Category: 3. Business

Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.

Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.

An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else.

The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering “winding down” military operations.

The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild.

Polymarket accounts are anonymous, and it is extremely difficult to trace the owners of the crypto wallets that laid the bets.

But online crypto watchers and experts suggested that the bets bore the signs of insider trading – both because they bought their positions at market price, and because some of the accounts looked like they could belong to a single investor attempting to conceal their identity by splitting their bet between multiple wallets.

“Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” said Yorke.

Polymarket’s own rating of the probability of a ceasefire before 31 March increased significantly in the past few days, from 6% on 21 March to 24% by Monday. More than $21m is currently being wagered on this outcome.

Online prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

Timely bets laid this year suggest insiders may be using them to profit from secret information, such as Trump’s plans to kidnap the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, or the timing of US-Israel attacks on Iran.

Polymarket, whose investors include a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr, has faced criticism and regulatory scrutiny over potentially facilitating war profiteering and insider trading.

A New York Times story recently found that while the company described itself as “News 2.0” – a parallel source of information harnessing the power of prediction markets – its own social media feeds are full of falsehoods.

On several Discord channels devoted to Polymarket, users and automated bots on Monday traded tips on how to monetise the war – including arbitrage between different platforms, and following users with a history of good bets.

One post suggested users wager “YES” on “US x Iran ceasefire by March 31” because three historically profitable traders on the platform had bet “yes”, and a historically unprofitable trader had bet “no”.

Insider knowledge may not be enough to win this particular bet on Polymarket, as it requires both the US and Iran to agree that a ceasefire has been reached.

The rules for settling the bet read: “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.”

Polymarket has been approached for comment.

Two people have died after an Air Canada plane struck a fire truck while landing at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport, one of the busiest airports in the United States.

Authorities are now investigating the cause of the collision, including whether air traffic control coordination may have played a role.

Here is what we know:

What happened at LaGuardia Airport?

The CRJ-900 aircraft, operated by Jazz Aviation as Air Canada Flight AC8646 from Montreal, was landing at LaGuardia Airport in New York with 72 passengers and four crew members on board.

Minutes before the crash, a Port Authority fire truck was responding to a United Airlines flight that had reported an odour on board.

At approximately 11:40pm on Sunday (03:40 GMT on Monday), the Air Canada aircraft collided with the fire truck on the runway while landing.

Audio recordings reveal that an air traffic controller had initially cleared the truck to cross the runway, but as the Air Canada jet approached, the controller urgently tried to stop the vehicle, repeatedly shouting, “Truck One, stop, stop, stop!” in the seconds before the crash.

According to flight-tracking website Flightradar24, the aircraft struck the truck at about 39km/h (24mph). The site last recorded the plane’s data at 11:37pm on Sunday (03:37 GMT on Monday).

What caused the collision between the plane and the fire truck?

US and Canadian authorities are still investigating the incident, but early indications suggest they are focusing on air traffic control coordination.

Runway crossings require close communication between the ground controller, who manages vehicles and taxiways, and the tower controller, who manages the runway and aircraft movements. Controllers must ensure the runway is clear before giving a vehicle permission to cross.

Roughly 20 minutes after the collision, one of the controllers appeared to blame himself. “We were dealing with an emergency earlier,” the controller said. “I messed up.”

A key focus for investigators will be how air and ground traffic were managed at the time, said Mary Schiavo, a former US Department of Transportation inspector general.

“I don’t know how many wake-up calls the [US Federal Aviation Administration or FAA] needs, but this has been happening for years, and sadly, some of the most horrific air crashes in history happen on the ground at the airport,” Schiavo said.

Could staffing shortages have contributed to the LaGuardia crash?

The FAA has faced a long-running shortage of air traffic controllers, with recent estimates suggesting at least 3,000 more are needed.

However, former FAA air traffic control chief Mike McCormick said LaGuardia is “not a control tower that has perennial staffing problems”.

Still, the crash occurred during an overnight shift, when towers are typically staffed by fewer controllers. Investigators are expected to examine overtime, shift patterns and whether fatigue may have been a factor.

The incident also comes at a turbulent time for US airports more broadly.

In recent weeks, airports across the country have faced staffing shortages at the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) tied to the ongoing shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the TSA, as well as US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other agencies, and has been without funding since mid-February after Congress failed to reach a budget agreement.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that ICE agents will help support airport security operations across the country.

What is LaGuardia Airport, and how busy is it?

LaGuardia was the 19th-busiest airport in the US in 2024, with more than 16.7 million passengers departing from the airport, according to FAA data released in 2025.

It is located in the New York City borough of Queens. It primarily handles domestic flights within the US and some short international flights to Canada and the Caribbean.

Because of heavy traffic and limited runway space, LaGuardia is known for being a congested airport, where takeoffs and landings are tightly scheduled and closely coordinated by air traffic control.

What do we know about the victims?

The pilot and co-pilot who were killed were both based in Canada, as the cockpit and front section of the aircraft were destroyed in the collision.

In total, 41 passengers were taken to the hospital, along with two firefighters who were in the truck. Thirty-two people have since been released, but some passengers remain in the hospital with serious injuries.

A flight attendant was found alive outside the aircraft, still strapped into her seat. She was taken to the hospital with serious but non-life-threatening injuries.

The seat reportedly fell through a hole in the aircraft’s floor.

What were the reactions?

Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One on Monday, Trump described the crash as “terrible”, saying aviation is “a dangerous business” and that “a mistake was made”.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said his thoughts were with the victims and all those affected by the crash, adding that Canadian officials are assisting with the investigation.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said this was a “tragic collision” and thanked first responders for their quick actions, which he said helped save lives.

New York State Governor Kathy Hochul also described the incident as “heartbreaking”, saying her thoughts were with the victims, their families and all those affected.

What are the latest updates on the ground?

According to reports, the airport was closed following the crash, but security checkpoints began reopening at around 1:30pm local time (17:30 GMT).

According to a BBC report, the first plane scheduled to depart LaGuardia appears to be a Frontier flight to Atlanta at 2pm (18:00 GMT).

By Joseph Adinolfi and Christine Idzelis

The Dow is off its session highs Monday after Tehran pushed back against President Trump’s claim of a potential de-escalation of the Iran conflict

U.S. stocks surged Monday after President Trump said there had been progress in talks with Iran. Those claims later received pushback from Tehran.

Monday is shaping up to be an easy-come, easy-go day on Wall Street, with U.S. stocks off their session highs after Tehran pushed back against President Donald Trump’s claims of a potential de-escalation of the Iran conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was still up 850 points, or 1.8%, at 46,412 in recent trading, but it was well off its 2.2% surge earlier in the day. The S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq composite COMP were up 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT was up 2.47% at 2,505.

Crude-oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) also were off lows for the session seen after a Truth Social post from Trump, who said that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Trump said he also instructed the military to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

Yet Tehran’s parliament pushed back on Trump’s claims on social media, and the differences between the U.S. and Iranian characterizations of talks were spilling into public view.

“When people are optimistic, stocks move higher throughout the day,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, pointing to traders “fading” some of Trump’s initial comments around Iran progress. “When you peak early in the day, that’s people just not believing it,” he told MarketWatch.

The initial reaction from investors was relief, with stocks surging and oil and Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y falling. While the market reaction has since tempered somewhat, there still appears to be hope the conflict will ease.

Trump “seems to be interested in this idea of de-escalation” and appears to be “looking for an off-ramp,” Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said in an interview with MarketWatch. Still, “it’s probably too early to call a definitive turning point for financial markets right now,” he added. “The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable.”

“This is a very fluid situation,” Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said in an interview. “Sentiment around the markets can change on a dime.”

Iranian television reports Monday indicated there had not been any talks and that Trump had backed down after Iran threatened to carry out more attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the region. The report was attributed to a senior security official.

Dueling headlines continued to arrive, and Trump has kept on speaking with reporters. Axios reported that Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan have been passing messages between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days to try to mediate a resolution. Before boarding Air Force One to travel to Tennessee on Monday, Trump told reporters that recent talks had hit on major points of agreement, but that there would be no deal unless strict nuclear conditions were met. He said Iran was agreeing not to pursue nuclear weapons. Tehran has yet to comment on this.

Trump also pushed back against Iran’s denial of the talks during an interview with Fox Business.

Despite the chaotic news flow, Trump appeared to be following the “TACO” playbook – an acronym for “Trump always chickens out” -according to Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. First, he escalated with his weekend threat to start bombing Iranian civilian energy infrastructure, but then walked that back with his announcement Monday morning.

Such a strategy could ultimately backfire, Marko Kolanovic, a former top strategist at J.P. Morgan, said in a post on X early Monday.

Nationwide’s Hackett noted that institutional players appeared to be ferociously jumping back in Monday, after aggressively selling late last week. “It feels like today is no less rational than the end of last week,” he said. “This isn’t so much about a newfound optimism, it’s that the one-sided nature of the [recent] selling was unwarranted,” he said. “From an index perspective, we’ve held up pretty well over the past three-week period.”

The Russell 2000 index on Friday ended in a correction, and the Dow and Nasdaq were not far behind. A correction is defined as a drawdown of at least 10% from a previous record. The S&P 500 ended Friday only 6.8% off its record from late January, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Hathorn said headlines Monday reinforce the idea that the Trump administration is actively seeking an exit, even if the path to one remains unclear. The upshot is that stocks could see a solid relief rally this week, although investors will likely continue to be whipsawed by headlines, she said.

Joy Wiltermuth, Robert Schroeder, Steve Goldstein and Victor Reklaitis contributed.

-Joseph Adinolfi -Christine Idzelis

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  03-23-26 1426ET
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WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.

The crisis in the Middle East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.

Israel launched a new wave of attacks early Monday against Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump also warned the United States will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. That prompted Iran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on U.S. and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets.

Trump is facing increasing pressure at home to secure the strait as oil prices soar.

One major fear is that the war could knock out oil and gas production in the Middle East for a long time, which would mean high prices could last a while and cause inflation to rip higher around the world. The U.S. stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from past conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long.

Iran on Monday renewed strikes on its Gulf neighbors and threatened to start hitting their power plants.

“The situation is very severe,” Birol said in Australia.

WATCH: Trump claims U.S. and Iran are holding talks, Iran wants ‘to make a deal’

The oil crises of 1973 and 1979, he said, lost together 10 million barrels per day, causing “major economic problems around the world, the recessions. And today, only as of today, we lost 11 million barrels per day — so more than two major oil shocks put together.”

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, the gas markets, especially in Europe, “lost about 75 billion cubic meters, 75BCM. And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140BCM, almost twice (as much).”

Birol said 40 energy assets in nine countries across the region were “severely or very severely damaged.”

“Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemical, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium — their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy,” he said.

He said the International Energy Agency, “in order to comfort the markets,” earlier released 400 million barrels of oil, “which is historic. We have never released so much oil to the markets. … The single most important solution to this problem is opening up the Hormuz Strait as things stand now.”

The official added that he was consulting with governments in Europe, Asia, North America and the Middle East about the prospect of releasing further stockpiled oil.

“We will see, we will look at the markets,” he said. “If it is necessary, of course, we will do it, but we will look at the conditions, we will analyze, assess the market and discuss with our member countries.”

___

AP writer Foster Klug contributed to this report from Tokyo.