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Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SEHK:981) has released its fourth quarter 2025 earnings together with fresh first quarter 2026 guidance, giving investors new revenue, profit and margin markers to evaluate the Hong Kong listed foundry.
See our latest analysis for Semiconductor Manufacturing International.
After the fourth quarter figures and first quarter 2026 guidance, the recent 4.07% 7 day share price return and 0.79% 1 day move contrast with a 9.05% 1 month share price decline. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 54.45% and roughly 3x 3 year total shareholder return indicate that longer term momentum has been strong despite the softer year to date share price return of 6.32%.
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So with revenue expected to be flat next quarter and the share price pulling back over the past month, is Semiconductor Manufacturing International now trading below what its recent earnings justify, or is the market already counting on future growth?
With Semiconductor Manufacturing International last closing at HK$70.35 against a narrative fair value of HK$74.69, the widely followed view is that the current price sits below what the long term assumptions support.
The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$49.742 for Semiconductor Manufacturing International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$68.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$20.0.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to know what is sitting behind a higher fair value than that consensus target? The narrative leans on steady top line expansion, thicker margins and a rich future earnings multiple. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions have to line up for HK$74.69 to make sense?
Result: Fair Value of HK$74.69 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the narrative also flags risks, including reliance on Chinese demand and margin pressure from pricing and heavy capital spending, which could challenge those fair value assumptions.









