions sit underneath that CA$132.87 fair value and how they balance cyclical freight risks against high returns on equity? The full narrative lays out those numbers in black and white.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$132.87 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

    However, you still need to weigh the risk that reshoring unfolds more slowly than expected, and that labour or weather disruptions keep pressuring freight volumes and costs.

    Find out about the key risks to this Canadian National Railway narrative.

    The narrative-based fair value of CA$132.87 points to a 1.9% premium at the current CA$135.45 share price, yet the market is pricing Canadian National Railway at a P/E of 17.5x. That sits well below peers at 24x, the North American Transportation average of 26.2x, and a fair ratio of 26.9x. For investors, that kind of gap can look like a valuation cushion, but it raises the question of whether it reflects real business risks or a potential opportunity if earnings remain stable.

    See what the numbers say about this price, find out in our valuation breakdown See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    TSX:CNR P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026

    With sentiment clearly mixed, the real question is how you see the balance between concern and optimism. Move quickly and review the full breakdown of 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

    If CNR has sharpened your focus on quality and price, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

    Companies discussed in this article include CNR.TO.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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  • Menstrual products prices skyrocketing from inflation, tariffs

    Menstrual products prices skyrocketing from inflation, tariffs

    Always products are displayed on a shelf in a supermarket in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 29, 2024. 

    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    Rising inflation and ever-changing tariff policies have led to higher prices across store shelves over the past few years, squeezing consumers’ budgets.

    An often overlooked example: menstrual products.

    The average price of menstrual products, including sanitary pads and tampons, has risen nearly 40% since 2020, from roughly $5.37 per unit to $7.43 per unit, according to February data from Chicago-based market research firm Circana.

    Dollar sales from menstrual products have grown by nearly 30% over that same period, according to Circana.

    But at the same time, sales of menstrual products — which broadly includes pads, tampons, liners and more — have seen a roughly 6% decrease since 2022, falling incrementally each year, according to data from NielsenIQ.

    The data analytics company noted that items across the store have seen average unit price increases, with the dollar volume of consumer packaged goods at large rising 2.7% year-to-date. Those price increases are in line with climbing inflation, with the latest consumer price index in February showing a 2.4% annual rise.

    The latest CPI data found that inflation in personal care products in the U.S. has jumped dramatically, up 22.1% in February from January 2020.

    But because menstrual products are a necessity for a large portion of the population, those costs may be hurting consumers.

    “I do think that we’re at a point where consumers in general are having to choose whether they can buy food for their family, or buy prescriptions for their family. Some things that we do typically define as a necessity, people are finding alternatives for or going without,” said Sarah Broyd, a partner with consultancy firm Clarkston Consulting.

    Broyd said the gap between higher prices and declining sales shows consumers may be searching for alternatives out of necessity.

    Menstrual products haven’t just been hit by inflation, either. According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020.

    The U.S. imported the majority of its menstrual products from Canada, China and Mexico in 2024, according to the World Bank. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on all three of those countries at varying levels over the past year.

    Those added costs come on top of the so-called “pink tax,” where some states place a sales tax on menstrual products. According to 2025 data from Statista, Tennessee, Mississippi and Indiana have the highest sales tax on menstrual products at 7%. Products that are deemed “medical devices” are often excluded from sales taxes.

    ‘A subscription service to be a woman’

    For 30-year-old Dafna Diamant, the rising price of menstrual products has become noticeable at the cash register and a drag on her monthly expenses.

    The New York resident said she’s noticed her usual pack of roughly 18 tampons rise to somewhere around $25, especially over the past year.

    “It’s crazy, and it just feels like as a woman, you have to pay sometimes $50 every couple months,” Diamant told CNBC. “And for some people, it takes a toll on the income.”

    Diamant said she feels particularly frustrated because it’s not a monthly expense she can go without. She often buys store-brand period products at retailers like CVS and Walgreens, yet she said she’s still shocked by the sticker price.

    “It still feels like a subscription service to be a woman,” Diamant told CNBC. “You have to pay every month to be fertile.”

    Even larger companies have felt the effects. Procter & Gamble, the parent company of menstrual product brand Always, said in July that it was raising prices on 25% of its personal care and household products due to a $1 billion total annual tariff impact. It manufactures its Always products across facilities in Maine, Utah and Canada, according to the company.

    P&G declined to comment for this story.

    Kimberly-Clark, the maker of menstrual product brand Kotex, said on an earnings call in April that the company incurred a total of $300 million in gross costs from tariffs, with more than half of that related to tariffs on China. The company did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

    Broyd, the partner at Clarkston Consulting, said menstrual products have been hit with a “triple whammy” of rising raw material costs, inflation across energy and supply chains, and cross-border friction from tariffs.

    “When you think about plastic and pulp and some of the main components of feminine care products, they’re largely probably coming from overseas and then getting hit with that much more of tariffs,” Broyd said.

    She added that these tariffs are on top of already alleged higher levies on other women’s products, the subject of Congress’ Pink Tariffs Study Act introduced last year by Democrats to determine whether the U.S. tariff system is “regressive” or has a “gender bias.”

    As prices continue to shoot up, Broyd said she believes companies will continue to reevaluate their portfolios and potentially sell off their feminine care segments to focus on businesses with higher margins. In November, Edgewell Personal Care sold its feminine care business to a company in Sweden for $340 million.

    “You’re seeing these more niche, more startup type brands that are popping up in stores. … That’s the biggest growth,” Broyd said. “People that have the ability to flex up and buy more organic or products that they trust, they’ll spend that price premium. But for other consumers that don’t have the discretionary income to do that, they’re going to trade down and go private label, or go without.”

    The rise of reusables

    Diamant said she and her friends are now trying period underwear instead of single-use products to streamline their expenses.

    A growing number of people have been trying reusable period products, primarily because they’re environmentally friendly and cheaper.

    Major manufacturers have often relied on brand loyalty for their products, which could take a hit if consumers turn to alternatives.

    “If you’re in fem care, you’re going to be using Kotex for 40 years. If you’re in Depend, you’re going to be using Depend for 40 years, right?” Kimberly-Clark CEO Michael Hsu said on a November earnings call. “There is long-duration frequency. There’s a lot of expenditure for consumers, and so because of that, they want to have an ongoing relation with us.”

    Saalt, a reusable period products company offering cups, discs and underwear, said it estimates that 16% to 20% of U.S. consumers have tried or used reusable menstrual products, consisting of mostly younger consumers.

    “Affordability is huge,” CEO Cherie Hoeger told CNBC. “When you look at our product, a cup or disc can last 10 years, and our product is only in the $30 price range. … They’re able to save up to $1,800 on the lifespan of that cup or disc, and that’s on the low end.”

    Saalt, which launched in 2018, hit revenues of eight figures in its third year of business, Hoeger said. The company declined to disclose details of its financials, but she said demand has grown year-over-year since it launched.

    Among Generation Z, Hoeger said the top reason for switching to reusables is pricing.

    “They usually have some affinity toward sustainability and climate change, but it’s never their number one,” Hoeger said.

    The rise of reusables may be contributing to the declining sales of single-use period products over the past few years. It also coincides with recent studies indicating that tampons could contain lead or other harmful ingredients. The Food and Drug Administration investigated the presence of metals and determined there was no risk.

    Riding that momentum, other companies like Knix, MeLuna, Flex and more have entered the reusables space and garnered growing market share as consumers search for alternatives.

    “Affordability is the crux; it’s the root problem,” Hoeger said. “Without affordability for these period products, you have real economic consequences for women to happen.”

    Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

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  • Active Learning in Biostatistics Education for Medical Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Active Learning in Biostatistics Education for Medical Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

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  • Is BASF (XTRA:BAS) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Weakness?

    Is BASF (XTRA:BAS) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Weakness?

    Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.

    • If you are wondering whether BASF at around €46.00 is offering fair value or a possible bargain, you are in the right place for a clear, valuation focused look at the stock.

    • The share price has slipped over the last week and month, with a 4.9% decline over 7 days and a 5.9% decline over 30 days, while the 1 year return sits at a 4.0% decline and the 3 year return at a 21.7% gain.

    • Recent coverage around BASF has focused on its role in the wider chemicals sector and how investors are weighing cyclical risks against its size and diversification. This context helps explain why the stock has had mixed returns across different timeframes rather than a single clear trend.

    • BASF currently has a value score of 2/6, which reflects the number of checks where it screens as undervalued. The rest of this article will compare different valuation approaches before finishing with a broader way to think about what that score really means for you.

    BASF scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

    A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a company may generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today, so you can compare that stream of cash to the current share price.

    For BASF, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about €630.3m. Analysts and internal estimates project free cash flow reaching €3.9b by 2030, with interim projections such as €1.9b in 2026 and €2.7b in 2028. These figures are combined and discounted using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which places more weight on near term forecasts and then tapers growth in later years.

    On this basis, the estimated intrinsic value comes out at about €110.27 per share. Compared with the current share price of roughly €46.00, the model output implies the shares trade at about a 58.3% discount to this DCF estimate. On this method alone, the stock screens as materially undervalued.

    Result: UNDERVALUED

    Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BASF is undervalued by 58.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 228 more high quality undervalued stocks.

    BAS Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026

    Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BASF.

    For a profitable company like BASF, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for the shares to the earnings the business is currently generating. It gives a quick sense of how many euros investors are willing to pay today for each euro of earnings.

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  • Should investors consider Rolls-Royce shares as war rocks global markets?

    Should investors consider Rolls-Royce shares as war rocks global markets?

    Image source: Getty Images

    Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) shares have fallen 10% in the last month. That’s a modest dip, relative to their recent stellar run. But is it a rare opportunity to buy them at a reduced price?

    The tragedy of the war in Iran has driven up energy prices, disrupted flights and rattled the global economy. After a brilliant run where the shares only went one way, the FTSE 100’s star performer suddenly has multiple forces pulling it in different directions.

    Let’s start with the positives for the group, if not the world. Rolls-Royce has a significant defence division, and this terrible geopolitical instability should boost military spending. With European nations already under pressure to rearm, that side of the business could see increased demand.

    Rolls also has long-term growth potential in building small modular reactors, better known as mini-nuclear plants. If the conflict triggers a prolonged oil and gas shock, governments may be tempted to order fleets of mini-nukes to secure reliable domestic power sources. The group’s power systems division could benefit too, particularly if energy resilience becomes a bigger priority for industry.

    But there are just as many risks. The biggest is aviation. Rolls-Royce makes its money not just from selling engines, but from long-term servicing contracts based on hours flown. If planes don’t fly, it doesn’t get paid.

    That’s a real concern right now. British Airways has suspended flights to Dubai until at least 31 May. If disruption drags on or spreads, global flight activity could take a hit. That would directly impact Rolls-Royce’s most important revenue stream. There’s also the broader economic risk. If soaring oil prices trigger a global slowdown, demand for air travel could weaken further. That would be a double blow.

    Then there’s a more indirect threat. Rolls-Royce has been positioning itself to benefit from the rapid growth of data centres, supplying power systems to support the boom in artificial intelligence. But if that AI-driven investment cycle stalls, demand could fall short of expectations. Funding AI could be harder if interest rates rise and investor sentiment plummets. So that’s another variable investors need to consider.

    Rolls-Royce shares have been on a remarkable run, but have looked expensive for some time. The price-to-earnings ratio hit 65 after 2025’s blockbuster results. After recent troubles, it’s dipped to 40. Cheaper, but far from cheap. So where does that leave investors?

    Rolls-Royce is juggling a lot of moving parts. Defence and energy could lift the stock. Aviation and the wider economy could drag it down. The outcome depends heavily on events in the Middle East.

    The company has transformed itself under CEO Tufan Erginbilgic. I think the shares are well worth considering with a long-term view, and I’m not going to sell my own stake. But I won’t rush to buy more at today’s valuation. Investors could consider drip-feeding money in, or better still, wait to see if market volatility throws up a better entry point.

    Many FTSE 100 stocks have been a hit a lot harder than Rolls-Royce. I can see plenty more opportunities out there, and they’re nearly all cheaper too…

    The post Should investors consider Rolls-Royce shares as war rocks global markets? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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    Harvey Jones has positions in Rolls-Royce Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Rolls-Royce Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

    Motley Fool UK 2026

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  • ‘We can create hype’: H&M’s UK boss on its commitment to the high street | Retail industry

    ‘We can create hype’: H&M’s UK boss on its commitment to the high street | Retail industry

    Almost exactly 50 years after H&M opened its first British store, the doors on its newest, in Brighton, swung open this week and the Swedish fashion company’s UK boss is determined to keep investing in the nation’s high streets despite its struggles.

    In 1976, H&M opened in the brand-new Brent Cross shopping centre, the first American-style out of town mall to grace these shores. Its opening was such an event that the then Prince Charles attended.

    The Brighton store, which takes the H&M brand’s total in the UK to 197, is bristling with technology, including handheld scanners on self-service checkouts and a system that can find the exact location of a product in the shop, using radio-frequency tags. Shoppers can still simply try on a dress and buy it at a till – just as in 1976.

    “We are fully committed to investing in our physical store portfolio because demand is there,” says Karen O’Rourke, who was born the same year H&M entered her home country and took over as the UK boss of the Swedish firm last year.

    “The high street is still very much alive and thriving. Post-pandemic, people are looking for more than just a transaction.”

    H&M’s new Brighton store is bristling with technology alongside the traditional racks of clothes. Photograph: H&M

    The H&M group was founded by the Swedish entrepreneur Erling Persson in 1947, when he opened a womenswear store in Västerås named Hennes (Swedish for “hers”), inspired by a trip to New York. The group changed its name to Hennes & Mauritz in 1968 when it began selling menswear, and rebranded to its initials in 1974, the year it listed on the Stockholm stock exchange.

    The company now has 4,100 stores across 80 countries, with about 230 in the UK once its other brands, such as Cos, & Other Stories, Weekday and Arket, are included.

    Physical shops are a key part of the brand’s efforts to fight back against cut-price rivals such as Shein and Temu which are aiming to take a big chunk out of the more traditional players’ sales.

    Romeo Beckham in an H&M catwalk show last year during London fashion week, its first catwalk show since 2018.
    Photograph: Isabel Infantes/Reuters

    H&M’s stores host events such as designer tie-ups and special product lines. With almost a quarter of the UK population now signed up to H&M’s loyalty scheme, that creates demand not just for special discounts but first dibs on some products and activities.

    O’Rourke says that far from only shopping online, young people want to interact with brands with which they have an affinity.

    “This is where the brand comes to life, and this is where transaction meets experience. I think the customer expects more now than just being able to buy [something] and leave the store.”

    Loyalty scheme members, for example, were among thousands in the audience during London fashion week in September 2024 when the brand enlisted the Brat star Charli xcx for a 30-minute performance in Stratford.

    Then, last September, H&M created its own venue in an office off the Strand in central London for its first catwalk show since 2018, with Romeo Beckham modelling and a performance by the singer Lola Young.

    “We still can create queues, we can create hype,” says O’Rourke. “There is a demand for that physical experience and to be part of something that’s happening.”

    This spring, the designer Stella McCartney will launch her second collaboration with H&M – 20 years after the first. The tie-up includes an “insights board”, which brings together different voices and perspectives from across the fashion industry to raise awareness of animal welfare and come up with new ideas on sustainability. Such issues are a hot topic among younger shoppers and H&M has tried to tap into this with a handful of stores offering repair services, as well as investments in recycled and recyclable fabrics.

    Karen O’Rourke says young people want to interact with brands with which they have an affinity. Photograph: H&M

    After Saturday jobs in a chemist and at the Wallis clothing chain, O’Rourke wanted to open her own fashion store. Instead, she is now running almost 200.

    Her first job after studying fashion and textiles at university was working at H&M, creating product displays as a visual merchandise assistant in the Merry Hill store in the West Midlands. In 26 years with the retailer, she has seen the rise of online shopping and tough times for the high street.

    While some high-street rivals such as Topshop, Warehouse and Debenhams have gone almost exclusively online, H&M is still up against an ever-evolving set of competitors led by its leading rival Inditex, which owns Zara, and 20 years ago took H&M’s place to become the world’s biggest fashion retailer.

    Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say H&M’s main brand has moved slightly upmarket with its prices now just above Next in the UK, but still below Asos and Zara, as it has aimed to improve the quality of its items and improve its fashion credentials, partly in response to hefty competition from fast-growing online rivals.

    O’Rourke says the answer for H&M lies in making sure it is offering affordable, fashionable and sustainable choices.

    “It’s not about being the cheapest. It’s about being the best value for money,” she says.

    “There are things that always shake up this industry, that’s the nature of fashion. It’s ever evolving, it’s ever changing. I’m a firm believer that competition is good, because I think the customer is the sort of ultimate, let’s say, CEO, and they will decide what’s right.”

    With fashion now facing competition not just from online sellers but other spending options – from phones to gigs and streaming services – the H&M group has been weeding out less profitable stores with the closure of a net 152 last year, two-thirds of which were its eponymous brand. It has expanded its more upmarket Arket and Cos fascias around the world, while its Monki label is now only sold online.

    In the UK, the main H&M brand has opened three new stores in the past year, in Stirling and Northampton as well as Brighton, and updated six, including London’s High Street Kensington, Portsmouth and Lincoln.

    O’Rourke admits that high business rates and increased costs of employment “makes it challenging” to operate physical shops in the UK.

    “We remain agile … first and foremost, it’s about minimising the impact to our customers and to our colleagues. It’s really about finding ways to be more efficient,” she says. “We’ve been here 50 years. We want to be here for the next 50 years.”

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  • Friendship fraud: warnings of rise in ‘insidious’ scam targeting older people | Scams

    Friendship fraud: warnings of rise in ‘insidious’ scam targeting older people | Scams

    As you have got older, retirement has left you with more time on your hands. Loneliness has set in. Luckily, you have found a friend through one of the online motoring groups you are in, and a close bond has blossomed over your common interest in cars.

    But your new friend has found themselves short when it comes to paying for their university textbooks, and has asked you for £50. It’s not much, and you get on so well that you agree to pay via bank transfer.

    It will be the first of many requests for payment that the “friend” makes, all for seemingly small amounts, but which mount up as part of a structured “friendship fraud” that preys on older and vulnerable people who are in search of human contact.

    TSB is reporting a rise in scams where criminals are using social media to befriend people before defrauding them out of thousands of pounds, often over lengthy periods of time.

    The scam has many of the same characteristics as romance fraud, where victims are duped into thinking they have found a partner, and preys on older people who may have been bereaved or are isolated.

    In one case, a TSB customer lost £4,000 after befriending someone on Instagram who said they needed urgent help with medical bills. In another, someone in their late 60s spent four years talking to a scammer who said they were trying to flee an abusive family, and made 60 payments to them.

    After another pensioner made friends with someone on Facebook, they were told they had to send gift cards and money to the criminal or they would cut contact. The victim got refunded £3,000.

    Older people who are lonely or bereaved are particularly vulnerable to being targeted by ‘friendship frausters’, say experts. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

    Caroline Abrahams of the charity Age UK says the fraud is “especially horrible and insidious”.

    Older people who are lonely or bereaved are particularly vulnerable to being targeted, as criminals seek to exploit their isolation and yearning for friendship to part them from their money,” she says.

    “Being scammed in this way can have devastating consequences, with victims suffering catastrophic losses – destroying not just their finances but their health, wellbeing and capacity to trust other people.”

    What it looks like

    The first contact is often in a group on Facebook or through a direct message on Instagram. The opening messages may have been researched by the fraudster so they effectively groom the victim into thinking they have common interests.

    Steph Harrison, a fraud specialist at TSB, says the fraudsters will take some time before asking for money.

    “They can look through your posts and replicate or repeat some of that to try and build the relationship,” she says. “It’s relatively specific, which involves work on the other side.”

    Once the relationship is established, the fraudster may try to keep it going for years, seeking constant small payments for items such as groceries. Or they may ask for a large sum, such as £500 for a flight, saying that they need to immediately travel for medical reasons.

    Often they will ask for payment through gift cards as well as via bank transfer. The average amount lost by a victim is £3,100, according to TSB.

    What to do

    Once the conversation turns to money, then sever the relationship with your new online friend, says Harrison.

    If you feel that you have been scammed, report it to Report Fraud, and also talk to your bank. Try to log all interactions you have had with the criminal.

    If you suspect a parent or another older relative may be being defrauded, try to have a conversation with them about their new friendship.

    Look for gaps in the story of the new friend, and encourage your relative to question why that person is asking for money.

    Ensure your relative’s social media settings are suitable to maintain privacy so that they are not sharing any information that could later be used to manipulate them.

    Age UK has online advice about scams and can be contacted for free at 0800 169 65 65.

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  • ‘The stakes are enormous’: how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy | Global economy

    ‘The stakes are enormous’: how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy | Global economy

    In the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.

    “There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’

    Goldman Sachs told clients it expected temporary disruption. “Oil prices to decline throughout the year. But risks are skewed to the upside,” its analysts wrote. UniCredit suggested crude would be capped at about $80 a barrel. “Given its struggle for survival, the Iranian regime has an incentive to keep its response measured”.

    Three weeks later, the prospect of a drawn-out war is causing mounting economic problems. Oil prices have soared above $100 a barrel, European gas prices have doubled, volatility stalks financial markets, and consumers worldwide are bracing for a surge in living costs. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank, warn the war could have a material impact on inflation and dent global growth.

    “Market wisdom still holds that the war will end quickly, with the strait of Hormuz soon to reopen,” said Albert Edwards, a senior analyst at Société Générale. “Maybe the market is right, but in my opinion the risks are asymmetric that stagflation bursts the complacency bubble.”

    With each day, more problems are emerging. From the soaring price of petrol and diesel for motorists, to cancelled flights and the worst travel disruption since the Covid pandemic.

    The cost of fertiliser is rising sharply, hurting farmers worldwide. Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

    European heavy industry – still reeling from the 2022 energy price shock after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – are feeling the pinch in particular. Huntsman told the Guardian its Teesside plant in the north-east of England is at risk, Germany’s BASF, the world’s largest chemicals firm, is putting up prices. The cost of fertiliser – an important byproduct of the petroleum industry – is rising sharply, hurting farmers worldwide and laying the groundwork for a sharp rise in food prices.

    Iran has threatened to send oil to $200 a barrel through its fightback, targeting shipping through the narrow seaborne passage between its southern shore and Oman, as well as refineries and pipelines across the Middle East. Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan, an important Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing facility, leading analysts to warn that energy markets are now on the road to a “doomsday” scenario.

    In Washington DC, the message has been mixed. Trump has declared the war “won”, while also saying it could end “soon”, or might need to go “further” – adding a layer of uncertainty for global markets and the world economy that contrasts with the situation on the ground.

    Oil price chart

    Against this backdrop, businesses and investors are increasingly at a loss how to respond. Barclays compared the president’s comments to a 19th century-style “fog of war”, fuelling violent market swings. “A dense fog has been induced by the communication about the war: its objectives, its duration, its potential expansion and/or its off-ramps,” its analysts wrote.

    Forecasters say a prolonged conflict could resemble past global economic crises. “Surging oil and gas prices are harbingers of economic trouble,” said Ian Stewart, the chief economist in the UK at the accountancy firm Deloitte. “Higher energy prices, triggered by war or revolution in the Middle East, were important factors in western recessions in 1973, 1979 and 1990.

    “The surge in energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine collapsed Europe’s growth rate in 2023.”

    The clearest parallels, however, are with the 1980s. Back then, Ronald Reagan sent US warships to Hormuz to protect merchant shipping during the Iran-Iraq war. In an episode that became known as the “tanker war”, Washington dispatched the largest naval convoy since the second world war to keep oil and gas exports flowing.

    Four decades ago Tehran and Baghdad knew that targeting Hormuz would draw US involvement. By threatening western economic interests, they sought to gain leverage. In a case of history repeating itself, naval escorts are being mooted, after an apparent miscalculation by the Trump White House that this time would be different.

    About a fifth of global oil supplies normally pass through the strait of Hormuz. Photograph: Reuters

    About a fifth of global oil supplies pass through the 126km-long waterway, which provides the only seaborne route for vessels leaving the Gulf to the open seas beyond. Saudi Arabia, an important US ally, exports the most through the tiny passage, followed by the United Arab Emirates.

    The record release of 400m barrels of oil stockpiled by International Energy Agency member states’ has helped calm fears over shortages. But experts say supply constraints will soon bubble up, hitting crude refineries and downstream fossil fuel products worldwide.

    “There is an increasing shortage in refined products,” said Mark Dowding, a fund manager at RBC BlueBay. “China has issued an export ban on refined products as it seeks to protect domestic consumption. Other countries, including South Korea, are considering similar steps and we would not be surprised if the US follows suit.”

    In a lengthy conflict, energy supply constraints are expected to hit fossil fuel byproducts such as fertiliser. The Gulf is home to some of the world’s biggest plants, as a linchpin region for farming worldwide. About half of all global exports of urea, a commonly used fertiliser, and sulphur, a critical fertiliser ingredient, are sourced from the Middle East.

    Rising fertiliser costs will hit crop yields and drive up food prices. Photograph: David Pearson/Alamy

    Before the critical spring planting season in the northern hemisphere, analysts warn rising fertiliser costs will hit crop yields and drive up food prices – hurting low-income countries and poor households globally.

    Plastics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals are also being hit. Supplies of helium – critical to microchip production and MRI machines – have been hit by Qatar shutting down production. The Gulf state accounts for a third of global supply, as an important byproduct of LNG. Analysts say global manufacturing supply chains could be hit as a consequence – from the production of cars to electronics.

    “Fossil fuels and petrochemical feedstocks run through the deep plumbing of the modern economy,” analysts at Société Générale wrote in a note to clients. “The stakes of this conflict are enormous for the global economy.

    “If the strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked for months, disruptions to supply chains beyond energy – from food to semiconductors – will become so critical that the risk of a scenario akin to the Covid plus Russia-Ukraine shock would be hard to rule out.”

    Gulf gas field map

    Alongside higher inflation, economic growth is expected to be dragged down worldwide. Households have little room to stomach higher prices, while businesses were already laying-off workers in several countries before the Iran war began.

    Barclays estimates in a scenario of oil prices averaging $100 in 2026 – as was the case in 2022 – global growth would be 0.2 percentage points lower, at 2.8% this year, while headline inflation would be 0.7 percentage points higher, at 3.8%, than would otherwise have been the case.

    Some economists warn a prolonged war could drive oil prices above $170 a barrel, triggering a global recession. The UK, the eurozone and Japan are on watch. Experts warn a sharper sell-off in global markets could amplify the worsening outlook – exposing fractures in the financial system. Fears are growing over opaque private credit markets, while the bursting of an AI-fuelled bubble in tech valuations could spell disaster.

    Governments are exploring emergency energy support for consumers already battered by a cost of living crisis. But amid expectations for central banks to drive up interest rates in response to the inflation shock, borrowing costs are rising – potentially hitting their capacity to respond.

    Trump’s tariff threats in April last year had a much bigger impact on global financial markets. Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

    There are hopes the fallout can still be contained. Despite being rattled, the fall in global financial markets remains relatively muted. Trump’s tariff threats in April last year had a much bigger impact.

    Part of the reason is the context of the latest energy price shock. Conditions are different to 2022. Back then, the oil and gas price spikes amid Russia’s war in Ukraine added to the inflationary effects of the post-Covid economic restart. Pent-up consumers had a voracious appetite for goods and services. Governments and central banks were pushing to stimulate activity, and labour markets were tight.

    “The result today in the case of a protracted war would be an intense supply shock that runs up against much weaker demand growth,” said Kallum Pickering, the chief economist at Peel Hunt.

    After the shale gas boom, the US is largely energy-independent. Less than a tenth of its oil supplies travel through Hormuz. China has amassed vast oil stockpiles. European countries – most are net energy importers – are likely to be hit hardest by the fallout, but have pushed to diversify supplies since 2022. Renewable energy capacity has also increased.

    While there are clear parallels to the 1970s energy shocks, the world economy in 2026 has reduced its reliance on fossil fuels. Some estimates suggest energy intensity – consumption of energy per unit of economic output – has fallen by about 70% since the mid-1970s.

    The world economy has reduced its reliance on fossil fuels since the 1970s. Photograph: Julian Stratenschulte/AP

    Unlike after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, when western nations pushed to permanently cut Russian energy out of their supply chains, analysts see an end to the war in Iran allowing for a recovery.

    “The key difference is that current supply disruptions are temporary. Yes, there is plenty of uncertainty about the duration of the disruption, but ultimately, supply will return,” said Warren Patterson, the head of commodities energy strategy at the Dutch bank ING.

    However, long-term consequences are still likely.

    The world economy is more interconnected than in the 1970s. With the march of globalisation and just-in-time supply chains, global trade in goods and services has swelled from 42% of world GDP in 1980 to more than 60% by the mid-2000s. But an interdependent world, in an age of rising conflict and geopolitical tensions is a riskier one; and no basis for a sustainable economic model.

    In response, “nearshoring” and “friendshoring” have become buzzwords for multinational companies, as companies direct supply chains towards politically aligned and neighbouring countries to bolster their resilience.

    Running up to the Iran conflict, this imperative had been underscored by the bottlenecks in supply after the easing of Covid lockdowns; disruption from the Ever Given blocking the Suez canal, and Houthi rebel attacks on Red Sea shipping after the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Rising geopolitical tensions and Trump’s tariff wars have accelerated things further.

    Economists say the fragmentation of the global economy could add permanent additional costs, with potential to stoke inflation in the short term, while weighing on growth in the long term.

    Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale, said the conflict had put the world’s central banks “at the mercy of war”. “There are moments when one must come near the edge to remember why one must not go over it. We may be at one of those moments.”

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  • AI hallucinations haunt users more than job losses – Financial Times

    1. AI hallucinations haunt users more than job losses  Financial Times
    2. Who’s most optimistic about AI — and who isn’t, according to Anthropic  CNBC
    3. What 81,000 people want and don’t want from AI, Anthropic study  Euronews.com
    4. AI’s role in creative pursuits isn’t a priority for users  NewsBytes
    5. Anthropic Releases Findings from Global User Study on AI Expectations and Concerns  MLQ.ai

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